Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[G. David Felt]

2020 has seen one thing drop good and that is the price of battery packs per kWh. While the average EV saw the price drop to $137 per kWh per battery pack, EV buses which help mass transit saw the prices drop below $100 per kWh.

In 2012 the industry reporting was that we would be at $200 per kWh battery packs and that was gonna be a challenge, but the industry is bringing down costs faster and now with Solid State batteries going into production, low cost EVs are making sense to bring to market with many starting from $18,000 to $25,000 which should make adoption of an EV even faster and more common.

EV battery pack prices fell 13% in 2020, some are already below $100/kwh (greencarreports.com)

[G. David Felt]

ProTerra, one of the US biggest EV bus manufactures has brought online their LA battery production line next to their EV bus manufacturing line. As such adding more jobs locally. Here they will be building their 3 different battery packs that can be bought with their EV buses, the largest being a 675 kWh battery pack giving the Proterra 40FT EV Bus a 329 mile range before recharge.

Charged EVs | Proterra opens new EV battery production line in Los Angeles County - Charged EVs

Interesting fact, EV buses have one fleet that is adding it's 500th bus and that is Moscow Russia. Russia is on track to have a total of 2,600 EV buses running around Moscow by 2024 and yet admits that this will only make up 1/3rd of their city bus fleet. Yet that is 1/3 less diesel as Moscow never went to hybrids or CNG buses. Going from a full Diesel fleet to pure EV by 2030.

As of October 2020 London has the 2nd largest fleet with 300 EV buses running around, 259 in Paris, 200 in Berlin and 164 in Amsterdam.

Charged EVs | Europe’s largest electric bus fleet adds its 500th vehicle - Charged EVs

[G. David Felt]

Tesla announced today that they have made a change to a CCS adapter that will work with their existing cars proprietary connector. 2021 will start off as Tesla Model 3 and their Supercharging V3 in Europe will change to CCS standard. Asia also will get this adapter and Tesla will with new updated versions of their product lines move to a CCS interface starting with South Korea and China in 2021.

This will open up thousands more charging options to EV drivers across Europe and the Asian rim.

The big question is when will Tesla do this for North America?

Tesla announces new CCS charging adapter but North America launch still unclear - Electrek

[G. David Felt]

OUCH, Seems VW while talking big on EVs has failed to get their Dealer network in Germany alone trained on how to sell their EV and as such failing to move the ID.3 EV. The dealers point back to VW claiming it failed to give them enough notice, training and incentive to sell a low maintenance auto compared to an ICE auto.

VW has said they have spent 7 figures alone in Germany on training. Guess the question is who reviewed and said the training was proper for getting the dealerships to sell EVs? Someone failed.

Of the secret shopping, only 16% upon qualifying the potential buyer recommended the EV but 50% of the info they supplied was wrong. This low sale suggestion rate and high misinformation will hold VW back as it transitions to a total EV auto line.

Part of the problem seems to be that VW is shooting themselves in the foot as they offer traditional incentives for selling an ICE auto where the dealership gets a kickback once the auto is sold and yet none are give for selling an EV. Right there is reason enough for a dealership to ignore selling an EV as they make more money on an ICE. VW needs to change and put the EV's on the incentive list.

Study: German dealers refuse to sell ID.3 even as VW talks big on EVs - Electrek

Could Toyota be shooting itself by the bad mouthing of EVs over hydrogen and Hybrids by their CEO?

Seems Toyota's CEO is against Japans government putting in place a 2035 mandate of no new ICE auto sales in the country. Japan is focusing on going all EV new auto sales five years before China 2040 mandate. As such, Toyota according to various web sites seems to be bad mouthing EVs. The details seem to be best at Electrek so I posted the link below for you. 

I do wonder if Toyota could end up in the same position GM was a decade ago due to the resistance to embrace change.

Toyota CEO shows lack of vision, spreads EV misinformation, and spells the end for the automaker - Electrek

[A Horse With No Name]

58 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Walking is good

Walking is good... thinking of getting a motorcycle...love riding my cannondale and my mountain bike...love driving my pickup truck.

Bike... motorcycle...pickup all three can get me someplace scenic to hike.

[surreal1272]

1 hour ago, ocnblu said:

Surreal thinks walking's not good.  Hmmm...

Maybe because you weren’t really promoting walking as much as dismissing EVs, yet again. 
 

You are not that cerebral. Stop pretending you are. 

[ocnblu]

WALKING IS GOOD

[A Horse With No Name]

33 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

WALKING IS GOOD

I walk a lot of steps in a day...makes me feel good.

