Toyota surpassed GM in sales, but what if?
Edward Lapham | Automotive News / May 1, 2007 - 11:51 am /
It's been a week since we learned that Toyota nudged past General Motors to become the world's No. 1 automaker in the first quarter.
Since then, not much has changed. The sun still rises in the east and sets in the west. I know, I've checked.
In autodom, factories are still building cars and trucks, and dealers are still selling them, although not as many as they might like. I know, I've checked.
The price of gasoline has continued to climb and is now more than $3 a gallon in most U.S. markets. I know, I've paid it.
There has been the predictable patter in print, on the Web and in other electronic media.
From Toyota, the new No.1: Aw, shucks, we feel blessed to be so successful in the world's greatest industry, which has so many strong, wonderful competitors.
From GM, the former No. 1: Hey, it's OK because now we're going to concentrate on profitability and increasing shareholder value.
From commentators galore: We saw this coming; it was inevitable; GM is doomed.
What if?
But the most intriguing thought came from one of my colleagues who claims Toyota wouldn't have grabbed the global sales crown if GM hadn't killed Oldsmobile.
His rationale is that even in the yuckiest years, Olds dealers sold enough cars and trucks that, if thrown on top of the sales heap, would have been sufficient for GM to keep the title.
It's a seductive thought. After all, Toyota only nosed out GM by some 90,000 units, 2.35 million to 2.26 million.
Admittedly, the math is a stretch.
In 2000 -- the year GM announced it would whack Oldsmobile -- dealers sold 289,172 Olds cars and trucks. One quarter of that is 72, 293, still not enough to carry the day.
A year earlier, dealers sold 352,197 Oldsmobiles. One-fourth of that is 88,049, which would make the global sales battle a tossup.
Of course, you need to discount that raw total to account for former Olds customers -- especially employee buyers -- who switched to other GM brands. Then you need to add back the number of Olds buyers who switched to Toyota, Lexus or Scion.
(This is getting to be a complicated what-if story problem, isn't it?)
Another number
Let me throw in one more number: The $2 billion that GM is said to have paid dealers and lawyers to make the Oldsmobile franchise go away. If that $2 billion had been used for something else -- like, say, product development -- might it have meant incrementally more sales in North America or elsewhere?
Honestly? Probably not, because GM still has too many brands to feed.
I know, I've checked.