smk4565

The EQC will probably never come here. I think the USA will only get Mercedes dedicated EV platform vehicles, and they will have replaced the current EQC and EQA that are built on the MRA and MFA platforms by the time they are ready to bring them to USA. They had to get EQC and EQA out in Europe or face billion dollar emissions fines.

Is their 2nd EV going to be called the Chapter 1? Maybe their last gasoline car will be the Epilogue.

46 is a low average buyer age for a premium brand, lower probably than any luxury brand is.

Tesla hit volume around 3-4 years ago when the Model 3 came out. That has put a dent in all luxury brands. 46 is younger than the average new car buyer which is mid 50s.

Mercedes outsold Tesla in Q1 of 2021 in the USA, but Mercedes needs their EV's and they have 2022 S-class hitting dealers soon, new C-class is out in Europe so should be here soon, that is a good volume model. But they need the EV's too for the consumer that will only consider EV. And I think the Cybertruck will sell in big numbers. People like what is new and exciting or different, the Cybertruck will deliver that, and with over 1,000 hp if you so choose.

Or do younger buyers not care about burled walnut wood trim, supple leather and lambs wool rugs, and all the stuff you find in a Rolls-Royce or a 90s Jaguar? Tesla with their let's call it mediocre interior, with a 4 model line up is still outselling Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, Audi, etc. Brands with great names, long histories (except for Lexus) much better interiors than Tesla. Maybe upscale isn't in wood and leather, and it is in tech, lifestyle, sustainable material seats made from recycled plastic, etc. I am not saying it is, but Tesla has appeal with consumers, even with a worse interior than any rival. The problem is more how do you predict today what the market will want in 2025 and how to you capture that volume that Tesla is seeing.

Porsche actually bought VW. I also think copying Germans is a bad idea, Cadillac tried that for years with a lot of swing and miss products, and the Escalade which is traditional American and the opposite of German luxury has been their most successful product. I don't know they they didn't do more vehicles with Escalade characteristics rather than E90 3-series characteristics.

Tesla happened. So far this year they are outselling BMW, Lexus, Tesla, Volkswagen and Mazda. They need their EV fleet to prevent people leaving them for Tesla.

The Mach-E interior is better than Tesla's. People will still buy the Tesla over it for performance, technology, charging network and brand image. It isn't as easy to just roll and EV out there and take out Tesla. The EV purists probably won't even consider a car from a brand that makes ICE vehicles, the Tesla loyalists are die hard, they won't consider anything else, and for people that never have bought an EV, they are probably going to trust Tesla who has more EV experience than anyone and the best charging network than the traditional OEM's. Will take a lot of time, effort and money to displace Tesla as the top EV maker.

100% the Lincoln interior is better, and yet consumers are choosing the Tesla now. The Continental is gone and the Model 3 was the 16th best selling car in the world last year with 439,760 units. I think even if you make that interior and put it in an electric sedan, the Tesla will still outsell it on brand name alone. But watch Lincoln price the Zypher at like $80k, if a Mach-E is $45-65k, you know a Lincoln will be more than that, and I think appetite is low for an expensive Lincoln sedan.

What does Lincoln volume mean? I am aware that volume does not equal profit, Ferrari made more money than FCA in 2020 and one of those companies sold 9900 cars and the other sold 4 million. But Lincoln is not a Ferrari or Porsche that can make obscene money per car (Ferrari made $71,000 profit per car last year). My point is that if Lincoln is a profitable brand, and making say $5,000 profit per vehicle. And Ford makes $1,000 profit per vehicle, Ford should want to sell more Lincolns. They owe that to their shareholders, and employees who rely on FoMoCo's profitability. Now if Ford brand and Lincoln brand products both make the same profit per car then it doesn't matter what they sell. And on the flip side is the Lincoln dealers. They do rely on volume to make money because most of their money comes from the service department, fewer Lincolns on the road is less cars to service. And most new car dealers rely on quarterly and annual volume bonuses more so than the $500 or so in profit per car they get selling that car. And the sales department also makes their money in the F&I office with loan fees, warranties, etc, which are again paid per unit usually, so volume there helps the dealer. And when Lincoln asks these dealers to spend $500k to upgrade for EV's like Cadillac did, the ones without volume aren't going to do that, they'll just close because there isn't a return there.

I never said Lincoln was Porsche, and I am aware Porsche had hard times in the 90s, Audi and Mercedes paid Porsche to build cars like 500E and RS2 that helped keep Porsche afloat. And everyone relies on SUVs now, that is what the market is. And today Porsche selling 250k units a year can make as much money as car companies that sell 4 million units a year. Agreed that Lincoln has economies of scale with Ford, but the same can be said for Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Saturn, Mercury, Plymouth, etc. They all had economies of scale from the parent company too. I don't see Lincoln as having some dramatic turnaround like Porsche did, to wear the Lincoln brand is 50% of Ford Motor Company's profit and some success story of the auto industry.

I am aware profit is not directly linked to volume. Porsche had a higher net income than Ford last year ($3.77B to $3.3B) and Porsche doesn't have a very big volume. But Lincoln does not run at Porsche-like profit margins, very few do. What I don't understand is how Lincoln selling less cars is a good thing. If they make good margin on each unit, they should want to sell more of those units.

Bashing Tesla is bashing a domestic. And I am aware of Tesla's quality issues, but consumers are still choosing to buy Teslas, Tesla sales were up 50% last year, when many were down. It is going to take more than beating Tesla in reliability to outsell them.

Can't make profit on 500,000 EV's a year, but Lincoln will make profit on 100,000 EV's a year?

