smk4565
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Everything posted by smk4565
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Agreed about the Volt sales. GM will use up a lot of their plug-in and EV credits too. Maybe the 2017 Bolts have a credit, but in 2018 they will probably have used their credits up too. Then you get down to how good is the vehicle for the sticker price, with no incentives to buy it. That favors Tesla well. People talk about the $42,000 Model 3 like it is a lot of money to Tesla fan base, it isn't really. There are Toyota Avalons and Audi A4s selling for $42,000, the Model 3 could eat their lunch. Think of the $55,000 Model 3 that could be faster than a Corvette or BMW M3. Then the Tesla looks like insane value. We really need to see part 2 of the reveal and get the other info. I am excited about the car though.
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Johan will be on the April 7th episode of Autoline.
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The Bolt and Model 3 don't compete because one car has 300,000 pre-orders, the other has squat.
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More will be revealed at Part 2 of the Model 3 reveal. I think we'll have a better idea of the car then, but Tesla does not make slow cars. That will be the big difference between the Model 3 and the Bolt. Doesn't look like the Bolt will offer all wheel drive, the Tesla will. And a lot of the price upgrade on a Tesla is bigger battery and adding the second motor. Elon probably said $42,000 is typical price because he figures many will get the dual motor car with a higher range.
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I think Cadillac should continue with the XT5 as is and introduce a 2nd mid size crossover on Alpha. Make it 192 inches long, $53k base price, 335 HP V6 standard, twin turbo V6 and V8 optional that would push it up as high as $89,000. Mid-size crossovers are the hottest market, they should hit both ends of it. XT5 vs Lexus, XT6 vs Porsche and BMW.
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I don't think it is fake story, I do think CT8 is dead. On the mid-cycle refresh of CT6 in 3-4 years they could spruce up the interior a bit, makes some more features standard and drop the base engine, and move price to $65k base. That pushes it a little up market, and a little farther away form CTS. BMW and Mercedes have a Cayenne-like model. The GLE and X5. The Cayenne is the same size as a Cadillac XT5, every dimension is about in inch apart. A Cayenne is 2 inches longer than a GLE, an inch wider, and 3 inches lower. Parked side by side you couldn't tell the difference. The GLE and Cayenne both have a 300 hp V6 base, both offer twin turbo V8s with 500+ hp. They are pretty similar. A base Cayenne also weighs 4488 lbs, a Cayenne Turbo with the 520 hp V8 is 4,800 lbs. No where near 6,000, so that 4,800 lb Cadillac SUV better have 500 hp in it. This is also why I have said for years, really since the SRX left Sigma platform, that Cadillac needs rear drive crossovers. These Chevy/Buick platform vehicles won't be able to support the performance variants to compete with the Euro crossovers.
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Better to cancel the CT8 now rather than spend several hundred million dollars on it, and have the S-class squash it. Jaguar might drop the XJ after this model run. That big car segment could be the 4 Germans (if you count the Panamera) and the cheaper Lexus LS and that's it. Large sedans are a small volume segment. I bet the 2nd generation CT6 becomes CT7 and goes up about $10,000 in base price, better interior, no 4-cyldiner, standard turbo V6. This will position it better against the Lexus LS and Genesis G90. ATS/CTS become CT3 and CT5 and that gives them 3 sedans which is enough. They'll roll out a bunch of crossovers/SUVs whatever you want to call a tall vehicle.
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If there was a dream car garage for 4+ liters in 2025, I bet we'd have a hard time coming up with 5 new cars to put it in. In the 3 and 4 liter garages there were a lot of new cars, as you get into the 5, 6, 7+ liter you can see how the classic cars got more and more common.
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Well I think we can all agree that the 320i and the ATS 2.5 are both bad cars. Neither hold a candle to the Tesla Model 3 that with the $7,500 tax credit on the first 200,000 cars sold will undercut both of them in price. Not if you get any options as the 3 will be mostly 50K-65K by the time you get the better battery and the better anything else. Then you factor in the that Tesla has about 25,000 Tax credits coming that are being eaten up buy the S and X model now. By the time the 3 arrives they may not have any to offer unless the government offers more over the 200K they have used. Even Musk tweeted that the 3 will be closer to $42K by the time they start to deliver them. Must tweeted the average price will be $42k. As with most cars with a $35k base, with options you get to $42k for an average. If you want the base battery, you can still get it for $35k and with autopilot. You can't get Super Cruise standard on a Cadillac ATS. There will be a $55-60k Model 3 and it will probably be faster than a Corvette. And what does a Corvette cost? Oh right, $55-60k base.
