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smk4565

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Everything posted by smk4565

  1. smk4565
    Camping, tailgating, over landing, and all the other “active lifestyle” stuff is what the appeal is with the Santa Cruz.
  2. smk4565
    I think this will sell well. It looks good, being a Hyundai I assume it will be competitively priced and it doesn’t have a direct competitor. There must be 20+ small to mid-size SUVs out there selling a combined millions per year. Even if 5% of that market gets this, Hyundai could sell 100k a year. And it makes sense for hauling anything dirty that you wouldn’t want to haul in the back of your Tucson or Escape.
  3. smk4565
    Mach-E and Model Y are much better. VW should have done more here, or else priced this more like the Bolt EUV, because this is more a Bolt level performance and range and interior, although it is bigger than a Bolt. Also unless you get the upper trim, the only colors are white, gray and black. I think there are better EV's than this out there now, and in a year or 2 when the market is flooded, the id4 will be way lost in the shuffle, sort of how the Passat is lost in the mid-size sedan segment because there are about 8 better options to pick from and the Passat doesn't stand out.
  4. smk4565
    10 rides per day at $10 per ride average cost is $100 per day, $36,500 per year. Double that to $70k if they can get get $20 average ride faire. Also Tesla could sell advertising on the inside of the car that is giving rides and also sell that data, so even with a $36,500 ride revenue, they could make up another $13,500 with ad sales to get them to $50k per year. The money is there if the car drives itself. Investors will pump money into Tesla because of this. When the car is self driving is the issue, and how quickly they can get there. The 2022 S-class has level 3 autonomy, with the hardware built in for level 4, it will be level 4 in this decade, if they can do it, I don't see why Tesla can't.
  5. smk4565
    They can make $50-70 grand per year on a level 5 car. Tesla will never have drivers. Uber is another company that loses money, but is worth more than Ford and GM because of the prospect of driverless cars, and then that is where the money is.
  6. smk4565
    Tesla would own the car and sell the rides. Basically they could earn $350,000 of revenue over 5 years out of a Model 3 rather than sell one for $50,000 and be one and done with the revenue stream. And most of that is revenue is all profit, they would just pay maintenance of the vehicle, setting up possibly a $250,000 profit margin on a Model 3.
  7. smk4565
    Uber had 6.9 billion rides in 2019. What if half that many get done by a driverless Tesla at $20 per ride, that is $70 billion of revenue for them. Subscription programs failed because they cost too much and the car isn’t shared. A driverless car could serve 5-10 people per day, meaning it could be cheaper to be driven around in a Model S than to buy a Chevy Trax.
  8. smk4565
    But a company like Lucid, that will be lucky to sell 10k vehicles a year, is worth more than Ford selling 4 million a year. If the Mach-E is positive influence on share price, and even if you say the Mach-E is just as impactful to investors as the Lucid Air is, then the rest of Ford Motor Company has a negative value. I think GM will dive in hard on EV's, they have said that is their mission, that is what investors want, that is what they are going to do. This will push the price of cars up, will probably reduce sales, I don't know if consumers want a flood of EV's, but that is what they are going to build. In reference to the Corvette, I predict the C8 will be the last Corvette with a gas engine. Also Tesla will not be easy to beat. Amazon barely turned profit from 1996 to 2016, and yet they are the most valuable company in the world now. I actually don't think Tesla needs to turn much profit, as long as they aren't sustaining losses, investors will buy. Tesla will be able to do more in self drive, ride share, subscriptions, selling insurance, etc that GM and Ford won't get into. GM and Ford sell a product get revenue once and it is over, Tesla will find ways to monetize a vehicle for years and have higher revenue streams.
  9. smk4565
    Right, every car company is going to push EV, regardless of whether consumers want them or ask for them, because shareholders want EVs, and self driving.
  10. smk4565
    Sure it is cocktails and dreams. But CEO's of most companies are compensated in stock, and get bonuses based on stock price gains. 10% of Marry Barra's pay is salary, 90% is stock and bonus, so what is her top priority? Drive the stock price. She got $15.6 million in stock in 2019, if that stock price goes up, her net worth goes up. Investors don't care about ICE vehicles, they want EV's and self driving. Case in point, Lucid Motors is expected to be worth $57 billion at their IPO, while they haven't even sold (or at least not delivered) a single car yet. Meanwhile Ford is worth $49 billion, because Ford is the past, not the future, and investors put money on the future.
  11. smk4565
    Tesla net income in 2020 was $721 million and they are worth $645 billion. GM net income in 2020 was $6.25 billion and they are worth $85 billion. And GM's stock price is probably up because they are saying they are going to be an EV company and changed their logo.
