smk4565

They could do rwd base at $50k, awd at $60k is what I am thinking. Tesla has a more efficient manufacturing process with newer plants than the legacy OEM’s. That is where Tesla is winning. They also vertically integrate, rather than buying everything from suppliers who have a mark up, then sell to a dealer that has a mark up.

It has to be around $50k to start to get the 200,000 volume I think. That’s the magic number because we see how GM, Ford and Ram pushed truck prices to 60, 70, 80 thousand and now these trucks are stuck on dealer lots. A $60k loan at 6.5% is about $1100 a month for 6 years. Then add gas, maintenance, insurance, it is like $1500 a month to drive a new pick up. Not going to be a huge buyer pool if they keep pushing prices and interest rates stay high. If Tesla is priced like an ICE truck with $7500 tax credit, no gas, limited maintenance, better resale value then there is a big cost savings for the Tesla.

They can sell Pentastar V6, Charger, Challenger, 300 for a couple more years easily. Well they can easily keep them around, might take cash back deals to actually sell them, If they plan to keep the LH cars around a while they could put the inline 6 in, I assume that will take some engineering dollars that they may not want to spend. But if they want to, they could sell a 500 hp inline 6 SRT Charger and slap some hurricane stickers on it and they could be selling SRT “last call” Challengers in 2027.

So Cybertruck could take 10-15% of that market, I think that is pretty reasonable. That still puts the F150 to about 600k units a year, the Model Y could pass that. Mercedes EV sales aren't poor, the EQS is the only one that was on sale all last year, it is the #2 selling vehicle over $100,000 ICE or EV and it is only #2 because Mercedes makes the #1 seller. The EQS outsold the Taycan, the 911, even outsold the Cadillac CT4 that is 1/3rd the price. Mercedes too though needs to ramp up more production and they need the smaller size EVs because the volume lives there, not with a $125,000 sedan. And my point is not about low EV sales, it is more about profitability of EV sales, which these low volume producers don't make any money. And my other point is Tesla hasn't hit the mainstream price yet, once you can get a Tesla for the same price as an ICE Chevy/Ford/Toyota/Hyundai/etc and then get a tax credit, no gas, limited maintenance, less depreciation, a Tesla becomes cheaper than owning a Corolla. That is game over for the legacy OEM's.

iD4 sales suck too. The Taycan and EQS sell quite well for $100,000+ cars. What Audi, BMW, Mercedes have to do is get their volume level EV's cranking, and essentially covert the 2 million per year ICE sales they had in 2020 to 2 million EV sales in 2030. But they already took the hit from Tesla, Tesla isn't making more cars aimed at them, they are making cars aimed at the mainstream car brands. So the German luxury brands will probably be okay there. I agree it is about scaling up, and Tesla is the only one running at real scale right now. I see the challenge of the next 10 years not in who builds the best car, it is in who can scale up and produce EV's at a price masses can afford. Look at an EV6 or Ionic 5, basically $50,000 cars when Kia/Hyundai customers are used to paying $30,000 for a small crossover. The Ioniq 5 should be $30,000, not $50,000, otherwise it is a low volume car, not a volume seller. If GM can run 300,000 Equinox EV at $30,000 price point, well done to them, that is the sort of thing it will take to survive.

I think the Cybertruck will be more than competitive with the F150 Lightning that is supply constrained and over priced. By next-gen car, I mean the $25,000 Tesla coming from the Mexico plant, and later other plants. That is game over for Corolla, Civic, HR-V, Kicks, Trailblazer, Trax, etc. Elon's goal is 20 million units per year, the world car market is roughly 80 million units per year and not expected to grow, so legacy OEM is going to lose a lot of market share in the next 10 years. Ford loses $9,000 per EV sold, Tesla makes $9,500 per car. Ford has an $18,500 cost issue to overcome, that is a big ask.

1.5 million reservations for Cybertruck, but lets say in reality they sell 200-250,000 per year, that still steals maybe 50k each from Ford, GM and Ram, maybe a few from Toyota and a few new truck buyers. It still disrupts. The next-gen Tesla that is half the cost to build as a current Model 3/Y will outsell the F150. If the Cybertruck over performs or Tesla cuts price of Model Y again, Model Y might surpass the F150. I think the Charger EV will be low volume, just like the Airflow will be low volume, the Hornet and all Alfa Romeos are low volume, Pacifica and Durango are sinking volume. Not sure how any of those brands survives without volume because without big economies of scale, EV's are money losers.

