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Everything posted by Drew Dowdell
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No one is going overlanding in a Santa Cruz, the hardware under there is still car based. This is for people who walk paved Rails-to-Trails paths at Ohiopyle and call it hiking.
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Exactly! I keep seeing the Zephyr all over my Facebook feed and people going gaga over it.... I'm here like "It's just a refreshed Fusion/MKZ". And really, the only difference in the profile is that instead of flipping the end of the top of the trunk up, they flicked it down so it's "like an A7"... but that's where the similarity to the Audi ends.
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I got the down low torque though. and my car isn’t listed for sale nor would it be listed as “power everything”.
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Thought of the day - If you're listing a car with the 4100 engine.. you really can't say "power everything" can you...?
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If it’s a conventional filter, sure, but there nothing indicating that it is aside from the outside shape. Even still, regular synthetic motor oil is good for up to 12,000 miles in a gas engine. This would not have the heat nor the pollution from the combustion process to deal with. So, conservatively, double the life of the oil and filter right there. Or transmission fluid... that runs 100k through a filter these days just fine. There are plenty of examples out there of oils lasting that long when not in an engine.
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So much for the theory that economies of scale will be seen soon in BEVs.
Drew Dowdell replied to balthazar's topic in Tesla
No, we don’t agree. Because with the weather I can see when a hurricane is on its way. I don’t know exactly where it will land but I know it’s coming. -
So much for the theory that economies of scale will be seen soon in BEVs.
Drew Dowdell replied to balthazar's topic in Tesla
There is just enough competition out there that someone will do it. Once all the biggies get into it, someone will break. Of the major manufacturers, I would guess Hyundai/Kia will be the first to do it as they like being a disrupter. If they can do this as a way to further undermine Toyota/Honda who are way behind everyone else (and in Honda's case, relying on GM for technology) they'll take that shot in a heartbeat. If not them, it will be Ford. GM has taken the stance of everything they make being "premium" and "premium price". They aren't even interested in catering to the lower end of the market even in ICE vehicles. Take away the Spark which no one buys, their lowest priced vehicle is the Trailblazer in base trim... but that's a catalog only model... nearly all of them are LT or higher trim starting at $25k. Then so is the weather report. If the only weather report you believe is the raindrops on your head, there's not much I can do to help you. You see, I also have an app on my phone that shows me the radar and wind direction in Ohio so that I know that rain is still coming my way. Right now, the majority of the cost of BEVs is in the batteries. Electric motors are relatively cheap compared to a turbo V6 or something like that. They're substantially easier to manufacture. Will a 2025 Silverado BEV be cheaper than a 2021 Silverado? Of course not and neither will the ICE 2025 Silverado. But just like hybrids the cost difference will diminish until they reach an inflection point. There will also be a period of time where manufacturers will hold prices higher because they can. Just like Tesla working what you don't pay in gasoline into their monthly payment, the other manufacturers will "sell" that aspect as part of the advantage of going electric. And they'll be able to do that until one of the manufacturers breaks in order to try and corner the market as I mentioned above. Again... There will come a time when the manufacturers stop spending money on developing these parts. A few manufacturers have already stated they're not creating any new ICE engine families, what they have now it going to be it for the next 15 or so years. They'll do tweaks where they need to, maybe pair a smaller engine up with an electric motor, but I think we have already seen our last all-new V8 from a major manufacturer. GM and Ford may each squeak out one more big revision of their current V8s, but it won't be a clean-sheet design. V6es won't be far behind... with the current trend in turbo-charged 4-cylinders, there is zero reason for a manufacturer to invest in a new clean-sheet V6. The newest Jeep I6 could be the last new 6 from a major manufacturer that we see. GM's latest engine developments were the I-3s... GM probably already developed their last V6. I don't expect any more revisions to the 3.6. The 3.0TT will live for a while in Cadillacs, but the Lambdas will go Turbo-4 and I4 Hybrid next go-round. The 3.6 will live on in the Canyon/Colorado for a while until they put the 2.7T in there instead, probably at the next full-redesign. As always... follow the money.... and the money flowing to ICE engine development is trying up. -
It's gear oil like you would find in a rear differential... the service life for rear diff oil is between 30,000 and 150,000 miles depending on the manufacturer and driving style. For an F-150 for example, normal duty without frequent towing has a cycle of 150,000 miles. If you tow all summer, they recommend every 30,000. With an oil filter, that service interval will be very long... much longer than the length of time the initial leasees will have the vehicle.
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Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
My friend who will be my riding bud has an older Ducati Streetfighter... he likes it but he complains that getting anything done to it is expensive. I'm sure I'm going to be in the same boat with a BMW, but at least being aircooled, shaft drive, boxer the amount of maintenance it will need is lower. Of your list, I like the Triumph the best, but the Yamaha would probably be lowest cost of ownership. I looked at the Yamaha XSR900 very early on in my search (years ago) because it reminded me of my dual-sport I had in my teens, but it was uncomfortably too tall for me. -
So much for the theory that economies of scale will be seen soon in BEVs.
