Chevy Considering A Chevelle Or Monte Carlo?

[redfox]

The gto would be bigger and styled different than the camaro so theres no way it would take sales away from the camaro.

[evok]

The gto would be bigger and styled different than the camaro so theres no way it would take sales away from the camaro.

Sorry but the market and auto business is a tad more complex than wishful thinking.

[Drew Dowdell]

Evok and a few others have made the valid point that the coupe market isn't what it used to be. For some time the couple market has remained static, and it's a point I've brought up in the past.

However, there's something else to consider. As coupes were killed off, there were no spikes in the sales of the remaining coupes... something I'll call the pontiac syndrome:  kill of models without replacements, then make an issue of how your sales have dropped." Consider these examples:

* When Ford killed off the Ford Probe, Mustang sales didn't spike.

* The death of the Thunderbird had zilch effect of the Monte Carlo.

* The Camaro's death did not send Monte Carlo's sales upwards. Ditto Cavalier coupe.

* Killing off the Grand Prix coupe, & the Regal coupe didn't send Monte Carlo's sales skywards.

* Ford killed the T-bird in order to help Lincoln Mk VIII sales. Didn't work.

* Killing Toronado didn't help Eldorado.

In ALL these instances, we have coupes whose sales dropped to a point where it was no longer feasible to redesign them, or they didn't sell enough to fit into factory plans, or the manufacturer believed that the sales of one would roll into the other if it was killed off. In every example, that isn't the case.

The point is that there could very well be a large number of potential coupe sales. Far larger than we think.

I'd argue that all of those cars were left to wither in coupe form so they were no longer even competative with their sedan counterparts <when there was one>.

Prime example... The 98 STS was a great improvement over the previous version, yet the Eldorado didn't get the same treatment.

[evok]

I'd argue that all of those cars were left to wither in coupe form so they were no longer even competative with their sedan counterparts <when there was one>.

Prime example... The 98 STS was a great improvement over the previous version, yet the Eldorado didn't get the same treatment.

That was because the Eldo dropped in volume even after the 1996 MCE.

The more modern G body Riviera at the time struggled with 10k/year.

The market died.

[turbo200]

That was because the Eldo dropped in volume even after the 1996 MCE.

The more modern G body Riviera at the time struggled with 10k/year.

The market died.

perhaps coupe buyers were looking for something with more sporting looks than either of those antiquated designs? Ford never had a problem selling Mustangs, Mitsu with Eclipse, Toyota with Celica, even Chevrolet with the Camaro. Riviera and Eldo were simply huge excesses of sheetmetal and mass wrapped around an overall less manueverable car than what the competition was offering=antiquated thinking. The 96 Riv had equivalent rear seat space to my much much smaller 97 Nissan 200sx coupe.

[Flybrian]

perhaps coupe buyers were looking for something with more sporting looks than either of those antiquated designs? Ford never had a problem selling Mustangs, Mitsu with Eclipse, Toyota with Celica, even Chevrolet with the Camaro. Riviera and Eldo were simply huge excesses of sheetmetal and mass wrapped around an overall less manueverable car than what the competition was offering=antiquated thinking. The 96 Riv had equivalent rear seat space to my much much smaller 97 Nissan 200sx coupe.

I don't understand the comparison between luxury coupes and much smaller sport coupes; two seperate markets. Also, Toyota did rather poorly with the 1999 Celica and Mitsibishi's progress with the Eclipse has been so-so as of late.

[evok]

I don't understand the comparison between luxury coupes and much smaller sport coupes; two seperate markets. Also, Toyota did rather poorly with the 1999 Celica and Mitsibishi's progress with the Eclipse has been so-so as of late.

I didn't either.

[ehaase]

I didn't either.

No matter what you say, some of these guys seem to think we can return to the glory days of the 1970's and early 1980's.

[evok]

No matter what you say, some of these guys seem to think we can return to the glory days of the 1970's and early 1980's.

Yea but his defence is bad:

Celica is believe is dead. The Eclipse sold 24k last year up from 12k the year before. The Mustang, well that is an icon. Something that the Camaro name can not even really compare to.

[guionM]

....Styling is critical for that emotional connection.  Any vehicle would have to be more than a two door version of its donor vehicle...

...At the same time the manufacturer has to very careful in this segment.  This is the ADD market segment.  What is hot today could be as cold as ice tomorrow.... 

