smk4565

In a level 5 self driving car all this tech is great, but I also wonder if we get to level 5 self driving pods, will people even use any of this or just sit on their phones and text, scroll instagram/Facebook and watch YouTube videos on their phones and not care about any of this, in the same way people do that on buses and airplanes now. At least this is all OTA update, because that is a problem with most cars today, if they can't continually update software, they fall behind the tech on your iPhone. I do hope in this quest for AI and software, they don't forget horsepower, steering, suspension tuning, brakes and the stuff that makes a good driving car. Also I'd be more impressed if they said they are switching all their cars to a 48 volt electrical system and having wi-fi controlled items like windows, power seat controls etc, and could eliminate half the computer chips and 200 lbs worth of wiring that current cars have. Because weight is the enemy to handling, acceleration, braking, EV range, etc.

Yeah the $48,000 average is still really high. EV tax credit will help in 2024, but there still need to be cheaper EV's and not just $80,000 pick ups and $100,000 sedans. And more options are coming, I saw Hyundai is working on a $22,000 Ioniq 2, we know Tesla is working on a low priced car. Once you have EV's with MSRP's under $30k that aren't the size of Mini from the 60s then I think the EV sales will take off.

Mercedes has had basically the same naming structure for 50 years, S-class has been around 50 years, G-wagon and E-class around 45 years, etc. Consistency is good. Also the model name isn't as important as the Mercedes-Benz brand name is. Similar to Tesla, the brand is what matters, not the model. Brands with lesser image need to rely more on model names. As far as weight goes, a Tesla Model Y is 4,154 to 4,555 lbs. A Cadillac XT5 which is close in size is 3,915 to 4,338. Yes EV's are heavier, but they don't need to be 6,000 lbs.

The EQ naming is going away after this generation, because the next Generation of S-class, E-class etc will only be electric and there will be no ICE version, thus you can jus have E450 or S500, etc. Mercedes executives have even said they aren't keeping the EQ naming structure. And the Mercedes EV's are too heavy, but their next generation tech is due for 2025 model year, and the electric CLA is targeting a 400+ mile range and 800 volt architecture. The current EQ cars (although they beat their EPA estimates in range) are behind what Tesla has in terms of range and performance and the EQ cars are too expensive when an ICE E-class is cheaper with better interior and better styling. But as I said, the 400 volt batteries and the current motors are all getting replaced in 2025 with a new generation. GM on the other hand is going to be ramping up Ultium for 2025 model year when it is old tech. Cadillac used to be all into cutting weight, and bragged about their sub 4,000 lb full size CT6, I bet the Vistiq is over 6,000 lbs for a vehicle smaller than a CT6.

Best to buy a Cybertruck.

The naming scheme is stupid, but whatever. The issue I see is the Lyriq is near MDX or XT6 size already but is only a 2 row. So this is just bigger and heavier, and Ultium products are already too heavy to begin with. If they can engineer weight out of this and boost efficiency then they could have a solid vehicle.

Why does BYD need a dealership? They can just sell direct like Tesla does. The other issue is VW, GM and others are getting clobbered in China where they used to do a lot of volume. Once they lose that market, GM has no European business and VW has a small American business. Their economies of scale are getting hit. These guys underestimated Toyota and Honda in the 70s and 80s, underestimated Hyundai and Kia in the 2000s, they better not underestimate the Chinese EV’s because they’ll figure it out and they’ll win on price. To Cadillac or Audi buyers it may not matter but to Chevy and VW buyers it will.

I think it is more like 10 years. BYD will probably be the largest car company in the world by 2030, I'd be worried about them if I were any legacy OEM that operated in Asia.

A 9 month or even a year delay isn't a problem if they can get the cost of their EV's down. That is the real issue that a Blazer EV is like $60,000, the Equinox EV is launching over $50k. They need to suck cost and weight out of Ultium. And Hyundai isn't the threat, BYD and the Chinese are, because they already have cheap EV's in China, they are entering Europe now and they'll be in the USA by 2030. And for the "people won't buy a Chinese car" argument, they said that about Japanese and Korean cars too, and they will buy a Chinese EV when you can get a 7-seat SUV with a 350 mile range for $40k like the BYD Tang delivers now, and the BYD has a better interior than the Blazer.

