VenSeattle

Weren't there several people on C&G stating GM's "cut-backs" to fleet were just smoke and mirrors? GM's fleet sales are down, GM's transaction prices are increasing along with resale, import fleet sales are increasing. How is this just smoke & mirrors by GM? Oh yeah... it's still business as usual in Detroit, and nothing has changed down at the tubes.

That's interesting because Allstate already tracks my mileage for a discount. Yes, I have to report it manually. Maybe on my next Buick I'll check GMAC insurance out. However, Allstate has never treated me with anything but respect with my homes and cars. It'll be a hard sale to make me switch.

At Witz’ End: Can Detroit Survive? We ask the experts – and get some hope. by Gary Witzenburg (2007-07-23) Link to Original Article @ thecarconnection.com A lot of hands have been rightly wrung and ink well consumed lately over "Detroit's" prospects for survival. Given all U.S. companies' huge cost disadvantage vs. competitors based anywhere else, can our final three besieged U.S. automakers overcome that plus their union, an indifferent and often hostile federal government, our import-loving media and an apparent majority of Americans still refusing to believe they are worthy and competitive? We recently asked a trio of trained observers and got some enlightening answers. "We're in a very fragile time," says David E. Cole, chairman of the Ann Arbor-based Center for Automotive Research (CAR). "Without really big thinking in the labor negotiations, Ford is highly vulnerable and Chrysler is not survivable as a single-entity domestic company. Big thinking means things like trading healthcare debt for equity, which has been proposed and the union hates but might make tremendous sense. It's a new business model, it's happened at UPS and elsewhere, and we need a new business model between labor and management." Yes, but do UAW leaders understand that? Will they bend and concede enough to save their members' jobs? "Odds are 75 percent they'll do something big and smart," Cole responds, "25 percent they'll do something small and stupid. They've already said they want to maintain a pattern, but if this is just an another day at the bargaining table type of contract, it won't work. If they are wedded to incremental contracts, they could take Ford out, and if Ford goes out, the union will die. If there is any kind of a protracted strike, it will be killing itself." Washington's role Why is our government-unlike every other one in the world that is fortunate enough to have an auto industry-so indifferent to the strategic and economic importance of ours? "The federal government has been more bent on persecuting the industry than supporting it. I think there's the history that being big is somehow associated with being evil," Cole goes on. And most people don't realize its economic contribution is so high. The value to the U.S. economy of a car-company job is three to four times that of an average job, with an economic multiplier of 7.5. That means for every automaker job, 6.5 jobs elsewhere-at suppliers and in communities-are supported by that income. Assembly plant jobs have an economic multiplier well over 10. "One big problem," he continues, "is that our companies are totally responsible for legacy healthcare. There is no government sharing. Every one of the countries where their competitors are based has some type of national system that pools those costs across the entire economy. Our companies have to absorb that cost, so it's a very un-level playing field." How would he rate their prospects halfway through a pivotal year when foreign brands for the first time will very likely own more than half of the U.S. new-vehicle market? "GM is on the right course and has a very robust strategy," he asserts. "They're getting the right kind of leadership, common systems and the right things done organizationally. They've got the framework in place, but they have more to do. They can fine-tune different things. But I don't have reservations on the product side. The last two to three years, their products have all been strong. The turnaround at GM is Ford's and Chrysler's worst nightmare. "Ford needs a common system worldwide, so that product development and manufacturing-car, truck, Mazda, PAG-all operate on the same process. They tell me they're 2-1/2 years behind GM in getting things together. They also need to look aggressively for collaboration opportunities. I can't imagine why Ford is not in the middle of that dual-mode hybrid program, and it's open to them. Chrysler needs to find the right partners, where they can have global reach, access to technology and scale volumes on a global basis." A common approach Harbour Consulting president Ron Harbour, who visits 40-50 plants each year, concurs with Cole's assessment. "It's going to be really tough," he says. "GM is probably strongest of the three right now. They really get it and have made very significant improvement. As I travel globally, I see the same GM, the same measures, the same approach, the same everything. "Ford has to get some product to market in the next year or two that really differentiates it, or they'll burn through that money very quickly, and there won't be anything left. Chrysler will depend on who's running it. They have worked hard to catch up and have made more progress more rapidly in the last five years than anybody else, but they are still a step behind GM." Craig Cather, president and CEO of the respected forecasting and consulting firm CSM Worldwide, responds: "The Detroit Three have different challenges in front of them. Their problem in the United States is the fact that they have been around a long time and have built up cost structures over the years that are simply not sustainable. They all have very high legacy costs, and some are doing better at addressing that than others. "We are quite optimistic about General Motors. We look at GM and are encouraged by the developments we see, including strong product and a very determined and disciplined strategy going forward. Ford has a lot to do, but when you look at it as a global organization, their only real problem is America. They're doing quite well In Europe and Asia, and those successes can be replicated in America. They have changes to make structurally, they're still heavy on cost, and they need to work on their product pipeline, but we're encouraged to see a new energy level in that organization with its new leadership. Chrysler has specific challenges but will have more autonomy to do what they need to do to grow as a global OEM and not be constrained to the degree that they may have been under the Daimler umbrella." The bottom line OK, guys, give us your bottom line. "This whole legacy thing is a huge ball and chain around their ankles," Harbour says. "If I spend $1,800 on legacy costs, that's $1,800 I don't have to make a better car. The biggest dilemma the domestics have is creating, again, an image with the buying public that their products are equal to or better than the competition and worth the price on the window." "In other areas, such as quality and plant cost, they've closed much of the gap. They need to retrench and do fewer vehicles, but do them really well, because they have a limited amount of resources. Then they have to sweat out the things they can't control as much, like the legacy burden, government regulations and currency exchange rates." "I would say we're leaning toward a really tough Big Two," Cole predicts, "Toyota and GM, with three and four up for grabs. Toyota and GM have global economies of scale. Toyota has had it for some time, GM has acquired it, and the value of that is enormous." "These organizations have their backs against the wall," Cather sums up, "but we see a new urgency, and that urgency is ultimately going to make the Detroit industry stronger."