  12. smk4565
    I don't think they will find a million sales either, but they have to blow smoke to Wall Street. They also aren't going to find it with delivery trucks or driverless Uber vehicles, that self drive tech won't be ready for prime time by 2025.
  13. smk4565
    They have to say that and aim for it, because GM could sell 3 million gas Silverados and Escalades this year and their stock price won't even move. If they sell EV's investors will come and drive the stock price. Electric is all investors care about, see Tesla as an example, they could go 10 more years without a profit and still be worth 20 times what Ford or GM are worth as a company. I agree that it is ambitious, I am not sure where the sales will come from either. Unless GM prices the EV Silverado the same as the gas Silverado and takes a loss on every one of them in the name of building stock price. GM could take an income loss, use the loopholes in the tax code to basically make it not matter, and draw in investor money by the billions.
  14. smk4565
    400 miles would be a lot of range for a pickup, I assume that will be a big battery, so that one will probably be pricey. But I imagine they will also have a smaller battery pack at a lower price point also, and there is a market that will pay big money for a pickup. Shareholders want EV's so car companies are going to build them no matter what.
  15. smk4565
    Toyota/Lexus leave product on market for a long time, and have a slow development time also. This helps with their reliability and reputation for quality, and thus their resale value. But where it hurts is having stuff like the Tundra without a major redesign since 2007, the Lexus GX hasn't had a big redesign since the day dirt was created, and Lexus hasn't come up with a real 3-row crossover when every other car company has them. They have the trucky LX570, but that is dated as can be and not competitive and they said they are killing the Land Cruiser, so that kills the LX off too. $63k for a Camry V6 powered RX is ridiculous, better to get a German product. I've rode in a current gen RX before, you can feel and hear the Camry-ness coming from the engine, transmission and suspension. It just isn't as refined as a Lexus should be.
  16. smk4565
    I am not saying a fly by night start up, it could be any company, Tesla, Stellantis, Daimler, or it could be a Chinese one. My point is that FedEx is going to buy the vehicle that best meets their demands. If the Brightdrop is the best fit, then they'll buy 10,000s of them. But that isn't because it from an American company.
  17. smk4565
    They should buy the best vehicle for their needs. That “Americans will/should buy American” is what doomed GM and Ford in the 70s and 80s. If the Japanese made a better car then Americans should buy the Japanese car because it it a better product. Ford and GM thought they could built crap and people would buy it anyway because it was made in USA. If some Chinese company comes out with an Electric delivery van with 25% lower operating cost and 25% better reliability than the Brighthouse then FedEx would be stupid not to buy it and would be hurting their own business not to buy it. It is up to GM to make the best delivery van if they want customers to buy it.
  18. smk4565
    I forgot I did read about that. I wonder if FedEx will replace all delivery vehicles with the ev600, but I suppose over 10 years or so GM can meet the demand.
  19. smk4565
    I smell a big EV Sprinter order coming.
  20. smk4565
    Well they desperately need new trucks. Those Grumman ones are super old and dated and I am sure not safe at all, probably pollute more than a modern V8 and get crap mileage since everything got bad mileage 30 years ago.
  21. smk4565
    I like the squared off angular DeLorean style look, especially in the front. What I don't get is why it is part hatchback, part SUV. Hatchbacks tend to not sell well in the USA, so I feel like this could suffer like the original Bolt did. The back 1/4 of this vehicle looks odd, needs more of an SUV look there I think.
  22. smk4565
    The Bolt just had a price drop. Tesla cut prices too. Battery tech improvements will help get battery cost down. There will be R&D and production cost savings when there is a scalable EV platform that can be used for everything from a Corvette to a Suburban, you just modify the size of the same design. In 2030 EV’s won’t have as bad as a price gap to ICE. And for luxury cars it won’t be noticeable. Jaguars cost Tesla money right now and offer less performance.
  23. smk4565
    Not 50% more, prices will level off and be pretty similar.
  24. smk4565
    But JLR can't spend R&D dollars on ICE and EV at the same time, they don't have the money to do that. I have also seen estimates that EV will be over 50% market share by 2030. I suspect there won't be a gas powered luxury car in 2030, unless it is like an Acura/Lincoln badge job car. The gas engine can't match the NVH and silent operation off an EV. Also on performance take any V12 super car and it can't match a Tesla. And EV technology is only getting better while emissions restrictions and CAFE are killing V12s and V8s.
  25. smk4565
    Moving to EV won't cause a drop in sales, building bad cars will. Electric propulsion is superior to a gasoline drivetrain. Going EV is the right move, but all their competitors will also, so I don't see what changes for Jaguar. The Germans will still build better cars than them.
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