[riviera74]

2 hours ago, David said:

OUCH, Seems VW while talking big on EVs has failed to get their Dealer network in Germany alone trained on how to sell their EV and as such failing to move the ID.3 EV. The dealers point back to VW claiming it failed to give them enough notice, training and incentive to sell a low maintenance auto compared to an ICE auto.

VW has said they have spent 7 figures alone in Germany on training. Guess the question is who reviewed and said the training was proper for getting the dealerships to sell EVs? Someone failed.

Of the secret shopping, only 16% upon qualifying the potential buyer recommended the EV but 50% of the info they supplied was wrong. This low sale suggestion rate and high misinformation will hold VW back as it transitions to a total EV auto line.

Part of the problem seems to be that VW is shooting themselves in the foot as they offer traditional incentives for selling an ICE auto where the dealership gets a kickback once the auto is sold and yet none are give for selling an EV. Right there is reason enough for a dealership to ignore selling an EV as they make more money on an ICE. VW needs to change and put the EV's on the incentive list.

Study: German dealers refuse to sell ID.3 even as VW talks big on EVs - Electrek

Could Toyota be shooting itself by the bad mouthing of EVs over hydrogen and Hybrids by their CEO?

Seems Toyota's CEO is against Japans government putting in place a 2035 mandate of no new ICE auto sales in the country. Japan is focusing on going all EV new auto sales five years before China 2040 mandate. As such, Toyota according to various web sites seems to be bad mouthing EVs. The details seem to be best at Electrek so I posted the link below for you. 

I do wonder if Toyota could end up in the same position GM was a decade ago due to the resistance to embrace change.

Toyota CEO shows lack of vision, spreads EV misinformation, and spells the end for the automaker - Electrek

Sounds like Toyota has been TOO successful in their hybrid technology to embrace EVs.  GM fell into that trap in 1968 or so, ignoring the threat posed by Honda and Toyota in the 1970s.  Then came emissions requirements and CAFE standards.  GM took a while to design cars to fully catch up, but GM was already losing market share for the rest of the 20th Century.  IF it wasn't for Hyundai/KIA, Toyota now would be where GM was fifty years ago, living on its past glories.  You cannot do that when the market is demanding something new, and to be done quickly.  In the long run, you have to replace your product with a better one; otherwise someone else will do it for you.

As for VW vs. the dealers, EV tech is new enough that dealers should NOT expect any incentives to subsidize the sale of those vehicles.  Unless VW simply cancels all incentives and goes fully EV.

[ocnblu]

6 hours ago, riviera74 said:

You cannot do that when the market is demanding something new, and to be done quickly.

Except... it is not "the market" (which SHOULD be the primary driver of ANY transition) that is DEMANDING this dubious push to EV.

[A Horse With No Name]

10 hours ago, riviera74 said:

Sounds like Toyota has been TOO successful in their hybrid technology to embrace EVs.  GM fell into that trap in 1968 or so, ignoring the threat posed by Honda and Toyota in the 1970s.  Then came emissions requirements and CAFE standards.  GM took a while to design cars to fully catch up, but GM was already losing market share for the rest of the 20th Century.  IF it wasn't for Hyundai/KIA, Toyota now would be where GM was fifty years ago, living on its past glories.  You cannot do that when the market is demanding something new, and to be done quickly.  In the long run, you have to replace your product with a better one; otherwise someone else will do it for you.

As for VW vs. the dealers, EV tech is new enough that dealers should NOT expect any incentives to subsidize the sale of those vehicles.  Unless VW simply cancels all incentives and goes fully EV.

Hyundai and Kia are the wave of the future. 

3 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Except... it is not "the market" (which SHOULD be the primary driver of ANY transition) that is DEMANDING this dubious push to EV.

We will see more of a push with light commercial vehicles I think....I beleive it is where this technology will make the most sense. 

And feel free to disagree with me....I am not emotionally dpendant on anyone agreeing with my opinion. Quite the opposite. 

[balthazar]

14 hours ago, David said:

2020 has seen one thing drop good and that is the price of battery packs per kWh. While the average EV saw the price drop to $137 per kWh per battery pack

Leaf was $29,995 in 2019, is $31,600 in 2021 ($1605 HIGHER).
Bolt was $36,620 in 2019, is $36,500 in 2021 ($120 lower).
Model 3 was $35,000 in 2019, is $37,990 in 2021 ($2990 HIGHER).

OEM costs are immaterial if they never get passed on to the consumer. Reducing prices is not in the OEM playbook. We're in an era where charging extra for PAINT is commonplace & SOP.

[surreal1272]

11 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Except... it is not "the market" (which SHOULD be the primary driver of ANY transition) that is DEMANDING this dubious push to EV.