There are some members I would like to miss... but they won't go away.

The Saturn version will be built in the US.

Infiniti's line-up is well-rounded and stands up against the direct competition better than Acura. FWD/AWD sedans and two Crossovers don't make the most premium of line-ups... especially when the only true-luxury car you have is floundering. Also, Acura's target "luxury market" only spans from the $25k-$50k range (but be honest, who's paying full price for an RL?!? No one around here.) So, I'd say the weakest luxury brand out of the Japanese is Acura.

While working at EDS HQ in Plano, I had the luxury of seeing one regularly. Dick Brown (the CEO at the time) was chauffeured in one of these. Black on Black. Very attractive and had great presence. If you're running a formerly owned GM company and still have Family First benefits, what else are you going to ride in?

I'm listing them in my personal order of probability... give or take ten positions... lol. Import Brands (regardless of ownership) & Domestic Brands (regardless of ownership) Import Brands: 1 ) Isuzu - obvious 2 ) Mitsubishi - obvious 3 ) Volkswagen - mostly obvious 4 ) Maybach - rolling eyes at the obvious 5 ) Suzuki - low market penetration, poor retention of customers, and low satisfaction coupled with everyone wanting in on the compact/sub/micro-compact market. They’re getting squeezed out. 6 ) Jaguar/Land Rover - If they're sold, who can guess? 7 ) Audi - Have you checked their sales? if VW leaves, I can picture Audi planning a similar exit strategy. 8 ) Saab - GM is very stubborn. The brand doesn't even have a pulse at the moment, but GM will continue to pump cash into it Domestic Brands: 1 ) Chrysler/Dodge tie for first - Despite being sold and taken private, their operations are extremely unprofitable. If the turn-around fails, there will be no salvation for Chrysler and Dodge. Jeep would be sold to the highest bidder. 2 ) Pontiac - With no real international presence and waning market appeal locally, the last Pontiac-Attack may be of the heart. I feel it would be more sensible to invest in premium touring compact and mid-size vehicles and sell them under Buick in America and China instead of fighting budget constraints to keep them affordable under the US-only Pontiac. Let Chevrolet sell affordable versions globally to help control costs. Although, see Saab’s description about GM being stubborn. 3 ) Mercury - Once the crown jewels are sold, Ford may end up pursuing what several auto-analysts have suggested and follow a Toyota approach: two divisions... Mainstream & luxury - Ford & Lincoln. (Ford has a controlling stake in Mazda, but doesn't own it.) 4 ) Buick - Regardless of how I feel, there's no guarantee Buick will survive in America unless GM becomes serious about saving its founding brand. However, China keeps Buick on life support at the moment.

