smk4565

Couple things, 1. Luxury brands tend to have high lease rates because wealthy people trade cars more often and want a new car every 3 years. They have the disposable income to do that. Where as a middle class, or maybe lower middle class buyer (if they can even afford a new car anymore) are going to look at something to finance on a 5-7 year loan and try to keep that car 8-10 years to get value out of it, because they can't afford to go buy a new car every 3 years. 2. Brands with high resale value can offer attractive lease rates, when brands with poor resale value can not. Toyota should actually be able to kill it in leasing because of the resale value they have. 3. Fiat on there is an outlier, I suspect that is a manufacturer subsidized lease that they loose money on every one, but they have union contracts at factories they can't close and need CAFE credits, etc and no one will buy them, so they give them away on a lease. Yes they should. And you can still share platforms and some powertrains, that most consumers don't care about or know the difference. Especially in an EV world where everything is a chassis full of batteries with a body bolted on top. I am all for economies of scale to drive down cost. But you need 3 tiers, like going form Holiday Inn to a Marriott, to a Ritz Carlton. There needs to be a clear difference int he product.

Their #1 selling car in the USA this year is the GLE, average sale price on those is $75k. Their #2 seller is the E-class, which costs the same as a GLE, and #3 is the GLC. For the first half of 2021, 74,034 of Mercedes 160,646 sales were vehicles with a base MSRP over $54,000 (46.1%). If you add in C-class and GLC (which some body styles like C-convertible and GLC Coupe base over $50k and average sale prices of those lines would top $50k) you get 121,978 out of 160,646 which is 75.9%. And some CLA, GLB, GLA are selling for over $50k, but let's assume those cancel out with base C300's selling for under $50k and call that a wash. For Cadillac, 20,716 of their 73,406 sales in the first half of 2021 are vehicles with a base MSRP over $50,000, which is 28.2%. Also interesting to note, that Mercedes with just their cars that start over $54k outsell the whole Cadillac brand.

GMC shouldn't have any fleet, they can sell those through Chevy. GMC is supposed to be a level above Chevy, it shouldn't overlap Chevy. All 4 GM brands basically cover the same price ranges, that makes no sense. The Corvette is a Chevy, so value should be in there, that is why I have said I could see a turbo 4 or V6 with say 375-400 hp as a base Corvette for $55k, then the V8 Stingray can start at $65k, or even $70k, just put a little extra equipment standard on the V8 that is optional on the base car. And you'd have the Z06 at the top. Then you make a Cadillac sports car that starts at say $90k or $100k, and then goes upwards from there, to deliver luxury the Corvette can't, and a top end Cadillac would deliver performance above a Z06. My point is more that Chevy should be lower cost and volume based. Thus the Corvette shouldn't be a $100k+ car, the $100k car should be a Cadillac, with Cadillac level service, Cadillac dealers, etc. And GMC shouldn't be selling pickups (or SUV's) for the price of a Chevy. The GMC should be like 25% more than a Chevy, the Cadillac 50% more than a Chevy so you have actual tiers, like the way GM was designed to be 90 years ago.

Exactly, which is why the Sierra should start at the SLT trim. Let Chevy sell work trucks and the SLE equivalent. No they aren’t, if a loaded Denali 1500 is around $75k, a Cadillac would have to start at $80k. The luxury/sport trims would be $90k, the Platinum $100k, and you could easily have $10k in stand alone options to any of those trims.

But a Sierra starts at $30k. A luxury brand half ton truck would start around $75k for a 2 wheel drive. And I guess we’ll see how Rivian and Hummer do. If Cadillac did a pickup the base model would be like $80k and pushing up to say $110k for a half ton. I don’t see a market for that and GM must not either or they would build it. I am sure Mercedes doesn’t see a market for it either, especially not in Europe or China which are their 2 main markets.

The Cadillac image alone should make it worth more than a GMC, although the Cadillac image isn't what it should be. GM needs to work on that part, I think the whole Cadillac brand needs to push more upmarket but that is another issue. The Escalade has Super Cruise and the bigger screen with some more tech, better stereo than the Denali or High Country Tahoe. The materials and trim are better in an Escalade (more so on the higher trims) than a Yukon Denali according to Motor Trend, and they should be better if it's a Cadillac. The Escalade in base trim though has leatherette seats, you have to go up a level to get real leather which is standard in the Yukon Denali, but skip the base Escalade and go to the Luxury and problem solved there. Supposedly there is an Escalade-V coming, I don't know what has taken this long, there are always people willing to pay more for the best version of something, seems like easy profit margin, but I would imagine there won't be higher power Tahoe/Yukon, and only Escalade, so there is a differentiator.