Because I’m sure you’ve talked to everyone in this country to make such a determination. Tell us how you know better than GM marketing. Tell us how you know better than Ford marketing. Tell us how you better than ANY car manufacturer, for that matter. This how you can make your statement ring true as opposed to it sounding completely and utterly full of s***, like any other time you mention EVs.

[surreal1272]

7 hours ago, balthazar said:

Leaf was $29,995 in 2019, is $31,600 in 2021 ($1605 HIGHER).
Bolt was $36,620 in 2019, is $36,500 in 2021 ($120 lower).
Model 3 was $35,000 in 2019, is $37,990 in 2021 ($2990 HIGHER).

OEM costs are immaterial if they never get passed on to the consumer. Reducing prices is not in the OEM playbook. We're in an era where charging extra for PAINT is commonplace & SOP.

Go ahead and explain why ICE prices never go down while you’re at it, even though the tech is over a century old. The ones above are incremental with the Leaf being understandable since 2021 is NEW model with longer range and more options. 

[balthazar]

Where’s the news flashes that IC components are getting steadily cheaper & cheaper so they will one day will be price competitive with EVs?

Edited December 18, 2020 by balthazar

[balthazar]

If GM issues a press release that a 5.3L V8 now cost them $299 to build in it’s entirety, would anyone assume that a Silverado 5.3L would drop -say- $5000 in price? I know I wouldn’t.

OEM battery costs are immaterial to consumers because - like IC vehicles - prices don’t go down.

[ocnblu]

3 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Because I’m sure you’ve talked to everyone in this country to make such a determination. Tell us how you know better than GM marketing. Tell us how you know better than Ford marketing. Tell us how you better than ANY car manufacturer, for that matter. This how you can make your statement ring true as opposed to it sounding completely and utterly full of s***, like any other time you mention EVs.

How about this (you are STALE) LESS THAN 2% OF THE U.S. MARKET IS EV.  Not very "demanding", but then how would you begin to understand?

[G. David Felt]

11 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

How about this (you are STALE) LESS THAN 2% OF THE U.S. MARKET IS EV.  Not very "demanding", but then how would you begin to understand?

When the product is not available yet, it is understandable that people are not buying. America wants big trucks and SUVs. Once they are there in EV mode, you will see that more and more will buy just like me. I will be buying once I can compare and sit in a Rivian and Hummer. Both are what I want, Not a Tesla, but a full size EV.

[ocnblu]

Well there's one sold.

[balthazar]

There are about 38 plug-in or battery-electrics on the U.S. market currently.

It's not a secret how many people buy them. The market demand for THOSE models is well documented now, and frequently the 'Next New Thing' sells at higher numbers than in subsequent years. So... MAYBE the buyer pool for the models currently out is already close to it's maximum level.

[oldshurst442]

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by oldshurst442

[ocnblu]

13 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

better than GM marketing

Is this the same "GM Marketing" department that oversaw a market share drop from ~40% to ~18%?  *scoff*

[ykX]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665?mod=e2fb

 Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped.

Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said he feared government regulations would make cars a ‘flower on a high summit’—out of reach for the average person.

Edited December 19, 2020 by ykX

[surreal1272]

15 hours ago, balthazar said:

If GM issues a press release that a 5.3L V8 now cost them $299 to build in it’s entirety, would anyone assume that a Silverado 5.3L would drop -say- $5000 in price? I know I wouldn’t.

OEM battery costs are immaterial to consumers because - like IC vehicles - prices don’t go down.

Engines like the 5.3L and the tech behind them have dropped in price over the years while the Silverado they go in have not. That’s the point here.

12 hours ago, ocnblu said:

How about this (you are STALE) LESS THAN 2% OF THE U.S. MARKET IS EV.  Not very "demanding", but then how would you begin to understand?

How about you stop deflecting and answer my first set questions there? Of course, maybe its you that doesn’t understand but thats not new, since you have never offered anything of value here.

12 hours ago, David said:

When the product is not available yet, it is understandable that people are not buying. America wants big trucks and SUVs. Once they are there in EV mode, you will see that more and more will buy just like me. I will be buying once I can compare and sit in a Rivian and Hummer. Both are what I want, Not a Tesla, but a full size EV.

You know what? F him. No matter what answer to you give, no matter the facts that contradict his sorry excuses, he just sticks his fingers in his ears screaming “NO NO NO NO! EVS BAD! NO NO NO NO!” Because he’s so “cerebral”. Quite honestly, he will never understand it because I’m convinced that an EV harmed him in some way. Maybe he can show us on a doll one day.

Edited December 19, 2020 by surreal1272

[surreal1272]

2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Is this the same "GM Marketing" department that oversaw a market share drop from ~40% to ~18%?  *scoff*

GM wasn’t the only one mentioned genius and you talk a big game on GM for someone who bought one of their trucks.

