smk4565

Why does it matter that Tesla sold more EV's than Mercedes, Porsche, GM, Ford, Toyota and Audi combined? EV's are not even 3% of global car sales, there is a lot of market space for other car companies to exploit, Tesla has 2 sedans and 2 crossovers. What about people that want a pickup, a van, a full size sedan/SUV, a compact car/suv, an off roader, a coupe, a convertible, etc. And these big OEMs, like Toyota, Ford, VW, GM probably each have 100-150 million current owners worldwide, huge customer bases to pull from, where as Tesla is basically having to always look for first time buyers to their brand, or pull from the maybe 4 million or so current Tesla owners out there. That Taycan outsold the Model S/X combined. So it is possible to beat Tesla, Porsche just did it right out of the gate. Let's see what happens when the Model 3 and Y get direct competition.

But that doesn't matter because there is no law (so far) that says you can't sell gasoline powered cars. Mercedes outsells Tesla overall, once Mercedes converts their line to EV, I would expect them to outsell them still. Tesla sold 24,390 Model S/X combined in 2021 (down 56%). Porsche sold 41,296 Taycan in 2021. First full year on market and they beat Tesla easily head to head. Q1 in 2022 Tesla sold 15k Model S/X, so if they can keep that pace up it gives them 60k, but that is a sedan and SUV, if Porsche adds an electric SUV, I am sure an SUV and Taycan combined can top 60,000 a year. And Mercedes can sell over 60k combined EQS sedan and SUV per year. And if they can beat the Model S/X, why can't they do the same against the 3/Y? They are going to have to build the Cybertruck, full size pickups are too big a market and there is a lot of profit margin in them. And secondly, off roader vehicles are hot right now, they can't build Wranglers, Broncos and 4Runners fast enough, and since that style vehicle is in demand, and there aren't 47 of them like there are FWD crossovers, there is good profit margin in them too. Cybertruck checks both boxes, full size truck segment and off road/overlander segment, it is just a no brainer.

The Mach E is nearly $20k cheaper than the Model Y, which good for it, because the Model Y is over priced. But the Mach-E sales were down 47% in February while the Ford brand overall was down 20%. I don't know if that is supply chain or just buyers not showing up, but it is the 2nd worst selling Ford after the Transit Connect, and sales down twice as much as the rest of the brand. You'd think they would put their supply chain into the Mach-E over the Edge or Escape or something. Ford isn't pricing their EV like Tesla now, nor should they, even with the discount it isn't making a big dent. GM looks to be the one that could get it right if they are way under Tesla in Price, the Equinox EV is half the cost of a Model Y if GM can deliver on that, and I assume the Equinox won't be as good, but it doesn't have to be, it just have to be the best EV out there for $30k+ which right now there is pretty much wide open market space and the cost of most gas crossovers. AMG's are niche cars too. It is 10% of Mercedes volume. He stated the Riven was a league of it's own. If that's true, Rivian should be able to take out the F150. But we all know it won't because EV's are a tiny part of the market, and by the time the masses want EVs, or when 100% of vehicles are EV's, the F150 will be EV and do anything the Rivian does and probably at a lower cost with an actual dealer network.

Doesn't matter. They are both selling cars, the powertrain behind them is irrelevant. It is like saying Toyota sells more hybrids than Ford, it doesn't matter, what matters is how many cars are they selling and how much money are they making. EV's are 2.5% of the global car market. Tesla dominates 2.5% of the market and doesn't participate in the other 97.5%.

Mercedes has Level 3 autonomous driving, while Tesla does not. Consumer Reports also stated that buyers are paying $30-50k over sticker for the EQS, the dealer mark ups are pretty big on them and people are still buying. There is no sitting on lots. When does the Rivian outsell the F150? If it is so fantastic, it should become the #1 selling pickup in the USA.

