smk4565

Every car company sells every car they make. Tesla sold 190,000 Model Y's in the USA in 2021, Mach-E 27,000. And the current wait for a Model Y is 7 months, yet people are still waiting for it, rather than buying a Ford or VW iD4. So when the gas cars are gone, I don't see how Ford competes with Tesla. Blackwing was really low volume, like in the hundreds, CT4 was down 48% in Q4 (although up for the year, not sure if it had a full sales year in 2020) and CT5 was down 65% on Q4. Shouldn't Blackwing be elevating those cars and getting more people to buy them? And where are the V-series SUVs?

Mercedes will be fine. Their EV's cost what their gasoline cars cost. Chevy and Ford's EV's (and Hyundai and VW) cost double what their gas cars cost. GMC never sold a vehicle over $100k before, Cadillac tried the Allante, XLR, STS-V, CT6 and those all bombed because outside of the Escalade, no one is paying $100k adjusted for inflation for a Cadillac. So I am not sure where all these buyers for $100k Cadillac and GMC's are going to come from. The Mustang Mach-E was the worst selling Ford SUV last year, the Mustang coupe had it's worst sales year in history and still outsold the Mach-E by almost double. In December the Mach-E was the worse selling Ford outside of the GT which I think is out of production and the Fusion which for sure is out of production. And simple reason for that, most of the car buying public isn't looking to spend $50-60k on a small Ford crossover. Same reason the VW iD4 is a dud, and the Hyundai Ionic 5 will be a dud.

They make 9 SUV's right now. They have 2 electric SUVs coming over the next year and the EQE, so they'll have the same number of EV's on the market as Tesla. They probably went EQS first due to the range and aerodynamics which makes sense and to get EQE out quickly after it due to how many parts are probably shared between the 2.

It's not about what they built in the past, it is about what the market wants now. The Wrangler outsells every GM vehicle except the Silverado and Sierra, if you add Gladiator and Wrangler together they outsell the Sierra. The Bronco is off to a strong sales start, Toyota sold 129k units of an 11 year old SUV that they probably paid off the tooling for in 2015. GM needs a Blazer that fits the nameplate. And they aren't alone, Nissan better get the Xterra back fast and I think Toyota could revive the FJ Cruiser with a removable roof or soft roof option. And whether those are all gas, EV or both, whatever, but Nissan and GM especially are leaving money on the table right now, Toyota could probably get even more (no Land Cruiser here, only the Lexus version, no FJ, etc.)

Mercedes isn't a pick up truck maker. They make cars for plenty of other segments and beat their competitors in most of those segments. GM is a direct competitor to Toyota, Ford and Stellantis. I don't really care if they make the Blazer another Camaro looking SUV to duke it out with the Toyota Venza and soon to be discontinued Ford Edge or an off roader as I am not buying one either way. But if I saw Jeep Wrangler sales outselling every vehicle I make except for a full size pick up, and Jeep getting $40-60k for them too, I'd want a piece of that market rather than trying to out build Toyota on a front drive, mid-size, 2 row crossover which is a losing battle for a smaller market segment.

Which of those beats a Wrangler or Bronco off road?

Chevy makes zero off road SUVs, Mercedes at least makes one. The Wrangler sold 204,610 units in 2021, add in another 89,712 Gladiators, increases of 2% and 16% respectively. And the Wrangler outsold all GM vehicles except the Silverado and Sierra. The Blazer in 2021 sold 70,325 down 26%. Toyota 4Runner sold 129,052, up 13% (for a vehicle with a last major redesign in 2010) Ford sold 8,287 Broncos in November, given a full year I'd assume they will be hitting 100k a year, they sold over 101k Bronco Sports already this year. GM missed the mark on the Blazer.

Also the EV Blazer better be an off roader we like the 4Runner, Wrangler, Bronco, etc. Maybe not a removable roof, but off road focus, which is what they should have done the last time rather than another front drive 4-cylinder crossover.

I saw the EQXX, I like that it weighs 3800 lbs, not 5,000 and I like the body shape. Not really a fan of the front end, it needs more classic Mercedes look, but it’s a concept so it will change. I imagine this is the basis for the C-class level EV.

All EV's are going to look like the EQS or be SUV's with sloped rear ends in the crossover coupe vein due to aero. Mercedes is just ahead of the curve, I don't like how the EQS looks, but it has a .20 cD, and that EQXX concept which looks better has a .18 cD. And more importantly that car is 3,800 lbs with 620 mile range. These EV's are stupid heavy, so either they need a battery breakthrough that significantly cuts weight or crazy aerodynamics to get range so they don't need a huge battery.

Let's see if these $40k EV Silverado's or F150 Lightnings really exist. Much like the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 that never happened, and $44,990 is the cheapest Model 3 you can get now. Maybe GM and Ford will deliver on that, but I wouldn't be surprised if they only build the top trim versions for years and by the time they get to the low trim, it is a lot more than originally promised.

Avalanche fans will be happy with that Silverado Electric. But the $105k launch edition and even some of the other trims seem too expensive compared to a V8 gas Silverado LT that is like $50k. The Equinox EV looks ugly, but if they can pull off a $30k starting price then that is a huge win.

Anyone wanting an EV that wants to avoid dealer mark up, here is your answer.

This is why the dealer model isn't that good, and might not be that sustainable because it doesn't do anything for customer service. And once the supply chain catches up, there will be dealers fighting each other to sell cars under MSRP again.

The Panamera had the 4-door car lap record on the Nurburgring before Mercedes beat them. It actually has the same time as a C8 with Z51 performance package, maybe even a couple tenths quicker. Cadillac hasn’t taken the CT5 there, waiting in that and the Z06.

