smk4565

Daimler's ATP in April was $64,900 which is #1, and if you subtract the Metris and Sprinter that number is probably more like $70,000 for their passenger cars. You were the one that didn't want to count the Vans division sales since it gives them an extra 50,000 units and thus makes them #1 in sales. And good thing they make vans with e-commerce and home delivery hitting all time highs, their van sales were up like 50% last year. And good thing they make an A-class for people that want a small car and can't afford a car that is $75k, which is most people. I'd rather have the A-class and GLA in the lineup than not, because them being there isn't taking away the S-class or G-wagen, they didn't kill off some other product and instead put the A-class in instead. (and yeah they are killing some convertibles and stuff like the S-class coupe, but that is market trends, people don't buy cars like that anymore, they want crossover, crossover, crossover, which sucks IMO)

Yeah and Amazon went nearly 20 years without turning profit or barely turning any profit, and where are they now, vs Sears/K-Mart, JC Penny, Macys, etc. Tesla doesn't really need to turn profit, they need growth, which takes money. Their stock price is not based on profit today, it is based on what people think Tesla profit will be 5-10 years from now. Tesla global sales Q1 2021 are up 80% over Q1 2020, so they seem to still be growing along. And sure, GM is fine, they have a good business in China and USA. Although it seems like GM is going to move away from cars like Ford did, which maybe that helps profitability, but probably means selling less cars, and less affordable cars. Could be good for the bottom line, not so good for consumer choice.

Tesla sales in 2020 up 50% Ford sales in 2020 down 16.1% GM sales in 2020 down 11.8% Toyota sales in 2020 down 11.3% Tesla is doing just fine.

Daimler is Mercedes cars and vans, those are US market numbers, and since the vans are cheaper than the cars, that would only drop their average. Much like BMW has Mini Cooper dragging down their average. Mercedes and BMW both have higher averages than Cadillac, both sell way more than Cadillac. ATP as I have said many times doesn't really matter that much, because all it measures is how well your low end cars sell vs your top end cars. If Chevrolet stopped selling all cars except Corvette, they could have a $75,000 ATP. But then 100% of Chevrolet dealers would go out of business. So who really cares that the brand ATP is? What matters is how much margin you can get in a given segment or on a given car. Why does Tesla outsell Cadillac if Tesla is so bad? The point was made that GM and Ford have superior supply chains and logistics than Tesla. Yet it is GM and Ford suffering on supply chain right now, not Tesla. Tesla has its own manufacturing issues, but their supply chain is holding up better than others.

The break down is good, but making EV a segment doesn't make sense then you have a Leaf and Bolt with a Porsche Taycan, like putting a Miata and a 911 together and saying they are both in the 2-door car segment. What would be interesting to see is like Model 3 ATP vs CT4, 3-series, C-class, etc, other cars of similar size. Or Model Y against other small crossovers like an Acura RDXor Lincoln Corsair, or Volvo XC60, those are all about the same size.

Maybe the traditional OEM's will catch up and beat them. But is Tesla outselling all those other luxury brands only because there are people that will by an EV and not consider anything else, or because people think Tesla makes a better car and people prefer their car to the other guys? Once there are dozens of EV's out there, then we'll know. Although I disagree on having a mouth piece owner in charge compared to one of these care-takers of the thrown appointed by the board. Because guys like Elon, Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, etc. those companies grew huge because they have the visionary inventor and marketer in charge. Jim Farley or Mary Barra (and no offense to them) could never start a company from scratch, or take some small company and blow it up into a global power. They are care takers, there must to maintain market share, they aren't visionaries that will come up with an idea or product and revolutionize an industry, like an Amazon, Facebook or Apple have done.

And yet now a CLA costs more than Cadillac's most expensive sedan, yikes! But I do agree that Cadillac should be more up market, they should have made XT5 and XT6 on rear drive platforms, offered that Blackwing V8 in them. And they totally botched their sedan lineup over the past 10 years, which is why it is basically nothing now. Too late to fix all that with gas engine cars, but when they go to EV, that is their chance to re-boot, and XT4 and XT5 could be killed off and replaced with a small electric SUV, and CT5 and CT4 can be killed off and replaced with an EV sedan and both can start around $50k and go up to like 80k or something. Then you have no sub-$50k Cadillac even available. And they still need to go above the Escalade in price, and maybe that Celestiq will be that.

