smk4565

Ford breaks out their EV financials, Ford themselves say their EV's will lose $4.5 billion dollars this year. (or $1.125 billion per quarter) Ford has sold 46,671 EV's through Q3 at a loss of $3.375 Billion, which is actually $72,314 dollars lost per car sold. Tesla meanwhile making billions in profits on EVs:

The Mach-E is built on the GE1 platform which is a heavily reworked Ford C2 platform, which is what underpins the Escape and final generation Ford Focus, Corsair, Bronco Sport, Maverick, Edge, etc. Probably also why it is a few hundred pounds heavier than the Model Y they were trying to copy.

Kia EV9 concept debuted in November 2021. Not yet at dealers. And the Mach-E is bad product built on an ICE platform, they rushed it because Tesla was so fast on the rise. Model Y outsells the Mach-E like 20-1 worldwide so I wouldn't call the Mach-E a success story, especially since Ford loses $60,000 on each one they sell. Also Kia EV6 US sales through Q3 are 14,798, down from 15.7% from last year. Tesla Model Y US sales are 284,000. If Kia is so good, why are they getting outscored 284-14? The facts are Tesla is mopping the floor with these OEM's and I don't see how any OEM outside of BMW and Mercedes makes an easy transition to EV's because the EV's are too high priced and too low volume compared to their ICE counterparts. And even then, I don't think it will be all that easy for Mercedes or BMW, but they are lucky that Tesla isn't coming for them, Tesla is coming for the mass market.

4 years concept to production is pretty common in the industry. Also Cybertruck is an all new product with a new manufacturing process, so they had toe work all that out. Plus it is bulletproof as confirmed today by Elon that they emptied an entire Tommy Gun magazine into the side of one. And the tri-motor has over 1,000 hp making Ram TRX and the F150 Raptor R look like weak sauce.

Musk himself uses V12. I don't think he would use a product that would kill him. Also Tesla crash test ratings are best in industry if it does crash. And if Tesla's way isn't right, then whose is? Mercedes is the leader in the clubhouse with a mapped roads level 3 system that works to a max of 40 mph. That's probably another year to get it to all the states (and European countries outside of Germany) and then another year to get it up to 60-80 mph, another year to expand use cases. And everyone else tends to run 5-10 years behind the S-class in technology.

Yes it will be slow at first, Tesla said 125,000 a year next year, but I feel like that will be the run rate at the end of 2024, and the 250,000 a year might not be until 2025. But keep in mind the Silverado EV production at Orion is being delayed to late 2025, so looks like just low volume of Silverado work trucks until then and GM sold 13 Silverado EV's last quarter. Cybertruck could easily be the best selling electric pick up in 2024 even with them slowly ramping, F150 Lightning sales fell off the cliff and they cut back production on those.

No, 6 million accidents and 40,000 deaths a year is about the average for the USA. November 30th for Cybertruck!

If we had only self driving cars on the road, and no human drivers, and self driving cars led to 30,000 traffic fatalities per year, that would be an improvement over humans. There are on average 6 million car accidents per year in the USA. Zero chance in hell that self driving cars crash 6 million times per year.

I watched FSD v. 12 live and it worked except for 1 intervention. And v12 is in a testing phase, it isn't on sale, so no one is test dummy for that. v12 looks like the real deal to at least a use anywhere level 3 system since it doesn't need mapped roads. And the robo-taxi they are working on would have to be level 5, and that seems to be on the horizon for 2025-26. FSD v.11 that they currently have is in no way worth the $12,000 cost since it is level 2, a lot of cars have level 2 systems for way less money.

I watched about a half hour of Elon being driven by the car, he had to intervene 1 time during the part I watched, and it was all neighborhoods and regular traffic, none of it was on a divided highway. Yes it is experimental still, but it seems pretty close. I think Tesla gets to level 4 before Mercedes does and Tesla is going to be offering this on mainstream cars, compared to Mercedes who is doing this higher up in the luxury market.

