Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[balthazar]

^ What is it stick-shifting??

[G. David Felt]

19 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ What is it stick-shifting??

I honestly do not know as they really did not go into detail and it makes no sense that they made it a manual for being an EV. Weird for sure.

[G. David Felt]

Per the latest write up, seems CASE is moving their Back Hoes to be available in Electric version as it would save 90% of maintenance cost to cities like New York. Time to R.I.P. Diesel!

Charged EVs | CASE’s electric backhoe loaders could save New York utilities 90% in maintenance costs - Charged EVs

 

[balthazar]

12 minutes ago, David said:

it would save 90% of maintenance cost

"They said without evidence". ?

I worked in heavy equipment for 7 years (Ford/New Holland, Hitachi, Komatsu, Catepillar, Case); the engines are like 5% of the maintenance required- there's dozens of other areas that require attention, but the engines aren't it; HE diesels run forever. Substituting a BE motor for a HE diesel isn't going to save you 10% in maintenance.

There's a very tangible reason these claims are pushed so hard; not that they're backed by empirical real-world data, but that it's a distraction to the Uber-high sticker prices these vehicles almost always are.

Edited March 23, 2021 by balthazar

[G. David Felt]

15 minutes ago, balthazar said:

"They said without evidence". ?

I worked in heavy equipment for 7 years (Ford/New Holland, Hitachi, Komatsu, Catepillar, Case); the engines are like 5% of the maintenance required- there's dozens of other areas that require attention, but the engines aren't it; HE diesels run forever. Substituting a BE motor for a HE diesel isn't going to save you 10% in maintenance.

There's a very tangible reason these claims are pushed so hard; not that they're backed by empirical real-world data, but that it's a distraction to the Uber-high sticker prices these vehicles almost always are.

We will See, here is the actual press release from CASE.

The CASE 580 EV Delivers Ultimate Power and Sustainability

• Zero Emissions: Lower your carbon footprint and achieve incentives/greater consideration for new projects with electrified additions to your fleet.
• All the Performance: The battery separately powers the drivetrain and hydraulic motors, resulting in hydraulic breakout forces equal to diesel-powered machines and improved performance during simultaneous loader and drivetrain operation.
• Long-Lasting Power: The machine's lithium-ion battery provides enough power for the typical 8-hour work day.
• Lower Operating Costs: Save as much as 90 percent in annual vehicle, fuel and maintenance costs.
• Classic CASE Performance: The 580 EV retains the precision and efficiency of diesel-powered CASE backhoes with features such as ProControl, which allows for extremely precise boom movement and placement, as well as Comfort Steer, which significantly improves steering while working in tight quarters or in truck loading operations.

CASE 580 EV - The Industry's First Fully Electric Backhoe Loader | CASE Construction Equipment (casece.com)

I honestly cannot see how anyone would want the noise of a diesel backhoe in their neighborhood. Having Silence is way better even if the cost of maintenance is not what they say it is and case clearly says the 90% saving is maintenance, Fuel and annual vehicle costs.

Yes we still do not know what the cost is.

[balthazar]

The very tangible problem is that most HE works a job longer than one day... and usually there's no grid-supplied power. I don't recall us ever having an electricity hookup on all the jobs we worked during those 7 years. 
So while perhaps a BE Case backhoe can operate for 8 hrs, but then you'd have to load it up and truck it away at the end of every day, so you can charge it overnight 'back at the shop', then truck it back to the job again in the morning. Over & over & over & over again. This requires you to drive a HD truck hauling a trailer & the Case, rather than a regular truck everyday, burning far MORE fuel than just leaving a TD machine on the job site.

Whoops.

Edited March 23, 2021 by balthazar

[ykX]

6 hours ago, balthazar said:

So while perhaps a BE Case backhoe can operate for 8 hrs, but then you'd have to load it up and truck it away at the end of every day, so you can charge it overnight

You simply charge it overnight with diesel generators, problem solved!

[G. David Felt]

11 hours ago, balthazar said:

The very tangible problem is that most HE works a job longer than one day... and usually there's no grid-supplied power. I don't recall us ever having an electricity hookup on all the jobs we worked during those 7 years. 
So while perhaps a BE Case backhoe can operate for 8 hrs, but then you'd have to load it up and truck it away at the end of every day, so you can charge it overnight 'back at the shop', then truck it back to the job again in the morning. Over & over & over & over again. This requires you to drive a HD truck hauling a trailer & the Case, rather than a regular truck everyday, burning far MORE fuel than just leaving a TD machine on the job site.

