Alternative Fuels & Propulsion RANDOM

[G. David Felt]

Cool Read for those interested in how Tesla is improving quality of the Tesla Y over the Tesla 3. They replaced 70 core underbody parts with 1 underbody casting part. 

The Tesla 3 is the base on which the Tesla Y is built and with that they have a new patent and a new stamping/casting machine. 

For now the Tesla Y will have the superior core underbody system compared to the Tesla 3, yet Musk has stated that all their auto's will move to this kind of system. 

One observation is the ease of which it will allow an auto that is rearended to have a solid replacement underbody part put on and no stretched/straightend underbody parts in the rear. Very cool.

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/in-model-y-tesla-replaces-70-underbody-parts-with-one-casting/

[G. David Felt]

VW plans to have a selection of auto's on the market later this year and expanded in 2021 for under $22,000. This is the ID-1 that is based on the Global MEB EV platform. If enough interest is found in the US, they series could even come here.

VW currently does not see anything below the ID-3 coming to America due to the larger size demand of the auto buying public here. The ID-1 should be a big selling auto all over Europe and Asia.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/02/volkswagen-plans-to-launch-a-family-of-affordable-electric-cars-under-22000/

Nissan plans for EV's and Hybrids has pretty much leaked out and the company is planning to use their relationship with Mitsubishi and Renault for these auto's. Mitsubishi will build Nissan Plub-in Hybrids and Renault will build the EV's. Currently this is for Europe and Asian markets at this time.

Electrek's Take is that Nissan is entrenching to save resouces and giving up on leading the EV industry as the Leaf has done for the last decade. Sadly, it will be interesting to see where Nissan goes with EVs.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/04/nissan-plans-to-rely-more-on-partnerships-for-ev-production/

FINAL News bit for tonight, seems Tesla is moving one step closer to leaving the relationship with Panasonic for building Cells for their auto's.

Tesla has placed an order with Korea's Hanwha company that is one of the largest builders of Battery Cell production equipment for allowing Tesla to build their own cells thus reducing costs further.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/04/tesla-battery-making-machines-cells/

[ocnblu]

8 hours ago, riviera74 said:

The Bolt was not an SUV.

You keep referring to the Bolt in the past tense.  How come?

[ocnblu]

5 hours ago, dfelt said:

Cool Read for those interested in how Tesla is improving quality of the Tesla Y over the Tesla 3. They replaced 70 core underbody parts with 1 underbody casting part. 

Whoa how is that going to work for crash repair?  There are going to be a lot of totaled out Teslas.

[G. David Felt]

2 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Whoa how is that going to work for crash repair?  There are going to be a lot of totaled out Teslas.

In watching the video, it would appear that you have a series of bolts that come off and the unit can be removed. So a rear end accident that would probably break the honey comb area over the wheels and then they unbolt the old back under carriage piece and replace it, replace the rear body parts and reassemble it would seem to me.

Thinking on this, just as they have the honey comb impact absorbing points on the front of an auto. This appears to be the same type of thing in the back that would allow safety for the occupants of the auto by having this undercarriage piece take the brunt of the hit.

[balthazar]

Yikes; a bolt-in CAST aluminum structural element???

[surreal1272]

4 hours ago, ocnblu said:

You keep referring to the Bolt in the past tense.  How come?

You keep using that ONE example when every other example from GM and Chevrolet say otherwise. From the GM fleet order guide and the Bolt...

 

Now, why make the comparison the way they did? It's easy, because it is and never was marketed as an SUV or CUV. And again, I did time at a Chevy dealership and NOT once would find anything resembling and SUV or CUV in its marketing materials nor did any salesman push it as such, especially when its own window sticker says "5 DR WAGON". Stop splitting hairs over this and using one obvious error of an example to support this notion that the Bolt was sold as something it clearly wasn't.

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by surreal1272

[G. David Felt]

@surreal1272 That is a a great post, who knew that the Bolt had more interior room than the Equinox and I love the Adrian Steel cage package that protects the front folks. Great service auto for companies.

