Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[G. David Felt]

Interesting, I saw this story about $1.5 Billion for buying clean electric buses across the nation. So I figure as per some that say the EV buses are about $500,000 each, how many would be bought? 3,000 So then I thought, wonder how many public buses are in the U.S. as I never really thought about it before.

Per the following info: School Buses: America's Largest Transit System | Newgeography.com

We got a long way to go to replace buses!  

[balthazar]

480,000 + 96,000 + 35,000... but don't forget the Gov't fleet of 695,000. 

1,306,000,000 vehicles, all a factor of anywhere from twice to 5 times the cost of the existing fleet... 3/4s of a trillion? Factor in the time & inefficiency element to do so (50 years) and it'll grow to 2 trillion. Then there's the recycling of 1.3 million vehicles, plus -of course- the taxes, fees, certification and administrative costs for the recycling... make it 5 trillion.

No prob- take 6-9 months.

[balthazar]

February '22 average new vehicle transaction price : $46,085. [~ KBB.com]

February '22 average new EV vehicle transaction price : $60,064. [~ Edmunds]

[surreal1272]

12 minutes ago, balthazar said:

February '22 average new vehicle transaction price : $46,085. [~ KBB.com]

February '22 average new EV vehicle transaction price : $60,064. [~ Edmunds]

Well since one is skewed by a relative abundance of luxury EVs, that is not surprising. What should “surprise” everyone is how the IC new vehicle transaction price was $41K barely six months ago. 

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

480,000 + 96,000 + 35,000... but don't forget the Gov't fleet of 695,000. 

1,306,000,000 vehicles, all a factor of anywhere from twice to 5 times the cost of the existing fleet... 3/4s of a trillion? Factor in the time & inefficiency element to do so (50 years) and it'll grow to 2 trillion. Then there's the recycling of 1.3 million vehicles, plus -of course- the taxes, fees, certification and administrative costs for the recycling... make it 5 trillion.

No prob- take 6-9 months.

$500K for an EV bus is cheaper than current diesel options. This was written three years ago,

https://www.liveabout.com/bus-cost-to-purchase-and-operate-2798845

 

And I quote,

”Diesel buses are the most common type of bus in the United States, and they cost around $550,000 per vehicle (according to a 2016 study).”

[balthazar]

^ Also skewed by luxury vehicles/trucks.

I would assume sliding back toward a more 'normal' product mix would further correct the ATP overall (it was down slightly from the recent peak), but the bulk of upcoming EVs are still starting pretty high-priced.  Lyriq is the next GM EV and it starts at $60K, too.

Have to see how it looks in a year.

[surreal1272]

11 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ Also skewed by luxury vehicles/trucks.

Deflection because, as a matter of percentages, there are more luxury cars on the EV side than IC. EVs started with luxury cars so it is easily explained.

12 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Lyriq is the next GM EV and it starts at $60K, too.

And the Equinox is another GM EV and it's shooting for $30K so...

[balthazar]

EV school buses are still far more expensive than diesel options : 

Edited March 11, 2022 by balthazar

[surreal1272]

23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

EV school buses are still far more expensive than diesel options : 

Good grief. Not debating the difference in price with school buses. What I found odd, and hence why I provided an article about it, os that CITY BUSES are much more closely priced. Why are EV school busses such a big jump over gas buses is beyond me when city busses are not. I guess one of the biggest differences would be the total lack of AC in school buses when compared to city buses but there has to be more to it than that. 

And I would love to know which part of my earlier post is "funny".

And since there is this thinking that up front price is the be all, end all, I submit some context on the claims.

 

https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/electric-buses-mass-transit-seen-cost-effective

Edited March 11, 2022 by surreal1272

[G. David Felt]

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

EV school buses are still far more expensive than diesel options : 

Everything I read shows they are about the same when you factor in all the maintenance Diesel buses have and the cost of fuel in comparison to electricity.

As per the link @surreal1272 posted, EV buses run 55 cents per mile to maintain versus $1.53 per mile for Diesel.

Even in 2018 for fleets it was showing EV buses are cheaper in the long run than Diesel.

Electric buses, including costs on climate and health, are cheaper than diesel - Sustainable Bus (sustainable-bus.com)

Interesting studies on cost of ownership.