Whoops.

Plenty of Portable generators yes both smelly Diesel and regular gas and now more and more I see portable electric cell generators to bring power to the job site. 

So I do not see you having to load up the BackHoe and take it back n forth to the shop for charging. 

On top of this, I also see that just like the companies that supply fuel and lubricants to the job sites that come very early in the morning or late at night to top all the trucks / tractors off, you also have them bringing charges to replenish electric based tractors / trucks.

As is evident in all the services and portable options out now.

Mobile EV Charging Service for Rentals, Events & More | EV Safe Charge

Portable Electric - Clean, portable power stations | Electric Generators (portable-electric.com)

Charged EVs | Sparkcharge launches a portable and scalable DC fast charging unit - Charged EVs

Blink Introduces Portable, Mobile EV Charger for Roadside Use (caranddriver.com)

AAA Introduces Roadside Emergency Charging for Electric Cars | PluginCars.com

This is just a fraction of what I found and there are plenty of options for companies like the gas company above that can have their own portable recharger to insure the tractor on site has plenty of charge for the day.

I see your response as another one trying to say electrics cannot do the job of toxic diesel when they are proven they can and with no noise. 

The future is quiet and it is electric. Welcome to the 21st Century.

[G. David Felt]

Lightning Motors out of Loveland Colorado has had some major announcements this week.

First off, the latest is that  Proterra the maker of all things Commercial Transit buses is going to provide Lighting with battery packs for their wide range of EVs. Commercial Cargo Delivery Vans which are Ford vans with electric powertrains, small and medium passenger vans as well as electric trucks and city buses that are repowered with Lighting powertrain and Proterra battery packs.

Proterra battery technology to power Lightning eMotors Electric Transit commercial van - Lightning eMotors

Lighting has also announced their Generation 4 of electric Transit Class 3 vans with 250 miles of range with a 105 kWh battery pack. These come in the following configurations of Passenger Van, Cargo Van, School Bus, Ambulance and RV configurations. Shipments start in the 2nd quarter of 2021.

New Generation 4 Lightning Electric Transit Class 3 Van Introduced by Lightning eMotors - Lightning eMotors

Porterville California has purchased 12 of the passenger electric vans to be used for curb to curb service by it's residents as a city ride-hailing service with a cost of $3 per person.

These 12 passanger vans are ADA compliant with Support Wheel-Chair Lifts and will allow the city to on average respond within 15 minutes to requests from the senior residents. These vans will replace city Transit buses on low ridership routes allowing the residents a better experience with on demand  curb to curb service over a traditional large size commercial bus.

California’s City of Porterville Deploys 12 All-Electric Micro-transit Vans from Colorado’s Lightning eMotors - Lightning eMotors

More details on all options of EV auto's available for purchase as well as news releases about the company and technology they use can be found here: Electric Fleet Vehicles and Charging Systems | Lightning eMotors

[ccap41]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

The very tangible problem is that most HE works a job longer than one day... and usually there's no grid-supplied power. I don't recall us ever having an electricity hookup on all the jobs we worked during those 7 years. 
So while perhaps a BE Case backhoe can operate for 8 hrs, but then you'd have to load it up and truck it away at the end of every day, so you can charge it overnight 'back at the shop', then truck it back to the job again in the morning. Over & over & over & over again. This requires you to drive a HD truck hauling a trailer & the Case, rather than a regular truck everyday, burning far MORE fuel than just leaving a TD machine on the job site.

Whoops.

This was my first question, where are they recharging these things at? 

2 hours ago, David said:

Plenty of Portable generators yes both smelly Diesel and regular gas and now more and more I see portable electric cell generators to bring power to the job site. 

So I do not see you having to load up the BackHoe and take it back n forth to the shop for charging. 

On top of this, I also see that just like the companies that supply fuel and lubricants to the job sites that come very early in the morning or late at night to top all the trucks / tractors off, you also have them bringing charges to replenish electric based tractors / trucks.

As is evident in all the services and portable options out now.