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Is this the same "GM Marketing" department that oversaw a market share drop from ~40% to ~18%?  *scoff*

While you talk about the 2% EV market share here and wondering why companies are investing heavily, you ignore that other part of market share involving the REST OF THE WORLD. Again, tell us how you think you know more than EVERY other auto manufacturer out there without your normal level of trolling and deflection. Don’t worry. I’ll wait.

 

 

[A Horse With No Name]

2 hours ago, ykX said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/toyotas-chief-says-electric-vehicles-are-overhyped-11608196665?mod=e2fb

 Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped.

Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people.

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said he feared government regulations would make cars a ‘flower on a high summit’—out of reach for the average person.

He is an enthusiast.

[balthazar]

3 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Engines like the 5.3L and the tech behind them have dropped in price over the years while the Silverado they go in have not. That’s the point here.

I certainly would love to see some figures on that. Hard to believe an iron block, solid cam 270HP version (LM7) was more expensive to build than an all aluminum, phased cam, drive-by-wired, cylinder-deactivating 355HP variant.

[G. David Felt]

14 hours ago, balthazar said:

There are about 38 plug-in or battery-electrics on the U.S. market currently.

It's not a secret how many people buy them. The market demand for THOSE models is well documented now, and frequently the 'Next New Thing' sells at higher numbers than in subsequent years. So... MAYBE the buyer pool for the models currently out is already close to it's maximum level.

I would agree with you that the early models out that are pretty much all subcompact and expensive are maxing out in the market. I truly believe once midsize / full size EVs are out especially as trucks / SUVs we will see sales take off especially as the prices come into line with the products. ICE / EV Full size trucks priced the same I expect many to move over to EVs, charge from home and be glad to not have to deal with various fluid / maintenance of ICE auto's.

[balthazar]

I've made the point repeatedly here; EV prices have not moved 1 iota toward being in line with IC counterparts. One can say 'it's coming', but there's no evidence of that at all. "Priced the same" is, to date, an empty prediction.

Kona EV is $17,000 more than the gas variant. Offer to pay people $17,000 to get their oil changed twice/yr. and I think you'll find a LOT of takers. Most people will drive out of their way to save .10 cents/gal on a 10-gal tank. And we saw the higher EV maintenance in the police car study.

But I predict that the take rate for truck consumers is going to be disappointingly low; lower than for sedans and CUVs.

[G. David Felt]

7 minutes ago, balthazar said:

I've made the point repeatedly here; EV prices have not moved 1 iota toward being in line with IC counterparts. One can say 'it's coming', but there's no evidence of that at all. "Priced the same" is, to date, an empty prediction.

Kona EV is $17,000 more than the gas variant. Offer to pay people $17,000 to get their oil changed twice/yr. and I think you'll find a LOT of takers. Most people will drive out of their way to save .10 cents/gal on a 10-gal tank. And we saw the higher EV maintenance in the police car study.

But I predict that the take rate for truck consumers is going to be disappointingly low; lower than for sedans and CUVs.

I know you have stated that EV prices have not moved, but then ICE technology has also just like EVs always started with the best at the top which is what we are seeing with EVs.  This is on par with recovery of extensive R&D costs.

We have Hyundai, Kia, GM, Ford all saying that EVs need to also have entry and mid range cost auto's. GM has been the only one to publish a road map of auto's coming by 2025 and here we see that Chevrolet will have both entry level to truck level EV's and GM has stated they will be ICE comparable in price. 

Time will tell, I see that Nissan Leaf EVs are following normal used car pricing and that gives great inexpensive auto's for teens and college students as well as low income people to afford. Yet their short range battery packs might also have something to do with the pricing.

Chevrolet Bolt with double the operational range seem to be holding a better than average resale price.

I think a more traditional look that the Next generation Bolt and Bolt EUV will have will make it more palatable to many more buyers. Here Chevrolet will have their SubCompact Bolt and the Compact Bolt EUV. Being on the next generation platform that will also be used by the other brands all the way up to Cadillac, I wonder what the new price points will be. 

If they stay the same as you have stated, then I do think it will be hard for more conquest sales. Yet if they do the right thing in moving each auto into the proper price tier for the size, I think conquest sales will follow.

[oldshurst442]

Sandy Munro in this video has a lot of interesting views on the future of EVs, batteries (solid state and how they compare to Tesla's batteries and how Tesla's batteries and solid state will change the course of EVs) 

40 minute video, but well worth it for a perspective on how the automotive world is on the cusp of a huge change.

Just an opinion Munro's is...   But its a perspective that one SHOULD DEFINITELY hear and take in...

