smk4565

Chevrolet won’t sell 1 million Bolt EV’s per year through and Tesla will sell 4-5 million Model 2 globally, probably 1 million in just the USA. And Model 3 Highland is supposed to have a price cut but who knows if that is true. The Bolt at least keeps GM in the game where as I think several car companies could be bankrupt in 10 years.

I do believe in it, it will look like a mini Model Y. I think they could have a $25k base price, but paint wheels, interior upgrade and stuff will be add ons, plus destination charge and really it will be a $30k car to buy it, but then $7500 credit so back to $22,500. Then add the $15k if you want full self driving, maybe that drop that to $10k by then. But they'll get there, they want to sell 20 million cars a year, they need to sell at least 5 million of these so the price will be very low.

In a way the Chinese are already here, Polestar is owned by a Chinese company (as is Volvo) and the Polestar 2 is made in China, Polestar 3 is going to be made here. But the question is is BYD, Xpeng, Geely, etc come here. That MG Cyberster roadster is built in China by Geely, that car looks pretty sweet and it is rumored to have a $37,000 price with over 500 hp. That's a Corvette convertible at 50% the price. If stuff like that comes here I think it will sell. The sub $30k Tesla is dependent on the Mexico factory (for us, and the coming India factory for Asia) that is already under construction. That factory will be up and running by 2025, maybe it takes until 2026 to get production really ramped, but even still that is 3 years from now and that 1 vehicle alone could outsell Honda or Nissan's total volume in the USA. GM has to figure how to scale Ultium up, it is painfully slow the rate they are going. And GM was losing money on the Bolt, even with 40% cost reduction, they will probably still have to price it where the Bolt is now and then it becomes Telsa or Chevy Bolt for equal money, people will still pick the Tesla, but at GM will have an offering, I don't see Toyota, Nissan or Stellantis doing anything.

That chart seems to be going in a pretty clear direction. The only question is what brands can ramp up fast enough with compelling vehicles to meet the EV demand. And the Chinese are a big factor, the Inflation Reduction Act serves as a barrier to those Chinese EVs coming, but they are already hitting Europe and they'll come here if there aren't incentives to buy American or tariffs on the Chinese. Until the $25-30k Tesla arrives that basically becomes $20,000 car with no maintenance after tax credits. That will wipe out Corolla, Civic, Seltos, Kona, Trailblazer, Trax, Taos, Envista, Elantra, etc that are all low margin cars anyway that automakers will gladly dump. Tesla could easily sell 1-2 million of those just in the USA, 5 million worldwide. That 7% could be 25% in 2025 and then the flood gates open.

Right, you can get a Hyundai crossover that will be faster than a Mustang GT V8 and for the same money probably. The Ionic 5 N could be Corvette fast. The EV motor just has too much advantage over gas. And I would assume that in 5-6 years when we are into the next generation of these batteries it gets ever better.

The G63 is slower than a GLE63, but I get they wanted the heavy brick for comparison, but this video shows 2 things really: One is that the Range Rover is the biggest ripoff since it is the slowest, while also being the least reliable and for sure will depreciate the fastest. Second is a base Tesla Model X smokes all these, you don't even need the Plaid. These ICE cars are basically pointless now. 2024 Ford Mustang GT with all the performance upgrades is $64,000 and Car and Driver got a 4.2 second 0-60 time. Tesla Model 3 Performance after just the federal tax credit and not any state credits is about $45,000 and does it in 3.2 seconds. I've have V8 powered cars the past 20 years, the V8 is basically a dinosaur now, I know my next car will be EV, I can't imagine who will want these ICE cars in about 10 years time.

I don't think it needs to be on the high end of range if doing so is just adding tons of weight that hurts handling, braking, acceleration, efficiency, etc. You could have a 300 mile range version that would be better in every way except range than the 450 mile version, plus it would cost less. And Tesla has figured this out to some degree, a Model S dual motor is like 600 lbs less than a dual motor Mercedes EQE sedan and they are about the same size. Nor surprising the Model S has about 100 miles more range and is a full second faster 0-60, it is hauling less mass around.