The current FSD version 11 is level 2 and that runs on lines of code like these other systems. FSD version 12 that Elon did his livestream in the car, runs off AI and the supercomputer interpreting what the cameras see. Thus you can drop a car anywhere on an unmapped road and set a destination and the car can still drive to it. And it is hands free, vision free, driver doesn’t have to do anything. That is where Tesla leapfrogs Mercedes because FSD v12 looks like a Level 4 system and that could be out before Mercedes gets level 3 under 40 mph nationwide.

Additional food for thought, the Cadillac Lyric which has the same length and width as the EV9 (though EV9 is taller), starts at $62,000 for the AWD trim and a Luxury 3 AWD is $72,000. These are 500 hp and over 300 miles range, and come with a $7500 tax credit. The Kia is priced higher than a Cadillac even before the $7500 credit. I don't see the great value here in paying $7500 more than a Cadillac for a Kia. And biggest miss ever that the Lyric wasn't a 3-row at that size, that's actually the only reason to buy the Kia over the Cadillac.

They are very close in size, which doesn't seem to make sense, when you can just offer 1 vehicle with multiple power levels and battery pack sizes. And the Lyric is nearly as big as some 3 row SUVs but it is only a 2 row. And the Buick and GMC versions aren't even here yet, it seems like GM wants to have 6 or 7 mid-size electric SUVs all trampling on top of each other, just like the good ole days of 5 W-body sedans that are all the same with a different grille.

Not sure why anyone would want to license level 2 tech. And that is just lines of code, easily copied, and Mercedes already has level 3. Tesla is going to run off AI, having the link to the AI supercomputer is where the money will be at. Much like the money in Google, Apple, and Microsoft is in the software. And maybe Tesla won't license it to anyone, which gives Tesla a huge advantage vs others.

And how much will Tesla make off charging stations that millions of cars in the future will use? What if Tesla licenses FSD to other car companies for $12,000 per car? If they sell just 1 million FSD software packages, which is virtually all profit, to Toyota or Ford that is $12 billion in profit for Tesla. The money isn’t really in the cars, it is in the software and services. That is why Tesla is with 10-20 times more than these other car companies that are loaded with legacy costs and aren’t growing. Many car companies revenues now are worse now than they were in 2013 if you adjust for inflation.

The Equinox EV is 9 inches longer than an iD4, 4 inches longer than a Tiguan, 7 inches longer than a gas Equinox. Not sure why it is so big, but the Equinox EV is actually larger then a Toyota Venza or Ford Edge, so I’d call it a mid-size SUV. Which makes me think Chevy over sized these EV’s and Equinox and Blazer are too close.

VinFast is all speculation, but Tesla has $23 billion cash on hand, about 1/3 what VW or Toyota have but Tesla is smaller and with less debt. Tesla has a ton of growth potential, Toyota and VW have already had their peak sales years and probably neither one will get back to 10 million units a year. And most car companies have hit their volume peak, so only way to grow sales is raise prices but eventually you run out of room to do that.

I think the $30k Equinox never happens, but I think they can undercut the iD4, BZ4X and the Ioniq 5 in price.

Hyundai/Kia make about $800 profit per car. They are one of the worst car companies in the world in profit margin. Yes they make some good vehicles and are ahead of the Japanese on EV’s. But there is a Hyundai dealer near me with several Ioniq 5/6’s on the lot with sticker prices of $58,000 that are just rotting there, I think between OEM and dealer discounts they have about $10k off sticker, but that is the only way to even try to sell those. No one wants a $58,000 Hyundai midsize sedan. When the $35,000 msrp Ioniq 6 arrives then game on, but GM is going to have a sub $40,000 Equinox EV that is larger than the Ioniq 5 and gets $7500 off. I think buyers will take the Equinox at $32,500 after rebate vs $50,000 Ioniq 5.