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by oldshurst442

[G. David Felt]

Interesting survey showing far more interest in EVs than most are aware of and yet both pricing and recharging is the top two concerns.

New Consumer Reports survey finds majority of drivers are interested in electric vehicles

A Major PLUS for Green Energy as the largest Coal Power Generation plant and Smoke Stakes are destroyed.

Seems Arizona has chosen to be carbon neutral if not free by 2050 using only Green Energy to run the state.

[Update] The West’s largest coal plant’s smokestacks will be destroyed Friday (electrek.co)

[ocnblu]

11 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Don’t worry. I’ll wait.

Last man out, shut off the lights.

[ocnblu]

12 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

Maybe he can show us on a doll one day.

Ew no way I'm touching your inflatable date, COVID or no COVID.

[surreal1272]

19 hours ago, balthazar said:

I certainly would love to see some figures on that. Hard to believe an iron block, solid cam 270HP version (LM7) was more expensive to build than an all aluminum, phased cam, drive-by-wired, cylinder-deactivating 355HP variant.

Maybe not the best example but the basic tech for ICE has not changed in the last century yet not one savings passed onto the consumer. Maybe, like EVs, it’s not just about the source of propulsion as far as price increases go. That’s the ultimate point here. 

10 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Ew no way I'm touching your inflatable date, COVID or no COVID.

So nothing of value to add to the discussion. No answers to my original questions. Just more trolling, more deflection, more BS. No wonder you worship the outgoing administration. 
 

You are not cerebral. You are a joke at this point and just about everyone here knows it. 

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, surreal1272 said:

but the basic tech for ICE has not changed in the last century yet not one savings passed onto the consumer. Maybe, like EVs, it’s not just about the source of propulsion as far as price increases go. That’s the ultimate point here. 

That’s a perfect example of an identical scenario. If IC tech “hasn’t changed in 100 years”, neither has a battery vehicle.
But my point was NOT that prices have increased for either, but specifically that numerous sources (and David) keep telling us battery costs are coming DOWN... but that has yet to transfer to the buyer, and BEVs are hugely more expensive than an IC equivalent.

[surreal1272]

5 minutes ago, balthazar said:

That’s a perfect example of an identical scenario. If IC tech “hasn’t changed in 100 years”, neither has a battery vehicle.
But my point was NOT that prices have increased for either, but specifically that numerous sources (and David) keep telling us battery costs are coming DOWN... but that has yet to transfer to the buyer, and BEVs are hugely more expensive than an IC equivalent.

Nothing happens overnight and its sounds like thats your core issue instead of understanding the fundamental reality of things time in a very competitive world. The current COVID/political environment does not help. It’s been really only in the last decade that the tech has even been allowed to exist in an ICE dominated world (forget the fact that auto companies AND the oil industry fought AGAINST battery tech for decades). Yes, David has said what he said but he also never gave a date for it. Again, a case of impatience for a tech you don’t really seem to care for in the first place but you have no personal use for it.

 

Oh and battery tech is changing, ie solid state tech which is far more than can be said for the last hundred years of the internal combustion engine and the power of gasoline. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

... and a C8 Corvette engine has certainly evolved from a 1920 Model T with 20 HP.

I've stated it before; I'm not against BEVs even tho one would not work for me and I'm not interested in the price tier they come at. They're not perfect (neither are ICVs), but they're 'real' cars now (vs, -say- a mid-70's CitiCar... or a Chinese Kandi)... but they're also not price-competitive 99% of the time. THAT'S the prime hurdle to displacing the established product : being affordable. Otherwise, wouldn't Rolls sell in the millions of units (NOT saying that price disparity is what's going on here).

Look, the hype on BEVs is relentless and almost always disjointed from reality. Tesla's stock price is a stellar example of that. In order to be remotely analytical and objective, we have to strip away that hype and focus on the facts. 'Buy one now because maybe in the future it'll be cheaper than a ICV that's not propped up with Gov't money and an indeterminate amount of gas not purchased' isn't being honest. It's not how consumers shop.

The best litmus test of BEVs is mainstream offerings against existing ICVs. The electric Silverado / F-150, for example. Despite my belief that truck buyers are going to be LESS interested in an EV pickup, if they come in within 10% of the price of a IC variant.... we'll truly see the market demand for BEVs. The hurdle to THAT scenario is; can OEMs make a profit on a BEV priced that close to the same ICV? Tesla isn't making a profit per vehicle yet...

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by balthazar

[surreal1272]

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

That’s a perfect example of an identical scenario. If IC tech “hasn’t changed in 100 years”, neither has a battery vehicle.
But my point was NOT that prices have increased for either, but specifically that numerous sources (and David) keep telling us battery costs are coming DOWN... but that has yet to transfer to the buyer, and BEVs are hugely more expensive than an IC equivalent.

