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Bob Lutz Sees A Grim Future For the Automobile
William Maley posted an article in Automotive Industry
Whenever Bob Lutz speaks, many people tend to listen as he a number of years of being in the automotive industry under his belt. Recently, Lutz wrote an editorial for Automotive News' Redesigning the Industry where he predicts we are “approaching the end of the automotive era,” within the next 20 years. “The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn’t matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation,” Lutz wrote. Lutz sees governments pushing for a 'no-human-drivers' mandate when it becomes clear that self-driving vehicles are much safer than vehicles operated by humans. "The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents." This according to Lutz will have catastrophic effects for the industry. Most of the driverless pods will be owned, operated and branded as "Uber or Lyft or who-ever else is competing in the market." Many automakers will be forced out of the business as people turn to sharing and not owning a vehicle. Some will remain, but acting as a supplier. Other parts of the business such as dealers, repair shops, and enthusiast magazines will fade away. "The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years." We're not fully on board with Lutz's train of thought. The time frame is a bit too soon as we are still on the ground floor when it comes to autonomous technology and the numerous hurdles that still need to be overcome. Plus, how will this driverless pod system work in rural areas? That isn't to say it will not happen. Elements of Lutz's viewpoint are coming into focus. For example, Waymo will not have any way for a human to intervene in emergency situations. We highly recommend reading this piece. Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required)- 60 comments
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Whenever Bob Lutz speaks, many people tend to listen as he a number of years of being in the automotive industry under his belt. Recently, Lutz wrote an editorial for Automotive News' Redesigning the Industry where he predicts we are “approaching the end of the automotive era,” within the next 20 years. “The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you’ll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn’t matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation,” Lutz wrote. Lutz sees governments pushing for a 'no-human-drivers' mandate when it becomes clear that self-driving vehicles are much safer than vehicles operated by humans. "The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents." This according to Lutz will have catastrophic effects for the industry. Most of the driverless pods will be owned, operated and branded as "Uber or Lyft or who-ever else is competing in the market." Many automakers will be forced out of the business as people turn to sharing and not owning a vehicle. Some will remain, but acting as a supplier. Other parts of the business such as dealers, repair shops, and enthusiast magazines will fade away. "The era of the human-driven automobile, its repair facilities, its dealerships, the media surrounding it — all will be gone in 20 years." We're not fully on board with Lutz's train of thought. The time frame is a bit too soon as we are still on the ground floor when it comes to autonomous technology and the numerous hurdles that still need to be overcome. Plus, how will this driverless pod system work in rural areas? That isn't to say it will not happen. Elements of Lutz's viewpoint are coming into focus. For example, Waymo will not have any way for a human to intervene in emergency situations. We highly recommend reading this piece. Source: Automotive News (Subscription Required) View full article
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Found this great write up by Bob Lutz Industry auto Czar who thinks Tesla is Doomed and he gives some damn straight points to back his editorial up. 1) Distribution, Factory car shops are very expensive and Elen Musks Factory sales shop experience at Porsche ate through millions. So far this is not a sustainable model for auto's. 2) Once OEM existing auto companies get serious about long distant EV's they will eat up Tesla. Bolt is expected to be the first warning shot. 3) Cheap gas is not helping Tesla. 4) Auto companies who invested in Tesla did so to get R&D done without losing billions. Now many have left Tesla to go to work for the bigger auto companies like Toyota, GM, Ford, etc. Bob says he likes Elon and knows history is full of Great Products run by Brilliant people that died. Full Story Here!
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Bob Lutz: Plug-In Tech Is Better Suited For Larger Vehicles
William Maley posted an article in Automotive Industry
By William Maley Staff Writer - CheersandGears.com January 17, 2013 Former General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz has been know to speak his mind. At the Detroit Auto Show this week, Lutz told Autocar that he thinks that the technology in the Chevrolet Volt should have been put into a larger vehicle first. “Frankly, unless that customer is philosophically, religiously or economically affiliated to buying an electric vehicle, then they can’t be convinced. The first two types of buyer will buy whatever’s built, but the latter is a harder case. The obvious answer is to electrify as big a vehicle as you can, because that’s where the fuel and running cost savings make the most sense," Lutz said. Lutz goes onto say, “If I had my time again at GM then I would have started with the Cadillac Escalade for the range-extender technology, and brought the Volt in later. The more gas-guzzling the vehicle, the more economic sense of electrifying it. Car companies need to get their minds on that: electrifying an Opel Corsa that uses virtually no fuel anyway and then lumping a huge premium on it to cover the battery costs is nonsensical. Why bother? It uses virtually no fuel anyway." Lutz is part of a new company called VIA Motors which takes GM full-size trucks, SUVs, and Vans, and converts them into plug-in hybrid vehicles. Its first vehicle is due out sometime in 2013. Source: Autocar William Maley is a staff writer for Cheers & Gears. He can be reached at [email protected] or you can follow him on twitter at @realmudmonster. -
By William Maley Staff Writer - CheersandGears.com January 17, 2013 Former General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz has been know to speak his mind. At the Detroit Auto Show this week, Lutz told Autocar that he thinks that the technology in the Chevrolet Volt should have been put into a larger vehicle first. “Frankly, unless that customer is philosophically, religiously or economically affiliated to buying an electric vehicle, then they can’t be convinced. The first two types of buyer will buy whatever’s built, but the latter is a harder case. The obvious answer is to electrify as big a vehicle as you can, because that’s where the fuel and running cost savings make the most sense," Lutz said. Lutz goes onto say, “If I had my time again at GM then I would have started with the Cadillac Escalade for the range-extender technology, and brought the Volt in later. The more gas-guzzling the vehicle, the more economic sense of electrifying it. Car companies need to get their minds on that: electrifying an Opel Corsa that uses virtually no fuel anyway and then lumping a huge premium on it to cover the battery costs is nonsensical. Why bother? It uses virtually no fuel anyway." Lutz is part of a new company called VIA Motors which takes GM full-size trucks, SUVs, and Vans, and converts them into plug-in hybrid vehicles. Its first vehicle is due out sometime in 2013. Source: Autocar William Maley is a staff writer for Cheers & Gears. He can be reached at [email protected] or you can follow him on twitter at @realmudmonster. View full article