The Supers are said to be at the 2007 BCA National Meet here in Bellevue, WA next week... am I lucky or what!... I'm looking forward to seeing them in person. Thank our local member Centurion here at C&G for coordinating the National Meet this year. Our two local chapters are hosting the event.

I'm not shocked... Mitsubishi & Volkswagen are both at the top of my list of the soon-to-be-departed. Suzuki's sales increased last year, but I think their survival in the US market depends on what they bring out to replace the GM-DAT cars. Are there any Isuzu dealers left?

The Camry just remodeled in 2007. The Accord is about to be remodeled in 2008. The Altima just remodeled in 2007. No... the competition will not have moved on by CY2009. Those products will have aged some which will actually give the Aura a sporting chance. The new Aura will be on Epsilon II which is believed to support AWD... So, the Aura will still be ahead of the game in 2009 compared to the competition.

A base BMW 530i with no options is around $48k. The BMW 530xi is $50k. (the 530 is the engine equivalent of the base CTS 3.6l VVT.) I don't see a pricing problem at all when a loaded 530xi pushes $65k.

When will the NG LaCrosse spyshots start showing up??!?? Anyways... The Aura looks good!

Unfortunately, that just isn't true. Oldsmobile had been unprofitable for several years. Here's a link to GM's published official statement: Here's another link to an article full of information on Oldsmobile:

Where was the "Volkswagen Death Watch" for the past three years?

Body by Fisher

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When was the last time you saw $3500 dealer cash on a new Honda in its 2nd model year? How about the last time you saw a new Honda in its 2nd year pending a "big change" after being hailed as a success?

Hey! Of course a lot of us remember you! Great to hear from you and know you're OK! You're always welcome here.

You apparently get easily distracted during your rants. When I'm comfortable with my opinion on some of the above subjects that you've pointed out, I'll post them in the appropriate topics... that is IF they haven't already been clearly stated. My focus is on Chevrolet's European sales, so I won't comment on some of them here like you feel the need to do... in several other topics too... over and over again. Broken Record? Maybe. You're one of the few members here who rush to a positive GM posting to put a negative spin on them... and I read your posts... albeit fewer and fewer as the days continue with your near incessant doom and gloom for General Motors. --- As for the comment against "lackluster Daewoo-rebadged" Chevrolet line-up... Maybe you should refresh your memory of how long GMDAT has existed (5 years) and how many new/remodeled Chevrolet products being offered in Europe were never sold there (or in the US) as a Daewoo. You purposely ignore how much better the new products are over the Daewoos we saw here in the late 1990's... but that's expected from you.

Good News about GM = Parade Enzl = Rain This is good news for GM. GM has made significant accomplishments on two continents (Europe & Asia.) With a strong foundation of well built Chevrolet & Opel cars in Europe, it’s only a matter time before people begin to take notice of GM's premium brands. Cadillac is finally rolling out diesels, which the lack of them alone has been Cadillac's largest single drawback in the European market. It looks like GM's situation in Europe can only continue to improve.

Not everyone paying $38k want a sports sedan (compact, midsize, or whatever.) The article is actually objective unlike some reponses who fail to recognize there are preferences in this world that are different from their own. The Lucerne is a great place to "de-stress" after a busy day and is comfortable for 99% of every day driving and 100% on long trips. I'd prefer the V8 also, but the 3800 is reliable and better on gas than the Northstar.

...and regardless of generation, I have met several Toyota/Honda owners who have been just as disappointed. They are not perfect. Their products are good, but often fail to live up to the inflated expectations that the media pushes...

Ouch! Sorry to hear about this. Those x-rays are painful to look at. I broke my tibia in my left leg on a slide when I was a kid... twice across and down the middle... 1 bone = 6 pieces. Took two casts and a little over 3 months to heal... not fun stuff, so I feel for you. One of my clients informed me back on Friday that her nephew has been in the trauma center for a week+. He was diving and hit the side of the pool. He broke his neck but it didn't kill him. He took his first step post-surgeries on Friday. Miraculously, he's going to be okay.

There have been several articles stating Gen Y (and Gen X to some extent) do not have any brand loyalty in the auto market.