smk4565

Model Y is on pace to sell over 1 million units this year and surpass the Corolla as #1 selling vehicle in the world. GM sold 5.9 million units in 2022, GM is down in China 25% this year, but up in the USA, maybe they hit 6 million and Tesla will be about 2 million. So GM sells 3 times as many, but Tesla is closing fast, and the next Gen Tesla will sell 4 million units just form 1 model, so with that and Cybertruck Tesla passes GM, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Stellantis in volume by about 2027-28, and maybe they have got VW and Toyota by then, but I would estimate 2030. Tesla had revenue of 1.87 billion from selling carbon credits in 2022, that is basically pure profit, the company made $12.6 billion in total profit (GM made $9.9 billion). So about $10.8 Billion is not from carbon credits. Tesla's operating margin on auto last year was about 17%, highest there is in the auto industry, Mercedes is at 13%, GM's was 6.3%.

Lot of low volume trucks. 2 Hummer's sold in Q1. Also the Tesla Model Y has a better profit margin than a gas Escalade. How long before the Chevy Blazer EV has a better margin than the Escalade and sells over 1 million units a year? My guess is never. And that is what GM, Ford, Toyota, etc are up against. Making 20% margin on $50,000 electric cars when GM can't even make that on ICE SUVs that are $75-100,000. And no one can, Tesla beats Mercedes-Benz's operating margin, and Tesla hasn't even fully realized the profits from solar power, mega packs and charging non-Tesla owners to charge at Tesla stations.

The Cybertuck has a bigger bed, much higher payload and 40% higher tow rating than the Silverado EV or F150 Lightning. Cybertruck also has a smaller turning circle, better off road ability, (looks like better range and acceleration too) Full Self Driving (to whatever level Tesla is at come fall). Also the Tesla charge network. If Tesla beats the competition on price too, that is a big hit to the legacy OEM trucks. Elon estimated 250-500k units a year, I think that is very doable, and if they do 500k, that is probably Ram, Ford and GM taking a 100-150,000 unit loss each, which will definitely hurt the profits at those companies since that is where all the money comes from. I think GM will be okay, Nissan/Renault/Mitsubishi, Honda, Mazda, Subaru are the most in danger, Toyota could be in danger, but they do have a mega cash reserve. But China is basically done with ICE cars and you can get $12,000 EV's there, and Tesla has the #1 selling vehicle in China, so that battle is basically over. Tesla has the #1 selling vehicle in Europe and the Chinese are going to Europe, VW has enough market there, Stellantis is probably in trouble, Ferrari is worth more than all of Stellantis now, and probably because Ferrari will be here in 20 years and Stellantis won't be. Tesla could be 25-30% of global sales volume in 2035 with BYD and the other Chinese makers making up 25-30%. So that leaves legacy auto fighting for about half the current market they have, none of those companies can survive on 50% of their current volume because they have too much overhead, so about half will probably go bankrupt.

$79,800 is for the 450 mile WT and $74,800 for the 350 mile WT and those are fleet only pricing, not for retail. Retail customers only get the $100k RST this year. I don't think we will ever see a sub $45k Silverado EV. I don't see how they get a $74,000 retail truck down to $40k, even if you cut the battery down to 250 mile range, that is what, $10,000 worth? So the question is where will the Cybertruck price out? If Tesla beats Ford and GM on price, it is kind of game over for Ford and GM.

$80,000 is a lot for a work truck, but they may already have commercial fleet buyers lined up. Question is still how fast GM can scale these EV's up, analysts are predicting 76,000 this year which are mostly Bolts and about 328,000 next year. Although that probably puts them ahead of any of the Asian brands.

Maybe they can just dump the IQ in about 5 years when there is no gas Escalade. Should just call it Escalade and put an EV badge on the back instead of one of those dumb 600 badges they put on them now. Still not as bad as EV9 or iD9 or the likely Toyota bz8X which sounds way less cool than Land Cruiser.

Tires make all the difference.

It mostly isn't needed, if you live in the mountains of Vermont or Colorado, sure. But for probably 75% of the USA or more, you don't need AWD. And as we go to EV, it makes more sense for RWD than FWD because the engine isn't over the front axel so FWD becomes pointless and RWD works just fine. Which I am all about that, I drive a RWD car.

According to Caredge, Buick and Lincoln cost more to maintain. And the gold standard for long term maintenance cost is of course Tesla. Which is just one more reason the mass market brands are screwed, they can't beat Tesla in anything, when Tesla is fully scaled and priced against them, it is game over.

Yet Toyota wins in 6-10 year maintenance costs and if you factor in resale value, you will take an absolute bath buying a Lincoln or Buick vs a Toyota.

Probably will cost most than an A6 or E-class. And I feel like the people that can afford a $60,000 sedan are going to buy an Audi or Mercedes, not a VW. And the people that are EV or nothing will buy a Tesla.

