Toyota News: Toyota Unveils Full Global Battery Electric Line-up

[G. David Felt]

Toyota is not new to auto electrification, but they have found themselves on the far side of the moon in comparison to other OEMs in being ready to sell electric autos to the global public.

Toyota sued California CARB in attempts to stay ICE with their hybrid Prius line-up and Hydrogen as Toyota had bet big on Hydrogen over electric autos to the extent of selling Hydrogen autos in California and building some Hydrogen fueling stations. Yet while this could be the way for Semi trucks or what is known as Class 8 heavy haulers that use hydrogen generators to power an electric power train, it seems the public has chosen to endorse BEV or battery electric autos.

As such, Toyota has had to make a massive change and went on a hiring spree of engineers to support a global electric auto lineup for Toyota and Lexus and with that, they have announced the following:

• Akio Toyoda announces 30 battery electric models by 2030
• Total global battery electric vehicle sales to reach 3.5M within same timeframe
• Lexus aims for 100% battery electric mix in Europe*, N. America and China by 2030
• Announcement underpins Toyota Motor Europe plan for 100% CO₂ reduction in all new vehicles sales by 2035 in West Europe
• bZ battery electric family in Europe to expand with introduction of a small crossover as follow up to bZ4X launch

They also had a Media Briefing on their battery EV strategies:

It would appear that the Toyota Tacoma electric pickup is their most complete concept EV that could go into production.

Sadly, for some weird reason, I cannot download the press release images from their website, please look at the images here:

Electric Auto Portfolio

It would seem Bugatti has rubbed off on Toyota / Lexus for one of their electric super cars.

Strangely I find the future design directive of Toyota / Lexus to be a very Angular style.

I did find that all the extra-large images have been posted here:

Toyota Pickup EV Concept Likely Previews Electric Tacoma (insideevs.com)

Toyota unveils full global battery electric line-up

Video: Media Briefing on Battery EV Strategies | Corporate | Global Newsroom | Toyota Motor Corporation Official Global Website

View full article

[balthazar]

The above pic is primarily computer-renders; note the chopped-off wheels of the far right 2nd-row one, pus the cast shadows are inconsistent. Not so sure toyoter has it's ducks in a line yet on this move. 

[Robert Hall]

The blue one looks a new FJ Cruiser..that looks interesting, along w/ the sports cars.

[ccap41]

Sweet, a bunch of CGI electric vehicles.

They're still way behind. 

[smk4565]

2030 is a long away off, you can develop a car in 3-4 years, and Toyota is big enough to develop multiple at one time.  This isn't one product at a time Tesla, Toyota probably has more cash and resources than any other car company.  Although they are also more cautious and slow moving than most car companies, as they hate risk.  I think they are late to the party, maybe that will hurt them, maybe they can use their size and scale to catch up and it won't matter, time will tell.

[balthazar]

Of course, you can't start developing a vehicle you intend to sell that year. And (assumedly) with a brand new, untried architecture, toyoter would need at least 5 years' head start, which means 2024 (for a fall 2029 intro). They were lobbying against BE moves like 5 minutes ago. Which means they have less than 3 years.

[G. David Felt]

15 hours ago, smk4565 said:

2030 is a long away off, you can develop a car in 3-4 years, and Toyota is big enough to develop multiple at one time.  This isn't one product at a time Tesla, Toyota probably has more cash and resources than any other car company.  Although they are also more cautious and slow moving than most car companies, as they hate risk.  I think they are late to the party, maybe that will hurt them, maybe they can use their size and scale to catch up and it won't matter, time will tell.

Toyota is late to the party, late to starting battery development and supplies, late to the whole EV movement as they bet on Hybrids going to Hydrogen. Yet Hydrogen makes no sense in the retail auto space unlike Semi trucks which make more sense. Sadly, we all know that Hydrogen takes more energy to produce the fuel than what you get out of it and the market has spoken so Toyota is behind the 8 ball and is doing the same thing they did the last 5 years, legal lawsuits to try and postpone them losing market share.

