smk4565

I know the Bolt is coming back, I was only questioning whether it will be under $30k when it comes back. And I doubt the Equinox comes in at $30k, Mary Bara is the one that said they can't make a profit on an EV that costs under $40,000. I agree scale will help GM, assuming, they can scale all that up, the Ultium ramp up has been pretty slow, and the Ultium platform's battery tech is behind what Tesla already has and it's heavy. And GM isn't alone in that, Ford and Mercedes EVs are too heavy also. Mercedes EQE 500 is 5,670 lbs, Cadillac Lyric AWD is 5,810 lbs, and the larger Tesla Model X is 5,185 lbs. The Lyric needs about a 600 lb weight loss, and that is in the Ultium platform. GM/Honda will probably have the scale to drill some cost out, but I don't see how Nissan does, or a small company like Mazda that doesn't even have an EV (since they killed off that compliance car they had) gets there. And I don't see how Hyundai/Kia get people to spend $50-75k on EV's when their ICE cars are more like $25-40k. They aren't even targeting their existing customers. Tesla makes more dollars of profit than GM or Ford, let alone they have the best margins out there, plus Tesla is just as much a software and energy company as they are a car company. Tesla already has mostly every other car company buying software off them for the chargers and using their charge network, won't be long before Tesla is selling Full Self Driving to other car companies at $12,000 per car and they'll have to pay Tesla for it just like they had to pay Tesla for their charge network.

Yes they all need a $30,000 EV but once the Bolt is killed off I don’t see who is going to make one outside of Tesla. The Kia Niro EV is $40,000, the Hyundai Kona EV is $35,000 and these are entry level compacts. Doesn’t really seem like a good deal and no $7500 credit for them. GM might come back with Bolt 2.0 at $30k but GM loses money on the Bolt, just like all these car companies outside of Tesla lose money on EV’s so I think the chances of affordable EV’s aren’t great. And it seems like car companies want to kill the sub $30,000 ICE cars too. And yes Elon has mad mistakes and wastes time with Twitter but at the same time his company is worth $800 billion and the other big car companies are worth about $50 billion so he must have done something right. And back to Tesla the refresh Model 3 is on sale in China and Europe now, so we should have it next year with a Model Y refresh right after. S and X do need a next generation and I would make them more mass market, 3 row SUV is a huge segment, but 1,000 hp 3 row SUV for $100k is not a big segment. Tesla wants to sell 20 million cars a year, they have to attack the sub $40,000 price tier to get there. There aren’t enough $50-100k price buyers to get that kind of volume.

What Tesla really needs is the sub $30,000 car. Because most car companies are bailing on low end cars, Toyota's North American President even said he wanted to push the average transaction price of a Toyota over $50k. Which to me sounds like throwing away half their customer base. Ford wants to get rid of the Escape to focus on high margin vehicles, because after they cut cars, they now need to cut crossovers. Mazda wants to move up market and focus on $50,000 CX-90 SUVS. The door is wide open for someone, aka Tesla to come in with a mass market car at an affordable price.

Tesla needs the Cybertruck to ramp up production because pickups are such a huge segment so are off road vehicles. And 3 row SUV is a huge segment, as Tesla goes mainstream they need a 3 row SUV that isn’t $80-90,000 which means either coming up with a new models or you take the S/X which in base model trim have 670 horsepower, and make less powerful, lower range versions, maybe single motor versions that get the price of those to like $59,000. A base Model X has more horsepower than a BMW M5, you don’t really need that much to take kids to soccer practice and go to the grocery store. The telling sign on that chart is Honda isn’t even on the board and Toyota at .5%. Long way to go. I think as EV prices keep dropping, $7500 credit at time of purchase and the public charging network will probably double in size by 2025, the flood gates open on EV sales in 2025-26. Those that are ready will win, those that aren’t will lose and some of these companies will be gone in 2030.

Maybe not revolution because supply won't be there until 2025-26 probably, but I think EV sales could double easily next year. You take $7500 off at the time of sales and that EV price looks really attractive. Plus that is $7500 less to finance (or $4k on a used car) at a 10% interest rate over 6 years or whatever the standard car loans are now. The interest savings on say a $32,500 loan vs a $40,000 loan, plus the gas savings that an EV has, makes it really compelling. I know my next car will be EV.

Tesla has won. Any car company that doesn't switch to NACS might as well close up shop and go out of business.

My Mercedes does it too, although I don’t use the feature. The Cadillac Seville STS had entry/exit mode that would move the steering column and seat up and back respectively on the 1998 model I think, I know that body style had it. Right, I remember the early 2000s Cadillac STS had it, at least I am 99% sure it did, it’s been a while since I was in once of those.

The EQB is over priced also, but it is a Mercedes-Benz, not a Kia. Kia EV6 sales are down 21% YTD through August. 12,714 units sold YTD. This was their answer to the Model Y, it's dying on the vine already in its 2nd year on the market, while the Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the world.

