Maybe I am a soothsayer

[Camino LS6]

...as Longtooth suggested the other day.

Today I watched the entire Senate Banking commitee hearing as the Big3 testified.

As I posted yesterday, commitee member Senator Bennett proposed that the loan legislation be contingent upon GM absorbing Chrysler.

It was a long six hours.

[A Horse With No Name]

Still think GM/Chrysler is a bad idea...

I'll bet it was a long six hours. That you have that much time in the middle of the week says worlds about our economy.

Chris

[Camino LS6]

Still think GM/Chrysler is a bad idea...

I'll bet it was a long six hours. That you have that much time in the middle of the week says worlds about our economy.

Chris

Yes, yes it does.

This is normally my off-season, but at this point I'd say that I am essentially out of business.

I'll be looking for "New Horizons".

Anyway,

I will post more impressions of the hearings after I take a few advil and recover a bit.

It wasn't all bad.

[Camino LS6]

Impression #1

Senator Shelby remains a self-serving, lie-perpetuating, agenda-driven sack of hypocrisy.

...and the dirtbag left early (no loss).

[Camino LS6]

The balance of the commitee at least seemed to understand that action must be taken.

There was evidence that a far better understanding of both the business, and the implications that would come with failure.

The low spots came from the aforementioned low-life from South Carolina, and from another GOP senator addicted to bankruptcy as the only solution. But, even his opinion had softened ever so slightly by the end.

[Camino LS6]

The chairman (Senator Dodd) gets it, but his agenda of blaming the administration, the treasury, and the Fed, for any possible failure showed through his seeming resolve.

But not too badly.

And he does have a point.

[Camino LS6]

Wagoner did ok, but his extreme lack of skill in PR situations like this was clear. He missed too many opportunities to set the record straight.

Nardelli was frank and blunt, he easily had the toughest time of the three - essentially being told that Chrysler was finished and that he was either lying or a fool. But his frank answers may have saved him.

Mulally is quite skilled when it comes to this sort of thing, but he had the benefit of being in a position that allowed him great lattitude due to Ford's ability to go without loans at all if the climate stabilizes. If there was a flaw in his delivery, it would be a tiny hint of smug, self-assuredness.

Gettelfinger was brutalized by several senators, but held his own nicely with defenders on the commitee as well as Wagoner - who treated him with a degree of respect some senators couldn't muster.

The CEO of Johnson Controls lent lucidity to the realities that failure would cause, and was compelling in his testimony.

The president of the CT dealer's assoc. gave insight into local impact failure would cause for state and local governments as well as real people "in your district,senator". The man was the most emotional of the bunch.

The financial expert was logical and his opinions stark. He categorized the cost of collapse as "catastrophic". He did dispute the ultimate cost of the backing, stating that rather than the $34B number requested by the Big3, the ultimate cost would likely run closer to a total of $75- 125B. To be fair, he later explained that his numbers included the already appropriated $25B for green tech, the requested $34B, and money from T.A.R.P. for the finance arms of the companies from the already approved financial bailout of $700B.

A great deal of rationality was displayed by most of those involved, but not all.

I think I'll leave it there for now.

[longtooth]

...as Longtooth suggested the other day.

Today I watched the entire Senate Banking committee hearing as the Big3 testified.

As I posted yesterday, committee member Senator Bennett proposed that the loan legislation be contingent upon GM absorbing Chrysler.

It was a long six hours.

Right you were.

I'm there to verify your seeing abilities if needed.

Now I'm hearing more 'noise' as to the Chinese getting involved.

[Camino LS6]

Now I'm hearing more 'noise' as to the Chinese getting involved.

That's a whole new can of worms...

[longtooth]

That's a whole new can of worms...

And SAIC might want to go fishing.

I saw an unattributed article (which is from 11-18-08) in the form of an e-mail. Not an earth-shattering, late breaking story. I Googled the headline: Chinese Automakers May Buy GM and Chrysler.

Which has likely already been posted here.

Anyway here's the link.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/breaking-...m-and-chrysler/

I'm behind the curve right now.

And there's this, from The FactoryRat website. About/from Janesville, Wisconsin.

"...just talked with the union in janesville and he said the jobs bank is the least of there worries right now. They say GM will not be able to make payroll for the last week of dec..."

Link for that FactoryRat forum:

http://factoryrat.com/factoryrat/modules.p...opic&t=3854

[Camino LS6]

I have seen that China story before, I thought you had heard something new.

I put anything coming from TTAC "on ignore".

The other link is an interesting perspective to have...

[longtooth]

I have seen that China story before, I thought you had heard something new.

I put anything coming from TTAC "on ignore".