Mobile EV Charging Service for Rentals, Events & More | EV Safe Charge

Portable Electric - Clean, portable power stations | Electric Generators (portable-electric.com)

Charged EVs | Sparkcharge launches a portable and scalable DC fast charging unit - Charged EVs

Blink Introduces Portable, Mobile EV Charger for Roadside Use (caranddriver.com)

AAA Introduces Roadside Emergency Charging for Electric Cars | PluginCars.com

This is just a fraction of what I found and there are plenty of options for companies like the gas company above that can have their own portable recharger to insure the tractor on site has plenty of charge for the day.

I see your response as another one trying to say electrics cannot do the job of toxic diesel when they are proven they can and with no noise. 

The future is quiet and it is electric. Welcome to the 21st Century.

Oh that's not more complicated than just filling tanks with diesel. 

What's the actual benefit here? Emissions? That's literally the only benefit because the rest is way more inconvenient to the end user. 

[balthazar]

• Portable ‘recharger’ services don’t always show up and can’t possibly hit all sites in 1 area first thing. A down machine is money lost. 
I guess these are the same billed service companies that are going to traverse the inner urban areas where folk park on the street, charging their cars every morning? ?

• David, you’re the only person I’ve ever heard with apparently super-sensitive hearing, that’s worried about a diesel engine’s noise. They’re not at all unpleasant in volume.

• I see your response as someone who believes that electricity is a magical cure-all that has no downsides and can & will service everyone seamlessly, and wxplains away every contrary scenario with zero concerns for the associated costs. Good luck with that utopian fantasy future! ?

Edited March 23, 2021 by balthazar

[Robert Hall]

17 hours ago, David said:

I honestly do not know as they really did not go into detail and it makes no sense that they made it a manual for being an EV. Weird for sure.

different gear ratios for low speed off-roading?   

21 minutes ago, balthazar said:

• David, you’re the only person I’ve ever heard with apparently super-sensitive hearing, that’s worried about a diesel engine’s noise. They’re not at all unpleasant in volume. 

Depends on the reality context, diesels can be quite loud and unpleasant if one is a pedestrian and has to hear them passing on streets.   In the past I've found myself walking in cities and heard diesels.   And certainly driving w/ the windows down and getting passed by some yahoo in a diesel monster truck or a semi accelerating the noise is quite unpleasant.  Noise pollution... 

[balthazar]

We were talking about construction equipment. But modern factory-spec diesels are amazingly quiet; you almost can’t tell the GM 3.0L TD is one standing next to it.

Don’t worry; we’ve seen the outfits producing IC digital tracks for BE cars so they sound powerful; as many ‘loud diesels’ as there are now; some day there may be as many loud electrics. ?

[G. David Felt]

48 minutes ago, balthazar said:

• Portable ‘recharger’ services don’t always show up and can’t possibly hit all sites in 1 area first thing. A down machine is money lost. 
I guess these are the same billed service companies that are going to traverse the inner urban areas where folk park on the street, charging their cars every morning? ?

• David, you’re the only person I’ve ever heard with apparently super-sensitive hearing, that’s worried about a diesel engine’s noise. They’re not at all unpleasant in volume.

• I see your response as someone who believes that electricity is a magical cure-all that has no downsides and can & will service everyone seamlessly, and wxplains away every contrary scenario with zero concerns for the associated costs. Good luck with that utopian fantasy future! ?

Electric is not the cure all for everything, but it does offer an amazing change in society with no noise and no smell and with proper planning you can have them recharged and ready to go in the morning.

Flip it this way, the guy that is supposed to show up to refuel your diesel tractor, did not refuel his own truck in the evening, gets up to do his run and has to stop to fuel up, but the gas stations are all closed since the ones by him are not open 24/7. He now sits on the side of the road awaiting someone to bring him fuel and so he misses getting to his lot to fill up all the tanks and get out to the site to refuel your tractor and you now have an empty fuel tank on the job and unable to work.

This goes both ways.

7 minutes ago, balthazar said:

We were talking about construction equipment. But modern factory-spec diesels are amazingly quiet; you almost can’t tell the GM 3.0L TD is one standing next to it.

Don’t worry; we’ve seen the outfits producing IC digital tracks for BE cars so they sound powerful; as many ‘loud diesels’ as there are now; some day there may be as many loud electrics. ?

