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smk4565

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Everything posted by smk4565

  1. smk4565
    That is a very good question. This will be a close one, I think Malibu will die at the end of this life cycle because the mid-size sedan segment is competitive, Camry, Accord, Sonata, Optima are all strong, Subaru has loyal buyers, Nissan will stay in because they get a lot of fleet sales and have global scale. For GM to keep the Malibu competitive it will cost a lot, they won't spend that. I do think GM may keep a Spark/Sonic type car around because down at that price point $15,000ish there isn't really any strong competition, they are mostly rental fleet or pizza delivery cars or something where buyers don't demand anything, and they can build that car in South Korea or China on the cheap and maybe keep that profitable. I'd say even money odds as to which GM kills first the CT4 or Spark/Sonic. The wildcard could be introduction of an EV sedan that is like $30k if batteries get cheaper.
  2. smk4565
    Cadillac, in theory, should have the highest profit margins of any GM brand. Just for random numbers, if a Chevy has $1,000 in profit margin, a Buick/GMC $2,000 and a Cadillac $3,000, then GM should want to sell as many Cadillacs as possible because it represents the highest profit margin. Not only does Cadillac need a full line to steal sales away from other luxury makes, Cadillac needs a full line to steal sales from Chevy, Buick and GMC. Every time someone buys a Buick/GMC instead of a Cadillac (or in this case a Cadillac that doesn't exist) GM is losing potential profit. And I am talking like for like vehicle, not a Yukon Denali vs a CT4. Every Encore or Terrain sold that wasn't an XT3 is lost profit. And as a side note, GMC needs and SUV smaller than the Terrain.
  3. smk4565
    Cutting below the E-class would be like Cadillac cutting everything below Escalade. Makes no sense. Also the CLA35/GLB35 can run into the $60,000 range, they aren't so cheap. Mercedes has has 9 consecutive years of sales growth, #1 selling premium brand in the world, #1 seller of vehicles over $100k in the world. I don't think they need to have change a formula that is working.
  4. smk4565
    A/GLA are not their best sellers, E-class alone does close to the volume those 2 do combined worldwide. C and GLC outsell the A's also. Buick only has 1 product smaller than an XT4, and that is the Encore and Encore GX if you want to call that 2 products. Neither are luxurious, the Encore doesn't even have a center arm rest for the front passenger seat. Nor do Buicks have Super Cruise. I think a CT3 Cadillac would be an absolute bust, however an XT3 would sell. An XT4 is 182 inches long. There are several crossovers on market right now in the 165-170 inch long range so XT4 is much bigger than some current crossovers already on market.
  5. smk4565
    Worldwide the Mercedes A/GLA outsold the entire Cadillac brand last year. I would say Cadillac could use an XT3. Cadillac’s largest market is China, a place loaded with displacement taxes and booming with small vehicle sales. Hence why Genesis needs a GV60 more than a GV90.
  6. smk4565
    Cadillac for sure could use an XT3. Genesis really should have GV60 before they do GV90.
  7. smk4565
    GV70 they need badly, it is the biggest segment in luxury cars and they aren’t there. I am curious to see how the GV80 does. If it doesn’t do well, I have doubts that they will do a GV90 to take on the Escalade which sells strong, and X7 and GLS. The big problem for Genesis is they have no current owner buyer pool and a likely limited buyer pool of Sonata and Santa Fe drivers trading way up to G80 and GV80. So their sales have to come from conquest, and who are they conquesting with no brand image/awareness and a small dealer network?
  8. smk4565
    Very true, all of them do massive business in China and Europe as well. I remember Audi selling like 250,000 A6 alone in China a couple years ago. Audi’s Chinese sales alone are on par with Lexus’s global volume.
  9. smk4565
    VW has 3 crossovers, which is the #1 selling body style. They could use one smaller than Tiguan for sure though. Mercedes first 4 EV’s are small and compact SUV (the biggest growth segments) and Full size and mid size sedan will come next. And they are focused on Europe because of emissions regulations. They have to sell every EQ C they build in Europe to lower their fleet CO2 average. Once they scale up the EV’s they can bring more to the USA, but EV sales are like 3% of the American market, they aren’t missing out in anything right now.