The inside looks good, the exterior rear looks like a mess. But if you don't like screens, screens, screens you may not like that interior. I am not a big fan of screens galore, I hope that trend sort of ends, especially on luxury cars, and they all do screen overkill. I wonder if there will be a smaller battery, I think most people really don't need 450 mile range, so you are just paying for battery you don't need. I also wonder what the profitability of these 200 kWh battery vehicles is. Full size trucks traditionally have been cash cows since they can charge big money for a V8, and really the cost to manufacture a V8 powertrain vs a 4-cylinder powertrain probably isn't that big, maybe a thousand dollars. An Escalade or Silverado battery vs an Equinox or Bolt could be like $15,000 more cost to GM, which does eat away at that margin.

I don't think Fisker will make it, but at least they are going at it with a $50,000 SUV rather than a $150,000 sedan like Lucid tried to do in a market that doesn't buy sedans.

I agree with both articles, the EV myths are holding them back, but those are getting debunked. And charge network is growing. And model selection growing. A year ago if you wanted an EV you basically got to pick from a small crossover or a $100,000 sedan. But now there are pickups, vans, 3-row crossover like The EV9, still waiting on a coupe/convertible, but the selection of body styles is growing and prices are better better. Given all that, I think the demand for EVs could easily triple by 2025 and by then the manufacturing capacity should be there, Tesla will have Mexico and India open around then, the legacy OEMs better figure it out by then.

But the #1 reason people don't buy an EV is charge network. Tesla is obviously building more chargers, this 30,000 that hopefully they can build out in 4-5 years will help clear that charging hurdle. I still think in the 2025-26 time frame, EV sales skyrocket and ICE plunges, and anyone that bet on ICE and gas stations is in for a rude awakening.

This is good news and I hope they can build this out in the next few years and not take 10 years to do it. By the time they have 30,000 chargers, Tesla will probably have 30,000, then you have 60,000 chargers available for those brands that can use both. And I imagine any brands that can't use both will have a hard time selling cars.

A good move, they need the Bolt and consumers need cheap EV’s. If we are going all EV you can’t do that with $150,000 Lucid Air and Porsche Taycan. Need to build $30,000 EVs.

A dealership is a bad place for public charging. Maybe better than a Walmart parking lot since a dealer has a waiting room. But a restaurant/gas station/store type place makes more sense. Also a lot of dealers aren’t along highways where you need charging on a road trip. And the point of EV’s is going to the dealer less for maintenance, I don’t want to have to drive to the dealer to charge my car.

No, Mercedes is building charging sites. They only have 300 dealers that isn't enough. Plus Mercedes doesn't own those dealers so they can't build on their property. This sounds like Mercedes is going to buy 400 plots of land, install 2,500 chargers and then manage. Which is a smart move, it helps adoption of EV's and lets them make money selling electricity.

Recession is bad news for the other guys with their dealers throwing mark ups on cars, not going to be a problem for Tesla who can keep lowering prices and the Mexico built model with the tax credit could be $22,500, which if money gets tight, people will flock to a cheap car that doesn't need gas or maintenance.

They were at a 1.92 million run rate in Q2 of this year. If they don't pass 2 million in Q3, they will in Q4 for sure, as there is still expansion happening at Berlin and Austin. Probably they get to 2.5 million next year with those factories. Mexico plant opens 2025 (or 2026 if they are late) and that has a 2 million capacity. The France or Spain plant whoever wins the 2nd European factory would be 2026 or 2027, that is another 2 million. There will be either a 2nd China factory or maybe India, and rumor is another American factory or Canada. Musk wants to build 10-12 more gigafactories, let's say they build just 5 that do 1.5 million units per year (and not the 2 million unit goal), that is 7.5 million units on top of the 2.5 million they can get out of what they have now, so 10 million units a year come 2030. Tesla has goals of 20 million cars in 2030, I think that is nuts, maybe in 2040, but 10 million in 2030 is very doable, will probably only take 8 million to hit #1 as VW and Toyota are losing market share to Tesla and the Chinese. Which should be terrifying to Toyota, because Auto factories running at anything less than say 75-80% capacity start to lose money. And once Tesla takes 30% of Toyota's volume, and Toyota isn't selling 10 million cars like they did in 2019 or 8 million cars like they did in 2022, and drop down to say 5 million cars in 2030, Toyota probably has to close half their factories and shutter half their models, just to survive.