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Yikes; a bolt-in CAST aluminum structural element???

Considering how much aluminum and carbon fiber is in planes, I figure auto's can easily handle it too.

[balthazar]

18 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Considering how much aluminum and carbon fiber is in planes, I figure auto's can easily handle it too.

They don’t build planes to absorb impacts with other planes tho.

[G. David Felt]

6 minutes ago, balthazar said:

They don’t build planes to absorb impacts with other planes tho.

But they do build them to withstand forces greater than what happens in an auto accident. That alone from an engineering standpoint shows that Aluminum/High Strength steel sub assembly like this can work. Especially with the honey comb crumple zone would imply that it is designed much like the front end of auto's to absorb the impact in protecting occupants and then allow it to be replaced to get the auto back on the road asap IMHO.

Latest Update on the Jaguar XJ Sedan. 

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/05/04/electric-jaguar-xj-design/

Jag has confirmed that while they are ditching all ICE power trains for the next generation XJ sedan, they are not going to give up their style, size and luxury interior as other auto companies have done.

Jag states they will keep the elegant luxury look of the XJ sedan and evolve it for the 21st century.

Currently the new EV sedan is undergoing cold weather testing at the far north arctic circle.

[riviera74]

7 hours ago, ocnblu said:

You keep referring to the Bolt in the past tense.  How come?

I thought it was no longer sold.  Sounds like the Bolt is still on sale brand new.

[Robert Hall]

20 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

I thought it was no longer sold.  Sounds like the Bolt is still on sale brand new.

They dropped the Volt, but the Bolt is still on sale.

[frogger]

22 hours ago, dfelt said:

Decent updates, but still has the terrible black n white dash and I agree with him on the inconsistent stitching found around the auto, the hard plastics, etc. There are things to question, but it is long in the tooth and needed to have a refresh sooner than waiting for the new platform that comes out next year.

Also after covering the whole dash, he ignores the sport mode. Sport mode changes the performance and driving dynamic.

Good comparison between the Leaf and the Hyundai EVs.

I have to wonder if aside from the stying and powertrain the next gen is going to be any good or filled with a bunch of annoyances like the lousy front seats and $14k 2012 econo car plastics.  The Silverado has similar issues with the interior bits and front seats, just lagging behind the competition.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by frogger

[Robert Hall]

Maybe if they restyle the Bolt to be more squared off w/ a Silverado-like nose it will do better.  Or Camaro-like styling. 

[balthazar]

44 minutes ago, frogger said:

The Silverado has similar issues with the interior bits and front seats, just lagging behind the competition.

I sat in a '19 Silverado- the seats were a bit on the hard side but not terrible. The issue becomes -with as high as these trucks are- that the softer/deeper the front seat is, the faster the exit-side bolster wears out/thru. I don't want to sink 6 inches into a seat and they have to scooch & scooch to get in/out, or to adjust my position while driving.

Then again- I actually use a truck to work out of/with, not cruise 4 states away with a power boat on the hitch. Supple squishy leather is not going to last vs. cheaper, more durable materials.

Edited May 5, 2020 by balthazar

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

I sat in a '19 Silverado- the seats were a bit on the hard side but not terrible. The issue becomes -with as high as these trucks are- that the softer/deeper the front seat is, the faster the exit-side bolster wears out/thru. I don't want to sink 6 inches into a seat and they have to scooch & scooch to get in/out, or to adjust my position while driving.

Then again- I actually use a truck to work out of/with, not cruise 4 states away with a power boat on the hitch. Supple squishy leather is not going to last vs. cheaper, more durable materials.

Add running boards to address the seat issue?

[balthazar]

Running boards = ?

[ocnblu]

10 hours ago, dfelt said:

honey comb impact absorbing points on the front of an auto.

link please

9 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

I did time

That explains it! 

[ocnblu]

9 hours ago, surreal1272 said:

"5 DR WAGON"

You do realize that on vehicle registration cards, SUV are called "WAGONS", right?

[Robert Hall]

13 hours ago, ocnblu said:

You do realize that on vehicle registration cards, SUV are called "WAGONS", right?