Tesla has more volume than Cadillac, thus generates more revenue. The Model 3 outsells CT4/CT5 probably like 10 to 1, so of course Tesla's ATP is lower than Cadillacs. Cadillac has a good ATP because the CT4 has dismal sales and the CT5 and XT4 don't sell well for their class. If those sold at class average rates, it would drag down the average that the Escalade and XT6 are lifting up. Cadillac could also kill everything except the Escalade and sell only 1 product and get an $90k ATP, but I am not sure that is a good business model. Because volume and revenue. And I think Elon has a "Tesla for every person and every purpose" sort of mentality, which is why he sees need for a self driving semi-truck, a 200k sports car, a $30k compact car.

I got the April 2021 ATP's: Daimler $64,900 BMW Group $57,777 Tesla $50,705 Volvo $50,514 Ford $46,992 Stellantis $46,885 GM $46,800 VW Group $45,649 (includes, Audi, Porsche, etc) And the industry average was $40,476 which everyone else was below. So Tesla is 3rd in ATP (although JLR didn't have data on the list, I assume they are over $50k). So yes Tesla is only a few thousand higher, but it it still 3rd, or 4th assuming JLR is above them. And Tesla has the Cybertruck that will mostly be over $50k, and the low volume 200k Roadster coming and the Model S plaid which maybe they sold some in April, but they didn't deliver them, so I don't know how that works. Tesla did have a 10% drop in ATP from 2020, they were over $57,000 a year ago, but I imagine more lower priced Model 3's are available now than were last year. BMW was down 3%, Daimler up 1%, so Tesla was 3rd in ATP a year ago as well, it was the same order for the top 4 last year. Ford who can't build the F150 and GM who can't build the Corvette due to supplier issues are the poster children for logistics? F150 sales were down 30% in May because of supplier issues. But yes Tesla needs to get things together, but they seem to be improving at that.

Telsa's market share in 2019 was 1% of the US market, at the end of 2020 they were at 1.99%. of the US market, so they doubled their overall market share. No one else is growing that fast. Telsa sales were up 50% in 2020 when most automakers were down, Ford was down 16.1% in 2020 for example.

No one is buying the Jaguar i-Pace, that car flopped from day one. Maybe because it is ugly and overpriced or maybe because it says Jaguar on it, and the Model Y says Tesla on it. If you buy a Tesla, you are cutting edge, tech savvy and cool, if you buy a Jaguar you have to spend the next however many years explaining to people why you bought a Jaguar. Everyone says the Mach-E is good, but it is also one product, and I know Ford will has more coming. But it is still a Ford, not a Tesla, and Tesla will always have faster, cooler, more tech loaded, more expensive cars than Ford, so Tesla will be a more aspirational brand. Ford isn't going to build $150k+ EV's running sub 10 second quarter miles and getting headlines, so Tesla will always have the image advantage. This is a general problem for a lot of brands is lack of good halo product. Probably about half the car companies out there lack a good top level halo car that really lifts the brand.

3 of Cadillac's 6 vehicles have a base price lower than a Tesla Model 3. 5 of 6 Cadillacs have a base price lower than the base price of a Model Y. So if Tesla is in Ford pricing, what is Cadillac who is priced below where Tesla is? And same can be read for Lincoln, Acura, Infiniti, Volvo as well. Most of their cars start under $50k, the cheapest Model Y you can get is $52k. And Tesla has a $200,000 car coming with that Roadster, none of those brands I mentioned could even think about a $200k car, Lexus can be thrown in there too, they all know it would flop hard. And I am not a Tesla fan boy, I am merely pointing out how they are selling a lot of cars are high prices and it is not going to be so easy to knock them off. That is why I separated the Vans division, Mercedes sold 325,000 units with Vans, and 274,000 without, compared to Tesla's 292,000. So Tesla beat them last year. If anyone is going to beat Tesla it will be Mercedes, but Mercedes is always going to operate at a higher price point than Tesla, although that didn't stop Mercedes from outselling all the other luxury brands in the past.