Time for this car to go, sales declining and coupes aren't popular. They hint that the Camaro story isn't over, so I suspect it returns as an electric SUV. But why do we need Equinox EV, Blazer EV, Camaro SUV EV, Traverse EV, Trax/Trailblazer/Bolt maybe get merged to 1 EV, etc. All these variants but if they aren't all good what is the point. I think they don't want to kill name plates so they keep making variants.

I know they have the Hornet, Alfa Romeos are pretty sales proof, I doubt the Hornet will be any big seller, but at least it is a product in a big segment. I get that they have the Daytona/Banshee EV Charger and Airflow in the works, but if the Charger Daytona is 2-door only, that limits sales right off the bat. And do they actually have the battery capacity to crank these out? Cadillac sold like 900 Lyrics last year, Hyundai and Kia only managed about 20k Ioniq 5 and EV6 a piece last year, Mach E was about 39k, and all 3 of those about doubled their 2021 numbers as they ramped production. Dodge and Chrysler might sell 20k EV's combined next year, along with the Durango that already has $5000 cash back offers since it is old as dirt, the Pacifica is slumping and we'll see with the Hornet. I don't see a lot of sales volume out of Stellantis, who also is killing the Cherokee. Not to mention Stellantis dealers seem to be stocking all the high end trims, and carrying Wranglers and Grand Cherokees with $60k price tags at a time with high interest rates (Fed raised them again today) and what most people think is a slowing economy with inflation hitting everything else. The buyer pool for $60-100k vehicles is only so big, and the luxury brands are already there, any legacy OEM that abandons the under $45k price tier is basically handing it over to Tesla when the next-gen car arrives. Tesla Model Y was the #3 selling vehicle in the USA last month, the next gen car will sell better, take the sales crown from the F150, especially after the Cybertruck wrecks the sales of full size trucks.

What are they going to sell in 2024? The Banshee is in concept form, although close to production ready, so maybe they they can get it production ready by January. But do they have the supply chain worked out to actually build at scale? And Chrysler will be down to just a minivan since they have nothing in the pipeline except the Airflow which is pretty much vaporware at this point.

Somehow I feel like there will be 2024 Charger and Challenger models. And 2025 even if they are just 6 cylinder.

Right, 791 hp and 1,055 lb-ft, I looked up the actual number. That is supposed to end up in the SL and AMG GT also. The Turbo 4 e-performance is 671 hp. There is supposed to be a turbo six e-performance to split the gap for E-class and wherever else they want to deploy it. The V8’s days are numbered I can tell.

The point was made by David that the base powertrain in the GLC is underwhelming but it is on par with BMW, matches the RDX A-spec, beats even the XT5 V6, probably is quicker than a base or Hybrid Lexus. Yes the GLC300 will be 85% of sales, maybe 90% but the base powertrain is plenty adequate for the segment. And unlike Acura, Lexus or Cadillac, Mercedes will sell a performance version.

The Malibu sucks for sure, but I don't know if it is a good strategy for GM and Ford to totally give up on cars, because once competition hits their SUVs, they'll cancel some of them, like Ecosport is dead, Edge is supposedly dying. Explorer sales are half now what they were 20 years ago. And Tesla hasn't even hit the mass market brands hard yet which is about to happen, by 2030 Tesla will be outselling Ford and GM. Which is why GM, Ford, Cadillac especially need killer product. Cadillac could do a Lyric V-series right now, what are they waiting for? Other than they have no production scale, but assuming the factory was actually making them, they should have V-series of that.

Obviously they are going to do AMG versions since they do AMG everything, and obviously it will be the same as the C-class since they are mechanical twins and last generation had identical power. Just like the E-class and GLE have identical powertrains. So clearly the GLC AMG's will copy this.

Because they already announced the C43 and C63 power numbers and the GLC is a mechanical twin. C43 is already at dealers. The rumor mill is the E63 will go to a 700 hp inline six with over 800 lb-ft, which makes sense if a C63 is 671 hp, and the S63 is V8 with 800 hp, 1000+ lb-ft or whatever the number is. And I imagine that the swan song for AMG gasoline powered cars and none of this stuff will be around in 2030.

The GLC300 is 0-60 in 6.2 seconds per Mercedes estimate, which is usually a bit conservative. That's fine for this segment, the Acura RDX A-spec is 6.2 seconds 0-60, the XT5 is 8.0 seconds, the BMW X3 is 6.0. And the mild hybrid will help with start stop refinement and probably they pick up 1-2 mpg vs the old car. GLC43 is going to be 402 hp turbo 4 GLC63 is going to be 671 hp turbo 4 plug in hybrid Same as the C-class.