Why not Mercedes? In 2024 they will have more EV models for sale than Tesla, and Mercedes has brand name too. Mercedes outsells Tesla 2 to 1 right now world wide. Tesla had $54 billion in revenue last year with $5.5 billion in profit. Mercedes-Benz had revenue of $185 billion and profit of $25 billion, although $13 billion of that is from splitting off the truck division. The problem GM and Ford have is you can't price a Chevy or Ford SUV against a Tesla, no one is paying Tesla money for a Chevrolet crossover, when current Chevy crossover sales are tanking, Buick sales down 58% in Q1, probably supply chain issues, but if there was demand for those, GM would allocate resources there, and they obviously didn't. Where the opportunity exists is the Tesla Model Y has a base price of $63k and the Model 3 at $47k. There are a lot of customers who want an electric car and can't afford $47k or $63k, there is a massive untapped market that GM can hit with their $30k EV-quinox and their maybe $45k Blazer EV. Lots of white space under $50k price point for EV's. Then the question is does GM take over this space, or does Toyota, Hyundai, Kia get in there and gain ground, or does a Chinese car company come in.

I think GM has a chance to do well in EV, if they can deliver on things like the Equinox EV and other vehicles that are more affordable than Tesla's. The Hummer gets like a 40 MPGe, it is grossly inefficient for an EV, but it is a niche vehicle, so it doesn't really matter, it will have a small market of buyers but a that price point will turn profit. The Bolt is a weak seller, that is going to do any damage on the sales chart. The Bolt was down 96% in Q1 this year, they aren't even building them because they catch fire. If GM goes right at Tesla, they are screwed. But if they go where Tesla isn't then I think GM can gain some traction. I am less optimistic about Ford, because The Mach-E was aimed at the Model Y, it priced cheaper and still gets outsold by the Tesla. And the Mach-E trying to be performance SUV is a niche thing. Ford has to put out electric Escpape and Explorer type SUVs that can deliver on cargo space, fit adults and have a decent price. Ford is quite strong in pick up trucks and vans, especially with commercial buyers. But Ford's SUV business has been declining as Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia and Subaru have grown in the past 10-20 years.

I don’t think a matter of months is that important. The Lyric goes on sale this spring, the EQS SUV this summer and they have EQB SUV later this year in the US (already on sale in Europe) and the EQE SUV which is the Lyric competition next year. That’s 5 EV’s within the next year, 3 are SUV, and more coming after that. Audi has 2 electric EV’s now plus sport back versions of both, if you can get one since their supply chain is way messed up. What matters is how fast these companies can bring new product and if they can actually keep their production line running.

They aren't really late, Cadillac, Lincoln, Lexus, Infiniti, Genesis, Acura, Alfa Romeo, Maserati have a collective zero EV's on sale today. All 4 German luxury brands have at least 1 available today in the USA, Audi has 5, BMW 2, Mercedes 1 with EQE, EQB and EQS SUV on sales this year to give them 4 and EQE SUV by end of year or next year for the 5th. Porsche has 1, obviously more coming. I wouldn't say they are late, BMW had the i3 eight years ago and they were too early. I think this group is right on time because the market is now interested in EV's where as 5 years I don't think EV's were 1% of the global auto market.

Tesla sold 936,000 cars in 2021. Mercedes Cars: 2,093,476. Cars and Vans: 2,427,686 BMW (not counting Mini or Rolls) sold 2,213,795 cars which was their all time best. Tesla is growing fast, but they are still over a million cars a year behind, and that growth rate may slow once all 40-50 car brands in the world have EV's. And maybe Tesla gets the Cybertruck rolling, follows it up with a smaller pick up or commercial van and gets a lot of commercial business, maybe they bring out a car under the Model 3 to hit a lower price point and keep this rapid growth rate up. I think what Tesla does and what the other car makers do to try to stop Tesla will be quite interesting over the next 5 years. I showed the EQS SUV interior (because Mercedes already put the photo out even though the full debut isn't until April 17), which is a direct competitor to the Model X. Apples to Apples comparison, both are 3 row electric SUV's over $100k And the hyperscreen is standard on all wheel drive EQS's.