Yeah, hard to get excited about a 223 mile range, which could mean under 200 in harsh climates and 215 hp in a 5,000+ lb SUV at that price. I get that not even one needs 300 or 400 hp, or a 400 mile range. But if they want $56k with destination for the bare bones model, the 300 mile range, AWD model is probably $66k, add options to $70k. This car is $10k too expensive, which can be said about every EV that isn’t a Tesla. These guys have to figure out how to cut cost. I bet they could trim $1,000 off in body cladding alone.

They need to do something, I feel like Nissan has basically been dead in the water since Carlos Ghosn screwed them over. Problem is the Ariya seems allergic to sales, despite them advertising for it all the time. Right idea to go all EV in a hurry, but I am skeptical that they actually build EV's that people want.

They need to price it like that, but let's see if they do. I pulled pricing from a local Kia dealer, they have 4 EV6. So it seems Kia is just building loaded models, and then dealers have to give $10k off to get these things to move, because even at $49,100, a Tesla Model Y (with tax credits too) is a much better deal. Even the new Niro EV starts over $40k, that is more than a Cadillac CT4, CT5 or XT4 and almost as much as an XT5. I don't know this Kia strategy of pricing cars into the luxury market is going to work. Kia/Hyundai gained all this traction in the market because they gave great value, a stylish vehicle, a ton of equipment and it costs less than a Chevy, Toyota, Honda or Ford, plus has a longer warranty than any of them. But their EV's aren't value at all, so the brand identity looks like it could be lost in this transition. That EV6 is smaller than an Equinox EV that is supposed to be $30k, which it probably won't be but even at $40k, the Equinox EV is $20k under the EV6 for a bigger car.

I don't like this trend of gloss black cladding that this has, the Toyota Crown has and others have done, I think the Nissan Ariya does it too. Looks tacky and like they are trying too hard. Outside of that, I think she look and shape of this looks pretty good, and it looks very roomy in side so that should be a big benefit. Question really is what are they going to charge for this. The Telluride is so popular because you can get a fully loaded one for like $53k, and a comparable Jeep Grand Cherokee or Grand Highlander are over $60k so Kia really wins on price. If these are like $80,000, I don't know who wants to spend that on a Kia.

I don't think anyone is cross shopping GMC with Porsche or Lamborghini, but in terms of straight line speed everything can be fast and basically take away the advantage that the V12 expensive cars used to have over smaller cars that could only fit a turbo 4 or maybe a V6 into. The Hyundai Ionic 5 N has 641 hp, so the EV age means you can get small crossovers with supercar horsepower. GMC could put out a Terrain EV with 600 hp and people would say why doesn't it have 650 to beat the Hyundai, which is stupid since all these numbers are stupid, but that is where we are at. If the horsepower wars continue into EV's you'll see a Malibu or Equinox with 1,000 hp some day, which doesn't really make sense. So I hope every manufacturer does a few select crazy horsepower EV's but more importantly is who can build the affordable EV's that people will actually buy. That Ioniq 5 N is probably a $70-75,000 car, and how many people really want a $75,000 hatchback? 90% of buyers are going to look for who can give decent range with 225 hp at a $30-35,000 price point.

EV will allow them to do this. Where as you can't fit a supercharged V8 into a GMC Terrain, you can put 2 electric motors making 500 hp in there. You can put 500 hp in a Trax or a Bolt and have an EV that is like $30k after tax credits that can beat a $150,000 Corvette Z06 in a drag race. EV lets you make anything fast, which will also make the performance cars of yesterday look bad. CAFE is basically the reason small trucks are dead, the Maverick only meets CAFE because it is a hybrid. But in EV land, GM can bring back a small truck like a Maverick, have a 200 hp version, a 400 hp dual motor, an 800 hp quad motor if they want to.

I don't think there is any negative to the Inline 6 other than they are too long/wide if you try to put it in a front wheel drive car. And most car makers the past 40 years wanted to build mediocre front wheel drive cars. Unless you have a V12, nothing is going to beat inline 6 smoothness. Although shortly none of this will matter, the electric powertrain being superior to all these ICE powertrains. And Mazda is too late, an inline six 5-10 years ago maybe would have been a good idea instead of turbo 4's or to replace the Ford sourced V6s from back in the day, but they should have put that money into batteries and electric motors. Mazda probably won't be here in 10 years.

No, Mazda gives you a turbo inline six now in this class, and rear wheel drive. Far superior drivetrain.

So back to the old days of Traverse, Acadia and Enclave being the same size. Kind of creates a size gap between the Terrain and Acadia although at the same time I don't know if you really need a Blazer size SUV, or a Venza, or Passport. People either get that small SUV or go for a 3 row vehicle.