Ya, just renewed my Jeep reg yesterday...said ‘2014 Jeep WGN’.   Which makes sense, wagon is the body style, SUV is the vehicle type.    

Edited May 6, 2020 by Robert Hall

[G. David Felt]

EV FAILURE, Not a term I would likely use normally or lightly use at all, but Lexus has made me use this term in regards to their First Lexus EV that just went on sale in China, will go on sale in Europe at the end of the year and the US next year.

WHY do I think this is an EV FAILUE?

Simple, following the official release from Lexus, we start with the positive. Decent battery warranty, 10 years or 1 million KM or about 621,000 miles. So they do believe in their battery but then Nissan did too and for gen 1 and gen 2 of the Nissan leaf you get the same type of battery, air cooled battery pack of 54.3 kilowatt size.

Lexus, like Nissan is using the onboard AC system to to circulate cooled air around the battery pack and heating elements in the floorboard to deal with cold weather use. Lexus uses an active management system compared to Nissan's passive system.

This in comparison to Tesla, Rivian, GM who all believe a liquid temp controller circulation system while a bit heavier is better for optimizing battery life and density. This is also proven out by a story electrek did on 8 lessons about EV battery health from a 6,300 EV fleet.

You can read the Electrek story for the 8 lessons and all the details on battery health, but the core is that liquid temp controlled battery packs degrade at 2.3% annually compared to air cooled battery packs at 4.2%.

The other reason for liquid cooling is that if Nissan and Toyota / Lexus expect to go beyond a 50kW DC fast charging rate, they will need the liquid cooling to manage temperature when Quick Charging.

For the best selling Electric auto from Nissan, the Leaf, one has to wonder if they are really committed to the EV auto's like they say they are.

https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-health-from-6300-electric-cars/

https://newsroom.lexus.eu/ux-300e-first-all-electric-lexus-offers-class-leading-quality-and-a-10-year-battery-warranty/

 

[G. David Felt]

AWESOME JOB FORD!!!

Ford took a concept and went to production in a positive air hood system for health care workers that is battery powered with the required HEPA filter in 40 days. This keeps all the nasty viruses away while allowing a much more positive safe working setup for end users. This is CDC approved.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ford-respirator-healthcare-workers-coronavirus/

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/pictures/ford-covid-19-coronavirus-respirator/35/

Note the Health Care worker is wearing gloves and face mask while she modeled the unit for pictures. You would not normally wear the paper face mask.

[G. David Felt]

California CARB has released their final draft of the Advanced Clean Trucks Standard and entered their 30 Day public comment period.

Not going political on this or taking a side one way or another, but lets look at the facts of what California is proposing for Diesel from Semi trucks Class 8 all the way down to your Ford, GM and Ram pickup trucks. This policy would apply to manufactures that sell 500 or more trucks of any class a year in the state.

So by 2035 here it is by the numbers.

• Class 8 or what is known as Semi Trucks 40% sold have to be Electric
• Medium Duty trucks, this is HD delivery trucks and vans 75% have to be electric
• Consumer trucks such as the F250 or Silverado 55% have to be electric

CARB says that this new standard that could go into effect by end of 2020 would require that 4,000 of the estimated 75,000 new consumer truck sales would have to be electric by 2024 with 20% of the trucks on the road in California being electric by 2035.

There are currently 27 companies in California that sell 70 models of electric trucks / buses.

The Union of Concerned Scientists hailed this standard but said it does not go far enough and the reason for this is as follows: 28 million trucks / buses on the roads of America represent 10% of all vehicles on the road in America, but these trucks / buses contribute 28% of carbon emissions, 45% of Nitrous oxides and 57% of particulate matter pollution. Diesel being the most toxic fuel used in the transportation business.

Interesting note about this is that China current emission standards and plan to go to an all electric auto economy by 2040 has fashioned it after CARB. China is watching CARB on this as the commercial truck / bus industry is the last sector to be updated with new regulations to push into the EV era.