While yes a modern pickup truck might be much quieter than they used to be with GM being the quietest, Ford and RAM are still super noisy from an engine stand point and all still stink so unless your auto has inside cabin air filters you still get the stench of diesel and even worse when an older truck goes by blowing out the toxic black smoke.

Like you said, they all have their place in work and society, but that does not mean we cannot keep working to make them better and remove the toxic stench, noise pollution and have a cleaner quieter work area.

If Diesel is the perfect solution, then why does John Deer, Kubota, Nortac, EGO and so many companies build residential to small business tractors?

If Diesel is the perfect solution, then why does Caterpillar, Komatsu, John Deer, Bobcat, Cummins all are now starting to make electric bulldozers and excavators?

Right now Hybrids are starting to out sell traditional diesel as you have a generator that is much quieter with a pure electric power train doing superior work.

 

[G. David Felt]

 

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, David said:

Flip it this way, the guy that is supposed to show up to refuel your diesel tractor, did not refuel his own truck in the evening, gets up to do his run and has to stop to fuel up, but the gas stations are all closed since the ones by him are not open 24/7. He now sits on the side of the road awaiting someone to bring him fuel and so he misses getting to his lot to fill up all the tanks and get out to the site to refuel your tractor and you now have an empty fuel tank on the job and unable to work.

We never had a hired fueling service, ever. [Some folk might say a refueler/recharger with 'market adjusted' energy costs is an "idiot" situation, automatically not considered. I assume.]

And we never hauled equipment to the shop to fuel them.

Can you imagine any other scenario?

1 hour ago, David said:

While yes a modern pickup truck might be much quieter than they used to be

There is no "might" about, not remotely. Even a few generations ago of the 6.6L Duramax were surprisingly quiet.
Not that more than a handful of people really care...

2 hours ago, David said:

a pure electric power train doing superior work.

What's "superior" about the work itself performed??

Funny; Case stated their BE machine does work "equal" to diesel variants.

[balthazar]

Oh, and the Cat 323F Z-line you linked to above costs TRIPLE what the diesel variant does : $680,000.

I know that matters not at all to you, but it's a deal breaker for small businesses, and just puts more market share control into big business conglomerates, reducing competition and pricing control. But hey; what's a few tens of thousands of small companies & their employees put out of business, right? After all, "they can always retrain for another industry".

[oldshurst442]

I wish I had more info on this, but it seems that Escalade and Escalade ESV will be offered in both V8 and Battery Electric in 2024.  Ultium battery operated. 

 

[balthazar]

^  ^  ^
India Jag I-Pace : $147,000
India Tesla Model 3 : $68,000

75% of cars sold in India : Under $10,000.

EV fans : "Electrics will be at 100% in India in 14 more years!!"

? ? ? ? ? 

[oldshurst442]

I didnt listen to the other reports. I was just interested in the Cadillac news.  

If that is what was said,  Ill join you with the hysterical laughter

[balthazar]

I briefly poked around to try & find Kona EV vs. IC sales numbers, but came up empty.
That, and a possible Escalade scenario, would be very telling case studies for the take rate of a BE vs. IC.
Someone find the Kona numbers...

[riviera74]

2 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

I wish I had more info on this, but it seems that Escalade and Escalade ESV will be offered in both V8 and Battery Electric in 2024.  Ultium battery operated. 

 

They should extend that past 2024 since there is no telling whether anyone will buy Escalade EVs in large enough numbers to cancel the ICE V8 version.  Also: ditch AFM.

[oldshurst442]

I dont think Cadillac will cease producing V8 'Slades that early in the decade despite Cadillac's determined EV destiny.  

 

[surreal1272]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

We never had a hired fueling service, ever. [Some folk might say a refueler/recharger with 'market adjusted' energy costs is an "idiot" situation, automatically not considered. I assume.]

And we never hauled equipment to the shop to fuel them.

Can you imagine any other scenario?

There is no "might" about, not remotely. Even a few generations ago of the 6.6L Duramax were surprisingly quiet.
Not that more than a handful of people really care...

What's "superior" about the work itself performed??

Funny; Case stated their BE machine does work "equal" to diesel variants.

It doesn’t matter that YOU never had to use a feeling service but plenty of others have and still do and that was the point.