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The AMG cars have transmission, steering and suspension tuned for performance, the AWD system is more rear biased as well, so there is more mechanical enhancement than just more horsepower and some wheels and sporty front facia. And you have to remember a C43 or E43 has a 0-60 time of 4.5 seconds. That is still pretty fast. And it isn't like they took away the hand built 500 hp engines, they are still there.
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I have a 2008 E550 with the AMG sport package, the car has 7 AMG badges on it (4 wheels, 2 exhaust tips, 1 trunk). So I agree with your point, they basically already made this car, but now call it Mercedes-AMG E43 rather than Mercedes-Benz E550. All they did was go from E350, E550, E63 to E300, E43, E63. It is still a 3 step engine lineup, aside from the diesel which they usually offer.
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Cadillac has 3 VSports and 2 Vs (IIRC). Mercedes is going to have FORTY-EIGHT AMGs. Do you REALLY not see any difference? Because Cadillac is weak. As are Infiniti, Lexus, Acura, etc. Mercedes for years has been the best at smooth ride, bank vault solid luxury. So now they decided to be the best at performance too. This is about sticking it to BMW and Porsche. They don't want people going to the former Ultimate driving machine or to Porsche for their performance luxury car, they want them. These are big spenders that Porsche conning to spend $1,000 on leather trim air vents. Now these people will buy superior Mercedes-AMG's.
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This is all spot on. Cadillac PR says they aren't interested in volume because they have no volume. Let's suppose GM makes $5,000 profit on a Cadillac, $2,500 on a Buick or GMC, and $1,000 on a Chevy. Wouldn't they want to sell more Cadillacs since that is where the profit margins are? Let's supposed Escalade sales doubled next year. Would the Escalade be a less profitable vehicle? Would less people want it? The answer is no, GM would just rake in even more profit, the Escalade wouldn't suffer in any way. I am not saying Cadillac should make a version of the Cruze and sell it for $28,995 to compete with the Acura ILX. That is a bad way to chase volume. I am saying that Cadillac needs more CTS/ATS sales and rear drive performance crossovers that have big margins. Porsche is the classic example, even 10 or so years ago they had 911 and Boxter, making nice margins. Then they put out the Cayenne, Panamera and Macan, the total brand sales volume triples, yet they are making $20,000 per car profit. Per unit profit is up, and sales volume tripled. That is kind of thinking Cadillac needs.
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Well I think we can all agree that the 320i and the ATS 2.5 are both bad cars. Neither hold a candle to the Tesla Model 3 that with the $7,500 tax credit on the first 200,000 cars sold will undercut both of them in price.
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276,000 pre-orders. Unheard of demand.
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These F Sport packages on any Lexus are a joke. They are charing more for a mesh grille and different wheels, which probably doesn't cost any much more to make than the standard car. Why isn't there a power bump to go with any of these F Sports? People that buy this dressed up Toyotas are fools. This is $46,000 for a Rav4 Turbo with leather.
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252,000 orders for the Model 3 now. This for a car that hasn't had a single advertisement or tv commercial made for it. I agree with Sauviloquent. Most automakers are worried about selling trucks or whatever their cash cow is, they haven't thought about 10 years down the road. I will say Mercedes is working on an electric car platform that will produce 2 sedans and 2 crossovers. That is an area they need to steer money to, as it looks like the Model 3 will put a hurt on the C-class.
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You would think with you and I repeating this at some point it would stick but????? Suppose CT8 costs $500 million to develop, which is actually cheap for a car, but we'll assume most of the work was spent on CT6 or other GM product. If they make $10,000 profit per CT8 sold (which is a strong number, but doable for a $100k car), they need to sell 50,000 cars just to break even. If the car costs $1 billion or the profit margin is lower, it could be as many as 100,000 units to break even. Let's split the difference and say 75,000 units is break even, they would need to sell 15,000 per year for a 6 year life cycle just to break even. With only China and U.S. sales they could probably hit that, but at that low volume they aren't making any money. They probably need more like 30,000 units a year to make money on the car. The XLR was low volume, and how did that work out? It lost money and got cancelled. Even Jaguar was thinking of ending the XJ or making the XJ a large crossover because sales have fallen.
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I am not saying make the CTS cheeper, I am saying sell 300,000 CTS per year and raise the base price $3,000 as well. $60,000 ATP times 300,000 units = $18 billion in sales. At a 10% margin that is $1.8 billion in profit. That alone would represent 20% of GM's total net income for 2015. I think they should have given Cadillac $24 billion for new product, not $12B. If Cadillac is #1 profit margin brand, it should get the most product. There are plenty of people spending $40-50k (or more) on Explorers, pickups, Chevy Tahoes, Avalons/Maximas, etc. Vehicles not from a luxury brand, but yet still cost $50k. Cadillac should try to steal all those customers. Why pay $47k for an Explorer when for $52 you could get a Cadillac SUV or CTS, it is just $20 more a month. That could even be their billboard.