...The market could not handle the Camaro, Challenger, Monte, Chevelle, GTO, Mustang, Thunderbird like they once could in the past.  It would have to be selective targeting and controled cost to make one or two larger coupes successful in the market.

I agree 100% that styling is the key to coupe revival. There is no longer a point (or a market IMO) for the old method of creating 2 door versions of sedans and expecting them to sell. At the same time, these new coupes need to be able to be redesigned at..say... 3 year intervals. 4 with a refresh halfway through.

I do have to disagree with the final paragraph to a degree. The market can handle various coupes from manufacturers if:

1. There are no more than one entry in each class of coupe from a manufacturer.

2. If the structure they are based on is as flexible as the Chevy version of Zeta is.

3. Styling of these coupes are very different... ie: No "common language" with other vehicles in the showroom.

Camaro and Monte Carlo wouldn't overlap any more today than it did in 2002. Demographics were different, and the sales of one didn't impact the other. It seems the only reason anyone has issue with this is because it involves 2 cars with rear drive and V8s as the top powerplant. That's a very narrow view, and isn't supported by anything other than fear based speculation.

There can't be 2 Camaros at GM, and there can't be 2 Monte Carlos/Chevelles. But if the next Pontiac GTO is going to be once again a single model, modest production car, then we are no doubt talking about a GTO that's going to be pulled off of a high volume large coupe. Much like how the new Escalade is a Tahoe with a new nose and interior. Since Chevrolet is going to be GM's volume division, it's Monte Carlo/Chevelle would seem to be the donor car. There wouldn't be a large market for the GTO, but then again, it wouldn't need to be.

As for other car makers, it might be difficult for Ford to produce RWD Thunderbird coupe for their showroom, but it would be easy for them to produce a bigger RWD Mercury coupe. Chrysler could easily create a totally different car by grafting a Chrysler front end and a luxurious 2007 Sebring-like interior to the Dodge Challenger, soften the ride a bit, and market it as a modern luxury coupe.

The G35 coupe created it's own sales. So did the Solara. Thunderbird's 70,000 annual sales evaporated into thin air when they killed it. So did the 30,000 solid or so Buick Regal coupe sales. Ditto the same number of Grand Prix coupe sales when it was pulled. There are plenty of people who had to move out of Camaros and into sedans when they got married and had to buy something a bit more responsible.

These are people who went to Grand Prix sedans & Buick Regal sedans (just as late 90s GM management planned), Ford Taurus, or Japanese coupes and sports sedans. This is a group that simply can't be all coralled into a Chevrolet Camaro anymore than attempting to coral them all into a Cobalt coupe.

[evok]

I agree 100% that styling is the key to coupe revival. There is no longer a point (or a market IMO) for the old method of creating 2 door versions of sedans and expecting them to sell. At the same time, these new coupes need to be able to be redesigned at..say... 3 year intervals. 4 with a refresh halfway through.

I do have to disagree with the final paragraph to a degree. The market can handle various coupes from manufacturers if:

1. There are no more than one entry in each class of coupe from a manufacturer.

2. If the structure they are based on is as flexible as the Chevy version of Zeta is.

3. Styling of these coupes are very different... ie: No "common language" with other vehicles in the showroom.

Camaro and Monte Carlo wouldn't overlap any more today than it did in 2002. Demographics were different, and the sales of one didn't impact the other. It seems the only reason anyone has issue with this is because it involves 2 cars with rear drive and V8s as the top powerplant. That's a very narrow view, and isn't supported by anything other than fear based speculation...... etc 

This discussion has become full circle. Why because what you proposed dilutes the equity a coupe might have to the public. As equity goes away so goes the volume and chance for profitablity.

It has already been shown that the coupe market is relatively small and is not going to grow significantly in volume or appeal.

The 3 pony cars that will be on the market in a few years will absorb a significant amount of that volume. The market will grow significantly from the current volume because they exist. For the most part these three cars are designed to appeal to a very wide audience. All three are larger and more practical than the cars they replaced and can be configured with options to the consumers preference.

In other words these vehicles are designed to appeal to a majority of the sporty coupe market as possible. In many ways these are uniquely styled 2 door versions of their sedan counterparts already.