  10. smk4565
    VW is planning something like 80 EV models, some of them will have to hit in the USA. 80 models is full on carpet bomb of all segments.
  11. smk4565
    Cost as far as BMW and Mercedes go here, of course they don't have volume of low priced brands. VW should do better here, but worldwide VW is the size of Ford and GM combined. VW could use another crossover or two in the USA, I think a pick up also, probably mid-size they won't get any penetration in full size market. What will be interesting is to see VW's EV push. That might make them a bigger player in the USA because they have a ton of EV's on the way across all their brands.
  12. smk4565
    BMW started using that shift lever in 2008. Why do you think Cadillac started using in on the first place? Hard to say no one in their right mind would buy a German car when Volkswagen is the largest car company in the world and the top 3 selling luxury brands in the world are Mercedes, BMW and Audi and any of them outsell the 4th place brand 3 to 1.
  13. smk4565
    I would doubt it. The bottom engine is the best seller except maybe on something like a sports car maybe pickups where people skip the work truck base engine and go up a level.
  14. smk4565
    Lincoln should have their own window switches. A Navigator or Aviator should not have a switch or turn signal stall out of a Ford Escape or Fusion. This is the problem with Lincoln, it is fancy Ford. They have done better than say 10 years ago where an MKZ and Fusion shared everything but still, for $80k on a Lincoln you should get Ford switchgear. And same goes for Maserati who uses Dodge Dart window switches on the Ghibli.
  15. smk4565
    Genesis replaced a 311 hp V6 with a 300 hp turbo 4 and replaced a 420 hp V8 with a 375 hp V6. They subtracted horsepower, will raise the price, and they think they will find success? Maybe there is a higher output model coming, maybe a hybrid is coming, but the competition already does that.
  16. smk4565
    Genesis is the low price value leader now and has no volume. Even taking out the fact that they needs crossovers, their sedans don’t even sell well. The G70 is a sales dud, big warranty and good JD Power ratings did nothing for it. I think G80 is a better effort than G70 was but I still think it comes up short of where they need to be. Likewise with GV90, it falls short.
  17. smk4565
    If it were that easy then why don't Genesis, Cadillac, Infiniti or whoever copy Mercedes and fleet sale like crazy? Mercedes has been selling E-class taxis for 40-50 years, and yet segment by segment they charge more than any Asian, Korean or American car company, and they outsell them all segment by segment. All these arguments against Mercedes, BMW or Audi with high maintenance cost, or fleet sale or whatever are meaningless. Because that has been the case for 40 years and those 3 are still the top 3. Bottom line is it comes down to product and brand image in the luxury game. What makes the Genesis brand special? Mercedes won the Formula 1 championship 6 years in a row, Audi and Porsche win Le Mans with the same frequency that people eat cheeseburgers. These guys know performance. They have legendary histories. Genesis has no grab to get people in, even if the G80 looks nice, it will probably look dated in 4 years since they mostly copy other people's past design and have an all new styling language every few years.
  18. smk4565
    It is a taxi because it is the longest lasting, most durable mid-size sedan in the world. And the diesel version gets over 40 mpg. And you seem to think that how they use it in Europe has any impact here or there. If it mattered or hurt the image of the car, then Cadillac, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, etc would have been able to compete with it, none of them could. I'd be more concerned if I were Cadillac or Genesis that my top luxury cars can't get as much status as a taxi.
