smk4565

BYD is making electric buses and school busses in California. There has been talk of their cars coming here for a while, eventually they will. They are #2 in the world in EV sales, #1 in the world in EV + plug-in hybrid sales. All these companies talk about orders and reservations, but how many of those are just people looking to flip it for profit if they get an early one, and once that opportunity goes away they can just cancel the reservation. I'd rather see actual sales, the Cybertruk at one point had 1 million reservations, but they have sold zero o f them so who really cares until they actually sell them.

BYD will come eventually, and other Chinese cars will likely follow. If GM gets up to scale in 2024 and is rolling they can make a big impact. And since Cybertruck really won't be hitting volume until 2024, if GM can build their pickups at a faster volume they can block that threat off. And Ford can build a gas F150 every 52 seconds, but they can't make EV's at that rate. That's why this is all up for grabs. Whoever can make EVs that are actually affordable and not $100k sports sedans or $100k trucks, but run of the mill $35k crossovers that you can sell 400,000 a year of is going to be a big winner.

I am just saying if GM wants to capitalize, they need to scale up faster than VW, Toyota or Ford do or before the Chinese cars get here. And the same can be said for anyone else, whoever moves too late or slow will be left out.

BYD is doing quite well also in EV sales and targeting 4 million EV's in 2023. I assume the clock is ticking for when they decide to hit the US market with low cost EV's. The tax credit will help the domestics, but they better be ready for that too. I get it takes time to ramp up, but if BYD is at 4 million next year, 5 million+ in 2024 when GM is tagging 400,000 in 2024, that is a lot of ramping up that GM is behind on. And I think being a first mover is important with this EV switch.

It took Tesla that long because they had to build factories. A couple years ago Tesla had 1 factory capable of 500,000 units per year. Now they have 4 factories and more coming. GM, Ford, Hyundai, Toyota, etc have many factories already. GM has had the Bolt on sale for 5 years already and they are still at a 40,000 a year capacity for it with a 70,000 forecast for 2023. That's a fairly slow ramp up, when the Bolt with a tax credit next year should be the #1 selling car in America.

There might be better options, but Tesla is the only one with any production scale. You have to wait for a Hyundai or Kia because they can only make like 50,000 a year globally. They should be making 500,000 a year, but they can't. So all these car companies keep advertising EV's and getting people interested, then they have no supply, so people just go buy a Tesla.

But Tesla even with build quality issues and what are relatively high prices for their cars are still selling at an incredible rate. The Model Y is on pace to be the number 1 selling vehicle in the world next year. I don’t think the Model Y by any means is the best car or best value, but it’s the Model T of the EV car market. The Equinox could be the best EV ever and it won’t matter if they can only make 40,000 per year.

So now GM says they will produce 400,000 EV, across 2022, 2023 and first half of 2024. With 70,000 Bolts next year being the volume leader. That’s not enough volume, and that’s why this is still all up for grabs. If people want EV’s and you can’t meet demand customers will go elsewhere. This is more of a race to build capacity rather than build the best car. And this is no different than the 1910’s when most cars were hand built low volume and then Ford found a way to make a million Model T’s a year. They won because they had the most capacity, not because the Model T was a great car.

It's about the size of a Maybach S-class, a little bigger than a Flying Spur or Ghost, smaller than a Phantom. But any of those cars are more in the chauffeur driven class, no one else is making anything like that ICE or EV really.

Thanks, I googled it and nothing. But a Lucid is like 196, so not even close. The Lucid is like an AMG E63, M5, RS6 competitor, mid-size sports sedan.

Yeah, good move on VW to go to regular buttons. And the Mercedes at the end of the COMMAND era or Gen1 MBUX with the clicky-wheel (or track pad but clicky wheel I think is better) and the touch screen but still having regular buttons is better. The capacity touch and haptic feedback seems bad, and that was always a hallmark of Mercedes is how a switch clicked or felt when you pushed it. I think you need to touch things to feel quality, whether it is a button in a car, furniture, fabric, whatever. If everything is a screen, then there is no difference between a Rolls Royce and a Honda Civic as far as touching the controls.