 

And I’m sorry but diesels, overall, are not quiet (and I worked at a Chevy dealership years ago and I will debate the quietness of that 6.6L Duramax which is still noisy IMO) and most will end up blowing a black cloud of death whenever they go. See that crap everyday in NC and saw it everywhere in Arizona. 

12 hours ago, balthazar said:

^  ^  ^
India Jag I-Pace : $147,000
India Tesla Model 3 : $68,000

75% of cars sold in India : Under $10,000.

EV fans : "Electrics will be at 100% in India in 14 more years!!"

? ? ? ? ? 

Cite your source about the 75%.

 

Also, go ahead and point out the two expensive imports selling there while ignoring native companies like Tata, which sells far cheaper cars overall (EVs included). Thats some SMK level cherry picking, honestly.

Edited March 24, 2021 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

It doesn’t matter that YOU never had to use a fueling service but plenty of others have and still do and that was the point.

Corrected the autocorrect lol.

[ykX]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

Also, go ahead and point out the two expensive imports selling there while ignoring native companies like Tata, which sells far cheaper cars overall (EVs included). Thats some SMK level cherry picking, honestly.

Highest selling car in India:

Maruti (Suzuki) have few similar models that sold 1.75 million cars in 2019.  The average price: $3k to $4k US dollars depending on the model.

Highest selling EV in India:

Tata Nexon EV - Starting price $19k US dollars

They sold few thousand cars so far in 2021

Sources:

• Top selling cars in India 2019 | Statista

Maruti Suzuki Alto 800 Price in India | Maruti Suzuki Alto 800 Reviews, Photos & Videos | India.com

Tata Nexon EV Becomes India’s Best-Selling Electric Car For 2020: Garners Over 63% Market Share (drivespark.com)

Good enough?

How about US market comparison:

Edited March 24, 2021 by ykX

[G. David Felt]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

Oh, and the Cat 323F Z-line you linked to above costs TRIPLE what the diesel variant does : $680,000.

I know that matters not at all to you, but it's a deal breaker for small businesses, and just puts more market share control into big business conglomerates, reducing competition and pricing control. But hey; what's a few tens of thousands of small companies & their employees put out of business, right? After all, "they can always retrain for another industry".

Like all new technology, the cost is higher at the beginning, but always goes down and we have both Hybrid and pure electric. Companies that want to continue and grow will have to adapt and change. Many cities around the world have announced a ban on diesel construction equipment.

Just like the NY gas company that had their first electric backhoe, there is always a starting point.

This is from 2019 when multiple cities from the Asian Rim and Europe announced bans on diesel construction equipment.

Electrified Construction Equipment | OEM Off-Highway

Yes there will be those here that call the west coast tree hugging crazy, but cities here have announced reviews for when to transition from diesel to electric construction equipment.

The EPA up to 2019 was in lock step with the European Union for emissions. Now Europe has a Tier 5 in place with a plan to eventually ban all diesel especially in construction. As such, the current plan is for allowing clean running Hybrid heavy construction equipment. The Industry sees a very real possible change to pure electric within 20 years. This means that by 2039 all diesel construction equipment will be dead for new as everything will be electric.

Electric Dreams: Will Heavy Construction Equipment Go All-Electric? (constructconnect.com)

In regards to onsite fueling, I have always seen from state, county and city governments to major and medium construction sites using on site refueling. Yes small business will probably not have a need for this since they usually trailer their construction gear there and back daily for some jobs.

Here is a company I see all the time around here fueling up work sites.

Site Fuel | National Fuel Delivery | Onsite Refueling

[G. David Felt]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

^  ^  ^
India Jag I-Pace : $147,000
India Tesla Model 3 : $68,000

75% of cars sold in India : Under $10,000.

EV fans : "Electrics will be at 100% in India in 14 more years!!"

? ? ? ? ? 

So India through 2020 is showing a 20% year over year increase in EV sales.

Interesting is that Tata like GM in China has the number 1 selling EV in India. This is the first year for EV sales in any volume, but with Government incentives EVs for those that buy auto's are starting. Bigger market is the EV mopeds as bikes outsell auto's in India. Indian EV Bike sales are up 20.9% year over year to 1.52 million EV Bikes sold in India.