I am not disputing that people pay $60-70k for some of these pick up trucks ($80k on some of the heavy duties), and then spend even more on after market stuff for them. And as I have said for 10 years, I think GMC should make the SLT trim the standard on every model, and Denali as the step up to get away from the Chevy overlap. This would wipe out 30% of GMC sales, which would piss off GMC dealers, but GM can still sell those people Chevorlets, so GM still gets the money anyway. What I am saying is a luxury brand truck won't work, otherwise these car companies would be doing it.

But AT4 isn't a luxury version, and GM also launched the AT4 and Denali first, before the other trims. I read 50% of 2500's are Denali in the same story, and 50% of overall Sierra's are AT4 or Denali. So maybe like 30% Denali on the overall, with 20% overall AT4. But Chevy isn't doing 30-50% High Country, Ford isn't doing 30% King Ranch edition. Although I have said since the GM bankruptcy, that GMC should be one of 2 things, either a fleet/work truck brand, or a Denali only type brand. They are too similar to Chevy right now. Just using the Sierra as an example, it starts at $30,100, but there is some package discount and GMC.com shows me $29,795 for a base model. The SLT starts at $47,500, and AT4 starts at $54,700 and Denali starts at $55,800. I think the Sierra (and all GMC's) should start at SLT as the base model, then have either an AT4 off road version or a Denali luxury version. Wipe out all those base and SLE trims. That would put them above Chevy, but still doesn't make them a full on luxury line. And a luxury brand truck like say a Lexus or Cadillac, would be nicer than a Denali, and I don't see a $100k Lexus Tundra or Cadillac Silverria selling. But a Lincoln pick up, in base trim, would have to be nicer and more luxurious than an F150 Platinum or King Ranch. So we are talking $75k or so for a V6 1500 truck before options, and running it to 100k, basically Navigator pricing. If there was a market for that, Ford would be doing it.

Right, they sell high trim levels of existing trucks. But even those are probably like a 10-20% take rate or so compared to how many Ford XLT, or Chevy LS/LT level trucks they sell. And what you don't see is Lincoln, Cadillac, Lexus pick ups and I guess Ram's luxury truck would be Alfa Romeo or Maserati. There must not be a market for luxury brand trucks because none of them are doing it.

The chassis for the Nissan Nivera or Navera, however you spell it, was used as the basis of the Mercedes X-class. A lot of the body panels were the same I think, but the X-class had it's own front and rear facia and interior, so similar to Tahoe turned into an Escalade, a lot of shared bones. Although the Mercedes X-class used Mercedes own 4 and 6 cylinder diesel engines and the Mercedes 7G-tronic transmission, not the Nissan powertrains, maybe used Mercedes suspension components, I don't remember. They were on sale in Europe for 2 years maybe and pulled the plug on it. I don't think they sold very many. I did a quick price search, looks like the X-class was $45-85k, but who knows how exchange rates and taxes factor in, cars cost more in Europe, but they were expensive compared to other mid size pickups.