The Lucid Air is also sized like an EQE or Taycan. The Celestiq is like 18 feet long, way bigger than a Lucid. I couldn't find the actual length, but I imagine it is longer than an Escalade. The Lucid might become like the next Fisher Karma, a lot of flash and hype, then they don't sell any and the company is gone.

I have only sat in an EQS, but I think the S-class is nicer and roomier on the inside. The EQE is as big as an E-class, I think 1-2 inches longer actually, being electric they should be able to make it roomier. But from what I have seen or read it isn't like the Taycan or Audi e-tron GT are big cars inside either. But looking at an EQE or an E-class, I'd pick the E-class and I'd prefer an EV if I were buying a car today. I think what a lot of these car companies will find is people don't want mega screens, they will want buttons, volume knobs and conventional stuff. I heard the hyper screen equipped cars have like a 1 year back log, so there are some techies out there that want that, but I suspect the bulk of the market is not that, and I suspect Mercedes will get customer feedback wanting "traditional" Mercedes that are EV.

I'd rather have $50-75 billion than $28-29 billion. And I get what GM is saying, I think their strategy is spot on, take existing models and make them EV, make them look conventional, and at a price that makes sense. But the Silverado, Sierra, Equinox, Blazer are all almost a year away from production still, and won't really see full production until 2024. They could easily pull a bait and switch like the F150 Lightning that "starts under $40,000" but they only made top trims in 2022, then the 2023 base price is $51,974. Just like the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 that never happened. I agree with the strategy, I am waiting to see if they can deliver on the prices they are promising and the scale they say. Like will they have a dozen Equinox EV's on dealer lots in the end of 2023 so you can go in and buy one, or will it be the place an order and get it in 5 months BS.

Ford is worth $53 billion, GM is worth $54 billion, Toyota is worth $225 billion, Tesla is worth $716 billion. I'd say Elon is the best CEO if the CEO's job is to build shareholder value. Toyota historically has kept about $50-60 billion in cash, google says it is over $70 billion this year. But my point is Toyota has plenty of cash and manufacturing know how that they can scale up an operation. I wouldn't count them out because they are still in a position of strength, still the largest car company in the world, they operate in every market. I think the bz4x is a flop, but eventually they'll do electric Tundra, Tacoma, Hilux, Rav4, Prius EV, etc, and they'll be fine. Unless they don't do any of that, but they aren't that stupid.

Toyota has more cash on hand than the value of GM as a company, they have the money to get supply chains, battery production, factory upgrades, etc all in place and launch a massive EV production within 5 years. It might take Ford and GM 5 more years to get to that volume anyway. We are still almost 1 year away from Blaze and Equinox EV going on sale, 9 months or so for Silverado EV and all those GM might only build 5-10,000 each next year. So not until 2024 will they really be up and running and who knows what that pace is. If GM or Ford sell over a million EV's in the calendar year 2024 in the USA I'd be surprised. There is still a price problem when the typical small crossover starts at $27k and $33k is the average sale price for that segment. But a Mach-E, Ariya, id4, bz4x, etc are low $40s starting and like $50k average. Tax credit (if you qualify) fuel and maintenance savings, yes I get all that. But the majority of the car buying market can't afford an EV, or if you can, you are comparing a Genesis GV70 or maybe even a GV80 to a Hyundai Ioniq 5 for similar money. You can buy a Lexus RX for the same price as a smaller, bz4x. A Kia EV6 awd starts at $51,400, a Cadillac XT5 with awd is larger and about $5k cheaper, and it's a Cadillac not a Kia. Prices have to get in line for the consumer demand to be there. Tesla has the best CEO in the auto industry. Most legacy OEM's are flat in revenue over the past 10 years, GM actually had less revenue in 2021 than they did 10 years ago. If you factor in inflation a lot of these companies aren't growing, Tesla is growing every year.