It’s still an engine that runs on gasoline and produces emissions. And after more than a century, why hasn’t there been any savings there because whether you want to agree with it or not, there is a BIG difference in where battery tech has been the last twenty years and where ICE has been for the last hundred. You are simply not holding ICE to the same standard that you are applying to EVs. And again, that cost savings may be further down the road than David is implying because, as I have already stated, he never gave a date or event for this to happen. Don’t know why this had to be repeated but apparently I didn’t make it clear enough the first time. 
 

And regarding your Kona comparison, it starts at $20,400 for a base model while the better equipped electric gets a $7500 fed credit taking it down to $30K. I’m just skipping the part where a loaded ICE Kona is far north of $30K. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by surreal1272

[ocnblu]

5 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

So nothing of value to add to the discussion.

You think showing the group, on a doll for Christ's sake, where the evil EV touched me is "adding value" to the discussion?  You really are delusional.

 

The myriad issues with EV v. ICE have been beat to death, why should I repeat repeat repeat them?  With a choice so clear, the discussion should be over, yet here we are, some still advocating, against all odds, FOR EV.  It's mystifying.  So I come in here to be entertained.

[surreal1272]

50 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

You think showing the group, on a doll for Christ's sake, where the evil EV touched me is "adding value" to the discussion?  You really are delusional.

 

The myriad issues with EV v. ICE have been beat to death, why should I repeat repeat repeat them?  With a choice so clear, the discussion should be over, yet here we are, some still advocating, against all odds, FOR EV.  It's mystifying.  So I come in here to be entertained.

BS. I made my obvious joke while actually discussing the subject at hand, unlike yourself. You never, NOT ONCE, answered my original question (which was for you to tell us how you think you know the potential EV market better than EVERY auto company out there) which is what created the joke in the first place. Why? Because all you do is troll. Now, having said that, here's the kicker (and evidence you provide yourself). If the subject has been beaten to death then why the hell do you keep coming back to it and contribute nothing? Again, because you're trolling (or what you call "entertaining"). Pathetic considering you are the one who requested this subject matter take place here instead of Random Thoughts, all simply because you were tired of seeing it (and apparently because you have never heard of the "ignore" button"). You want others to follow the rules while you flaunt and ignore them, again, just like the outgoing president I'm sure you voted for). That is what has been "beat to death". How about holding yourself to the same standard that you ask of everyone else here? Can you actually do that? Somehow, I sincerely doubt it.

 

Now, lets see which sentence you "cherry pick" in your reply while ignoring literally everything else that has been said. Again, not following rules you set for everyone else.

Edited December 20, 2020 by surreal1272

[balthazar]

2 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

It’s still an engine that runs on gasoline and produces emissions.

And BEVs are still motors that run off of storage batteries than get recharged. I thought we were going deeper than the core tenant of the 2 motive powers.

1912 electric truck with hub motors :

[G. David Felt]

7 hours ago, balthazar said:

That’s a perfect example of an identical scenario. If IC tech “hasn’t changed in 100 years”, neither has a battery vehicle.
But my point was NOT that prices have increased for either, but specifically that numerous sources (and David) keep telling us battery costs are coming DOWN... but that has yet to transfer to the buyer, and BEVs are hugely more expensive than an IC equivalent.

While this year we saw price increases on EVs, Pandemic affect I think might be one reason, we have seen as battery prices have dropped, range has increased. So while prices have not come down, the range has increased which is a similar affect. Keep the price static and increase what you get in this case how long you can drive on a single charge.

Hopefully with the higher density Solid State batteries which in turn means smaller over all battery pack we can also see a lower cost come to EVs and more than anything, entry level and mid level competitive EV products.

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

And BEVs are still motors that run off of storage batteries than get recharged. I thought we were going deeper than the core tenant of the 2 motive powers.

1912 electric truck with hub motors :

Yet todays Electric motors and batteries are far more advanced than they were in 1912. Technology progressing beyond what we had back then.

With reports showing that instead of 2025 we hit the $100 per kWh battery pack wholesale pricing this year is exciting as I truly believe that between now and 2025 as we see a large assortment of Subcompact to full size EVs hit the market at a wide range of price points we will see a move to EVs over ICE and then as I do agree with you, it will take a few decades to fully replace ICE.

Long term, I believe that Green (solar, wind, hydro, ocean) power will allow even in remote places of Africa and central to south america where transporting fuel has been the norm, it will be replaced with cleaner easier to generate power that can benefit both quality of life living in a home to modern transportation.