Total Cost of Ownership: Determining if Electric Buses are Right for Your District - First Student, Inc. (firststudentinc.com)

Another interesting study that shows while Diesel buses are cheaper than CNG Hybrid or Electric, CNG is only 50 cents per mile to operate, Electric is 41 cents per mile to operate and diesel is 8 times more expensive.

NREL Study Compares Costs Of Operating CNG Buses Versus Electric Buses - enrg.io

Interesting to compare how the upfront costs with lower maintenance versus lower up front cost, but much higher maintenance. 

Truly a world of change is coming.

[balthazar]

Transit buses & motor coaches may well have vastly different results monetarily. 

But if you remember; we've discussed school buses specifically before. As your earlier link stated- they are the largest bus fleet in the U.S., but as opposed to an annual mileage of a transit bus being 87K/yr, a school bus only averages 8K/yr - 1/11th the mileage. Therefore, the fuel used is 1/11th (and nearly no maintenance- that's 1 oil change), and a BE bus desperately needs high mileage to overcome the 2.5 times higher purchase costs. Eventually, fuel costs over 87K miles/yr/many years can overcome a huge price disparity... but that's not the case with school buses. Add into it the common practice the vast majority of school districts do, which is to cap the year span of a buses' service life, and thusly; shorten the return on investment, and it's never remotely going to come close to running a IC bus. Unless... one day, battery packs fall to 10% of their current cost, or they keep a BE school bus in service for double or more their current time spans. Maybe these things will happen, but they don't currently.

You have to admit; it's a rarity where one solution fits all scenarios. 

[G. David Felt]

Seems that Tesla 4680 cells are finally going into production April 2023 and Panasonic says these cells should help achieve the $25,000 EV.

New Tesla (TSLA) Battery Key to $25,000 Electric Cars Prepared by Panasonic - Bloomberg

[riviera74]

On 3/19/2022 at 12:44 PM, David said:

Seems that Tesla 4680 cells are finally going into production April 2023 and Panasonic says these cells should help achieve the $25,000 EV.

New Tesla (TSLA) Battery Key to $25,000 Electric Cars Prepared by Panasonic - Bloomberg

It's about time.  We all need cheaper BEVs in order to replace the used car fleet of ICE vehicles.  I do hope that competition can drive a $25K vehicle down to below $20K.

[oldshurst442]

except the Muskian Musk Muscovite recently said that he aint interested in engineering and manufacturing a 25 grand vehicle.   He has autonomous driving on his mind moreso than a sub 25 G vehicle.  That and he adorably wants to fight Putin in a ring to end the war.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.torquenews.com/15475/tesla-potential-risk-if-not-developing-25k-electric-car

News about the development of a C-segment compact car for Tesla was denied by Elon Musk during the latest financial results presentation, Q4 2021 shareholders call. Musk assured that they were not currently working on a $25,000 model; he even pointed out that this was actually the wrong question: “We're not currently working on a $25,000 car. At some point we will, but we have enough on our plate right now (…) It's actually the wrong question,” Musk said, responding to a question from an investor. He was referring to the fact that what really matters for him is making autonomous driving a reality, because at that moment "the cost of transport will be reduced, I don't know, by a factor of four to five."

[G. David Felt]

2 hours ago, riviera74 said:

It's about time.  We all need cheaper BEVs in order to replace the used car fleet of ICE vehicles.  I do hope that competition can drive a $25K vehicle down to below $20K.

I agree that the low end of the market will need to have a portfolio. Not totally sure that an American or German/European will do it. I also as @oldshurst442 agree that Tesla will not do it. I expect South Korea and China with Japan maybe doing something later.

[riviera74]

4 minutes ago, David said:

I agree that the low end of the market will need to have a portfolio. Not totally sure that an American or German/European will do it. I also as @oldshurst442 agree that Tesla will not do it. I expect South Korea and China with Japan maybe doing something later.

Well, I think that GM or Ford COULD do it.  Whether they will is another question entirely.

You may be right about one thing:  China, then Japan and/or South Korea are most likely to sell a $20K-25K BEV sometime in the future.