Now by the numbers and the fact that many companies are outside of the state of California and deliver or pickup in the state using trucks registered elsewhere  will not force an all out transition from one fueled by Diesel to one powered by battery pack or Hydrogen.

California Trucking Association is disheartened by this standard being pushed out at a time of a pandemic with businesses in survival mode and what many believe will end up being a generational recession that could last a decade to recover from.

• https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/rulemaking/2019/advancedcleantrucks
• https://chargedevs.com/newswire/california-proposes-to-enact-zero-emission-mandate-for-commercial-vehicles/

[riviera74]

CARB making CA air quality clean again.  Bravo.  Still leading in auto air quality since 1967.

[G. David Felt]

Ford Motor Company had a press release yesterday on the new Mach e and how it will be the first among Fords auto products where the auto will receive over the air updates and the system will get it's first update 6 months after deliveries begin as they keep the entire system fresh and continually improving much like Tesla has done for years.

This should help to retain higher value as an auto no longer will be stagnant compared to newer auto year makes. Ford does say that you can schedule when your auto will take the update so that larger updates that might take a few minutes can do it while you sleep.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128123_2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-electric-suv-cues-a-shift-to-over-the-air-updates

GM also has their new mega Gigabit system for the whole auto that will be receiving over the air updates. The future is finally coming here now.

? One does wonder how much band width data will be flying over our heads as the auto industry moves to this model. with hundreds of millions of auto's on the road and as they get replaced with modern ones, that bandwidth push of data will get bigger and bigger.

[balthazar]

Well, in the 150 years it will take to replace the 400 million vehicles in the US, assumedly there'll be plenty of time to upgrade there.

[riviera74]

41 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Well, in the 150 years it will take to replace the 400 million vehicles in the US, assumedly there'll be plenty of time to upgrade there.

Make that 50 rather than 150.

[balthazar]

^ 20 years to get to 2%. 

Would have to involve titanic changes in the EV world to see mass changeover.... and with the huge price jump over comparable IC and the inevitable & already-begun recession, the mountain just doubled in height.

Like you’ve said many times; prices are going to have to plummet on EVs to instigate a tidal change.

Edited May 13, 2020 by balthazar

[ykX]

50 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ 20 years to get to 2%.

It took about 40 years for ICE to completely replace horses. Two biggest reasons that made that possible was many more good roads and better manufacturing that made ICE vehicles much more reliable and cheaper.  If money and effort will be invested to make charging infrastructure and more mainstream manufacturers enter EV market I think we will see a dramatic increase in EV vehicles.

A simple fact from engineering standpoint, EV vehicle is about 70% percent efficient vs ICE efficiency of about 25%.  Simply doesn't make sense not to use something that is better.

Edited May 13, 2020 by ykX

[frogger]

54 minutes ago, ykX said:

It took about 40 years for ICE to completely replace horses. Two biggest reasons that made that possible was many more good roads and better manufacturing that made ICE vehicles much more reliable and cheaper.  If money and effort will be invested to make charging infrastructure and more mainstream manufacturers enter EV market I think we will see a dramatic increase in EV vehicles.

A simple fact from engineering standpoint, EV vehicle is about 70% percent efficient vs ICE efficiency of about 25%.  Simply doesn't make sense not to use something that is better.

IMO China is going to dictate when EV's become the norm when they decide to end new ICE or hybrid vehicle sales there.  Probably by the time battery costs have come down 50%.. I don't have a great guess for when that happens, probably within 20 years though given the amount of research happening.

 

[G. David Felt]

3 hours ago, balthazar said:

Well, in the 150 years it will take to replace the 400 million vehicles in the US, assumedly there'll be plenty of time to upgrade there.

Naw 50 years or less.