Drew Dowdell replied to balthazar's topic in Tesla
Supply down + Demand Up = higher prices.... not that hard. Prices for nearly everything are going up. It has nothing to do with BEVs. It has to do with everything from lumber to microchips being in short supply. Also... prices for used and new gasoline powered vehicles is going up too, so at worst, BEVs are just keeping pace with the industry as a whole. Furthermore, no one gave a date as to when the cost of BEVs would dip below ICEs, so calling that misinformation is substantially premature. The big, experienced manufacturers like GM and MB have been awoken like a sleeping dragon and the new BEV platforms coming from them are going to be serious entries, not just an electric motor thrown in one of their gasser models with a bunch of laptop batteries in the trunk. As of about 3 years ago, they all started taking BEVs seriously. There will be economies of scale as the cells of a Silverado don't need to be any different in composition than the cells in a Bolt... the only difference will be quantity. GM will no longer need to build 197 different powertrain combinations, it will be reduced to 10 (if memory serves, it's somewhere in that ballpark of a delta in powertrains). There will no longer be a need for complex 10-speed transmissions. No AWD systems. No exhaust systems. There won't be complex electro-mechanical systems to turn cylinders on and off while driving. There won't be turbo-chargers. There won't be those electronic shutters that close a grille at speed. All of that stuff listed that needs to be engineered and re-engineered every 5 - 7 years will go away. None of that is in place today and no one claimed it would be in place by today, but you have the combined industrial might of GM, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Hyundai, Telsa, Panasonic, Samsung, LG, and others working on it. -
Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
Yeah, that's probably true for most vehicles. The big GM (and probably Ford and Chrysler) V8s are probably the exceptions as they just loaf along at 1500 RPM at 65 and dropping below that would lug them. This BMW doesn't mind being lugged... just twist and go. -
Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
I'm still being very gentle on it as I'm getting comfortable with it, but yeah, it's just like that. I've read reviews where the reviewer wishes 6th gear was a bit taller, but I haven't been at 6th gear speed long enough to comment on that yet. I'm just doing all back roads to work and back, and haven't gotten it over 60mph yet. Still pretty nervous. -
Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
Only have ridden it 3 times so far because of the weather here, but I'm getting more comfortable with it. The clutch is heavy, I'm going to need to do hand exercises or just ride it a heck of a lot more to work up the muscles in my left hand. I brought it to work this morning so I can drop it off for state inspection. Thinking back, this is the biggest bike I think I've ridden, maybe not the heaviest, but certainly the largest engine and most powerful. It's a lot of bike and I'm still getting used to it. One of the nicest things that makes me glad I bought it is that once I'm rolling, it doesn't really matter what gear I'm in, I can just roll on the throttle and go without having to downshift. Love the torque. -
Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
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Item: BMW R nine T Scrambler
Drew Dowdell replied to Drew Dowdell's topic in Member's Rides Showcase
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Name: BMW R nine T Scrambler Category: Vehicles Date Added: 2024-05-19 Submitter: Drew Dowdell BMW R nine T Scrambler
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Okay. So I’m checked into my hotel in Huntsville Al. As I was heading south through West Virginia I was amazed by the number of huge gooseneck camper trailers on the interstate. And initially they all seemed to be being pulled by the big Rams. And all of the pull vehicles looked close to brand new. So I started counting. But I didn’t want to count all goosenecks, working goosenecks are a common thing. I was curious about what people are buying to use for purely recreational activities. All the truck companies talk about how they make the best work truck, but what do people buy for play? So here’s what the totals represent. It had to be a camper or a very large boat that would be at the top end for a 150/1500 series. If the camper wasn’t a gooseneck, it had to be so big the next step up was gooseneck. I didn’t count any toy trailers since it’s impossible to tell if it has a classic car in it or a bunch of tools. So, biggest campers possible or biggest boats. One of the things that caught my attention was initially there were no Fords. It was dominated by Ram the entire time and then Chevy and GMC in the mix at about the ratio you’d expect. The bright green Porsche Cayenne was interesting, it was pulling a huge Airstream. It has a 7,700 lbs tow rating, so most 150/1500 trucks would have handled it, but it definitely was an interesting way for the owner to get the most combined bang for the most combined bucks. Airstreams are physically big but light for their size, and modern ones are loaded with luxury touches. Clearly this person was going glamping instead of camping. The poor Nissan was overloaded and had its nose pointing to the sky. It wasn’t even the XD version. Each of Ford, Chevy, and GMC fielded one entry each of their biggest SUVs pulling a land barge. Both Toyotas were pulling big boats. Again, clearly in the 150/1500 range but pushing the upper end of their capabilities. While most of the brands were recent models, there was one early 90s Ford F-250/350 dually in pristine condition doing its thing with a gooseneck camper. There was also a similar vintage Dodge Ram 2500 barely holding it together. People buy these huge trailers to be comfortable when camping and it’s interesting that they’re also picking a Ram to go with it in large numbers.* *Unofficial and completely unscientific survey
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I’m updating the totals as I roll south. About another 2 hours to go.
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I’ll ‘splain more when I’m not driving Ram - 34 GM -21, 1 Yukon xl, 1 suburban Ford-17, 1 excursion Porsche-1 Nissan-1 toyota - 2 the model notes are just notes and they are included in the totals.
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Yeah, that last bit is true. Part of the reason drug trials take so long is that it is hard to find people willing to try a new drug. Researchers have to beg and bribe people to do it. With the Covid-19 vaccine they had 100s of thousands of volunteers. Additionally, the FDA cleared everyone’s Outlook calendar and made these drugs top priority for review, so that greatly accelerated the process. Normally it’s difficult to get approvals done because it’s hard to get everyone in a room together. Covid gave everyone substantial motivation to get this done.
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The AZ vaccine doesn't use raw mRNA like Pfizer and Moderna. The AZ vaccine (And J&J) use an actual virus (adenovirus) to deliver DNA instead of RNA. That DNA is then used to make the mRNA The AZ vaccine hasn't been approved for use in the US because..... it never passed the Phase 3 clinical trials. Whether or not it will in the future, we don't know... but pointing at the AZ vaccine and saying "This isn't safe, the system is broken" when the system prevented it from being released to the public in the first place seems a bit.... off?
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Love it!