Tata Nexon EV Becomes No 1 Selling Electric Car In India For 2020 (rushlane.com)

20 Best Electric Bikes & Scooters In India [2021] - A Comprehensive List (carbikeindia.com)

Electric Scooter & Bike Sales In India For FY 2020: Registers A 20.6% Growth With Low-Speed Scooters Accounting For 90% Of The Total Sales - DriveSpark News

[balthazar]

18 minutes ago, David said:

Like all new technology, the cost is higher at the beginning, but always goes down

Misinformation. Prius's price hasn't gone down. Model S's price hasn't gone down.
We have ONE example of a BE vehicle price going down in the U.S. - the Chevy Bolt.
 

20 minutes ago, David said:

Companies that want to continue and grow will have to adapt and change.

So tone deaf.

 

[balthazar]

12 minutes ago, David said:

India through 2020 is showing a 20% year over year increase in EV sales.

2020 vehicles sales in India (including 2- & 3-wheelers) was 26.3 million. EV market share with a 20% increase over 2019? One-half of 1%.

Banning IC by 2035? Ah to the Ha.

[G. David Felt]

15 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Misinformation. Prius's price hasn't gone down. Model S's price hasn't gone down.
We have ONE example of a BE vehicle price going down in the U.S. - the Chevy Bolt.
 

So tone deaf.

 

No Miss information. Costs have gone up, pay has gone up not in proportion to costs, but everything has gone up. GM like Ford has committed to doing there best to include everyone in moving to the EV generation.

Bolt has come down, but it will never be a $15K auto as costs no longer support auto's priced like that. Costs over all have gone up. Just look at wood at Home Depot. September of 2020 a 1/2" sheet of Plywood 4ftx8ft was $24.00 and Now it is double at $48.00. I get this is due to the crazy winter storm hitting the midwest/south with refineries being down.

I expect cost to come down some, but my gut tells me we will be looking at higher prices over all moving forward.

Not Tone Deaf, but history proven. We cannot live in the past, we can enjoy it for what it was, but society moves forward and those that fight change are left behind. Reality, welcome to the 21st century which will be much the same as the 20th century and 19th century and so on and so on. 

Change in society, technology and taxes are the only consistency that seems still move forward.

Enjoy your living in a single moment in time, I will embrace the change of global society and the movement forward that is beneficial for all humans.

[ykX]

26 minutes ago, David said:

Change in society, technology and taxes are the only consistency that seems still move forward.

Enjoy your living in a single moment in time, I will embrace the change of global society and the movement forward that is beneficial for all humans.

The economy moves humanity forward.  All we argue is that at the moment EVs, industrial or commercial are not making economical sense.  What made humanity move from horses to cars is not the fancy expensive early cars but cheap, accessible to majority of people Model T.

Also, while EVs are much more efficient than ICE cars, the battery technology and especially rare materials it requires makes the possibility of truly replacing on a large scale all ICE is a very questionable possibility at the moment.  When better battery technology will become COMMERCIALLY and widespread available it might drastically change things.  We are not there yet.

You can say all you want how much forward thinking man you are, but you not driving an EV vehicle yet.  Neither not ONE big supporters of EVs on this forum.

Edited March 24, 2021 by ykX

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, ykX said:

The economy moves humanity forward.  All we argue is that at the moment EVs, industrial or commercial are not making economical sense.  What made humanity move from horses to cars is not the fancy expensive early cars but cheap, accessible to majority of people Model T.

Also, while EVs are much more efficient than ICE cars, the battery technology and especially rare materials it requires makes the possibility of truly replacing on a large scale all ICE is a very questionable possibility at the moment.  When better battery technology will become COMMERCIALLY and widespread available it might drastically change things.  We are not there yet.

You can say all you want how much forward thinking man you are, but you not driving an EV vehicle yet.  Neither not ONE big supporters of EVs on this forum.

You are right I DO NOT have an EV YET. But then due to my size and the desires of the wife, no EV meets our needs yet. Hummer and Rivian will be the first, so who knows what the future will hold for us.  

Appreciate the discussion by you and @balthazar I love these civil discussions about an industry we all care about.

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, David said:

No Miss information.

It unquestionably is. You stated ‘costs always come down and BEV’s costs will come down’ with NO evidence or past history to support that (with one singular exception).