I think it depends on what Toyota’s production capacity is in 5 years. I think we need another upgrade in battery life and cost for EV to really take over. It might not be until 2030 that EV market share hits 50%. So Toyota has time if they scale huge and have everything in place then. We can say GM has products coming but it’s all low volume. 5,000 Sierra electric trucks at $105,000 isn’t a business model for them. GM needs to be making 500,000 electric pick ups, 500,000 electric Equinox globally, maybe more. Only Tesla has the scale in place, they will sell over a million Model Y next year, Ford will be lucky to hit 50,000 Mach-E’s. If Toyota shows up in 3-5 years with 3-5 million EV per year capacity they could stop Ford and GM just as they have the past 30 years.

The Toyota Corolla is the #1 selling vehicle in the world and the Toyota RAV4 is #2. Each do over 1 million sales per year. All Toyota has to do is build cars that look the same with the same interior as the Corolla and RAV4 on an EV platform. That shouldn’t be too hard, they already know what buyers want. You don’t need to experiment with funky designs and gloss black body cladding. And Toyota knows manufacturing probably better than anyone, they can figure out EVs and ICE running on the same line, others do it.

I work as an estimator for a car insurance company and I think for sure any of these mega cast cars will be totaled if wrecked and the cast is damaged. Although that isn’t too different from if frame rails, subframe or inner quarter panels are damaged now most of the time the car is totaled because any of those jobs gets into 50+ hour repairs plus the cost of the parts and materials and headlights are really expensive now. On the salvage side, Mercedes get the best salvage return, the newer stuff easily over 50% their value and even at 10+ years old over 40%. Toyotas usually get over 40% unless they are old and EV’s are usually in the 40% range while an average car is like 20%.

I like this look better than the Flying Buttress Silverado EV. Looks more futuristic than the Lightning with a better interior too. Question is how long before they scale it up and have the $50k version because we have another $100,000+ EV that few will be able to afford.

As far as Celestiq goes, a lot of the tech and features in it should be in other Cadillacs next year. Most of that stuff is in the luxury market already. Question is what does Celestiq do for the rest of the lineup? I don’t think people will see Celestiq and think that’s cool but can’t afford it and then buy a CT5. The Lyriq actually matters the most to get right.

I didn’t realize the AMG EQS was at dealers already but I think the regular and AMG trims of the EQE sedan and suv are all supposed to be out at about the same time. They might be able to differentiate the battery, I read the EQG will have an optional lithium silicone anode battery that is 20-40% more power dense.

My car does not have heated and cooled rear seats only front, and no neck scarf.

EQB is on dealer lots already, the other 2 aren't yet, so maybe pre-production or just early production. EQE 500 I find interesting, because the EQS is a big blob, the EQE being smaller should be a lot better drive and it has the same interior basically for less money. I do wonder not just for AMG but all car companies, how you start to differentiate from the base car, because it isn't like you are replacing a 4 cylinder with a V8 anymore, a lot of the performance EV's are the same car with different software. Unless we get to a point where an AMG, M, Shelby, SRT or whatever is like a $10,000 add on and not a $30,000 add on like in the ICE days. I am not sold on Sony, Apple, Google or any other tech or electronics company building cars. Just because the car is an EV, doesn't mean you make the same way as an iPhone or a TV. You still need the manufacturing, metal stamping, paint booth, crash testing and all the stuff ICE cars have now, and Sony and Apple don't know the first thing about building a car.

Right, and my car is 15 years old and has 4 zone climate control. The Celestiq offers what is par for the course among the A8/S-class/7-series crowd, sort of par for the course on EV power and range. So if you like what the big car segment has to offer but are a Cadillac fan, here's your car. I don't think they are contesting Bentley and Rolls owners with this thing though.