  19. smk4565
    But did Genesis do enough? Even at a $10k discount to any German sedan now, the G80 is outsold by a huge margin. They have better styling, better interior and better engines on this new one, but can they keep the $10k price discount to attract buyers? G80 sells like 10k units a year, even if they double it, it is still a relatively low volume car. And I don't think they'll double it. This is sort of like when Lincoln brought back the Continental, people got excited and now 4 years later or whatever it has been the car is dead. Because Lincoln didn't do enough and the Contintenal should have been Lexus ES money at best, not where they priced it. The Continental was a dressed up Taurus a the end of the day, while a Lexus ES is a messed up Avalon. And Lexus has way better quality, reliability, resale and image than Lincoln. A Continental starts at $46k, $60k for a Reserve and $70k for Black Label. A Lexus ES starts at $39,900, $45k for the F-sport which is the top trim, and throw $10k in options on and assume $55k for the nicest one. Genesis is in similar spot as Lincoln was with Continental. The Continental wasn't a good car, it was on a crap platform with carry over engines, Ford switchgear and quality and Lincolns have atrocious resale value. So who in their right mind at Ford thought they should charge more than a Lexus ES? And the trap all these companies fall into is they look at $55k for a base 5-series or E-class and think their car is on par with those guys, when in fact they aren't even close.
  20. smk4565
    So you want to compare a base E-class vs a top trim pickup? How about a base Cadillac CT5 with no options to a loaded Toyota Avalon? Which is more luxurious? And if the E-class isn't a luxury car, and has a taxi stigma, how come Cadillac, Acura, Lexus and Infiniti can't challenge it, and Lincoln quit building sedans? The E-class has put the CTS, CT6, Q70, and Continental in the graveyard and the RLX and GS are next. E-class is so great a luxury vehicle it has survived when the rest have all failed, and the E-class has a higher price than all those competitors, even with discount pricing none of those brands could compete. G80 will be no different.
  21. smk4565
    Bad idea, waste of taxpayer money that can go to more important things. Also if did it, they would require the new car to be an EV (which are mostly too expensive, especially for people that have economic hardship) or it would have to be on a car that gets 30 or 35 mpg combined or something fuel efficient and Ford quit making their cars and has nothing fuel efficient, outside of an Escape Hybrid. We don't need more corporate welfare, auto companies were making billions in profits a couple years ago, I didn't see them giving it all away to charity or to the government to pay extra taxes.
  22. smk4565
  23. smk4565
    Exactly, they are pointless comparisons because American luxury brands have gotten to be so sad, the American car fans are left with Ram and Sierra pickups as the last best option. Here is 2019 Revenue: Volkswagen $282.9 billion on 10.34 million units Toyota $272 billion on 9.70 million units Daimler $186.6 billion on 3.34 million units Ford $156 billion on 4.90 million units Honda $141.1 billion on 4.83 million units Hyundai-Kia $137.8 billion on 7.2 million units Renault-Nissan $129.9 billion on 9.22 million units GM $110.9 billion on 7.74 million units FCA $108 billion 4.36 million units Daimler is 3rd in revenue and has the lowest volume of the bunch. I think they are doing fine.
  24. smk4565
    I haven't seen where they have split out the percentage and take rate. But I still stick to there is a price limit where a pick up truck won't sell and there are $200,000 sedans, coupes and SUVs, heck there are $400,000 options in those 3 body styles, there is not even a $100k pickup. The Detroit 3 would charge that kind of money if they could get it. G80 as I said looks nice, but sedans are slow sellers and G80 will need crazy aggressive pricing to have any chance. Where the effort needs put is GV60 and GV70 because small and compact SUVs are what sell. And one day they'll try a GV90 but again, who is going to pay $90k for a Genesis SUV? Not going to happen.
  25. smk4565
    If Ram sells more $50-70k trucks than Mercedes, which I still doubt since a very low percentage are Big Horn, then I guess Ram is beating Cadillac at the luxury game too. And as I have said earlier Mercedes sells more $100k+ vehicles than any other car brand in the world. That is the difference, yes Mercedes sells $40k vehicles but Ram sells $22,000 Promaster Citys, GMC sells $26,000 Terrains, Chevy sells $13k Sparks next to $75k Corvettes, it doesn't matter. And truck incentives are the highest in the industry, JD Power puts the avg light duty pick up with a $51,700 sticker but a $42,036 avg transaction price. The Ram and Sierra start at $29k, and those Denali and Big Horns still are stuck with the same switchgear that is in those cheaper trucks. Not luxury vehicles regardless of what they cost. And if these truck interiors were so great, why haven't Chevy, Ford and Ram put those interiors into their sedan and SUV lines and saved them from being taken over by Toyota and Honda?
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