• People are already creatures of habit in regards to plugging in at home for recharge overnight.
• Prices are dropping on batteries and EV components in big ways.
• Europe and China have already committed to this change, the US due to failed leadership in many different departments will end up following along as auto companies are not going to continue ICE auto's for 150 years. 20 to 30 years at best if not less.
• EV assembly is much less complex than ICE, higher profits will come with less manufacturing costs. Just makes business sense.
• West coast is already well staged for EV support in charging, Chicago just implemented a required charging parking spots on all buildings https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chicago-to-require-evse-ready-parking-spaces/
• GM is fast tracking building EVs and opening up the plant due to less labor required, greater spacing between workers, safer working for the workers. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128140_gm-has-fast-tracked-its-electric-vehicle-program-in-pandemic-slowdown
• Even reviews of PHEV show why moving away from ICE only auto's is a good thing. https://chargedevs.com/features/2020-lincoln-aviator-grand-touring-review-of-the-brands-first-plug-in-hybrid/
• Electric Power Trains are far more efficient and getting better every day than ICE will ever be.
• Reduction in local pollution to air, ground, and home is better for humans.

Yes I could go on, but I honestly think just like about 50 years to replace horses with ICE auto's, I see ICE being replaced by EVs in 50 but honestly less years.

Future auto customization will be people taking their favorite old auto, removing the old ICE power train and converting to Electric.

[G. David Felt]

6 minutes ago, frogger said:

IMO China is going to dictate when EV's become the norm when they decide to end new ICE or hybrid vehicle sales there.  Probably by the time battery costs have come down 50%.. I don't have a great guess for when that happens, probably within 20 years though given the amount of research happening.

 

China has already stated 2040 is the final year for any new ICE auto's / trucks / buses to be sold. Many cities have already put in place earlier dates to stop the sale due to hazardous air quality.  Same as Britain and France.

Chin'a Chongqing Changan auto company has already stated with stock holder support for the stop of all sales of ICE auto's in 2025 as they will convert 100% to EV production by then. 2024 will be the end of manufacturing of ICE auto's with sales to end by Dec 31st 2025.

https://www.wardsauto.com/chinas-chongqing-changan-halt-sales-ice-powered-cars-2025

[frogger]

24 minutes ago, dfelt said:

China has already stated 2040 is the final year for any new ICE auto's / trucks / buses to be sold. Many cities have already put in place earlier dates to stop the sale due to hazardous air quality.  Same as Britain and France.

Chin'a Chongqing Changan auto company has already stated with stock holder support for the stop of all sales of ICE auto's in 2025 as they will convert 100% to EV production by then. 2024 will be the end of manufacturing of ICE auto's with sales to end by Dec 31st 2025.

https://www.wardsauto.com/chinas-chongqing-changan-halt-sales-ice-powered-cars-2025

I have yet to see a date from China as a whole on banning ICE, just an annoucement that they will at some point.  That video doesn't even offer one and has a clickbait thumbnail with 2040 on it.

 

[G. David Felt]

Wow, for the first time in 40 years people are seeing the Mountains, Himalayas and for many the first time they have ever seen mountains from the cities. Shows the Pandemic is cleaning up the planet air.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/13/india-co2-emissions-drop-for-the-first-time-in-40-years/#more-133672

https://electrek.co/2020/04/11/climate-crisis-weekly-are-our-oceans-doomed-or-can-they-heal/

Some of the before and after pics are amazing.

For those who are into electronics, this is an outstanding read on how Tesla went from basic Industrial standard semiconductors modules to semi-custom built units. The industry was used to building for long life in commercial applications of 600V, 1,200V and 1,700 volt applications with 3-phase motors for long life and not necessarily fast switching. This gets into the meat and potatoes of why Tesla has changed from their heavy duty design for the Tesla S and X to a semi-custom power module design for the Model 3 and Y inverter.

The whole industry is changing and changing fast. Cool stuff on semi conductors if you interested.

https://chargedevs.com/features/heres-why-tesla-transitioned-to-a-semi-custom-power-module-design-in-model-3-inverter/

Final good read is on the GM change to fast track the Hummer and Cadillac EV production. Love the updated comment from GM about the possible Electric Camaro. So while reveals have been delayed, production has not and GM says they are still on track to sell 1 million EVs per year Globally by 2025.