They not only still are pushing their worthless lawsuit against CARB and California to stop EVs, but they have also even filed legal motions against their own Japanese government which is moving forward with support for EVs over Hydrogen.

They might have money in the bank, but they have idiots in leadership positions and that will cost them in the long run. 

Interesting times we live in and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top as I do not expect Tesla to be tops in the EV auto market once Everyone Has EVs to sell.

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Of course, you can't start developing a vehicle you intend to sell that year. And (assumedly) with a brand new, untried architecture, toyoter would need at least 5 years' head start, which means 2024 (for a fall 2029 intro). They were lobbying against BE moves like 5 minutes ago. Which means they have less than 3 years.

Agree, Toyota is a good 5 to 6 years behind everyone else since they bet big on Hydrogen only to lose out. I actually expect them to do ok with Electric Semi Trucks powered by Hydrogen Generators, but in the retail auto space, they are falling behind fast.

[smk4565]

Agree that Toyota made a lot of mistakes, and is way late.  But if they pull a 180 and go all in on EV then I wouldn't be surprised if they have a line up of EV's at better prices than the competition and with the Toyota reliability/quality/resale advantage that they have now over competitors.  

[balthazar]

Toyoter lost their reliability advantage a decade ago.

[G. David Felt]

On 12/18/2021 at 12:23 PM, smk4565 said:

Agree that Toyota made a lot of mistakes, and is way late.  But if they pull a 180 and go all in on EV then I wouldn't be surprised if they have a line up of EV's at better prices than the competition and with the Toyota reliability/quality/resale advantage that they have now over competitors.  

Toyota IMHO does not have Reliability. Too much proof out there online but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

Even with a 180 that Toyota is implying they are doing as they have announced a battery plant to be built and operational by 2025 in Liberty NC Toyota to build $1.29 billion EV battery plant in North Carolina (cnbc.com)

They are still going to be behind everyone else and they have stated that the bulk of their EVs will be out by 2030 but everyone else especially GM is planning to have most in production by 2025 with more coming out and refresh versions between 2025 and 2030.

Toyota is late and there is NOTHING they can do at this point to make up the ground. Lemmings are always willing to wait to be told when and what to do, so I am sure the Toyota Lemmings buyers will wait and be half a decade behind everyone else.

[surreal1272]

On 12/18/2021 at 3:58 PM, balthazar said:

Toyoter lost their reliability advantage a decade ago.

No they really haven't despite your many claims to such things. Issues? Yes. Recalls? Also yes. Does that mean their reliability is garbage? Nope. not one damn bit.

 

 

14 hours ago, David said:

Even with a 180 that Toyota is implying they are doing as they have announced a battery plant to be built and operational by 2025 in Liberty NC Toyota to build $1.29 billion EV battery plant in North Carolina (cnbc.com)

Being built less than ten miles from my house, for the record. I will say this too. For all of Toyotas problems with quick changes in the market (and their stupid commitment to hydrogen), if you think they won't catch up in a hurry, then you are fooling yourself. That have the capital to get on the wagon quick. Being first to produce something doesn't mean squat in the car world anymore. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

14 hours ago, David said:

Toyota IMHO does not have Reliability. Too much proof out there online but everyone is entitled to their opinion.

There are all sorts of opinions online. I can go to any number of forums related to various cars owned by various members here and can find plenty of problems. The point is that the internet is for complainers and no one compliments anything to anywhere near the same degree as which they would direct a complaint. That is a fact. The fact also remains that Toyota and Lexis routinely clean everyone's clock in just about every reliability survey. That doesn't mean that everyone else sucks but to think Toyotas are somehow piles of $h! (for whatever reason) is beyond ill-informed.

Edited December 20, 2021 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

^ My statement was- they have no "advantage", not that they were 'POS'.

[surreal1272]

3 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ My statement was- they have no "advantage", not that they were 'POS'.

And my statement is that they STILL have that advantage. Not sure how you can interpret that any other way. 

 

And no offense but you have implied (many times) that Toyotas are basically junk and garbage so there is that.