The ante’ for EVs are anywhere (on average) of 25% to 100% and much more, vs. IC variants; electric backhoes and electric school buses are triple the going cost... but you continually ignore that while spouting empty platitudes like ‘Oh, just move forward into the 21st century’, like everyone has the financial ability to pay double or triple what they can afford. 

Seems you have an obvious and chronic disconnect to reality of mainstream consumers. That’s fine, but you should probably recuse yourself from speaking to the median consumer scenario of the auto industry, because you seem to just not get it.

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, ykX said:

Highest selling car in India:

Maruti (Suzuki) have few similar models that sold 1.75 million cars in 2019.  The average price: $3k to $4k US dollars depending on the model.

Highest selling EV in India:

Tata Nexon EV - Starting price $19k US dollars

They sold few thousand cars so far in 2021

Sources:

• Top selling cars in India 2019 | Statista

Maruti Suzuki Alto 800 Price in India | Maruti Suzuki Alto 800 Reviews, Photos & Videos | India.com

Tata Nexon EV Becomes India’s Best-Selling Electric Car For 2020: Garners Over 63% Market Share (drivespark.com)

Good enough?

How about US market comparison:

Which proves my point that there cheaper EV options in India than the Tesla and Jaguar Balth cited. That was my point from the start.

[ykX]

Just now, surreal1272 said:

Which proves my point that there cheaper EV options in India than the Tesla and Jaguar Balth cited. That was my point from the start.

His point might be extreme, but he was right in the fact that majority of vehicles sold in India are well under $10k. Do you really think they will switch to EVs in major numbers when the cheapest EV is at least 3-4 times the cost?

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

Misinformation. Prius's price hasn't gone down. Model S's price hasn't gone down.
We have ONE example of a BE vehicle price going down in the U.S. - the Chevy Bolt.
 

So tone deaf.

 

And ICE powered vehicles have not gone down in price either despite more than 100 years on the market. 

[surreal1272]

1 minute ago, ykX said:

His point might be extreme, but he was right in the fact that majority of vehicles sold in India are well under $10k. Do you really think they will switch to EVs in major numbers when the cheapest EV is at least 3-4 times the cost?

Wasn’t debating that point but seeing as how that doesn’t take effect until 2030, who knows where overall prices will be there. Fun fact though, most of India’s best sellers are priced well north of $10K.

[G. David Felt]

32 minutes ago, ykX said:

His point might be extreme, but he was right in the fact that majority of vehicles sold in India are well under $10k. Do you really think they will switch to EVs in major numbers when the cheapest EV is at least 3-4 times the cost?

This is also a country where Bikes (mopeds to motorcycles) outsell auto's by millions. They are selling over a million EV Bikes a year as I posted earlier. The middle income class and up are buying auto's but the size of the country does not favor auto's over bikes in all forms. Having visited India plenty of times with a Team in Bangalore and Pune, I see bikes everywhere compared to auto's.

[ykX]

1 minute ago, David said:

This is also a country where Bikes (mopeds to motorcycles) outsell auto's by millions.

This is not because they PREFER bikes over cars or care much about environment.  This is because majority of people CAN'T AFFORD to buy a car and support the expenses.  Big differences between people buying electric bikes here and there.

26 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

Fun fact though, most of India’s best sellers are priced well north of $10K.

Just above in my comment I had a link where it says the majority of India best sellers are well below $10k.  Care to show the source of your information?

[G. David Felt]

41 minutes ago, ykX said:

His point might be extreme, but he was right in the fact that majority of vehicles sold in India are well under $10k. Do you really think they will switch to EVs in major numbers when the cheapest EV is at least 3-4 times the cost?

Putting this in numbers in a market that Bikes is the primary form of transportation and they sold 17,420,000 bikes in India with 1,520,000 sold were EV form, that is 8.7256% of sales were EV and they are averaging 20.9% sales gain of EV bikes over ICE. At this rate, yes by 2030 they can replace ICE bikes with EV bikes for sure.

Electric Scooter & Bike Sales In India For FY 2020: Registers A 20.6% Growth With Low-Speed Scooters Accounting For 90% Of The Total Sales - DriveSpark News

Auto's will be a bigger challenge as I posted above 156,000 EV auto's were sold in 2020 on sales of 2,770,000 auto sales or 5.631% of sales in 2020. If this stayed the same at 5% a year, yes over the next 9 years that would only be a 45% replacement and so a challenge, but I as the industry also expects as more auto EV options come on the market will see a bigger change over.