Wait, why is Cadillac a "true luxury line" ? As I just stated the XT4 costs less than the Mercedes GLA that you say is mass market appliance or whatever. The Cadillac CT5 (their top sedan) costs less than the CLA. Cadillac sells 3 products (of their 6) that are below the Mercedes CLA, which everyone here likes to say is cheap and down market. And Cadillac has an XT3 coming that will slow below the XT4, the test mule out on public roads so I assume on sale next year. On to Tesla, the weak spot of Tesla is they have a 4 vehicle line up and the Model S and X are dated and aging. Cybertruck and Roadster have been delayed. They don't have a full size SUV or car and they don't have any compact vehicles either. And it takes them a long time to get new product out. The Germans will put EV's out faster and quickly have more choices than Tesla does. Supply chain and chip shortages are hurting getting all those out, but Audi has basically 3 EV's and sport back body styles on 2 of them, so they call that 5 EV's. Mercedes will have 5 EV's on sale in the USA by next year, maybe 6, Audi should have the electric A6 next year. By 2025 the Germans luxury brands will have more EV's than Tesla, and they'll have better build quality and interiors and fresher styling, that is how they beat them. Tesla does have brand name strength and mostly they vertically integrate (although Mercedes is going to make their own batteries, semiconductors and software also) so Tesla can maybe deal with supply chain issues better than most since they do a lot in house. Tesla is strong and in good position, but they also haven't had everyone come after them all at once before.

I don't really want to look up 10 years worth of sales data, so I'll just compare 2011 to 2021 so it is a 10 year spread. 2011: Fast Forward to 2021: GLA: 14,322 R-class: 2,385 GLB: 26,667 GLK: 24,310 GLC 51,805 M-class: 35,835 GLE: 65,074 GL-class: 25,139 GLS: 24,282 G-class: 1,191 G: 8,523 Total: 88,860 Total: 168,873 They nearly doubled SUV sales! Also how is Mercedes not a luxury car maker? And keep in mind the Cadillac XT4, Lincoln Corsair and Lexus UX are priced below the GLA. And nothing at Cadillac, Lincoln or Lexus is priced like a G-glass, S-class, SL, AMG GT, EQS or Maybach. In fact, Acura, Lexus, Infiniti, Volvo, Alfa Romeo, Genesis, Cadillac, Tesla, Lincoln, Audi, BMW and Porsche combined have 5 vehicles with a base price over $100k, The Tesla Model X, the 911, Audi e-Tron GT, R8 and Lexus LC Convertible (the coupe starts under $100k). Mercedes by themselves has 5 starting over $100k, and we have an EQS SUV debuting later this month. And I am using base model price, so like an Audi RS7 is over $100k, but the base A7 is not. If the EQS SUV is over $100k, then Mercedes has more $100k+ vehicles than all 12 competitors combined! And I think the EQS SUV is going to put a dent in the dated Model X, because this interior p vs The 2nd interior could be from a Mazda, with their dinky little tacked on Samsung tablet, doesn't look like a technology leader to me.

The SAAR in 2016 was a record 18.4 million units. In 2020 it was 12.9 million and in 2021 15 million. Mercedes is down 12.1% from their peak while the overall market is down 18.5% from 2016 to 2021. Cadillac is down 35% from their mid 2010s peak. Tesla is probably the only one that is up over 5 years, outside of Rolls or Ferrari that are so low volume.

Tesla has that image now, because they were first in market with a good EV and not a compliance car piece of crap. Tesla isn’t the first to have Level 3 self driving in the USA though and their Model S and Y are pretty dated, 10 years on market with 2 minor refreshes. Now is the time for the competition to flood the market with EV’s and have brand new product to make Tesla look dated.

And what did their SUVs do? Because Lincoln killed all their sedans, Cadillac is down to 2 sedans, and no coupes, Lexus killed the GS, Acura killed most of its sedans to get down to 1 and the Integra is coming back, Infiniti killed the Q45 and M-line/Q70. About half the car brands are just giving up on sedans/coupes/convertibles.

And from the same review: ” "The GLS feels the most car-like, and it's easily the sportiest drive of the four. Easily the driver's choice," Morrison said.” And Car and Driver ranked the Navigator the 9th best large luxury SUV on this list https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g31095534/best-luxury-suvs-in-2020-ranked/ Since they broke it down with sub models, 5 of the top 8 are Mercedes and the X7 was #1. So depends on what publication you want to believe.

And yet with the lower price, the Corsair still has poor sales, really poor compared to the RDX and NX. And the Nautilus which is larger than the than all the cars on that list and also starts at $43k is a slow seller, headed to the grave.

2016 was their peak, 2017 just 2000 cars less, as was 2015. Quite stable in the 370s for those 3 years. Tesla really got going with Model 3 and Y in 2018, so that probably hurt Mercedes, and then the pandemic years. Also look at their market share 2020 was their best year yet, 2021 their second best year. And dropping from 374k to 329k isn't as bad as a drop from 182k to 128k, Cadillac lost like 1/3 of their volume.