Switching to ICE shouldn't be hurting their sales, they still make the Golf, Jetta, Tiguan, Atlas and they introduced the Taos. Killed the Passat but that was a sales dud anyway. Their sales dropped because their ICE cars aren't selling and their supply chain is no doubt jacked up because they rely on Eastern Europe and Ukraine for a lot of parts. But Tesla increased sales in the same time frame, they solved supply chain. Here are 2019 US sales on the left and 2022 sales on the right. Most of these brands are done, some like Honda and Ford have lost 500,000 units, Nissan has lost about half its volume, Buick and Dodge lost half their volume, VW is down about 1/3. BMW, Hyundai and Kia are up slightly, Tesla more than doubled. Mercedes down 10,000 units, but they are up in 2023, they should pass 2019 levels this year, which is pretty good considering Tesla hit the luxury market first and they survived. Once Tesla rolls out the lower priced cars and hits the mainstream these brands that are struggling now are going to be headed for bankruptcy. And VW is getting outsold by BMW, Mercedes and Lexus right now and that is with VW's cheap cars. The id4 is priced and sized like a GLB or Lexus NX, the iD7 will be priced higher than a Lexus ES. Who is going to buy these VW's with Lexus-level pricing when people aren't buying VW's at Toyota level pricing? JLR, Nissan, Mitsubishi (and Renault) are done, (Subaru and Mazda will be bought by Toyota). Honda, Stellantis and VW in 10 years will be half what they are now. None of them stand a chance against Tesla. Toyota has so much size and cash, I think they will put up a fight, and GM and Ford will put up a good fight in the USA, but won't have the global scale Tesla will have. Hyundai/Kia are a strong contender, although they don't make much profit per car, so if ICE sales drop and they aren't making profit on EV's they have no margin for error.

VW is on steady decline, I can easily see them at 6 million units per year in 2030. And Tesla will be around 8-10 million, BYD could get to 6.5 million and pass VW. Now if BYD can’t expand much out of Asia then VW could stay ahead of them, but I can still see Tesla, Hyundai and Toyota all in front of VW come 2030. Stallantis will probably drop from their current number so I think VW could still edge them out.

VW will never pass Tesla in EV sales and VW will not be the #2 car maker by volume in 2030, I suspect Tesla and BYD will have passed them by then and VW will be in a battle with Toyota and Hyundai group for the 3rd-5th spots. And VW couldn’t sell Passats at $30k or Arteons at $40k. But here they come with a rumored $50k+ sedan. You will be able to buy a Cadillac CT5 or Lexus ES for less money than this VW. Unless VW pulls a shocker and charges $39,990 for this thing.

Still a pretty slow ramp up. Maybe the plan is to introduce iD7 in 2024 and by 2026 be up to 20,000 units per year.

We know they will over price it, and we know it won't sell. We already saw that story play out with the iD4 and the aforementioned Arteon. VW came out with a lower priced iD4 since launch and has the tax credit this year and did get a sales bump, but they sold 9700 in Q1 in the US vs like 100,000 Tesla Model Y. And the Model Y cut prices twice this month, so now you can get them for iD4 money, and the Model Y is faster with more range and the Model Y is bigger and roomier. When Tesla hits the 20 million units a year level, VW is going to be one of the losers, although not in the big loser list like Honda, Nissan/Renault/Mitsubishi, Mazda and Subaru. VW probably drops to like 6 million units a year in 2035, those other ones might not even be here.

It has pretty good power and performance for the price point, but it is a C-class or 3-series size car which can whip this in performance, granted they cost more. The C63 has over twice the horsepower. If Acura really wanted "incredible performance" they should have put over 600 hp in this car, not 320. Probably this will be high $40s, a CLA35 is a good comparable for it price and performance wise. CT4-V is pretty close also. Sporty cars, but not the top tier performance.

I'd take a Tesla over this thing. The VW Arteon looked better than this car and was allergic to sales at $40,000. This will be a sales bust in the USA, might do okay in Europe and China, but China also has EV price wars galore going on. If they did a Golf or Jetta EV (that isn't a 100 mile range compliance car) that might do well in the US since those 2 cars have had some success here. Passat, Phaeton, CC, Arteon were all sales duds back when sedans sold, and now the masses don't want sedans. The Mercedes hyper screen is ridiculous but at least it isn't tacked on top of the dash, they build it in. But I would prefer the non hyper screen cars to get wood trim or actual materials in the car, not just screens everywhere.

$66,000 for a TLX? Um, no.

Not a fan of the super short trunk lid and I wish every car wasn’t just big screens inside but that is the trend. It is kind of boring looking but most VW’s are. Hard to have an opinion until we know what the price is.

Tesla Model Y Long Range is now cheaper than a Nautilus even before the tax credit and gas savings.

The Buick Envista base price is actually less than the 2024 Trax and Trailblazer. Buick isn’t mid-Lux anymore, they are basically a dumping ground for GM global products how Saturn used to be. They could make Denali a Chevy trim and not need GMC. I think GMC is mainly around because of the dealer agreements, and it isn’t worth paying off all those dealers off. If GM was starting from scratch today it would probably be Chevy-Cadillac, but they are 100 years into this model and aren’t going to change it now.

I meant black plastic body cladding.

Because... money.

Body cladding = SUV. This standard was set by the 90s Pontiac Montana.