How many auto makers have charge networks outside of Tesla? And I am not talking about Electrify America or EVgo or anything like that, that any car and use. Because I don't see Ford or VW branded charge stations that are owned and operated by the manufacturer.

You are in the Tesla network or out of business in 10 years I think. And good that they are building their own charge stations too that anyone can use.

$35,000 in 2018 dollars is $42,000 today, so the Model 3 price has gone up less than inflation from that original promised amount, and the original was like 210 miles range, they are near 300 now. But we are talking about a whole new model so the Model 3 has nothing to do it it. And Tesla hasn't said a price or when the next car is available, but they did state a goal to sell 4-5 Million of them per year. So the price has to be low to hit 5 million units per year.

Mary Barra herself has said they can't make profit on EV's under $40k until maybe 2030. And they are targeting like 400k EV's next year or in 2024 whatever it is. Tesla will be at 8 million EV by 2030 easily, that will be more than GM's combined ICE and EV sales. And GM might get the EV's right and be a player, they aren't the ones that risk extinction like some of the other brands. But the Bolt is getting discontinued a the end of the year. The $25-30k Tesla depends on the Mexico factory, which Tesla will say will opening 2024, but let's say it is 2025. So once that is open the low cost car comes out. And they said it is 40% less cost to procure than a Model 3/Y.

But GM's EV ramp up isn't as fast as what Tesla will ramp up in 2024-2027. Although GM is going faster with more product than some others. It is the ones like Subaru, Nissan, Mazda that I think are going to be screwed, and probably Honda since they just want to rebadge GM EV's which could lead to a supply problem for them. And the Cox article highlights how sales are coming back, probably will see a 15.4 million sales year this year, and if there is any interest rate cut next year, I don't see why it couldn't be back to 16-17 million in 2024. And Tesla's big advantage will be the $25-30,000 car. They will be able to turn profit on a sub $30,000 EV which it seems no one else can make profit on a $40,000 EV. So Tesla can really monopolize that sub $40,000 price point, which is a huge part of the market.

I don't see problems, I see sales going to the moon! After 2 quarters this year they are where they were after 3 quarters last year. And Q2 last year the Shanghai plant was in a covid shut down, if you toss that out, it is 14 consecutive quarters of growth. The demand for EV's is growing faster than I think many OEM's predicted. Tesla will pass by VW and Toyota in 2028-2029, those sales come at the expense of someone. So the question is who all Tesla's volume comes at the expense of. I don't own their stock, nor do I really intend to buy a Tesla. But the facts are the facts, the growth is unstoppable, the margins are 4 times better than what most car companies are at. And the legacy OEM's don't make money on EVS and none of them have scale on EV's outside of BYD. Which presents another problem for Ford, VW and GM who are getting clobbered in China because BYD and Tesla are on the rise.

Last year when Tesla did not have the tax rebate and Hyundai/Kia did, Tesla still outsold them and everyone else. Also the Model Y outsells the Rav4 in the USA, and the Rav4 is way cheaper, has the Toyota brand name, strong resale, low ownership cost, etc. The Rav4 was the crossover gold standard that Ford, GM, Hyundai, Kia were never even close to outselling, Tesla came in and blew it way with ease. And the Tesla "Model 2" is going to sell 4-5 million units annually. That 1 model alone could outsell the whole Ford Motor Company. GM and Ford are trying, but I think they are going too slow. At least they are doing something though, most of the Japanese brands and Stellantis are asleep at the switch, Toyota hoping they can tap the cash reserve and play catch up, but time is running out on that. And the problem for legacy OEM isn't just scale, it is profitability, Tesla margins are nearly double Mercedes-Benz margins (best in class for legacy OEM). So how does Hyundai or Ford or GM, make a $40,000 EV with better margins than an Escalade or Navigator? They can't is the answer.

But the Tesla is the car people want, so they must not hate the styling or interior. The EV6 is smaller than a Sportage and costs double. Shocker that it doesn't sell.