I think the coupe looks better than the regular version, but at the same time I think the crossover coupe idea is kind of dumb and overdone at this point. Good vehicle, nothing surprising since the C-class is basically identical inside and in powertrain and chassis. This with 670 hp will be pretty nuts against a field of dopey front drive crossovers.

CT5 and CT4 might be the last Cadillac cars. Buick has no cars, Chevy is down to Malibu, Camaro and Corvette and rumor is Malibu and Camaro could both die off, but I rear Malibu might get another generation too. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Corvette is the only GM car come 2030, so they better build V-series SUV's. I forgot Celestiq, that will probably still be around in 2030, but they need a V-series of that.

1. Cadillac needs more V-series crossovers, something like 70% of the market is truck/crossover, so have to do V-series SUVs because sedans and coupes are dying. I still like cars, but that isn't where the market is. EV switch may make that easier since they won't be saddled with GM corporate FWD platforms that can't handle power. 2. Got to get the Formula 1 deal done with Andretti. Come 2026, Porsche and Audi will be in F1 (which is gaining in popularity) and Mercedes, Aston Martin, Ferrari, McLaren and Alpine/Renault are already there. So if Cadillac wants to be prime time, have to go race those guys. BMW should come back to F1 too.

Looks good, kind of Escalade like with the vertical lights front and rear. Almost makes the Telluride look a bit dated, so that might cool Telluride demand a bit. I bet they want like $75,000 for these. Cool vehicle, probably is roomy with the long wheelbase, the swivel 180 degree seats are pointless since there isn't enough floor space for 4 people to have legs and feet when facing each other, a 90 degree swivel would aid entry/exit especially for handicapped people.

Mercedes is at Level 3 now, and apparently the 40 mph limit on Drive Pilot is a regulatory limit, the system actually works to 70 mph, but much like laser headlights, they don't have regulatory approval to use it. Tesla claims to be "full self drive" but it is Level 2 and is is over $10,000, the Mercedes Level 3 system is like $7,000 and the Level 2 is like $2,000. But they say they can build the Mexico factory in less than a year, be operational late 2024. 5 years ago Tesla was selling ike 100,000 cars a year, this year they will be over 2 million. They are growing like gangbusters in a shrinking overall market. So if they do deliver on the low priced car, they will just keep growing while companies like Honda, Nissan, Stellantis take 20-30% annual drops. Only takes a few years of that before the legacy OEMS have way too much overhead and capacity and start bleeding money. I think the EV9 looks cool, I appreciate they put some real buttons in it and not just all screens. Probably will cost a ton for a Kia though.

It is possible though with the new factory in Mexico, lower labor rate and new way of assembling the car. Even if they don’t deliver on 50% cost reduction, and it is 33% reduction, a Model 3 is about $32k to build so the next Gen car would still be about $22k to build. They could still sell under $30k before tax credits.

Correct that ICE cars are far more likely to catch fire than a battery car. It is like 100 or 1000 times more likely, I forget which, but it isn't even close. And it is people with political agendas, or oil companies trying to hold on to their business. Wyoming can ban EV's in 2035 if they want, but then there will be no new car sales in Wyoming. China is the largest car market, 22% of their sales were EV last year, by 2035 that might be 100%. California alone is a top 10 car market in the world and they were at 19% EV last year. The big markets are moving EV, that is what manufacturers will make. I am not a Tesla fan boy, I don't want to buy one, but if they really do deliver on the $25,000 car, or even $30k with some options (and they say it will have "full self drive") put on the tax credit and is a $22,500 car with options. All the ICE small cars and crossovers are dead at that point. And the German luxury brands and Cadillac won't even have an ICE car in 10 years to sell. So what is left for ICE?

In 2022, Tesla sales were up 44%, Mercedes up 6%, GM up 3%. All other car companies were negative, some like Nissan and Honda down over 30%. Tesla since lowered prices and got a $7500 tax credit on their volume sellers. So we know they are going up again, and have Cybertruck at the end of the year to carry them in 2024. Most of these other companies are clueless and way behind on the EV front when it comes to manufacturing at scale and cost. I think the EV switch comes like a tidal wave in the next few years and the ones that don't have both good product and ability to produce at scale are going to be screwed. Hyundai/Kia can't ramp up scale fast enough and they don't have the tax credit since they aren't built in the US, at least not yet. But by the time they get a US plant going, Tesla will have the next-gen car at $25,000 or whatever it costs and it is game over for them.