BMW sold the 2002, a cheap car, the Isetta, a really cheap car, scores of 1-series, many fwd 1-series in Europe, the 318i in the USA in the 90s that was dirt cheap. BMW has a wide range of cheap and expensive. The original Mercedes in 1901 was the most power, fastest car in the world, the cars they built in the 1930s were on par with Rolls-Royce and Bentley, the 1963 Mercedes 600 was the most expensive car in the world, double the cost of a Rolls-Royce. They made lots of expensive cars. Daimler paid $37 billion to buy Chrysler and sold it for $7.4 billion. They didn't loot Chrysler of any money, they lost $29.6 billion on that deal. As far as a truck, they do make the G-wagen, they make the Unimog, the best off roader ever, and Daimler is the world's #1 producer of Class 8 trucks. I don't think pick up truck is where Mercedes-Benz wants to be, the Nissan tie in was an experiment to test the waters in Europe without them spending much money, and it was the right move, because a Merceres pick up isn't going to be a popular seller. Much like Cadillac EXT, Lincoln Blackwood, Lincoln Mark LT didn't work, there is no Lexus version of the Tundra, etc. Not a lot of market for a luxury pick up. Mercedes has the higher transaction prices than any of their peers, they also go higher up the price tier than any of their peers. I don't see a Genesis sedan with a base price of $109,000 like the S-class, used G-wagens (2019-2020) are going for an average of $173,000 right now, imagine a used Escalade or Navigator selling for $173k. But as I always say, I like competition, if Genesis or Lexus or Cadillac want to jump into the $200k price range and go against the top Mercedes bring it on. If they want to come to Formula 1 and race against Mercedes then bring it on. Here, 831 hp, 1,033 lb-ft. Where is the Genesis or Lexus rival? The CT5-V Blackwing was GM's best effort, and it is slower than a GT63 on a track, so is the BMW M5 CS and the Panamera Turbo Hybrid, and now the E-performance GT63 is even faster. The fastest 4-door in the world just put the other guys farther back in the dust.

Mercedes isn't going to make a pickup, they dipped their toe in that water and it seems decided that isn't for them. They are a luxury car/SUV company. They are showing 5 EV's in September apparently, for sure EQE, a Maybach SUV, an AMG sedan, and an electric GLB. The 5th might actually be a Smart branded product for China and Europe. AMG GT73 is a plug in hybrid debuting tomorrow, but that isn't an EV. New SL debuts in September, that has a plug-in option I think. And all of that will be on sale in 2022. Electric G-wagen is in the works, to go with the EQ-GLE, EQ-GLS or whatever they call those. Their EV line will probably be bigger than Lucid, Tesla and Rivian combined in 2023, because they have cash, manpower, and factories all over the world. I don't get why Ford would invest in a competitor that is taking away F150 sales. Unless Ford is planning to invest at a low price, what for the stock to pop, then dump the stock for a quick profit, and nothing wrong with doing that. But Rivian's market cap is more than Ford's, so Ford can't take them over, if anything it would be Rivian leading the takeover of Ford or a dreaded "merger of equals" where Rivian and Ford merge in a 50-50 deal, and then Rivian gets half of Ford's assets. I don't know, will be interesting to see how that plays out. EDIT: We don't have to wait til tomorrow, it's here, AMG GT63 E-Performance, 831 hp and 1,082 lb-ft.

My question is more if companies like Rivian or Lucid will be around in 10 years. Once the big OEMs flood the market with EV's they will give the consumers more choice, and also they will have economies of scale that will yield lower prices. Even look at Tesla, they have done mild updates over the years to the Model S, rather than come up with all new versions as a big OEM would do with their cars. I suppose they could get enough of a following and live at a high price point and hang around in the way Lotus or Aston Martin have, but every other low volume manufacture like Alfa Romeo or Maserati is part of a big conglomerate, even JLR and Volvo are owned by someone else.

BMW has the iX on sale Spring 2022, not far off from when the Rivian suv comes out. And if the Rivian truck is so great and the best truck ever, is going to outsell the F150? Answer is no. These EV brands are like boutique brands like Aston Martin or Jaguar/Land Rover that just get sold to different companies since they can’t really survive on their own.

The X5, X6 and X7 are all the Rivian price range. The X8 is coming next year, will be more more expensive than a Rivian though. The iX is supposed to start around $85k, more than a Rivian, but not so far off.

Tesla Model S was about 10 years ago is what I meant. Even the roadster went on sale in like 08 or 09 but there was no volume there. And I don't think that, but BMW has an SUV for a single person, a family, someone that wants an EV (once that iX thing is on sale, or maybe i3 is around still), a 3-row, a performance SUV, etc. Rivian has 1 option, if you don't like that one option you go to the next brand.

The Lucid Air might turn out to be a fantastic car, Rivian might build some great trucks. But if I had to bed on Toyota, VW and GM, or Lucid and Rivian, I would bet on the big guys. Because are Lucid and Rivian ever going to make $25-45k vehicles to take on Toyota, Chevy, Honda, Kia, etc? Or are their plan to stay in the luxury segment and compete with Porsche, Mercedes, BMW and Lexus? Because in the luxury segment, brand name and image matters, and if you ask 100 people on the street would you rather have a Mercedes or a Lucid Air, 99 are going to say "what the hell is a Lucid Air?" I think the competition is great, it will push everyone else to make better cars. So I am glad Lucid and Rivian and these other guys are here.