The other link is an interesting perspective to have...

That FactoryRat is comprised of the remnant members of the 'New Directions' movement within the UAW.

It reveals much about the membership. Some good & bad points. Things without a point occasionally.

I post there as 'SledgeHammer'...I'm not beholden to any single faction.

[balthazar]

I heard a chunk of the hearings via radio today. At the opening, I also thought Dodd, whom I usually don't care for his views, did have a decent & blanaced approach to the situation, and agree that Shelby has already made up his mind no matter what the situation, but then again; he was instrumental in securing $650 million in tax incentives for transplant automakers in AL (toyota, honda, hyundai & mercedes).

You know, I could not help wonder about the superficial 'flip side' : last time congress asked the CEOs how they got to DC... I'd sure like to see congress asked what cars they own before they vote.

I had the same impressions Camino did on the overviews of each person at the mike. One thing that did jump out at me most distressingly tho, was the repeated mention of 'marketshare' as a seeming determining factor to the decision. Financial success & the employment picture are a lot more important than marketshare percentages, which frankly I feel is borderline immaterial.

[Camino LS6]

I think the marketshare questions were a lead-up to Bennet's near-demand that GM take over Chrysler.

BTW: Bennet said he has an Explorer and an Olds 88 and Dodd said he has an Escape

[A Horse With No Name]

Why the hype about GM taking over Chrysler?

Chris

[Camino LS6]

Why the hype about GM taking over Chrysler?

Chris

The way Bennet sees it, Chrysler can't stand on its own and there isn't room for three domestics anymore. He tried to bully Wagoner and Nardelli into agreeing to the merger on the spot. Nardelli essentially did and Wagoner came close.

I'll keep what I think of the idea to myself for now, I'm still thinking about the implications and what it would really mean.

[A Horse With No Name]

What it would really mean can only be very, very bad, methinks.

Chris

[smk4565]

It looks like GM and Chrysler's situation didn't improve much today. I do think congress will do something before they go bust. I predict some sort of reorganization that is like Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but controlled by the government and not called bankruptcy.

[Camino LS6]

It looks like GM and Chrysler's situation didn't improve much today. I do think congress will do something before they go bust. I predict some sort of reorganization that is like Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but controlled by the government and not called bankruptcy.

Well, I think that it improved dramatically since two weeks ago actually.

As for your prediction, it isn't much of a stretch if you watched the proceedings today.

[smk4565]

I agree they did better today and had a plan at least, and asking for $34 billion is nothing compared to Citigroup's $300 billion. But the votes for a bailout probably aren't there, some sort of government bankruptcy plan is probably as good as it gets.

[Camino LS6]

I agree they did better today and had a plan at least, and asking for $34 billion is nothing compared to Citigroup's $300 billion. But the votes for a bailout probably aren't there, some sort of government bankruptcy plan is probably as good as it gets.

Nope.

Any "bankruptcy" plan is DOA.

You were closer before.

[Camino LS6]

What it would really mean can only be very, very bad, methinks.

Chris

Maybe.

The Senator was actually being quite logical in the way he presented it, showing the skill of an old politician. He would like nothing better than to kill Chrysler and leave GM the blame (saving $10B in costs per year, he asserts).

The irony of it all was that you could see both Nardelli's and Wagoner's eyes light up at the possibility.

Deer in the headlights?

Or CEOs in their natural habitat: a merger?

Like I said, I'm thinkng about it.

[thegriffon]

I gather Nardelli is Keen, but Wagoner and GM still need to be persuaded. It is unlikely to pass regulatory approval, less so under Obama than it was under Bush (and even they said not a chance). Any administration is only going to approve a sale of Chrysler to a company without a significant US market presence—Mitsubishi, Renault, PSA, a Chinese or Russian automaker, a supplier such as Magna, or another non-automotive company.

[Camino LS6]

I gather Nardelli is Keen, but Wagoner and GM still need to be persuaded. It is unlikely to pass regulatory approval, less so under Obama than it was under Bush (and even they said not a chance). Any administration is only going to approve a sale of Chrysler to a company without a significant US market presence—Mitsubishi, Renault, PSA, a Chinese or Russian automaker, a supplier such as Magna, or another non-automotive company.

I'm not so sure about that.

This battle will take place in Congress, and the merger could be a way to make both sides look good.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Yes, yes it does.

This is normally my off-season, but at this point I'd say that I am essentially out of business.

I'll be looking for "New Horizons".

Anyway,

I will post more impressions of the hearings after I take a few advil and recover a bit.

It wasn't all bad.

How about an automotive publication... One that tells the truth :AH-HA_wink:

I'll work for you, hell, I'll volunteer!