Edited December 20, 2021 by surreal1272

[smk4565]

You can look at how many 200k plus mileage Toyotas and Lexus are out there.  Also look at what those sell for compared to an American car.  Whenever I run values on cars for work, if it is an FCA, Ford or GM product nearing 200k miles or above, the car is basically worthless, maybe $3k.  A 200k mile Camry could still be a $10k car, because there is an expectation that Toyotas just last forever.  

[balthazar]

Like I said; perceptions lag.

[oldshurst442]

4 hours ago, smk4565 said:

 A 200k mile Camry could still be a $10k car,

There is no entity that is going to buy a private person's 200K Camry for 10 thousand dollars...

Let me put it this way...

YOU own a 200K Camry regardless the year, and you waltz into ANY brand dealership, including a Toyoter dealership, and you want to trade in your 200K Camry for a new car, no dealership from here to hell will give you 10 thousand dollars for it.

The dealership will give you 200 thousand REASONS as to why your 200K Camry is worth maybe $200.00 

HOWEVER, anybody selling a 200K Camry, from a used car dealership to a private sale, to a stupid fool thinking that Toyoters are soooooo phoquing reliable, that stupid gullible Toyoter fool just might fork over 10 000 dollars for one.

So yeah...  Perception....  

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by oldshurst442

[surreal1272]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

^ My statement was- they have no "advantage", not that they were 'POS'.

And you are wrong on that too. Outside of their full size pick up SUV offerings, they sell everything they can make and they sell more than the competition (on average) and it is precisely because of that advantage that you think doesn’t exist. 
 

Btw, you need to read what I actually said about your POS statement. That’s all I’m goi g to say because you clearly misread it. 

[balthazar]

That's sounding vaguely like the smk argument; 'it sells the most so it's the best'.

[surreal1272]

7 hours ago, balthazar said:

That's sounding vaguely like the smk argument; 'it sells the most so it's the best'.

And it’s sounding not so vaguely like you still are missing the point so let me say it one more time. Those sales were mentioned to illustrate the fact that it is directly connected to the perception that those buyers have about Toyota, a perception you claim (without proof) doesn’t exist or is somehow “waning”. It is really that simple. You don’t like Toyota. I get it. I don’t care for everything they do either. However, I am also not blind and can also discern (without the anti-Toyota bias you’ve shown over the years here) that millions of people perceive Toyotas as reliable and dependable. It was true thirty years ago and it’s true now and that perception has not changed for most people, whether you want to acknowledge that fact or not. 

Edited December 21, 2021 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

14 hours ago, smk4565 said:

A 200k mile Camry could still be a $10k car,

Cite an actual the year of said Camry that you think would sell for $10K. The only models I have seen (via Autotrader) that can sell for that kind of coin are the hybrid models, which sell for far more new than the regular Camrys. Not one Camry over ten years old sells for anywhere close to $10K with that kind of mileage. 

[Robert Hall]

A search locally turned up a couple 2012-2014 Camry Hybrids around $10k with 130-165k miles, and one 2008 Hybrid with a little over 100k miles.   The lowest mileage seems to be a 2005 w/ only 59k for $9999. 

[oldshurst442]

8 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

A search locally turned up a couple 2012-2014 Camry Hybrids around $10k with 130-165k miles, and one 2008 Hybrid with a little over 100k miles.   The lowest mileage seems to be a 2005 w/ only 59k for $9999. 

like I said...

A used car dealership or a private sale WILL be asking 10 grand for a Camry.  Only a blind, Toyoter fool will fork over that money for one.

HOWEVER, the dealership on a trade will NEVER buy a used Camry for that much...

$10K for a Hybrid Camry with 130-165 k miles?  The dealership will offer to buy that car for 5 thousand...  And not a penny more.  Will probably put it up for sale for $12K...

I wont buy it.

Balthazar will certainly not buy it.

But a blind Toyoter faithful lapdog certainly will.   

The Camry will fall apart on him the very next day, but the fool will certainly ignore the problems and will praise it.  And the reason being is because he had an uncle back in the day 40 years ago in '81 who bought a Chevy and the radio knob fell off and therefore he swore off American cars forever...   