Good news to see more chargers. People see gas stations on every corner, but they don't see EV charging everywhere, so I think part of getting more people to buy EVs is having more chargers to go to. I don't think range anxiety is the problem it is lack or charger anxiety that holds people back.

I think Acura gave us a sales dud, the Integra isn’t selling that well either.

At $46,000 - $58,000 why not get a C-class or 3-series or a Tesla Model 3. All better choices, or get a larger, less expensive Cadillac CT5 and in all 4 examples you have correct wheel drive, not wrong wheel drive like with the Acura. Maybe they raised the price so sales drop so they can kill this model off and blame "sagging demand for sedans" and introduce another SUV coupe type vehicle.

Tesla's challenge is China and BYD for sure, and also high interest rates and macro economic factors that impact everyone. Tesla's other challenge is only have 4 products, 2 of which are in the $75-100,000 range and have a base level 670 hp motors. The number of people shopping for 670 hp is a rather small part of the market, like less than 1%. That leaves 1 sedan and 1 crossover. So clearly they need a cheaper vehicle, a pick up, an affordable 3 row SUV, maybe a van, the roadster, etc, to fill out a model line up so they can have a body style and price point to attract a wide variety of consumers. The competition from other brands isn't even a problem for them right now, the 210 hp Equniox RS EV FWD is the same price as an AWD Long Range Model Y for example, that's DOA for the Equinox. The BZ4X/Soltera are not competition with their 200 mile range, the Mach-E isn't selling and is having its production cut, EV6 sales are down 15% this year. And legacy OEM's are losing money on EV's and scale won't save them, that is why they are all cutting back, they have to stop the losses.

Now I wonder if the $34,995 Equinox will ever exist, since only the RS is available at launch, and I don't think the 1LT will ever be made for 2024 model year, then for 2025, all of a sudden the 1LT will go from $34,995 to $38,995.

Right, Tesla will make a lot of money from being the new largest "gas station"

EV sales are 8% of the market in the USA, 25% in California. EV’s are 14% of new cars sales in Europe and 31% in China. Guess what the #1 volume market was for GM and VW? China. But GM and VW are bleeding sales over there. You can barely get an ICE car for $20k, that won’t buy you a base Corolla, but let’s say $25k gets you a Civic, Trax, Kona, etc. If someone builds a $30k sticker price EV in North America, the $7500 tax credit is applied point of sale starting in January, now we have a $22,500 EV that is cheaper than ICE. If the domestics don’t figure it out, the Chinese already have.

GM market cap $37 Billion. Tesla market cap $650 billion. Of course GM and Ford are delaying their EV's because they lose money on them, and people don't want their overpriced EV's. Hyundai just cut Ioniq 6 prices by $4,100 because people don't want a $50k Hyundai sedan when a Sonata is $30,000. So they have chosen to soldier on and just lose more money per unit to keeping the factory running. Mercedes dealers are complaining about the EQ series since they are too expensive and not aspirational products. Although Mercedes total sales are down 1.8% this year and their EV's are up 339% to nearly 15% of their total volume. ICE is dying off, all the more reason Mercedes needs to get their EV house in order and get better pricing, because once those aren't the new car on the showroom, people will lose interest at that price. Legacy auto might get away with a 1 year delay in sales as long as they use that 1 year to improve the product and get lower manufacturing cost. If they are just trying to kick the can down the road and worry about it later, they will be too late to catch up. And it isn't just in the US, in China the EV's are taking over, which is why GM, Ford and VW have lost about half their sales volume over there in the past 5 years, they can't compete on price over there. BYD is already into Europe, and again VW can't compete on price. Eventually BYD will come to the US too and they'll bring the price war with them.

Tesla deliveries are up 45% this year. No other car company has 45% growth. It is a myth that EV’s don’t sell, everyone else’s EV’s aren’t selling. And if for some reason Tesla got in trouble, they would get a government bailout like GM and Chrysler did.