[balthazar]

2 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

[Musk] was referring to the fact that what really matters for him is making autonomous driving a reality, because at that moment "the cost of transport will be reduced, I don't know, by a factor of four to five."

Interesting in light of the fact that Tesla's own 'full self driving' feature costs 12 grand alone, plus $2400/yr subscription [cnet.com].

Maybe he meant to say 'raise the cost of transport by a factor of 1/4th to 1/5th'?

Edited March 21, 2022 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

Tesla's main concentration on their next 3 product launches are all expensive and niche.

The Semi is commercial.  Expensive for regular folk.  Rigs cost 150 000 dollars and I gather the Tesla Semi would be in that price range as well.

The Cybertruck is a lifestyle thing and it wont be affordable JUST of the nature of the thing. Its niche. Especially the way its styled AND engineered.   Musk says it will be sub 40 thousand. Musk also said that the Model 3 will be sub 35 thousand.  And it hardly was that price.  

The roadster is a sportscar.  Niche.  And it wont occupy Corvette's market either. It will occupy Ferrari's entry level price market.

As far as GM and Ford goes in offering a 25 000 dollar EV.  I dont see why not?

I dont have an idea how FoMoCo could accomplish such a thing, but GM's Ultium platform is super versatile and scalable. GM will have a family of motors that will be paired with several KM/H battery packs mixing and matching and creating more than 30 vehicles. 

I dont remember how GM's Ultium battery tech compare's to Panasonic's 4680, I seem to recollect that both battery techs are very similar.

[balthazar]

Tesla had a 'not-on-the-menu' Model 3 for $35K base... for all of 6 months.  Couldn't hold the line.

[G. David Felt]

14 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

Tesla's main concentration on their next 3 product launches are all expensive and niche.

The Semi is commercial.  Expensive for regular folk.  Rigs cost 150 000 dollars and I gather the Tesla Semi would be in that price range as well.

The Cybertruck is a lifestyle thing and it wont be affordable JUST of the nature of the thing. Its niche. Especially the way its styled AND engineered.   Musk says it will be sub 40 thousand. Musk also said that the Model 3 will be sub 35 thousand.  And it hardly was that price.  

The roadster is a sportscar.  Niche.  And it wont occupy Corvette's market either. It will occupy Ferrari's entry level price market.

As far as GM and Ford goes in offering a 25 000 dollar EV.  I dont see why not?

I dont have an idea how FoMoCo could accomplish such a thing, but GM's Ultium platform is super versatile and scalable. GM will have a family of motors that will be paired with several KM/H battery packs mixing and matching and creating more than 30 vehicles. 

I dont remember how GM's Ultium battery tech compare's to Panasonic's 4680, I seem to recollect that both battery techs are very similar.

Tesla is a shell game that I feel is backed by shady money and the public that has been paying crazy prices for their stock will take the brunt of it if they cannot truly get to being profitable as the manipulation of the books while he expands across the world does not support his "We are profitable" social media statements and they have failed to deliver on low cost solutions focusing on high priced only.

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

Tesla had a 'not-on-the-menu' Model 3 for $35K base... for all of 6 months.  Couldn't hold the line.

Totally agree, What Tesla has said in the past and what they are doing does not match. A shell game that could very much implode.

[balthazar]

People tend to think starting/running a new vehicle OEM is 'easy-peasy'... but the high rate of poor outings in the BE tent (Nikola, Workhorse, Bolinger, maybe Rivian) show that to be anything but.

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

People tend to think starting/running a new vehicle OEM is 'easy-peasy'... but the high rate of poor outings in the BE tent (Nikola, Workhorse, Bolinger, maybe Rivian) show that to be anything but.

Before we take your absolute word for it, tell us how many IC car companies have gone under since the first Model T hit the roads. Now, show us which of these BE companies went under specifically because of the direct order model. Finally, consider that companies like Ford see in a benefit in that direct model as well or else they would not be going that route.

 

Here's the "short" list of failed companies since the advent of the automobile. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

Edited March 21, 2022 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

The popular narrative of 'so much simpler' aside, it has FAR FAR more to do with the State of the Modern Auto rather than motive power.

The industry has gotten MAD complicated. 