I never said Tesla was a Gold standard. I am stating they came from nothing 10 years ago to be the #1 selling luxury brand in the USA, and worldwide they did about 500k units last year, and that is better than a lot of other luxury brands did, and Tesla only has 4 models too, imagine if they had 6-7 models they could sell even more. Tesla isn't going to be an easy brand to beat, especially when it comes to EV's. And I don't know if the the EQS to Model S comparison is even that fair, the EQS might have a starting price nearly $50k higher and it is a foot longer. So the EQE is probably a better competitor, which we should know specs on that by fall since it goes on sale in 2022. And still 6 times more valuable than GM and 9 times more valuable than Ford as of today. So probably not yet time to sound the panic alarm.

Worldwide Mercedes is #1 is luxury sales, they are like 5-1 over Tesla. But I was more referencing the American market since Cadillac, Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln, etc don't have much of a global footprint outside US and China. In 2020 Tesla sold 292,902 units. Mercedes cars sold 274,916, and Mercedes-Benz Vans sold 50,999. BMW sold 278,732 units. Tesla only sold 195,000 in 2019, and yes in 2020 they were the #1 selling luxury brand in the USA. So I am not sure where all this competition is hurting them. More EV's from Ford, VW, or anyone else, is just moving sales from gas to electric, it isn't stealing Tesla sales and taking them down.

Sure they take short cuts, but they do a lot of things well too. And as I stated, they outsell several luxury brands with no marketing budget. If you want performance, the V8s can't compete with the electric motors, so Tesla still has a performance advantage over other luxury brands. And if you just want an EV, Cadillac, Lincoln, Acura, Lexus, Infiniti, Genesis, Land Rover, all don't have an EV. Tesla still has a lot of advantages in their favor. It won't be that easy for the competition to just squash them out. And if it was, why haven't they already? 5 years ago, all those luxury brands outsold Tesla, now Tesla outsells them all except maybe Lexus.

All the other car companies are still heavily ICE dependent. Tesla is still ahead of the game since they are all EV, and all their money is going into EVs, they don't need to split R&D between ICE and EV. And Tesla still makes the fastest cars, their infotainment and self driving tech is still better than most. Tesla still outsells Lincoln, Cadillac, Acura and Infiniti in the same price segment, and Tesla does it with a smaller line up.

Tesla is gaining total market share. Losing EV market share because there are more EV's but using EV market share only is a horrible metric, total market is what matters. Ford could cancel all models but the F150, go from selling 2.5 million cars a year to 750,000 and gain 5% market share in pick ups and claim they gained pick up segment market share, but who cares if they just lost 1.75 million sales. Have to look at whole market. And the Cybertruck bed lowers in the rear, closer to the ground than any other pick up, so it is plenty accessible, actually the easiest to load on market because it comes with a ramp too. EV market share doesn't matter. Only total market share. When Tesla sales are declining, while everyone else is growing, then they can worry.

I love how Dealer Associations say the dealer model is so great and the direct sales model is so terrible, so you need laws to stop direct sales. If they weren't afraid of direct sales or afraid of Tesla (or Lucid or Rivian, or whatever Chinese car company comes here) then why do they always talk about it? If the dealer model was so strong, they should welcome the competition. If the dealer model was so great, then the dealers should lobby the state gov't to allow Tesla to sell direct and compete with them head on to prove their point.

That is what it says online. May or may not be true, we will see.

Well the Cybertruck is designed to do 750,000 miles with no maintenance except tires, so you don't really need a dealership. Tesla has some issues and needs to get more models out and keep the existing ones updated. However they aren't really at risk of losing customers, their owners are super loyal and they are gaining market share, not losing.

You take a test drive at one oof their stores or demo places. Then go home and order online.

I think Tesla is working on a car smaller and cheaper than the Model 3 that will likely appeal to Europe and China as well. But they have to get Cybertruck and the Semi and Roadster all out. I don't think their R&D staff or manufacturing capacity can take on another volume car right now.

Elon will probably lobby them, he has more money than the dealer association. But I imagine people will have no problem buying online, they can test drive the car online, then just buy online like people buy everything else online. The Dealer Associations are almost like suburban shopping malls trying to compete with Amazon, they can make up whatever excuses they want, but their spend 5 hours at the dealership to buy a car is an out dated model.

This looks like a winner, but they never give a price on any of these cars. And I could see this being the most expensive Kia easily, and then maybe not worth that kind of money for a Kia.

The steering wheel looks terrible, and the door panels look boring. The interior is a bit blah for me, the exterior looks different so it will stand out. I think the specs and performance all look strong. It could be a hit if priced right, but depends on what it costs, it could cost a lot and be a bust too.