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by oldshurst442

[balthazar]

11 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

that perception has not changed for most people, whether you want to acknowledge that fact or not.

But I did acknowledge it, 4 posts above yours.

[surreal1272]

11 minutes ago, balthazar said:

But I did acknowledge it, 4 posts above yours.

Saying "Like I said, perception lags" isn't really acknowledging what I am saying here but whatever, quite honestly. There is no perception lag where Toyota is concerned.

[ForzaJersey]

On 12/19/2021 at 5:51 PM, David said:

Even with a 180 that Toyota is implying they are doing as they have announced a battery plant to be built and operational by 2025 in Liberty NC Toyota to build $1.29 billion EV battery plant in North Carolina (cnbc.com)

They are still going to be behind everyone else and they have stated that the bulk of their EVs will be out by 2030 but everyone else especially GM is planning to have most in production by 2025 with more coming out and refresh versions between 2025 and 2030.

Toyota is late and there is NOTHING they can do at this point to make up the ground. Lemmings are always willing to wait to be told when and what to do, so I am sure the Toyota Lemmings buyers will wait and be half a decade behind everyone else.

Late for what? LMAO! I love the hype machine around BEVs. The BEV market's growth is exaggerated and BEV market share is projected to be between 9-16% by 2030 with BEVs not going mainstream until the 40s. Toyota is wise to not prematurely abandon the ICE vehicle market before BEV demand materializes in the real world. There's no reason that any major ICE automaker in 2021 should feel they are late to the BEV party. I suspect that as the Biden administration's political capital becomes exhausted automakers will quietly walk back BEV commitments. 

[surreal1272]

4 minutes ago, ForzaJersey said:

I suspect that as the Biden administration's political capital becomes exhausted automakers will quietly walk back BEV commitments. 

Literally not a chance of that happening (for automakers).

 

And reports widely vary on projected growth because there is still a lot of product that has to come out between now and 2030. Too many unknown variables to sound that certain. I know this. This has been in motion long before Biden so...

[oldshurst442]

 

5 minutes ago, ForzaJersey said:

Late for what? LMAO! I love the hype machine around BEVs. The BEV market's growth is exaggerated and BEV market share is projected to be between 9-16% by 2030 with BEVs not going mainstream until the 40s. Toyota is wise to not prematurely abandon the ICE vehicle market before BEV demand materializes in the real world. There's no reason that any major ICE automaker in 2021 should feel they are late to the BEV party. I suspect that as the Biden administration's political capital becomes exhausted automakers will quietly walk back BEV commitments. 

 

Id take a peak at the links. 

 

https://insideevs.com/news/553972/us-bev-sales-october-2021/

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 

About Toyota, I agree with you.  

About EV sales and percentages and hype machine comments and automakers walking back EV commitments...I dont agree with you.

[ForzaJersey]

44 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Literally not a chance of that happening (for automakers).

 

And reports widely vary on projected growth because there is still a lot of product that has to come out between now and 2030. Too many unknown variables to sound that certain. I know this. This has been in motion long before Biden so...

Yeah because major automakers in the US totally didn't do a 180 from trying to undermine emissions regulations to pushing BEVs in less than 24 months with the hope for EVs goodies at the Federal trough. This is the political reality. I agree they had BEVs in the pipeline either way. 

[surreal1272]

15 minutes ago, ForzaJersey said:

Yeah because major automakers in the US totally didn't do a 180 from trying to undermine emissions regulations to pushing BEVs in less than 24 months with the hope for EVs goodies at the Federal trough. This is the political reality. I agree they had BEVs in the pipeline either way. 

Oh good grief. I really don’t have the time to explain it to you in detail but quite simply, this has been in motion since the Obama years. It’s a known fact. The “180” was just being “on the ready” but every single one knew that the EV writing was on the wall long before a whole eleven months ago when Biden first took office. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by surreal1272

[ForzaJersey]

10 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Oh good grief. I really don’t have the time to explain it to you in detail but quite simply, this has been in motion since the Obama years. It’s a known fact. The “180” was just being “on the ready” but every single one knew that the EV writing was on the wall long before a whole eleven months ago when Biden first took office. 

