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G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com Morgan Stanley's Research Group say's Expect 1 Billion EV's on roads by 2050! No matter how one feels about ICE or EV's the market is in flux and the strain is going to be felt by the financially weak auto companies and auto suppliers. Morgan Stanley's Research group predicts that many existing part suppliers could be replaced by new startups. The story on another web site has the following 3 interesting quotes: “We have modelled the global car fleet out to 2050. We see global car sales growing by 50% to over 130 million a year, and expect battery electric vehicles to make up 80% of global sales by 2050. Looking at the global passenger car fleet as a whole, BEVs make up 7% of a growing fleet by 2030 in our base case, rising to 24% by 2040 and 57% by 2050.” “For the OEM business model , BEVs are a game changer. Up to 50% of the value of the car could migrate from mechanical to electrical systems and electronics, and this transfer of power could challenge OEMs’ competitive position, branding and pricing. Our modelling of an illustrative OEM transition from ICE to BEV drivetrain suggests that price and volume pressures could push down ICE profitability sharply from 2021, as new BEV products cannibalise sales and pricing power, with potential for losses from 2028. BEV losses peak in our model in 2023 before production ramps on new model launches. The range of profitability outcomes is wide.” “Margin pressure is likely to be passed down the supply chain. Moreover, OEM suppliers for the powertrain, transmission and fuel systems face loss of content – much of the electrical / electronic systems in an BEV could be supplied by new competitors. On the other hand, technology change and outsourcing are typically opportunities for OEM suppliers.” With the German auto companies spending billions over the next few years on EV auto's, the world is in for a rapid change of transportation. Are you ready? electrek