The Camaro was NOT shown at EV day where no camera's or smartphones were allowed. They have fast-tracked a 3rd EV for production, many think this is a Camaro EV to compete against the Mach-e from Ford.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128140_gm-has-fast-tracked-its-electric-vehicle-program-in-pandemic-slowdown

[G. David Felt]

Kia update news: Back in January of this year, Kia announced that their first dedicated EV would be a Crossover like sedan.

Now Kia is updating the information on their new EV Auto. It will now be a poster child of affordable but high speed charging as Kia like GM are both going to use the new industry standard 800V charging system which is what the Porsche Taycan uses. This means that the Kia will recharge it's 300 mile battery pack in 20 min or less depending on DC supply. Current 800V fast chargers can hit 250 kW charging for the 20 min recharge rate, as the newer spec DC fast chargers are installed these are 350 kW rated and that will cut in half to about 10 min charging for 300 miles.

https://electrek.co/2020/05/13/kia-to-offer-crazy-fast-ev-charging-with-800v-battery-system/#more-133701

[balthazar]

11 hours ago, ykX said:

It took about 40 years for ICE to completely replace horses.

Horses still exist.

But I don't remotely feel the auto was a replacement for the horse. That would be the tractor.

[balthazar]

10 hours ago, dfelt said:

 

• People are already creatures of habit in regards to plugging in at home for recharge overnight.
• Prices are dropping on batteries and EV components in big ways.
• Europe and China have already committed to this change, the US due to failed leadership in many different departments will end up following along as auto companies are not going to continue ICE auto's for 150 years. 20 to 30 years at best if not less.
• EV assembly is much less complex than ICE, higher profits will come with less manufacturing costs. Just makes business sense.

Future auto customization will be people taking their favorite old auto, removing the old ICE power train and converting to Electric.

• People clamor and cry for public chargers, and use them regularly, despite having functioning outlets in their homes. I see it all the time, daily.
• Prices dropping on components has yet to translate to the MSRP. Tesla -arguably the largest & most efficient EV maker, has RAISED the cost of getting into a Tesla.
• We're sitting at 2% of sales after 20 years, and you really think we're going to see another 92% in another 20 years??? We were told we'd already be at 50% in another 4.
• There are no "EV high profits"- Tesla eeked out a profit in what- 5 of 35 quarters? They need another 8 years to just break even- you can't just wave away the billions lost in the past. 'EV high profits', right now, are as real as the Mercedes One vaporcar.
• People who value old cars, for the vast majority, value how they were built new. There'll be a few folk who electrifiy old cars, but that's not an incoming tide for the segment, sorry.

Edited May 14, 2020 by balthazar

[oldshurst442]

17 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Horses still exist.

But I don't remotely feel the auto was a replacement for the horse. That would be the tractor.

Not quite...accurate.  On tractors replacing horses, on cars replacing horses and on EVs replacing cars...

Tractors, sports cars, race cars, pick-up trucks, panel vans, 18 wheelers, passenger cars, buses, taxis, etc all replaced horses and donkeys and ponies and camels and oxes  etc...

 

Romans raced their horses. Chariot horse racing. Greeks before them, but I digress. So...in THIS caes...race cars replaced rce horses.

Car equivalent today?  yes? no?

Oxes and Donkeys and Clydesdales were replaced by tractors and panel vans and the like...

Of coarse horses still exist and are part of our life still today. We humans have been using horses  for all our needs since the dawn of time...   

I forgot to mention...tanks and assault vehicles...war machines...these also have replaced the horse...the war horse. 

And even airplanes... if you were to believe in Greek mythology ( Perseus and Pegasus) but Im digressing again. 

The electric motor is just the powertrain that will eventually replace the internal combustion engine (maybe) in cars. The automobile itself aint going nowhere...just like the horse. 

  

 

[balthazar]

I think we tend to have a romanticized ideal that horses were owned for transportation, when the (private) owner primarily had them for work [race horses (then & now) are a different category]. Folk owned horses for work, and, since they were right there; used them for occasional transportation too, but that was not their usual purpose. Yes- there were exceptions.