And their pricing is with $7500 tax credit that not everyone even qualifies for. If you try to build a Pure on their site it all of a sudden says starting at $77,400. And I suspect that model is like the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 that never happened. Let's see when they even deliver these things, because I bet they wait until Dream and Grand Tourings are sold out until they move on to anything under $100k. And really this is a mid-size sedan, before I thought it was more full size, but it is about the size of a 5-series. So this is M5 money, I am sure it is good in a straight line, but an M5 CS can run a 2.5 0-60 also, probably whip the on a track, and probably has a much better built interior than the Tesla cast off engineering team at Lucid has come up with. Agreed that they went with popular body styles, 3 row SUV and pick up. Good move there. But in the time it takes them to get to 6 vehicles, VW group or GM could have 20 EV's. So how does Rivian compete with that? Would you rather a Rivian SUV or a Cadillac that has a big dealer network and GM parts support? These are the challenges that Rivian and Lucid will fast. Tesla was early and got ahead in the EV game, but all the big guys have billions upon billions of cash on hand to crank out new models and carpet bomb the market.

Tesla started nearly 10 years ago, since then the Taurus, Impala, Lacrosse, XTS, CT6, MKS, Continental, Kia K900, Cadenza have died, the Avalon dies next year and I think Jag XJ does, Aston Martin Rapide is probably dead, if it isn’t who would even notice. That’s like 10 big sedans that have died. And Lucid picked full size sedan as the starting point??? No growth in that segment. And I know Rivian has 2 models, but look how long it has taken Tesla to get to 4 models, and get the truck and Roadster going. These big car companies can crank out multiple new models per year.

So a pickup with one body style and an SUV that starts at $75,000 beginning January 2022. BMW makes 7 SUVs and has 2 more coming next year. How does Rivian offer consumer choice with 1 SUV when the other guy has 9 of them?

But will Rivian have sedans? Multiple Crossovers? You don’t stay in business on 1 model, look at how much the Toyota Tundra struggles because they basically have 1 body style. And that is okay because Toyota has about 30 other models. All these startups will be small time and maybe not survive because they don’t have factory space or ability to put out a new product every year. I think the goal of Rivian and Lucid is to get acquired by another car company, but I don’t think any car company is interested in buying them.

Yeah I will need to see the Lucid on the streets and see actual performance and range numbers. Also they are like $150k and up, I question how viable a company it is selling 1 model that is a $100k plus sedan when large sedans are dying breed except maybe in Germany and China and I am not sure if Lucid will be in either place.

The Porsche 718 GT4 is about the same performance on a track as a C8 Z51. Car and Driver tested them against each other, the C8 was $86,000 as equipped and the Cayman was $105,000. And the Cayman won the comparison, the Cayman is over 400 lbs lighter, it brakes better and it grips better, gets better gas mileage too, not that people buying those care. The Corvette has more straight line speed, the Porsche has it every where else. https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/comparison-test/a33825844/2020-chevy-corvette-stingray-z51-vs-2020-porsche-718-cayman-gt4/ And sure the Z06 will be faster, we'll see how it compares to a 911 GT3 or GT2. But the other guys are getting faster too, by the time the ZR1/Zora arrives, there will be a new AMG GT, new Lamborghinis, Ferraris, Tesla Roadster, etc. But to me the Corvette still has a mediocre interior, it it light years away from a Porsche, Mercedes or Audi/Lamborghini. The Corvette is built by union workers.

Because Mercedes and Porsche are luxury brands. Chevrolet is not. And actually the Porsche 718 has very similar track times to a C8 and at similar price.

I think it is a good goal, and as batteries get better the cost will get more attainable. Look at where a Tesla or Nissan Leaf was 8 years ago vs now, big advancements, the range has basically doubled for the same cost. Now they have they range, they just need to half the cost. But I also think OEM's don't care if an entry level car is $40k, because they will just offer 10 year car loans and if they sell fewer cars but make more profit they will be fine with that. Look at right now, most of these car companies have a supply crunch, they are selling fewer cars, but they just charge more money for it.