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G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com China sets 2030 as the end of ICE Auto's Country Wide China has chosen to lead the world rather than follow the first industrial revolution by not only holding themselves accountable to the Paris Accord on Climate Change, but to ban all sales of ICE Auto's starting in 2030. This mean that 2029 will be the last year one can buy a petrol powered auto in China. Now this covers a wide range as China says this will be applied to cars, trucks, SUV's, CUV's, Motorcycles, Mopeds, transport trucks, buses, etc. This has geopolitical and business economic muscle written all over it and as such will see over the next 12 years a big change happen at companies. This also speaks big of China and their massive mineral deposit control they have on items such as Lithium, cobalt, etc. Honda has announced this weekend that the market for their newest EV will be China first before the US or any place else. This new EV auto will go on sale some time in 2018. Many other auto companies have paired up with Chinese auto companies to build and supply the local market with EV's. VW is now going to roll out their first mass produced EV in China first followed by Europe and the US then onto the rest of the world as regional support grows. Paris and the UK have stated 2040 as the start of banning ICE auto's from sale which China is doing 10 years sooner. It would appear that as has been stated before, not if but when it happens, it will be a monumental shift in the market. Auto replacing the Horse was no different in being a huge change for humans. Supporting Percentage of EV sales Norway already has a 29% share of electric cars sales; Netherlands - 6.4%; Sweden - 3.4%; China, France, UK - 1.5% (each); U.S. - 1.4%. News Story 1 News Story 2 Blog Story 1
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G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com Magna Powertrain Building options for EV's Around the World Magna has started off by showing Tesla they can build a superior power train and why 3 motors is better than 2 in that you gain torque vectoring that allows less HP and Torque to accelerate a car even faster. So just how does a Magna powertrain Model S hit 0 to 60 faster than 2.3 seconds in the Model S P100D? Torque Vectoring. Just so people can understand, the P100D Tesla S is a 762 HP monster. Magna yanked the power train and replaced the dual motor powertrain with their triple motor power train. This is three motors each rated at 188 HP for a total of 564 HP. Two motors are in the rear, one on each wheel and the third is in the front. Magna is clear in their press releases that they are not interested in the dragslip but in giving the safest most controlled drive system for the auto industry. As such, we will see this come out in the upcoming Volvo and Audi EV's. Both have signed on to use the Magna Powertrain "Highly Integrated eDrive System". This package integrates the inverter, gearbox and the 140 kW motor into a single package. Why should one care about Torque Vectoring? Controlled turns and movement at speed. That is right, with Torque Vectoring (T.V.), one is able to maintain speed without slowing down by overdriving the outside wheel. This T.V. allows the car to align itself turning strongly than just normal steering would allow defying inertial forces that would drag normal auto's off the road. Faster, Stronger and superior to any ICE setup according to the company. This powertrain is being matched up with a 140 kWh battery pack which depending on the style of auto it is put into will give anywhere from 300 to 400+ miles range. Competitors to this is Bosch who is also building a EV Powertrain solution that covers from 1 to 4 motors depending on the performance once wants which will compete with Magna's 1 to 4 motors powertrain solution. Since Magna has signed with both Volvo and Audi as their EV powertrain supplier, you can see that especially for Audi, we are probably seeing their new Quattro Ultra All-Wheel Drive System. Interesting note is that Magna has signed with FCA to supply the new EV powertrain for the Alfa product line. Magna Powertrain
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G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com Morgan Stanley's Research Group say's Expect 1 Billion EV's on roads by 2050! No matter how one feels about ICE or EV's the market is in flux and the strain is going to be felt by the financially weak auto companies and auto suppliers. Morgan Stanley's Research group predicts that many existing part suppliers could be replaced by new startups. The story on another web site has the following 3 interesting quotes: “We have modelled the global car fleet out to 2050. We see global car sales growing by 50% to over 130 million a year, and expect battery electric vehicles to make up 80% of global sales by 2050. Looking at the global passenger car fleet as a whole, BEVs make up 7% of a growing fleet by 2030 in our base case, rising to 24% by 2040 and 57% by 2050.” “For the OEM business model , BEVs are a game changer. Up to 50% of the value of the car could migrate from mechanical to electrical systems and electronics, and this transfer of power could challenge OEMs’ competitive position, branding and pricing. Our modelling of an illustrative OEM transition from ICE to BEV drivetrain suggests that price and volume pressures could push down ICE profitability sharply from 2021, as new BEV products cannibalise sales and pricing power, with potential for losses from 2028. BEV losses peak in our model in 2023 before production ramps on new model launches. The range of profitability outcomes is wide.” “Margin pressure is likely to be passed down the supply chain. Moreover, OEM suppliers for the powertrain, transmission and fuel systems face loss of content – much of the electrical / electronic systems in an BEV could be supplied by new competitors. On the other hand, technology change and outsourcing are typically opportunities for OEM suppliers.” With the German auto companies spending billions over the next few years on EV auto's, the world is in for a rapid change of transportation. Are you ready? electrek