[G. David Felt]

6 minutes ago, ykX said:

This is not because they PREFER bikes over cars or care much about environment.  This is because majority of people CAN'T AFFORD to buy a car and support the expenses.  Big differences between people buying electric bikes here and there.

Just above in my comment I had a link where it says the majority of India best sellers are well below $10k.  Care to show the source of your information?

Actually as a person that has been in India many times, even among the wealthier families, bikes are preferred due to the terrible road system and lack of signals such that riding a bike is easier to get around than in an auto.

This is pretty much average traffic making a bike to get around a superior way to travel. 

[balthazar]

56 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

And ICE powered vehicles have not gone down in price either despite more than 100 years on the market. 

Except ~ 

1. No one is claiming/promising/having blind faith they will, and
2. IC vehicles are a fraction of the cost of an equivalent BE.

[balthazar]

20 minutes ago, David said:

156,000 EV auto's were sold in 2020 on sales of 2,770,000 auto sales or 5.631% of sales in 2020. If this stayed the same at 5% a year, yes over the next 9 years that would only be a 45% replacement and so a challenge

You misunderstood. The '20 number of 5.6% is market share.

The 20% year over year was a marketshare increase from about 4.7% to 5.6% (4.6 + 20% (0.94%) = 5.6%

Annual growth rate isn't 5.6%, it's 1%. At this same rate, market share of BEs in 9 years would be about 15%, not 45%.

[surreal1272]

21 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Except ~ 

1. No one is claiming/promising/having blind faith they will, and
2. IC vehicles are a fraction of the cost of an equivalent BE.

Really? I've heard promises of lower prices on cars for decades now but that has never actually happened. These were the opinions of folks that spoke of this long before the internet age. Corporate promises galore.

 

And "fraction" is a relevant term.

[ykX]

31 minutes ago, David said:

Actually as a person that has been in India many times, even among the wealthier families, bikes are preferred due to the terrible road system and lack of signals such that riding a bike is easier to get around than in an auto.

This is pretty much average traffic making a bike to get around a superior way to travel. 

Median income in India is $2120 a year.  Please, tell me more that they don't want to buy regular cars and simply prefer to buy bikes.

[surreal1272]

43 minutes ago, ykX said:

This is not because they PREFER bikes over cars or care much about environment.  This is because majority of people CAN'T AFFORD to buy a car and support the expenses.  Big differences between people buying electric bikes here and there.

Just above in my comment I had a link where it says the majority of India best sellers are well below $10k.  Care to show the source of your information?

No. On top of what David has said, population density has a lot to do with why folks before the smaller modes of transportation. Look at those pics that David posted for a prime example fo this.

 

And your source pulls up nothing (Statistica) because it wants me to pay to see pain old stats. Mine is based off of simple logic that while there are a fair number of models that START at under $10K, they quickly shoot north of that number with a few options and folks that are shelling out $10K for a car are probably going to be willing to pay for some options to suit them, just like here. Now, the question is how many of those models sold were the sub-$10K ones.

4 minutes ago, ykX said:

Median income in India is $2120 a year.  Please, tell me more that they don't want to buy regular cars and simply prefer to buy bikes.

The median income in the U.S. is $31K (just north of that) while the average car price is $37K yet cars sell like hotcakes here. What exactly is your point?

[ccap41]

55 minutes ago, David said:

Actually as a person that has been in India many times, even among the wealthier families, bikes are preferred due to the terrible road system and lack of signals such that riding a bike is easier to get around than in an auto.

This is pretty much average traffic making a bike to get around a superior way to travel. 

That's like showing a picture of Times Square and saying it's easier to get around on bikes in the USA. Not all of india is that packed. 

[ccap41]

Population density (number of persons per square kilometre area) in States/ Union territories in India

[ykX]

32 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

START at under $10K, they quickly shoot north of that number

You kidding, right?  The majority of vehicles sold is around $2k-4k.  It is nowhere close to over 10k.

34 minutes ago, surreal1272 said:

The median income in the U.S. is $31K (just north of that) while the average car price is $37K yet cars sell like hotcakes here. What exactly is your point?

Hmmm,

$31k vs $37k

$2k vs $19k cheapest EV

What is my point ?....