A horse carried 1 (sometimes 2) people, out in the weather, at 5-10 MPH. Or 3 or 4 or 5, but then you'd need a wagon and another horse (and you'd be going slower yet). Tractors took over the work of horses, but no one drove their tractor to town for transportation; they took their Model T. The tractor replaced the common horse.

Autos were a new category. They enabled at-will / discretionary transportation. At speed, protected from the weather. A Model T could do 40+. With a top. It got 17-18 MPH with a 10-gal tank, for a range of 170-180 miles. That was 8 or 10 times what a horse would do in a day.

Electric-powered autos do the exact same fundamental and functional things an IC auto does; carry 1-5 passengers, protected from the weather, with radio & comfortable seats & A/C, at 75 MPH for hours at a time. That right there is why full replacement will take FAR longer than all the so-called experts/analysts claim. The only metric that will change that faster than the last 20+ year's history is a substantially lower price than the equivalent IC auto.
 

[G. David Felt]

2 hours ago, balthazar said:

• People clamor and cry for public chargers, and use them regularly, despite having functioning outlets in their homes. I see it all the time, daily.
• Prices dropping on components has yet to translate to the MSRP. Tesla -arguably the largest & most efficient EV maker, has RAISED the cost of getting into a Tesla.
• We're sitting at 2% of sales after 20 years, and you really think we're going to see another 92% in another 20 years??? We were told we'd already be at 50% in another 4.
• There are no "EV high profits"- Tesla eeked out a profit in what- 5 of 35 quarters? They need another 8 years to just break even- you can't just wave away the billions lost in the past. 'EV high profits', right now, are as real as the Mercedes One vaporcar.
• People who value old cars, for the vast majority, value how they were built new. There'll be a few folk who electrifiy old cars, but that's not an incoming tide for the segment, sorry.

I will disagree with you and post this very good read on Transportation and the Carriage age.

Transportation in America and the Carriage Age.pdf

To quote a few we documented facts as discussed in this educational research paper:

The carriage era lasted only a little more than 300 years, from the late seventeenth century until the early twentieth century. For much of that time, only the very wealthiest people could afford to own and maintain their own vehicle. In the United States, the real height of the carriage era lasted less than a century, from about 1850 to 1910. Primitive roads held back wheeled travel in this country until well into the nineteenth century, while the advent of the automobile doomed the horse-drawn vehicle as a necessity of life and transportation in the early 1900s.

While there were still more than 4,600 carriage companies operating in the United States as late as 1914, by 1925 there were barely 150. By 1929, there were fewer than 90.**

**For the source of these statistics and a thorough but readable account of the rise and fall of the American carriage industry, the following book is highly recommended: Kinney, Thomas A. The Carriage Trade: Making Horse-Drawn Vehicles in America. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2004.

At the turn of the nineteenth century, there were 21 million horses in the U.S. and only about 4,000 automobiles.

End result, I expect the EV to do to ICE what ICE did to the Horse.

EV is becoming more reliable, has far less maintenance and you can easily power it , recharge it just about anywhere. Yes it takes time and is slow, so was ICE in the early years. Yet look at ICE now. EV has already replaced most ICE as being faster, R&D is proving to build better and better batteries. So in time people will change to EVs just like they did with cell phones for Smartphones.

[balthazar]

^ And I disagree with that link; far too broad and focuses more on carriages as vehicles than horses as the 'engine'.
Carriage companies as a composite number saw the exact same thing the auto industry did; consolidation and survival of the fittest. Look at cell phone companies in 2000 vs. now.

The 'cell phone < smart phone' is equally as illegitimate as the 'horse<auto' comparison.
The smart phone does tons of different things that the cell phone could not. Note how each succeeding generation of smart phone has lesser & lesser upgrades over the previous one.

The EV auto doesn't do much of anything differently than the IC auto. Functionally it's identical.
Problem is- it costs too damned much. And with no signs of that dropping, gas being dirt cheap & getting moreso by the day... AND millions out of work- the EV business model just slammed head-on into a bridge abutment.
 