For that reason, any additional models in the segments by the respective OEMs will divert sales from the mainstream vehicles and more than likely takes sales from the more profitable product mix. There is not a significant amount of volume in the market to justify additional models without canobalizing sales from the lesser models.

In order to justify additional models and cover the development costs at a reduced volume, the MSRP will have to be increased from the lesser cars. By doing that alone, the target columes will drop because of the limiting appeal do to pricing. Also there will have to be a size increase. For the most part these will be US/CA only programs because of that. Thereby further limiting the program volumes.

So unless an OEM can justify additional larger, coupes with target volumes at app 35k/year at a starting MSRP of app. $30k it will not happen. And with more entries into the market under more brands it makes the business case that much harder.

Monte Carlo and Thunderbird might be able to get away with it, if the proposed product is right but after that any additional programs begin to destroy the business case for the rest. If it were to happen it would be based upon wishfull thinking than a sound business decision.

Even if an MC or T-Bird were to emerge, they would be successful assuming they were the only new entries in that market, for how long before the market ADD would kick in?

Chevy can cover the GTO market with the Camaro. They really are the same car in many ways except the Camaro can get away with lesser powertrains.

A two door Mercury based off the Panther? Panther is DOA. A larger 2 door based off the Mustang? Ford is already fighting to keep Mercury alive because its brand appeal is so bad. Adding Mercury into the equation ony adds more uncertainy to an already uncertain market segment. Thunderbird has a lot more brand equity than Cougar or any other blast from the past Mercury nameplate that only old car dreamers remember. Maurauder anyone? That was a bust.

A Chrysler version of the Challenger. The Challenger is already designed for a niche volume pony car fight and already at the large end of the segment. I highly doubt DCX will split and compartmentalize the segment further. The Firepower is where Chrysler is headed.

Edited June 23, 2006 by evok

[rkmdogs]

I could be wrong, but I thought that the W-Bodies were supposed to replace both the A and G cars when all was said and done.  I remember the G coupes were given a reprieve for a couple of years and the old A cars lived until about 1997.  All of that because the W cars were not well received and expensive because they were delayed a couple years because of the Smith re-org.

But time goes on and memories begin to fade.

You guys are missing the most important factor! The old G bodied vehicles had

full perimeter frames on them and were not unibodied vehicles!

They had better flex resistance and durability!...... but they also cost more to make!

It was bean-counter wins that made the change!

Forget the style angle for once, and consider the technology changes that occurred! That was critical to the downslide.............

[Camino LS6]

As future GM RWD coupes in some form are a given, this is what I see happening in the first few years of them being offered.

Pontiac gets a limited-volume, Holden-built GTO.

Chevy gets both Camaro and MC/Chevelle built in NA.

All three would differ significantly.

Other "maybe" cars could follow:

El Camino (Holden-built)

A Buick convertible (Holden-built?)

A Caddy Coupe (NA built)

Add these to the Zeta/Zeta lite sedans and you have a great selection of RWD cars with very little overlap.

If the market expands, which I believe is possible, zeta could spawn a great many other variants. Some could replace slow selling models and some could simply be additions. Sales of Zeta/Zeta lite worldwide could be staggering.

[evok]

No matter what is being reported elsewhere - there are only 3 US zeta cars right now.

The Lucerne, Impala and Camaro. Everything else is pure rumour.

Didn't we just go through all of this a few months ago with the Firebird.

Because GM works on a styling study it does not mean there is a GMX/T program associated with it.

Nuff said.

[ocnblu]

blah, blah, blah. With SUVs being over, Americans will want to drive something non-wimpy like the SUV they trade in. A perfect environment for Zeta to take off, in any number of iterations.

Imagine a diesel Zeta Impala taxi cab and an LS7 Impala police cruiser. Chevrolet would own the official/livery market again. Impala will be hugely successful on this platform, and there will be room for ancillary vehicles to thrive.

[Carguy]

I would LOVE to see a RWD V6-V8 2+2 CAMARO Coupe/Conv $17K-$27K----then a larger----RWD V6-V8 2+3 CHEVELLE Coupe $22K-$32K to go with the IMPALLA Sedan. Let the RWD POWERFULL LUXURY COUPE go to PONTIAC with the 450+HP V8 ONLY $35+K GTO and let the CHEVELLE replace the (((MURDERED))) DUE TO (((FWD))) MONTE CARLO!