I'm aware of the history of ZEV programs going back the Clinton and Bush 41 years. This isn't the first time the major automakers greenwashed their image for handouts. I think you are giving them too much credit. 

[surreal1272]

12 minutes ago, ForzaJersey said:

I'm aware of the history of ZEV programs going back the Clinton and Bush 41 years. This isn't the first time the major automakers greenwashed their image for handouts. I think you are giving them too much credit. 

And right now, I think you give too little credit. We will skip the fact that pretty much until the last 10-15 years, the main objector to the EV movement wasn't the automotive industry. That would be big oil and that is a simple fact, because they have put themselves in the pockets of everyone concerned for well over a century and now they are seeing their influence slowly wane with more automakers committing to ZEVs. Not that they won't stop trying but the grip has weakened over the last 10-15 years or so and will continue to do so at this rate.

 

I'm out. Time for an early BD cocktail and much deserved rest.

Edited December 22, 2021 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

2 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

Id take a peak at the links. 

Under 3% USDM market share in 2021.

100% 8 years from now?????

[ForzaJersey]

54 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

 

 

Id take a peak at the links. 

 

https://insideevs.com/news/553972/us-bev-sales-october-2021/

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

 

About Toyota, I agree with you.  

About EV sales and percentages and hype machine comments and automakers walking back EV commitments...I dont agree with you.

Actually, I stand corrected. https://rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Rhodium-Group_Pathways-to-Paris-A-Policy-Assessment-of-the-2030-US-Climate-Target.pdf See page 18 (Figure 4.5). Since BBB looks dead or severely gutted, I'm using the existing policy figures. This is the paper being used to promote the BBB plan by the Biden White House. So, it's the only data showing the impact the BBB could have had.

2025: 9-14% EVs

2030: 16-34% EVs

I mixed up the 9-14% part as 2030. My bad. 

The hype machine is real for BEVs. It's mostly the media's fault but, automakers let rumors run wild to get PR.

Automakers are already beginning to walk back or clarify statements on electrification. https://www.thedrive.com/tech/39016/gm-aspires-to-sell-only-evs-by-2035-heres-how-to-understand-what-that-really-means They allowed the hype (or leaked rumors to fuel it) to spread before quietly resetting expectations to more real world scenarios. Most "EVs" will be actually be plug in hybrids, not pure BEVs.  Which isn't a such bad thing considering you can treat them like short range BEVs but, you can still refuel in a few mins if your needs change. 

Thanks for the links btw. Regardless of the future, BEVs & PHEVs are having a banner year.

6 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Under 3% USDM market share in 2021.

100% 8 years from now?????

Nah, best case it's 55-57% in 2030. It could be as low as 16% by then. Your instincts on this aren't entirely wrong. 

[ForzaJersey]

13 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

And right now, I think you give too little credit. We will skip the fact that pretty much until the last 10-15 years, the main objector to the EV movement wasn't the automotive industry. That would be big oil and that is a simple fact, because they have put themselves in the pockets of everyone concerned for well over a century and now they are seeing their influence slowly wane with more automakers committing to ZEVs. Not that they won't stop trying but the grip has weakened over the last 10-15 years or so and will continue to do so at this rate.

 

I'm out. Time for an early BD cocktail and much deserved rest.

Perhaps so, Big Oil still hasn't yet begun to fight. They still have 280 million customers in the US. Their investments in advanced biofuels, hydrogen, wind/solar, and battery storage suggest they aren't going quietly into the night. We shall see...

Have a great night!

[ForzaJersey]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Under 3% USDM market share in 2021.

100% 8 years from now?????

Nah, best case it's 55-57% in 2030. It could be as low as 16% by then. Your instincts on this aren't entirely wrong. 

Sorry, my reply got sucked into another post. 

[ccap41]

I don't know a single person who believes Toyota lacks a perception in quality. To the vast majority of people, Toyota is still at the top of the heap and to be honest, what is out there to say they're not at the top or top three? Balthazar showing some pictures of Tacoma frames? 