Blazer 2LT gas awd is $39,495 and a Blazer EV 2LT awd is $56,715. So I guess it is more like a 40% increase. And of course Tesla had it hard at first they had to start from scratch, buy a factory, etc. Legacy auto already has factories and workers and tooling and paint booths, distribution network, etc. And Ford just announced today they lost $36,000 on every EV sold in Q3 and will be cutting Mach-E production. Hard to get economies of scale when you cut production. And they are going to keep getting credits because Ford and GM are cutting EV production and delaying EV’s and Stellantis nowhere to be found at a time when the CAFE numbers are going up.

This is probably the type of thinking that occurs at GM, Ford, Stellantis and Toyota. They think Tesla isn’t a threat so don’t worry about them. They are all in for a rude awakening.

They make gas powered cars now, they won’t be in 10 years. Also the only companies making more profit per car than Tesla are BMW and Mercedes-Benz. The car manufacturing business has relatively low margins. Hyundai/Kia for example make about $700 profit per car. As that ICE business shrinks, not sure how many EV losses that is going to fund. And they just cut Ioniq 6 by $4,000 to line up closer to the Model 3.

Maybe they know how, but are unable. The Escalade EV is 50% more than the ICE version, the Blazer EV is 50% more than the ICE version. You can’t raise prices 50% and not expect sales to tank. They have to get the cost out first to get the volume they need. Kind of a catch 22.

Tesla isn't losing money, they have made $7.1 billion dollars of net income so far this year, so they should end the year with about a $9 billion profit if Q4 looks like Q3, and it could be a $10 billion profit if they have a good quarter. They don't need subsidized, they are easily making money, and they have a growing product line to expand revenue. And energy generation and distribution is a small % of their business, but it is high margin and they are about to double or triple that part of the business with all these other OEM's putting Tesla charging plugs on their cars. Elon lost money since the stock price dropped, but I don't think Elon cares about losing money, he wasted $40 billion on X for no reason, he could have bought GM for $39 billion at today's price if he wanted to flush money away. This is why Tesla is dangerous. They are profitable at about $5k per car now, Elon might not care if they cut prices another $5k per car and make $0 on the car, if he can make the money on charging and selling FSD software that has huge margins. Basically give away a free iPhone to make money on subscriptions and apps. The other companies can't do that, or afford to get into a price war with him.

Ford lost $1.33 Billion on EV's in Q3. But it isn't just the bleeding money, it is that F150 Lightning demand is basically gone, and the Mach-E has very little demand. The dealer near me has 19 of them, all with customer cash offers from Ford, why the dealer isn't throwing in $5k off on top of that I don't know. And I don't have any faith or loyalty to Musk, but it is pretty clear that Tesla is highly profitable and with quickly rising sales volume, while no one else can seem to figure out EV's. And you have GM delaying the Equinox EV to next year some time, the Silverado and Sierra were pushed back a year, Mercedes dealers complaining about how the EV's are as aspirational or desirable as the gas cars and they are too expensive, Hyundai/Kia dealers have EV's piled up on the lots. The same thing is true at all these OEM's, they make EV's that don't look like the rest of the brand, or aren't eye catching enough, then they cost 25-50% more than the similarly sized ICE car on the same lot, and they are heavy, with less range and performance than a Tesla. Cadillac Escalade starts at $82,000, the Escalade EV is $130,000. These Escalade EV's will sit around on dealer lots also, unless they only make about 2,000 of them a year. All these OEM's need to suck cost out of these EV's but seem clueless on how to do it.

All that over engineering to get a vehicle that is heavier, slower, more expensive and has less range than their closest rival. And that gets outsold 10-1 by their key rival in just the USA. Globally it is like 20 to 1. Ford knows how to do pickups and commercial vehicles, and I give them credit on the Bronco and Bronco Sport, they built desirable products there and the Maverick is a big win because small trucks and trucks under $30,000 don't exist anymore and with high interest rates and inflation it was the right product at the right time. But outside of that, they don't have a lot going for them.