Here is one of the latest research reports and I think it makes valid real reasons why in the short term petro is and will remain King for Now, but a Mixed Energy Future is what the next decade will be and eventually a Green energy future.

2030 is a valid tipping point of moving from petro to green energy production in the US as well as around the globe.

Renewable Energy vs. Fossil Fuels for Electricity: Facts and Forecasts - Beachapedia

 

[G. David Felt]

Very interesting read on Future energy Battery and Storage Tech.

Energy's Future - Battery and Storage Technologies (forbes.com)

While this  report is from Aug 2019, they do talk about the challenges but the aggressive change in technology that will change our life style over the next Decade.

Quote:

It’s not like we’ve been idle. We just haven’t been wildly successful. Battery technologies do keep getting better. Recently, Jack Goodenough, the inventor of the Li-ion battery, came out with a new fast-charging battery technology using that uses a glass electrode instead of a liquid one, sodium instead of lithium, and may have three times as much energy density as lithium-ion batteries.

The exciting part of the rapidly changing battery world is the move to not only solid state batteries but WattJoule batteries that will benefit the Commercial market more so than the EV or Residential market.

Quote:

Li-ion batteries have too short an operating life and have issues such as rapid heat generation. For the near-future, they will dominate the small-volume niche such as personal devices and electric vehicles, but for the utility-scale commercial battery market, we need bigger systems that last longer.

The latest technology to emerge is the vanadium redox battery, also known as the vanadium-flow battery. And the best one seems to be from WattJoule, especially because their cost is so much lower than other V-flow batteries.

V-flow batteries are fully containerized, nonflammable, compact, reusable over semi-infinite cycles, discharge 100% of the stored energy and do not degrade for more than 20 years. The Earth’s crust has much more vanadium than lithium, and we produce twice as much V as Li each year.

While this is all valid science from the University level, commercial production is coming and I believe we will see a rapid change from the current Lithium Ion battery to Solid State to WattJoule which is where I can easily see Semi truck long haul to residential EVs having very long range use.

[balthazar]

35 minutes ago, David said:

I do agree with you, it will take a few decades to fully replace ICE

Wow! Welcome to the Matrix, David!

[oldshurst442]

Talking about Ford Model Ts and Chevrolet Corvettes regarding high priced, low volume  EVs is wrong in my opinion. 

A Chevrolet Corvette is as far from a comparison to a Ferrari F8 Tributo as a Ford Model T is to a Cadillac of the day as a Chevrolet Bolt is to a...Chevrolet Spark. 

Why?

Simple.

A Ford Model T and a Chevrolet Corvette were (and in the case of the Corvette still is) cars (and brands)  that were and are INTIALLY conceived to be mass produced with PRICE TAGS to be LOW for the MASSES as their PRIMARY OBJECTIVE.

Henry Ford perfected the production line so he could get the cost/unit as low as he could so he could sell his cars as low as possible so the average consumer could buy one. 

Chevrolet uses a different approach for the Corvette, but the cost engineering behind the Corvette is to keep engineering and production costs on the low, so the Corvette could enjoy a relative low price. 

 Ferrari and Cadillac and even the Chevrolet Bolt that I mentioned before do NOT have that business plan in place.  Could anyone guess as to why that is?    I dont think we have to discuss as to why that is. I think we all know why...   The Chevrolet Bolt does have an asterisk behind to what I just mentioned.   The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y fall into the same category as the Chevrolet Bolt.   And I will explain that further...

The CURRENT EVs that are on sale, do NOT enjoy ANY kind of business plan that reduces cost/unit to be passed on the consumer.  There are NO smart/clever  engineering choices (like Henry Ford's perfected production line as that clever engineering choice for the Model T as an example) that are implemented.  Even at FoMoCo with the Mach E.   

It seems that the ONLY business plan available as of now is just to offer EVs at a high price and the early adapters pay the full brunt of EV experimental technologies and engineering and just let time go by for the prices to go down...  This is where the Model 3 and Y, Ford Mach E and Chevrolet Bolt come in.  And then economies of scale might kick in to save the consumer of few bucks here and there.

Yes, its true, that solid state batteries will reduce the cost of batteries...but what good will that do for an EV price tag IF there are NO BUSINESS PLANS ALLOWING FOR EVs to be AFFORDABLE for EVERYONE?

A MAINSTREAM BUSINESS PLAN and ENGINEERING HAS TO BE INVENTED and IMPLEMENTED like it has for a Model T, for EVs to be TRULY affordable for the average consumer...   Straight out, full-on production for a Mach E for instance, will not cut it.  There has to be a planned, built-in, thought of production of an affordable EV on the level of a Model T for that to happen.