[A Horse With No Name]

a merger?

Like I said, I'm thinkng about it.

When you come up with more thoughts, I am all ears...or er..eyes, this is the internet after all.

Sixty-Six

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Mulally is quite skilled when it comes to this sort of thing, but he had the benefit of being in a position that allowed him great lattitude due to Ford's ability to go without loans at all if the climate stabilizes. If there was a flaw in his delivery, it would be a tiny hint of smug, self-assuredness.

I love Mulally... I think more of his type are SORELY needed in the automotive business.

These executives SHOULD'VE walked in there with a swagger IMO. Congress declared war last time by being too ignorant to see the severity of the situation at hand and piling on as much as they could.

IMO, the three auto execs should've walked in there with a 'finger on the button' mentality that would've given THEM the power in the situation. They don't need to be arrogant, but they need to present the case to congress in a way that states; "Look, either you jump down off your high horse and help us out, or we'll blow this house into a hundred pieces by selecting the nuclear option of bankruptcy."

They should've DEMANDED respect and if it takes FEAR to do that, then so be it....

(This is also why I'm not so sure I want to go into this industry... It's usually not good for me to mix passion and business)

[A Horse With No Name]

I also like Mulally...

Sixty-Six

[Camino LS6]

How about an automotive publication... One that tells the truth :AH-HA_wink:

I'll work for you, hell, I'll volunteer!

Thanks for the vote of confidence, but that would take start-up funds that I don't have to enter a dubious marketplace.

[Camino LS6]

When you come up with more thoughts, I am all ears...or er..eyes, this is the internet after all.

Sixty-Six

I'll have to see what happened in the House today, before I post any more opinion.

[ehaase]

I found this blog several months ago and enjoy all the articles. For someone like me unable to watch the hearings, I found this article on yesterday's hearing very interesting -

http://www.christonium.com/automotive/ItemID=12284939913205

[Camino LS6]

I found this blog several months ago and enjoy all the articles. For someone like me unable to watch the hearings, I found this article on yesterday's hearing very interesting -

http://www.christonium.com/automotive/ItemID=12284939913205

Extremely well-written, and I share his conclusions and guarded optimism.

[haypops]

http://www.christonium.com/automotive/ItemID=12284939913205

Bookmarked and thank you.

from NBC

NBC's Ken Strickland has the scoop on what's next for the auto bailout: The Senate will be in session Monday at 3 p.m. and will likely act first -- unless the Bush administration acts unilaterally. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has instructed Banking Chairman Chris Dodd and his staff to work over the weekend with the hope of presenting multiple proposals to members on Monday afternoon. Reid will then try to find consensus within his caucus on how to move forward. He'll simultaneously also need to find common ground with Republican Leader Mitch McConnell not only of the substance of any legislative proposals, but equally important, on the process for getting to final votes. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200...05/1700383.aspx

[Satty]

I'm becoming more and more sure Congress is going to pass a bridge loan that will tide the companies over until the new Congress is sworn in and can do something big that the next administration will pass.

[Camino LS6]

I'm becoming more and more sure Congress is going to pass a bridge loan that will tide the companies over until the new Congress is sworn in and can do something big that the next administration will pass.

Agreed.

They will do what they must, and deal with the rest later.

I do think though, that GM will be forced to absorb Chrysler in the end.

Sad, but I don't see it being avoided.

I wish the Big 3 had had time to get their financial houses in order before the economy fell off of the cliff. The story might have been different then, with the marginal imports being forced out instead of Chrysler. Some of that will likely still go on.

There are simply too many players in this market, and some will be weeded out.

I'd love to see GM be able to keep Chrysler's brands alive long enough to sell them again (minus Jeep), but I don't see that as possible.

I'm afraid it is the end of the road for Chrysler, and that just plain sucks.

[Camino LS6]

I may try to watch re-runs of today's house proceedings before I call it a night.

[balthazar]

Again only heard bits-n-pieces via the radio today (coverage was notably less than yesterday). Some of the senators --and one that springs to mind is that wackadoo Waters from CA-- still are unable to grasp the reality of the auto industry, even with as much coverage as has been given and the in-their-lap immediacy of the situation. It would probably be embarassing for the politicians in question if they had much in the way of self-awareness as opposed to self-importance.

I am also in agreement with those that feel some sort of immediate package will pass. Even the obtuse seems to be learning from the hearings...

[regfootball]

I'm becoming more and more sure Congress is going to pass a bridge loan that will tide the companies over until the new Congress is sworn in and can do something big that the next administration will pass.

that indeed is what seems to be happening.