[balthazar]

I agree- the perception is still right up there.  But around the late ‘00s, quality / engineering/ quality control started to slip significantly.  The recalls (in number and volume) and the TSBs have been catastrophically high, and for some head-scratching reasons. 

If it were GM or Ford, ‘journalists’ would scramble to compile an aggregate number ‘since 20xx’, but I’ve researched it, and could find no such tabulation anywhere. When I did a tabulation on my own, the recalls alone were 50 million vehicles, and that was over 5 years ago now. Who knows how many tens of millions of toyoters had factory TSB repairs done.

Folks will argue with me that a factory recall for window switches that catch on fire is no indicator of quality whatsoever, and that having you toyoter at the dealer waiting for parts every other month is no indicator of reliability whatsoever. I heartily disagree.

They made their reputation in the ‘90s and early ‘00s, but they’ve rode that coattail a lot since. They can do a lot better.

[ccap41]

And to think, everybody else is still quite a bit worse. 

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2021-us-vehicle-dependability-study-vds

 

[balthazar]

Lot of folk dismiss the JDPower surveys. I like to consider all (with a grain of salt). 12-month prior window by original owners of 3-yr old vehicle… sounds good on the surface of it.

Question: if a generally-satisfied owner gets 3 or 4 defects fixed via recall/ under warranty, do they always report that incident? 

Wasn’t it CR that published significantly different quality survey results among 2 rebadged-otherwise-identical vehicles? 

[ccap41]

6 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Lot of folk dismiss the JDPower surveys. I like to consider all (with a grain of salt). 12-month prior window by original owners of 3-yr old vehicle… sounds good on the surface of it.

Question: if a generally-satisfied owner gets 3 or 4 defects fixed via recall/ under warranty, do they always report that incident? 

Wasn’t it CR that published significantly different quality survey results among 2 rebadged-otherwise-identical vehicles? 

Possibly but it also depends on what study it was. This is a study of three year old vehicles, not the "initial quality" crap that covers the first 90 days. 

[ccap41]

"The 2021 U.S. Vehicle Dependability Study is based on responses from 33,251 original owners of 2018 model-year vehicles after three years of ownership. The study was fielded from July 2020 through November 2020."

[oldshurst442]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

Under 3% USDM market share in 2021.

100% 8 years from now?????

 

12 hours ago, ForzaJersey said:

Nah, best case it's 55-57% in 2030. It could be as low as 16% by then. Your instincts on this aren't entirely wrong. 

Sorry, my reply got sucked into another post. 

 

Best case scenario being 55-57 percent?

You've already admitted defeat for the internal combustion engine...

 

As low as 16%?

 What both you and Balthy and all who dont want to see the EV change forget to see that the internal combustion engine is being banned and phased out LEGALLY by laws AROUND the planet...   

It DOES NOT MATTER what the acceptance rate of EVs are in the US of A in 2030 when the WORLD is BANNING the internal combustion engine.   

Automakers walking back on their EV portfolio?

Which ones?

The American ones?   Ford and GM?

Stellantis is headquartered in a place where EVs are universally in agreement that its the way of the future. In a place where the internal combustion engine is universally in agreement has run its course.   Stellantis is FORCED not only by WORLD governments to sell ALL EVs, but the company itself NEEDS to do this switch in order to compete as VAG is also a home competitor in this market.   And VAG is also a BIG player in the Asian market. And in the Asian market, EVs are also universally in agreement that its the way of the future where the internal combustion engine is also universally in agreement that has run its course.  And the Asian market has OEMs that are full on EV as of NOW!  

Ford and GM are very very small in comparison to the WORLD's automobile manufacturing.   This aint the 1950s where Ford and GM owned the world...  Ford and GM has since sold off their global partners and simply left some markets.  Alone, GM and Ford are still a huge powerhouse.  But when faced to fight a GLOBAL shift in EVs, Ford and GM are miniscule...

About this shift to EVs and about the internal combustion engine disappearing.