Looks super bland and boring, but if they make it totally anonymous looking then they can put a Chrysler bare on it in the USA, a Puegeot badge on it in France, and Opel badge in Germany, etc without changing anything more than the badge.

Electra makes sense as it fits the product and is a name from their past. I assume this will be a small-midsize crossover like Mach-e, Model Y size.

And yet this competitor vehicle seems more luxurious and better equipped... The Blackwings do have impressive performance, but why haven't they expanded that to SUVs, like Porsche, Mercedes, Lamborghini, Aston Martin, Maserati, Land Rover, Jaguar, BMW, Audi, and soon to be Ferrari have done?

I thought Model S was like 195-196 inches long, they used to be, I see it is 197 now, but it was never a full size car, it’s like the size of an early 2000s Pontiac Grand Prix, much closer to an E-class than an S-class. I think the Model S Plaid, M5 CS, AMG GT 4-door, and top end Panamera and Taycan all beat a CT5 Blackwing in a straight line and on a track, and the CT5 has a bad interior. Those cars cost more than a CT5, but that goes back to Cadillac not going up market outside of the Escalade. And the Escalade is nice but there are nicer vehicles out there, the Escalade lives a lot off name recognition, which it deserves, it built the reputation for being big and full of “bling” and people pay it. But Cadillac hasn’t been able to copy that formulation on any other product.

The CT4 is bigger than the Tesla Model 3 on the outside, the CT4 just has bad use of interior space and the price on the CT4 and CT5 are too low. The CT5 is the same size as a Model S. The size of those cars is fine, the problem is they were designed to bargain basement price chosen by bean counters. They should have made them better cars at a higher price, maybe they'll do that with their EV plan. I still think brands will do at least 4 SUVs, plus everyone wants an off roader, so that could be 5 products, then a couple sedans, etc. Consumers still like variety and choice. Which is why I think companies like Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are not going to be as competitive as people think, they can't crank out new product fast enough, Tesla has brought 4 cars to market in 10 years, big OEM's can do that in 1 year. All those Cadillac's in their line up are cheaper than the BMW or Mercedes equivalent of equal size except the Escalade which starts at the same place as the X7 and GLS, but the Escalade tops out at a lower price than those two. But when Cadillac goes all EV, maybe they'll go head to head with the Germans on price and we'll see what happens.

Since GM does quarterly, I found first 3 quarter sales Escalade 30,841 Cadillac total: 95,925 So that's 32% Escalade. And in Q3, they sold 10,125 Escalades out of 22,519 total, so that's 44.4% in Q3, which is why that September ATP is so high. Look at their Q3, the brand outside of the Escalade is collapsing, which I assume is part that no one cares about the XT4 or their sedans, but also because GM only has so many computer chips, and the ones they have go into pickups and full size SUVs. And rightly so, every car company is putting their chip allotment into their expensive stuff and cutting production on their low end. But at some point, you can't only have top end models and push expensive ones, which is what it seems like will happen with EV's, high dollar, low volume

Probably 50% of Cadillac sales are Escalades, it has to be a huge percentage to have an average that high. If Cadillac killed the CT4, CT5, XT5, XT5, and XT6, their ATP would be $100k, but all their dealers would probably go out of business. ATP only matters in in-segment comparisons. I actually thought Mercedes had a high ATP given that their supply chain cuts were to V8 models aside from the S-class, so they did $75k with their 4 and 6 cylinder cars. Agree though that Cadillac needs more upmarket stuff. When they do these electric SUVs, they should have V-series on all, and they should have 3 SUVs that can do the Nurburgring under 8 minutes. And they should also have a “Brougham” trim or whatever they want their Denali to be called, and that should be their Maybach or Bentley fighter. I think Cadillac is afraid to go up there in price because they don’t think it will sell, but you don’t know unless you try.

Because Chevy, Ford, GMC are selling higher trim pick ups and Big SUVs. The lower trim stuff they cut back, the Escape is down 30%, GM sold like 270 Malibus last quarter. I am aware that people will spend $60k on a Silverado or Sierra, I question how many are going to spend $50k on a EV Equinox or Terrain or Malibu. And maybe these car companies don’t care and would rather sell half as many cars and just sell expensive ones. It is, I think that’s why it isn’t here and it was a car they had to build, whereas EQS, EQE are cars they want to build.

Right, these EV’s are a fraction of sales in the same segment because they cost too much. The Mach-E is smaller than a Lexus RX and costs the same, and of course people are going to buy a Lexus over a Ford. And this is why I think Ford, Chevy, Hyundai, Kia, VW, etc are in for a tough time. These EV’s are too expensive for their current customer bases. Unless someone has a breakthrough in battery cost.

24,000 Mach-E sales for the first 11 months, less than the GLC, less than half the BMW X3 volume. The Lexus RX sold over 84,000 in the first 3 quarters. The isn't really penetrating that luxury segment. And since it isn't a luxury car, if you compare it to the Rav4 or CR-V which are the same size and non-luxury brands, those sell about 300-400,000 a year. So if we get to an all EV world, where there is no Escape (as we know it) and the Mach-E is the small-mid size SUV, the biggest segment in the industry, they would need to get Mach-E up to the 250,000 unit per year sales level. Or Ford needs to make an Escape EV that is $28k that can do 250k units in volume. You can't bank a company's future on a vehicle that sells 25k units a year and that goes for Ford, Hyundai, Ionic, VW iD4 or whoever else. The GLC being a converted ICE platform car is sold in Europe where they need the EV offset for their gas engines due to emissions. Mercedes does sell more 500 hp cars than any other brand, and more that Cadillac, Lincoln, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti, Genesis and Tesla combined. They have to pay the emissions piper. And we are getting EQE, EQS SUV and EQE SUV in 2022 and more coming after that,