I am sure they make more than $50 per Corolla, but I was just using that as an example. Heck they might even lose money on the Century at $179k, but I assume they wouldn't sell it if they lost money on it. I get that people in Japan, or the Japanese government want a Japanese car, and that is why this exists. My point is no one outside of Japan wants a $179,000 Toyota SUV.

I find it hard to believe the make a lot of profit on anything they are selling 30-50 units a month of. Maybe on an individual car they can make $10,000 with that high price, but on 30 units, that isn't as good as selling 100,000 Corollas and making $50 profit on each one. And no one outside Japan would buy this, because they aren't buying a Toyota over a Bentley or Mercedes-Maybach or a Rolls or anything like that. Lexus has been around 30 years and never been able to really get above $100k price with the exception of the LF-A and if you option up an LC or LK, yes you can get them over $100k, but Lexus isn't out there with cars costing $200,000+ because even they couldn't sell them.

The LX has traditionally been in the 4-5k units per year in the USA, where as the GLS and Escalade are usually more like 20-30,000 and 40,000 recently for Escalade. And the GLS has 11,204 first half of of this year, but they also have 5,500 EQS SUV, so if you put them together they are at 16,700 first half of this year compared to 4500 over at Lexus. And the Century isn't a Tundra platform and engine, it is a Grand Highlander chassis and engine for $179,000. It would be like Chevrolet selling a $179,000 Traverse turbo 4-cylinder hybrid.

Have to imagine that in a few weeks we'll hear about Marriot hotels doing the same thing. Tesla is going to run the biggest "gas station" network in the country, and they are doing it on other people's real estate compared to the high priced real estate that gas stations pay for.

Couple ways to look at this, I did just read a news story about how Chinese imports to the USA are down to 15 or 16% of all imports which is the lowest it has been in 30 years or something, I forget the exact numbers, but point is, people are moving away from made in China and companies are moving away from manufacturing in China with the government doing whatever they are doing to manipulate things, covid shut downs, long shipping times, it makes the supply chain unreliable. And Mexico and Vietnam are actually the biggest gainers and are sending more goods to the US. So if Buick sales are declining in China, and people in the USA don't want Chinese built Buicks, then I can see reason to dump the brand. GM could easily rebadge the Envista and Encore GX into GMC's that are smaller/cheaper than the Terrain or the Envista could be the new Chevy Monte Carlo Crossover coupe. They can merge those models into Chevy and GMC easily and not lose much overall volume. If they are selling in China and it is profitable to have Buick in the USA then I would keep them around another 10 years and then maybe Buick will have runs its course. Final point, is the EV disruption. First off is Tesla is going to put maybe half the car brands available now out of business, between the EV side and self driving side, and they are pretty close to solving self driving, then you need less cars on the road, more fleet/robotaxi comes in to play. Some of these other companies are way behind. So in a fierce market like that, GM has to pump as many resources as possible into Chevy/Cadillac. The other aspect of the EV revolution is no longer do you need to buy the V8 luxury car to get refinement, power, good NVH, strong acceleration etc. in the ICE age, you had to buy the Cadillac DTS, Lexus LS, etc if you wanted the V8, because they couldn't fit a V8 into a Cadillac ATS or a Lexus ES or the smaller cars. You had to buy a V8 Mustang or Corvette if you want fast car, which were smaller cars but with big hoods, small interior. But with an EV you can put 500 hp into a Honda Civic size car and have the smoothness and NVH refinement of a Rolls-Royce and the acceleration of a sports car and for not a lot of money. So no longer is the Cadillac the faster, quieter, more refined car than a Buick which is better than a Chevy, it all becomes the same. The Equinox EV could be more quite, better NVH, and faster acceleration than a V8 Escalade and do it at 1/3 the price. So what is the point of Buick? The only differentiator on cars becomes the exterior style (which won't vary a ton since they will optimize for wind tunnel) and the interior materials.

They used to sell 1 million Buicks in China. In 2022 it was 677,000 down 18% and this year they are down 16% and sold 242,000 in the first half of the year, assume the second half is stronger and they hit 500k. Which GM in general has been down in China due to the all the new EV's and the price warfare over there. And Tesla has sold 624,000 units in China through August, they has 84,000 in August, if they hit 80,000 each month the rest of the year they are at 1 million units in China, and they don't even have the low cost car yet that can probably sell triple what the more expensive Model 3/Y are selling. If Buick can be a player in China, it probably makes sense to keep them, but they could be in trouble over there, and if that is the case, they are useless as a brand to GM.

The Lexus LX doesn't do that great here and this is double the money.

$170k for a FWD platform with a hybrid V6. What a ripoff, at least the old Century Sedan had a V12 and it was something special for the time. Probably should have made this EV since they are only making 3-400 a year and an EV powertrain would make it seem more futuristic, and smoother and quieter which you want from a chauffeur driving car. I guess the Japanese government and some CEOs will buy it regardless just to be seen in a Japanese car, and not a Mercedes, Bentley or Rolls.