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G. David Felt - Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.cheersandgears.com The Internal Combustion Engine, the Beginning of the End 2017 Washington Post Story The Washington Post wrote a story about why 2017 is the official start to the end for ICE or Internal Combustion Engine auto's. They did state that it could take 50 years before the last of ICE Auto's are no longer being sold, but just like 1876 when Niklaus Otto invented the internal combustion engine and by 1915 it was clear that out of electric, steam, and gas engines, gas was the clear winner for the next 100 years, it would seem we are looking at the dawn of the EV auto with 2017. Why would people think this you might ask, well as posted in the Washington Post Story as well as reported here at Cheers and Gears and other news outlets we really have 3 core reasons: Chevrolet Bolt and GM's announcement of 20 new EV autos by 2023. Other OEMS have also announced the plans to move to all EV auto product lines. GM was the first established player to launch a long range EV in the market. Tesla's Model 3 mass market EV Auto, yes it is stuck in production hell, but they have captured 512,000 pre-orders as of this 3rd week of Oct. 2017. Many auto companies would love to have pre-orders for a product like this. China, flexing it's muscle with the announcement that they are planning on killing all sales of ICE auto's by as early as 2030. The worlds largest auto market at 31 million auto's has some weight in how they change market dynamics. Yes the story goes on to point out that EV auto sales in North America account for less than 1% for 2017 and yet China says EV auto sales must be 9% by the end of 2018 and rises after that each year aggressively. Thus if an established auto company wants to survive and play in the global market, they have to change their global product lineup. Barclays analysis of Oil Demand is that by 2025 it could be slashed by 3.5 million barrels per day worldwide. If EV auto's reach a penetration of 33%, oil demand will reduce globally by 9 million barrels per day by 2040. Bloomberg puts the number of reduction at 8 million barrels per day by 2040 which they state is more than the current combined production of Iran and Iraq together. The next 5 years to 15 years will really show how fast things will change but most oil industry experts think 15 years will have minimal change on per barrel a day, then things will begin to drop. This could explain oil companies big push in the last 18 months into electric charging companies and infrastructure. Story state something that was posted earlier this month about Shell already adapting by adding charging points at their stations and pushing owners to remodel to have a convenience store, rest area, food, etc. Here they say their stations will adapt or close. The story also points out the effect of converting just 3 million auto sales in the US alone by the Sierra Club. Clearly people are looking to a cleaner future for themselves and their children: 6.5 million tons, or 13 billion pounds, of GHGs reduced annually. 35.6 million barrels of petroleum reduced annually, creating less of a dependency on foreign oil, further boosting demand on domestic electricity and keeping oil money spent in-state. 164.5 million pounds of carbon monoxide reduced annually. 11 million pounds of nitrogen oxides reduced annually, harmful to respiratory health and creates smog. 1 million pounds of particulate matter reduced annually. 9 million pounds of volatile organic compounds reduced annually.