ICE may or may NOT be going anywhere anytime soon.   There are too many ICE vehicles in circulation for the disappearance of the ICE.  BUT... many urban centers (city centers) around the PLANET are flirting with the idea to BAN the ICE.     New York City is ONE of these cities...     So its not as if this shift in thinking hasnt taken shape in the US of A...

And living in Montreal, close to NYC, I havent heard any New Yorker really bitch about this idea as much as I have heard from a longer distance, Alberta Canada and Texas USA how pissed off they are for the switch to EVs...

NYC being the BIGGEST, most populous and STILL the most influential city in America... 

 

[balthazar]

I believe people are deluding themselves that they're going to see ONLY battery-electric vehicles on the road in their lifetime.

The NYState 2035 'ban' is only on new, light-duty vehicle sales.  Medium & HD are still permitted (until 2045).  And existing IC vehicles are still permitted (indefinately).

As of 2019, there are about 12.1 million registered drivers with 4.5 million vehicles registered in NYS.  
[Frankly; that seems strangely low- NJ has 6.3M drivers and 2.8M vehicles.  There's 11M people living outside NYC). 
NYS is about 6% of the new car UDSM (900K units on a 15M unit year).
BE vehicles are about 3% of all new vehicle sales (27K in NYS).

Assuming a market share climb of even 2%/yr (which would be unprecedented), BE's would only have a 30% market share in NY 'naturally' by 2035. What no one knows is what consumers will do come 2035- will they 'binge' on IC in the years before, and will new vehicle sales see a sharp downturn in 2035? Will the average lifespan of 11 or 12 years maintain that depressed sales state until 2047? No one knows.

But the NYS Gov claims NY would see a 85% reduction in state greenhouse emissions, despite transportation (vehicles AND planes AND rail AND trucks) being only an estimated 29% of greenhouse gas emissions.

How they hell did they come up with "85%"???? 

[oldshurst442]

2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I believe people are deluding themselves that they're going to see ONLY battery-electric vehicles on the road in their lifetime.

Never said that we will ONLY see BEVs on the road. Banning of ICE in urban centers is a thing though.

4 minutes ago, balthazar said:

The NYState 2035 'ban' is only on new, light-duty vehicle sales.  Medium & HD are still permitted (until 2045).  And existing IC vehicles are still permitted (indefinately).

Still up for debate what will constitute a ban on.  NYC is fliting with this idea I said to reflect that.

I kept it general.  I used terminology to reflect generalizations. Flirting is such a term that I used.

Montreal wants to ban ICE vehicles outright in the downtown core...    Again, nothing concrete though as the term 'flirting with the idea' seems to be accurate. 

https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/12/15/montreal-ban-ice-cars-2030/

Europe's measures regarding ICE vehicles in their urban centers versus an entire ban versus smog regulations are always being defined.  Especially when it comes to individual countries and further more when it comes to urban centers. Walking back from certain bans but always restricting the internal combustion emissions...

World governments DO acknowledge the millions upon millions of ICE vehcles that are GOING to be sold from now until 2030-2035.  NOBODY, including myself, is NOT denyiung that.

But it seems that you WANT to ignore the ever present RESTRICTIONS that are made AGAINST the internal combustion vehicle.  

World wide, there WILL be a ban on the internal combustion engine. What seems to me by certain "walk backs" is the most painless way for everybody to cope with an eventual ban of the internal combustion engine.  THAT is why there is a walk back. NOT because of the idea that people will rebel against it because people do not want EVs. But because ICE will STILL be present. And you cant just whisk those cars away with a snap of the fingers. But...dont kid yourselves, the SALE OF NEW internal combustion engine vehicles for average joe folks to commute privately will come to an end by THIS decade.  

And no...Ford and GM and Stellantis and VAG and Mercedes and Volvo and Honda and Toyota and Hyundai motors and all those Chinese makes will NOT walk back on their agendas to quit selling ICE vehicles and that their portfolio will ONLY be EVs.  THAT is coming...  

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

the SALE OF NEW internal combustion engine vehicles for average joe folks to commute privately will come to an end by THIS decade. 