But we don't know if the Lincoln brand turns profit. 5 years ago Ford was thinking of cancelling the brand. What if they spend $1 billion on Lincoln EV's that don't sell? Ford can't grow the brand without spending money on it. And maybe Ford will spend the money and sales will go up and Lincoln will be a success, only time will tell. But everyone here says Alfa Romeo loses money, but their global volume is about the same as Lincoln's. So I don't see how Lincoln can be some profit machine while Alfa is a money loser, we will never know since they won't break out brand profits, but my guess is they are in similar situations. And I am sure Mercedes or BMW or Audi would love to sell 5 million (if they had capacity to do so), every company wants growth and more revenue.

Lincoln was down last year (and pretty much every one was) and are down this year. 2020 2021 Q1 Also shrinking your product line is't a way to grow sales. So they kill sedans, kill the Nautilus when the Edge dies in a year or 2, and I supposed replace the a Lincoln version of Mach-E, which makes sense, that is a 1 for 1 swap. But those 2 Lincoln sedans didn't sell, I don't see how a more expensive Zephyr EV would sell. And in Q1 the BMW X3 and X5 alone are outselling the whole Lincoln brand, same for the Mercedes GLE and GLC, they outsell the whole brand. So the strategy of put all our focus on SUVs and we'll go head to head in certain segments isn't working, they are losing in those segments. And Ford SUVs aren't segment leaders either in most cases, so how long can you re-work those and put Lincoln badges on them before Lincoln is just Mercury and gets killed off because it isn't worth the hassle for 100k or less sales a year in USA, and 50,000 sales in China. But is that a profitable business model? Their global volume is like 150k units a year, when other luxury brands are over 2 million, Tesla is over 500,000 last year, expected to hit 600,000 this year. If 150k units a year is profitable then Ford will keep them around. But if 150k units is making Ford profit they are pleased with, wouldn't they rather have 300k sales and double the profit? or 600k sales and quadruple the profit?

If Lincoln resale value was good, quality and interiors are so good and the products are “world class” as Lincoln claims, then why aren’t they selling? And they aren’t selling in the USA let alone getting beat 15-1 by any German brand in China and Lincoln not being a factor in Europe.

If we are going to play the compare resale value game, here is the Navigator: And the Lexus LX: And the G-wagen: A 2016 Navigator is worth $30k less than a 2016 Lexus, and they cost about the same new. The Lincoln seems to do okay in the first few years then really drops off in value, which I think goes to a lot of people not wanting an older Ford/Lincoln product, vs being very willing to pay for an older Toyota product because people know a Toyota/Lexus will last a long time. And a 4 year old G-wagen is pretty close to what they cost new, and not sure why '20 and '21 G-wagen's are over $200k, but hot demand I guess.

2018 Flex started at $31,195 per Kelly Blue Book. https://www.kbb.com/ford/flex/2018/ And what I would assume be the volume model SEL $33,905. And in 2019 prices rose slightly, per KBB again: So the price today of a Flex is not more than what someone paid for one in 2018 or 2019.

I don't care about year over year, in spring 2020 the new and used car market were both dead. I care about the price of a used car today vs what that car cost new 2-3 years ago. The 2018 Escape has an average price of $21,694, but a 2021 Escape SE is $30k, it still depreciated $9k in 3 years. According to car gurus the 2018 4Runner is selling for $41,830, a brand new 2021 4Runner SR5 Premium with a moonroof has an MSRP of $41,580. Zero depreciation over 3 years, that is what is crazy. And my point is the Lincoln brand does not have this sort of desirability, in that their new vehicles have low sales numbers, and their used ones have poor resale value, because they aren't sought after on the used market either. I'd say only Infiniti has a worse image than Lincoln as far as luxury brands go, and Alfa Romeo is so small in volume, hard to gauge there, overall their image isn't good, but they have some hardcore followers.

But I am not talking something bought a year ago at the bottom and selling now in a hot market. I am talking about a car sold in 2018 that had 53k miles put on it, selling for over the 2021 MSRP. Used car market is hot, but 3 year old Lincolns and Fords aren't getting original MSRP like Toyotas can. If people can't find a new car, but want the next best thing, it seems that the market is looking at Toyota.

I think it has AWD now, might not have back then. The base Continental was front drive with a 305 hp V6, just like the ES350, and Toyota engines are more reliable and Toyota/Lexus have far better resale value. The Continental’s difference was having the turbo V6 and AWD and that was an advantage over the ES, but not over any of the Germans. And as an example of how crazy good Toyota resale is, I wrote and estimate and ran a total loss value on a 2018 4Runner SR5 with 53k miles, and it was $43,800 (average of NADA and market value). A 2021 4Runner with the same trim and same options has a sticker price of $43,379. And I have twice this month had 2019 RAV4 hybrids come in for more than original msrp. There is no Lincoln on earth that after 3 years and 53k miles went up in value, Lincoln resale value is awful.

So if you are challenging benchmarks like the E-class, 5-series and A6 (at least in price segment), then why do you come with a 9/10 baked product? And if they were going for full size like an A8 or Lexus LS, they were in fantasy land, but even a Lexus ES350 is/was a better product then the Continental, and the Lexus was cheaper. If they want this Zypher to sell, they need an 11/10 product something nice than a Genesis G80, but EV with more performance and the same price as a G80. Or come up with a hook like level 4 self driving standard, something that is way cutting edge that will attract people that otherwise wouldn't consider it.

9 day average on dealer lots. It was built on a Fusion platform...