There is supposed to be something electric but if a Mustang Mach-E is $45-65k range, the Edge is bigger, so do they price that more, or price it the same and just pull back on performance? Either way the Lincoln would be at least $10k more, so maybe $55-75k for a small-midsize crossover? The Nautilus is a bust at $45k, who wants to pay $65k for an electric Nautilus with a new name? People will walk right past that and go get a Tesla for the brand name. I am talking about both sales and critical reviews. If you ran up a comparison of the Escalade, Grand Wagoneer, Lexus LX, Navigator and the Infiniti QX80, the Navigator would finish 2nd to last in from any publication. And most publications would rate the unibody GLS, X7, and Range Rover higher, unless your primary use is towing and cargo hauling. The Corsair is fancy escape at the end of the day, put that against an Alfa Stelvio, Maserati Grecale, Porsche Macan, Genesis G70, X3, GLC, Q5 and that crew will stomp it in performance and Lexus beats it in comfort, reliability, resale, etc. It does take time, but you have to have best in class product for years to overcome the mess Lincoln is in. And they don't have best in class product now, they have terrible resale value, poor image and most buyers aren't even going to give them a look. They could have tried to go a green route and make all Lincolns hybrids as standard, maybe try to steal som thunder of Lexus, but they didn't do that. The brand just doesn't really stand for anything.

This is Cadillac's problem, sales since 2013: It has basically been a steady decline, and 2021 was probably a record year for the Escalade, they sold over 40,000 of them (up 65%). The rest of the lineup outside of the Escalade is really performing poorly. Cadillac has a good ATP because the Escalade is 1/3rd of their sales. And at the rate they are going, they'll kill off CT4 and CT5 in a few years so sales will drop, ATP will go up. Although there is an XT3 crossover test mule driving around, yet to be seen what that is or what market it is for. Now that that full size SUV segment has Wagoneer/Grand Wagoner and a new Lexus Land Cruiser, plus a competitive Sequoia Hybrid, and a new Range Rover this year, that is a lot of new competition. If Cadillac sales keep dropping they are going to be flirting with the 100k line pretty soon.

I don't think Cadillac is flying high either, but at least they have more than 4 and soon to be 3 products like Lincoln. Lincoln's problem is no one bought their sedans, and sedan market is shrinking, so they can't expand there, a sports car wouldn't really fit Lincoln's image, so they can't go there. Going above Navigator is like Cadillac going above Escalade, neither corporation understands that or could conceive selling a vehicle smaller than a Navigator at double the price of a Navigator. So Lincoln is kind of pigeon holed themselves into small, medium large SUV's and that's it. Hard to fix that or grow the brand, unless you make best in segment in all 3, and that isn't going to happen on Ford platforms with Ford powertrains.

These guys know what they are doing, the Taycan whips the Panamera in sales, so I don't see why electric versions or electric equivalents of the Macan and Cayenne won't sell as well or better than the gas counter parts. I expect all their SUVs and 4-door cars will be EV by 2030, and they'll have a solid state battery 911 by then and that might be EV only then.

Lincoln has better differentiation from the Ford counterparts now than they have in decades, so in that regard they are better. However I don't see much being done to gain brand recognition, they are down to a 4 vehicle line up and are killing the Nautilus next year, and the segments they do compete in they aren't even near the top.

It will be interesting to see where it is in 2025 or 2030. If these investors and industry insiders are right, Tesla could outsell Ford or GM by 2030. The problem with most of the traditional OEM's as they are introducing EV's going into Tesla price territory and leaving their traditional price territory, aka a $50k Kia EV6. This I think is a danger for the legacy OEM's as they kill off their entry level cars and just focus on big SUVs, pick ups and and EV's that are expensive, they could price out some of their customer base. Meanwhile Tesla keeps expanding. But if the OEM's can get their EV's in order and beat Tesla on quality (shouldn't be hard to do) and on price, then maybe they can take them out.

Tesla was #2 in profit per unit in 2021, just $14 behind Mercedes-Benz, plus with that market cap, Tesla seems like it will be hard to beat. Here is a video from Outline ranking the car makers in revenue and profits. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoF741Lw954