[surreal1272]

25 minutes ago, balthazar said:

The popular narrative of 'so much simpler' aside, it has FAR FAR more to do with the State of the Modern Auto rather than motive power.

The industry has gotten MAD complicated. 

Yet none of what you said explains how direct sales (the simpler method) directly led to the downfall of the companies YOU listed. It also doesn’t change the fact that companies have come and gone since the beginning. EVs are no exception here but the implication that direct sales are the issue is highly suspect at best. 

[riviera74]

26 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Yet none of what you said explains how direct sales (the simpler method) directly led to the downfall of the companies YOU listed. It also doesn’t change the fact that companies have come and gone since the beginning. EVs are no exception here but the implication that direct sales are the issue is highly suspect at best. 

Direct sales have nothing to do with it.  State Agency shop laws that protect dealers essentially prevent direct sales on NEW vehicles.  The downfall of car companies require crashing market share with few repeat or conquest buyers.  (See Plymouth, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn in the last 25 years.)

[surreal1272]

9 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

Direct sales have nothing to do with it.  State Agency shop laws that protect dealers essentially prevent direct sales on NEW vehicles.  The downfall of car companies require crashing market share with few repeat or conquest buyers.  (See Plymouth, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn in the last 25 years.)

This too. I have stated here before that the only real issue with direct sales is with dealership lobby friendly states (like Michigan) to prohibit (thorough existing laws) or suggesting further protections against direct sale car companies. They have fought tooth and nail against the model for decades. The EV demand for it is only the most recent battle line we see here now. If there is a failure of companies due to direct sale, then a lot of that blame should be shared by the various supposed pro "free market" governments who fought against the direct sales model their respective states. However, the ones Balth mentioned (Save for Rivian since they are now attempting said model in the real world) never even got to try out said model for reasons NOT related to direct sales. "Simplicity" did not kill them.

[balthazar]

I haven't brought direct sales into the current discussion - the companies I mentioned never got to the point of actual sales (except Rivian has started, but they’ve already pulled back from prior volumes). It was a simple statement of how difficult it is TODAY to break into the market; a comment towards David's post that Tesla 'could implode'.

And not the 'simplicity of sales', but of relative manufacturing of a BE.

Edited March 21, 2022 by balthazar

[Robert Hall]

Manufacturing and delivering a product as complex as a motor vehicle to market with quality in quantity in a reasonable schedule is not an easy task or set of tasks.  Maybe a BE powertrain simplifies to some degree compared to an ICE powertrain, but there are still many systems to integrate to produce a finished, complete vehicle...many of those systems and components are probably outsourced to suppliers, but there is a lot of work to be done to make it so.  

Obviously, big established companies like GM, Ford, VWAG, Daimler, Toyota, etc have decades of experience successfully bringing new models to market and should have an advantage--ICE or BE,  compared to startups trying to do it all from scratch..

[ccap41]

This seems to be potentially awesome. It's quite a ways away from making it to personal vehicles but if all goes well, including the scaling up, this would be a great alternative to crude oil-based gasoline.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/porsche-supercup-efuel-direct-air-carbon-capture/

"In the Magallanes region of Chile, strong williwaw winds power extreme low-pressure systems created by the meeting of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The wind power consistently available there is roughly four times greater than any place on the European continent, which is one reason the plant is in Chile and not in Europe.

The project is a joint effort between HIF (Highly Innovative Fuels), Siemens Energy, ExxonMobil, and the Chilean oil and gas companies ENAP and Empresas Gasco. Once it reaches full commercial capacity in 2026, the plant will be able to produce 1 million tons of green methanol per year, of which a portion will be upconverted to 145 million gallons of gasoline.

In the first year, a 3.4-megawatt Siemens Gamesa wind turbine will power a Siemens Silyzer 200 proton-exchange membrane to produce green hydrogen from water via electrolysis at 65 percent efficiency. Commercialization will up the wind power to 2.5 gigawatts (scaling up the electrolysis accordingly), and further efficiency improvements are expected within the next five years.