The Tesla Model 3 and Y dont have that. The Ford Mach E dont have that. The Chevrolet Bolt dont have that. The Rivians and Lucid Airs dont have that. The Porsche Taycans and Audi E-Trons dont have that.

Mind you, the high end jobs like a Porsche or Audi or Caddy are not where we start thinking about affordable transportation for the masses.

Even at Chevrolet for the time being.

There is some sort of plan over at GM with the platform sharing thing...  Yeah...like an ICE vehicle enjoys.  VW will be doing the same thing.  And THAT is where EVs WILL be coming affordable.  

Tesla having the Model 3 and Model Y on the same platform should also help Tesla in keeping their cars affordable.  But Tesla might not be interested in that market...  Tesla enjoys brand recognition as a top EV maker.  People buying Teslas dish out the money.  Maybe it be wise for Tesla NOT to delve into the affordable EV market...

Edited December 21, 2020 by oldshurst442

[ccap41]

22 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

And after more than a century, why hasn’t there been any savings there

There have been, engines have become waaaay more efficient so your savings is less fuel used. 

[oldshurst442]

1 hour ago, ccap41 said:

There have been, engines have become waaaay more efficient so your savings is less fuel used. 

More horsepower...at lesser prices.  What the American automobile and muscle cars are all about and what the spirit of the Chevrolet Corvette embody.  Sure.

But with the same token, and in essence ,  isnt what you just stated up above what  @David   is talking about when he is talking about EVs and EV batteries?

 

20 hours ago, David said:

Yet todays Electric motors and batteries are far more advanced than they were in 1912. Technology progressing beyond what we had back then.

With reports showing that instead of 2025 we hit the $100 per kWh battery pack wholesale pricing this year is exciting as I truly believe that between now and 2025 as we see a large assortment of Subcompact to full size EVs hit the market at a wide range of price points we will see a move to EVs over ICE and then as I do agree with you, it will take a few decades to fully replace ICE.

 

I wanna know why...whether we are discussing EVs and EV batteries versus the internal combustion engine or automobile reliability versus the various automotive companies across the planet, why cant we use the SAME barometers and assess the SAME way to all?

We keep our biases and ignore the flaws to what we want to like, yet we are harsh and unforgiven to what we dont like. 

Yes...its human nature to do that...

But its also in human nature to FINALLY come to a conclusion when ALL facts are presented to an EQUAL manner.  Well...humans that WANT to pursue progress that is...

I mean...we cant shyt on one idea/entity for having flaws yet embrace a different idea/entity with a different but an EQUAL amount of flaws...

Its a tireless game of tug of war.  And if we dont ACKNOWLEDGE the flaws of what we prefer, and if we dont ACKNOWLEDGE the merits of what we dont...then its just...POINTLESS. 

The internal combustion engine and ALL of its infrastructure  took DECADES...close to a CENTURY to be an almost perfect way of powering a horse carriage. Even the horse carriage itself took 2 bloody decades to become its own thing and become a...well...car.  

Here we are...we let our bias of NOT WANTING to accept a different power source for our beloved car that we cloud our minds with utter bullshyte trying to deny the eventual progress of the electric motor (which in itself has been improved IMMENSLY to what inventors did with them in the late 1700s and 1800s.  Let us not forget how far we have gone with batteries in the last 5 years never you mind about how far batteries have come since the last 100 years. 

What I find TRULY insulting, is that the American spirit of INVENTION over the last 100 years  (production lines, automobiles, airplanes, electric light bulbs, silicon valley motherboard microchips, etc has all but disappeared.  The pioneering and business savvy spirit has faded away.  And I am Canadian for phoques sake.

Making America Great again is just but a phoquing hoax the way some of us diss what could be a very defining moment in American business endeavors with the constant put downs of Tesla and the electric car...

Tesla, Rivian, Lucid. 

All AMERICAN.

I do NOT know where Rivian and Lucid stand on EV tech, but Tesla has WORLD BEATING tech and some shytty Americans dont even realize this.  Where is the T-Shirt ripping Hulk Hogan that Trump promised us?

I know...he is constantly whining about how not fair it is that  Canada steals milk and lumber from the US 

How Fakenews this and unfair that is while TESLA is the SINGLE most IMPORTANT AMERICAN being GREAT again...

TESLA is a SYMBOL that the WORLD recognizes as a technology maker needed to help save a sick planet. 

TESLA has got the TECHNOLOGY that the WORLD envies...

Yet...some Americans....are too stupid to see that...blinded by an overused version of the Red, White and Blue.  The irony of what I said, is that the tired and  overused symbol of America being Great again is THAT of a T-Shirt ripping Hulk Hogan...

rant over.

I guess Covid lockdown has got my nerves up in arms again...

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by oldshurst442