I know the Bolt is coming back, I was only questioning whether it will be under $30k when it comes back. And I doubt the Equinox comes in at $30k, Mary Bara is the one that said they can't make a profit on an EV that costs under $40,000. I agree scale will help GM, assuming, they can scale all that up, the Ultium ramp up has been pretty slow, and the Ultium platform's battery tech is behind what Tesla already has and it's heavy. And GM isn't alone in that, Ford and Mercedes EVs are too heavy also. Mercedes EQE 500 is 5,670 lbs, Cadillac Lyric AWD is 5,810 lbs, and the larger Tesla Model X is 5,185 lbs. The Lyric needs about a 600 lb weight loss, and that is in the Ultium platform. GM/Honda will probably have the scale to drill some cost out, but I don't see how Nissan does, or a small company like Mazda that doesn't even have an EV (since they killed off that compliance car they had) gets there. And I don't see how Hyundai/Kia get people to spend $50-75k on EV's when their ICE cars are more like $25-40k. They aren't even targeting their existing customers. Tesla makes more dollars of profit than GM or Ford, let alone they have the best margins out there, plus Tesla is just as much a software and energy company as they are a car company. Tesla already has mostly every other car company buying software off them for the chargers and using their charge network, won't be long before Tesla is selling Full Self Driving to other car companies at $12,000 per car and they'll have to pay Tesla for it just like they had to pay Tesla for their charge network.

Yes they all need a $30,000 EV but once the Bolt is killed off I don’t see who is going to make one outside of Tesla. The Kia Niro EV is $40,000, the Hyundai Kona EV is $35,000 and these are entry level compacts. Doesn’t really seem like a good deal and no $7500 credit for them. GM might come back with Bolt 2.0 at $30k but GM loses money on the Bolt, just like all these car companies outside of Tesla lose money on EV’s so I think the chances of affordable EV’s aren’t great. And it seems like car companies want to kill the sub $30,000 ICE cars too. And yes Elon has mad mistakes and wastes time with Twitter but at the same time his company is worth $800 billion and the other big car companies are worth about $50 billion so he must have done something right. And back to Tesla the refresh Model 3 is on sale in China and Europe now, so we should have it next year with a Model Y refresh right after. S and X do need a next generation and I would make them more mass market, 3 row SUV is a huge segment, but 1,000 hp 3 row SUV for $100k is not a big segment. Tesla wants to sell 20 million cars a year, they have to attack the sub $40,000 price tier to get there. There aren’t enough $50-100k price buyers to get that kind of volume.

What Tesla really needs is the sub $30,000 car. Because most car companies are bailing on low end cars, Toyota's North American President even said he wanted to push the average transaction price of a Toyota over $50k. Which to me sounds like throwing away half their customer base. Ford wants to get rid of the Escape to focus on high margin vehicles, because after they cut cars, they now need to cut crossovers. Mazda wants to move up market and focus on $50,000 CX-90 SUVS. The door is wide open for someone, aka Tesla to come in with a mass market car at an affordable price.

Tesla needs the Cybertruck to ramp up production because pickups are such a huge segment so are off road vehicles. And 3 row SUV is a huge segment, as Tesla goes mainstream they need a 3 row SUV that isn’t $80-90,000 which means either coming up with a new models or you take the S/X which in base model trim have 670 horsepower, and make less powerful, lower range versions, maybe single motor versions that get the price of those to like $59,000. A base Model X has more horsepower than a BMW M5, you don’t really need that much to take kids to soccer practice and go to the grocery store. The telling sign on that chart is Honda isn’t even on the board and Toyota at .5%. Long way to go. I think as EV prices keep dropping, $7500 credit at time of purchase and the public charging network will probably double in size by 2025, the flood gates open on EV sales in 2025-26. Those that are ready will win, those that aren’t will lose and some of these companies will be gone in 2030.

Maybe not revolution because supply won't be there until 2025-26 probably, but I think EV sales could double easily next year. You take $7500 off at the time of sales and that EV price looks really attractive. Plus that is $7500 less to finance (or $4k on a used car) at a 10% interest rate over 6 years or whatever the standard car loans are now. The interest savings on say a $32,500 loan vs a $40,000 loan, plus the gas savings that an EV has, makes it really compelling. I know my next car will be EV.

Tesla has won. Any car company that doesn't switch to NACS might as well close up shop and go out of business.