A Global Thermostats system extracts CO2 from the air using an amine-based sorbent coating on a porous ceramic honeycomb matrix. CO2 is periodically "washed off" by low-temperature steam to yield 98 percent pure CO2. Green methanol is then formed by running the hydrogen and CO2 through a Johnson Matthey copper-zinc catalyst. Finally, the methanol is vaporized, superheated, and fed to a fluid-bed reactor where an ExxonMobil catalyst helps convert it to gasoline, with water as a byproduct. (This system seems simpler than the one in my October 2018 column.)

The additives and blending required to ensure eFuel can serve as a "drop-in" replacement for crude-based gasoline lowers its carbon intensity figure to around 10, not zero. That still means burning it results in 90 percent less net carbon than standard gasoline, with identical performance properties.

What does it cost? Porsche pegs the initial price at 10 euros per liter ($44.73 per gallon as of this writing!) but expects efficiencies of scale and technology to reduce that to $7.57/gallon by 2026. The automaker initially plans to run its race cars on eFuel in the Mobil 1 Porsche Supercup F1 support series but may eventually use it to fill new road cars at the factory as well as the vehicles used at Porsche Experience Centers. The eMethanol produced in the same plant might someday power the ships that deliver new Porsches. But the end game is to ensure there's a carbon-neutral fuel that can power the 70 percent of all Porsches ever built that are still on the road long after the new-car fleet is fully electrified."

[G. David Felt]

50 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

This seems to be potentially awesome. It's quite a ways away from making it to personal vehicles but if all goes well, including the scaling up, this would be a great alternative to crude oil-based gasoline.

https://www.motortrend.com/features/porsche-supercup-efuel-direct-air-carbon-capture/

"In the Magallanes region of Chile, strong williwaw winds power extreme low-pressure systems created by the meeting of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The wind power consistently available there is roughly four times greater than any place on the European continent, which is one reason the plant is in Chile and not in Europe.

The project is a joint effort between HIF (Highly Innovative Fuels), Siemens Energy, ExxonMobil, and the Chilean oil and gas companies ENAP and Empresas Gasco. Once it reaches full commercial capacity in 2026, the plant will be able to produce 1 million tons of green methanol per year, of which a portion will be upconverted to 145 million gallons of gasoline.

In the first year, a 3.4-megawatt Siemens Gamesa wind turbine will power a Siemens Silyzer 200 proton-exchange membrane to produce green hydrogen from water via electrolysis at 65 percent efficiency. Commercialization will up the wind power to 2.5 gigawatts (scaling up the electrolysis accordingly), and further efficiency improvements are expected within the next five years.

A Global Thermostats system extracts CO2 from the air using an amine-based sorbent coating on a porous ceramic honeycomb matrix. CO2 is periodically "washed off" by low-temperature steam to yield 98 percent pure CO2. Green methanol is then formed by running the hydrogen and CO2 through a Johnson Matthey copper-zinc catalyst. Finally, the methanol is vaporized, superheated, and fed to a fluid-bed reactor where an ExxonMobil catalyst helps convert it to gasoline, with water as a byproduct. (This system seems simpler than the one in my October 2018 column.)

The additives and blending required to ensure eFuel can serve as a "drop-in" replacement for crude-based gasoline lowers its carbon intensity figure to around 10, not zero. That still means burning it results in 90 percent less net carbon than standard gasoline, with identical performance properties.

What does it cost? Porsche pegs the initial price at 10 euros per liter ($44.73 per gallon as of this writing!) but expects efficiencies of scale and technology to reduce that to $7.57/gallon by 2026. The automaker initially plans to run its race cars on eFuel in the Mobil 1 Porsche Supercup F1 support series but may eventually use it to fill new road cars at the factory as well as the vehicles used at Porsche Experience Centers. The eMethanol produced in the same plant might someday power the ships that deliver new Porsches. But the end game is to ensure there's a carbon-neutral fuel that can power the 70 percent of all Porsches ever built that are still on the road long after the new-car fleet is fully electrified."

Very cool tech and alternative fuel, hope they can truly deliver as it will make those that hold onto ICE happy.

[ccap41]

37 minutes ago, David said:

Very cool tech and alternative fuel, hope they can truly deliver as it will make those that hold onto ICE happy.

Yeah, it would be nice to still have OEMs make niche ICE vehicles XX years from now, even if the fuel prices are pretty nuts, just a nice option.