It's the '20s, the proposed bans are for the '30s & '40s.
Many of the initial '2030's have already pushed back to '2035'.
That's not "this decade".

It's still a looming unknown to what extent people will buy BE's.
If new sales are banned, and buyers do not buy, would Big Gov't step in with more free money & OEM bailouts??

1 hour ago, oldshurst442 said:

you WANT to ignore the ever present RESTRICTIONS that are made AGAINST the internal combustion vehicle.

Which are?

[smk4565]

On 12/21/2021 at 8:58 AM, surreal1272 said:

Cite an actual the year of said Camry that you think would sell for $10K. The only models I have seen (via Autotrader) that can sell for that kind of coin are the hybrid models, which sell for far more new than the regular Camrys. Not one Camry over ten years old sells for anywhere close to $10K with that kind of mileage. 

A Camry Hybrid can probably bring that money if it isn't too old.   But you can look at any used Toyota in about any segment and it has higher resale than the competitors.  FJ Cruisers and 4Runners bring stupid money on the used market or at auctions.  Bottom line is Toyota has an advantage in the mind of the consumers, that's why they are the number # selling car brand and have great resale.  And I suspect they'll be fine with EV's.  Anyone that thinks Lucid, Rivian, Bollinger or some upstart is going to challenge Toyota is delusional.  I doubt Tesla will really challenge them at the end of the day, because we've yet to see Tesla scale up or be able to put new products on market every year.

[smk4565]

On 12/21/2021 at 10:17 PM, surreal1272 said:

And right now, I think you give too little credit. We will skip the fact that pretty much until the last 10-15 years, the main objector to the EV movement wasn't the automotive industry. That would be big oil and that is a simple fact, because they have put themselves in the pockets of everyone concerned for well over a century and now they are seeing their influence slowly wane with more automakers committing to ZEVs. Not that they won't stop trying but the grip has weakened over the last 10-15 years or so and will continue to do so at this rate.

 

Agree, big oil will lose influence over time.  And Wall Street is all about EV, that's where the money goes, the legacy auto makers see a company like Rivian or Lucid who have sold about 7 cars between the two of them valued higher than Ford by the investor community.   Thus legacy auto maker shareholders tell the board they need to make EV's or else they are going to pull out and give their money to Elon.

[oldshurst442]

17 hours ago, balthazar said:

It's still a looming unknown to what extent people will buy BE's.

They will have NO choice BUT to buy an EV when all OEMs STOP producing ICE vehicles...

What?  Folk will refuse to buy new cars and just stick to used ICE vehicles? 

HA!  That is funny! 

And besides, like I said, urban centers are flirting with banning ICE vehicles in their downtown cores...

The fact that OEMs tell us that they will STOP producing ICE vehicles and have ALREADY STOPPED R&D on the  internal combustion engine is what we often ignore...

We DO however have wishful thinking in that we say stuff like OEMs will backtrack on that idea...  But THAT is what is NOT happening as like I said, the PLANET has decided that the internal combustion engine is done for...

In 2030 or 2035... (yeah yeah...I said by the end of THIS decade) 99% of the world's OEMs will stop producing ICE vehicles.  That is it. No more new internal combustion engined vehicles. By 2035.  Finished. Sure, one could buy used, but when mayors of cities will ban them from their urban centers.  

Dont forget, there will be MORE EV choices.  More EV choices than ICE choices by the end of THIS decade.  ICE choices WILL dwindle...   

It was said that FoMoCo forced people to buy the ecoboosted 6 F150 by not producing and having  many 5.0 F150s on hand to sell.   Just a rumour.  But that was the popular thing to say about ecoboosted 6 cylinder sales of the F150 versus the 5.0 F150. And now, the ecoboosted F150 is well accepted???!!!  Just a tactic that may be in use...

Lets agree to say that we will both see what will happen in 2030-2035 as we both really dont know what will happen...

[balthazar]

I agree with your last statement, which is why I posted primarily in the form of questions.

Those that are implementing (or contemplating implementing) rigid bans don't have any answers either, which is why I've always said pre-emptive long-term bans are idiotic.