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That is nowhere even close to comparable to what Balthazaar is talking about and you know it. And your Escalade logic can be easily applied to the fools who continue to buy the fifty year old G-Wagon. I'm sure MB gets a good chuckle on their way to the bank each day, as a result. His original point is how AMG cars depreciate fast, and cost $50,000 or more in depreciation. So let's compare 2 cars using NADA projections. An S550 with a $97,400 MSRP depreciates $64,299, but an E63 with $101,700 depreciates $56,364. So the AMG brand car holds higher % of value and loses less total dollars. That debunks his theory that AMG badges hurt resale value, they help it. An Escalade Platinum 4WD with $91,950 MSRP loses $56,333 in 5 years of depreciation. Loses 61.2% of value over 5 years. Let's compare to the G550, $115,400 MSRP, depreciation of $62,981. Loses 54.6% of value over 5 years. So yes it loses more total dollars, but it costs $24,000 more when new. Throw in a 3rd vehicle, a 2016 GL550 with MSRP of $91,300, virtually the same as the Escalade Platinum. The GL550 loses $49,843 over 5 years, over $6,000 less than an Escalade will lose. Balthazar wanted to say how horrible of a purchase a Mercedes is because it looses a big dollar amount in money, the Escalade is even worse, why not criticize it? That is my counter to the argument, personally I don't think the people spending $100,000 on a vehicle could care at all how it depreciates. These are people that have money to burn, they'll spend 1 million on a house, $50,000 a year on property taxes and not really care. Personally, I also like to buy a used car, after that first 3 years of depreciation has hit.
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Wouldn't GM be better off if they were selling 300,000 Cadillac CTS per year (globally) at a $5,000 per car margin? If you told any exec at GM would you rather sell 300,000 Cadillacs or 300,000 Malibus, 100% of them would take 300,000 Cadillacs and zero Malibus. This "Cadillac needs to limit volume to be exclusive" mentality is an excuse for poor sales. Should they limit the Escalade to 15,000 units per year to keep it exclusive, and turn away another 15,000 people willing to spend $85,000 on their product?
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The Model S battery pack is $10,000 for 60 kW and $12,000 for 85 kW. If they can get the battery and electric motor down to like $5,000 then you are getting close to cost of a gasoline engine/transmission, etc. They have work to do, but as cost drops look out. The higher trim Model 3 is expected to do 0-60 in under 4 seconds. So that is Corvette level performance in a $50,000 sedan that seats 5 and has 2 trunks worth of storage space.
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By that logic, a Chevy Spark is a better car to buy than an Escalade. And Escalade will lose $54,000 in depreciation in 5 years. The Escalade has a 5 year cost to own of $87,000 according to NADA guides. Yet it is Cadillac's number 2 seller and GM's #1 profitable car. Why are people buying Escalades? If depreciation is so bad and driving customers away, they should just stop making the Escalade by that logic. Which of course makes no sense, they will keep building Escalades as long as there are people willing to pay for them. And GM will take their money and laugh all the way to the bank.
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I know the current (or proposed) Model 3 isn't the price of a Camry, I mean 10 years down the road. Once the Gigafactory is up and running they will produce over 50% of the lithium ion batteries in the world. That kind of scale along with technology improving will drive down the cost of the battery. So what if the 2nd generation Model 3 is $25,000? Then the consumer has a choice between a Tesla or a Camry/Accord type product for equal money, with the Tesla having better performance. The Model 3 is $35,000 base (which includes Autopilot) and expected to be $42,000 for the average car, since buyers will take options. Then take $7500 off those numbers for tax credit. I think the C-class, 3-series, A4, IS, ATS, etc are all going to take a sales hit. Those 200,000 buyers are coming from somewhere. Even if they are driving a Camry now, but buying a Tesla next time, that is still a lost potential sale for Toyota/Lexus. Lots of hypothetical with the battery cost, I know, only time will tell how it will play out. They need to be able to get production up to meet the demand as well. If they can pull it off though, they could make a huge impact.
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Cadillac's current management did nothing at Infiniti, and while head of Audi USA, what did he really do? They are selling the same Audi around the world, and Audi does worse in the USA than they do in Europe or China, and Audi has grown in the USA since Johan left. And the current plan is to make a Cadillac Enclave, a Cadillac Terrain, and, a CT8 that won't sell. That is the path to success?