Edited May 14, 2020 by balthazar

[G. David Felt]

16 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ And I disagree with that link; far too broad and focuses more on carriages as vehicles than horses as the 'engine'.
Carriage companies as a composite number saw the exact same thing the auto industry did; consolidation and survival of the fittest. Look at cell phone companies in 2000 vs. now.

The 'cell phone < smart phone' is equally as illegitimate as the 'horse<auto' comparison.
The smart phone does tons of different things that the cell phone could not. Note how each succeeding generation of smart phone has lesser & lesser upgrades over the previous one.

The EV auto doesn't do much of anything differently than the IC auto. Functionally it's identical.
Problem is- it costs too damned much. And with no signs of that dropping, gas being dirt cheap & getting moreso by the day... AND millions out of work- the EV business model just slammed head-on into a bridge abutment.
 

EV's just like ICE are starting out as a luxury item for the wealthier of society, but prices are dropping, feature functions are there for those that want connectivity and reduction in maintenance for personal transportation.

While Gas has dropped in price, ICE Auto's have gone up in price. I do not see that the cheap gas is making the ICE auto that big of a value over EVs. 

A $10K basic difference between them as I showed in the comparison is not that big of a difference and I expect it to drop big time when other EVs come out over the next 18 months.

With Millions out of work, I do not see ICE sales taking off again either. Both business models just slammed head-on into a bridge abutment.

[ocnblu]

6 hours ago, oldshurst442 said:

Oxes

LOL what mother tongue is this

6 hours ago, balthazar said:

Tractors took over the work of horses, but no one drove their tractor to town for transportation; they took their Model T. The tractor replaced the common horse.

1938 Minneapolis-Moline UDLX... built in response to demand from customers who needed to own one expensive machine for farm work AND trips to town.

[ocnblu]

3 hours ago, dfelt said:

While Gas has dropped in price, ICE Auto's have gone up in price. I do not see that the cheap gas is making the ICE auto that big of a value over EVs. 

LOL gas would need to go to like $8/gallon before EVs make any kind of monetary sense.  With gas so low, things are going the other way, not the way you want them to.

[balthazar]

Both motive method autos feature plenty of ‘connectivity’, and almost no one does their own maintenance, so that’s not a major factor either.

Whats probably a larger factor is Tesla quality issues, not maintenance.

The claim that EVs now are where IC was in the beginning is invalid, as I’ve outlined. Besides, EVs were there in the beginning, too; so in addition to not being a different thing, they’re not a ‘new thing’.

[G. David Felt]

Seems Lucid has parked their testing fleet of 40 auto's till California lets them get back to work on the road, but the engineers are working from home to spit and polish the final details on the auto's as the Lucid Arizona assembly plant starts back up to continue work on installation of manufacturing equipment.

Lucid says they are still on target for delivery mid 2021 to the first customers of the Lucid Air Sedan.

 

 

I have to say to each their own but this Tesla Modded car is BUTT UGLY to me.

 

[riviera74]

3 hours ago, ocnblu said:

LOL gas would need to go to like $8/gallon before EVs make any kind of monetary sense.  With gas so low, things are going the other way, not the way you want them to.

Right now gas is cheap.  Not 1998 cheap, but still cheap compared to the last 15 years or so.  The reason CA went for hybrids and BEVs faster than anyone is because gas is so expensive there.  At $8/gal, CA would go full BEV in less than two years.  The rest of the USA, not that quickly.  Before COVID-19, gas in CA was around $4/gal, so hybrids and BEVs were already somewhat commonplace.  BEVs will make their impact one day, just not right now or anytime soon.

[ykX]

Tesla's secret new 'million mile' battery claims to slash cost of electric cars. To be introduced in China, it could drop cost to below parity with ICE cars

Autoblog

Electric car maker Tesla Inc plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models, and allow EV batteries to have second and third lives in the electric power grid.

New, low-cost batteries designed to last for a million miles of use and enable electric Teslas to sell profitably for the same price or less than a gasoline vehicle are just part of Musk's agenda, people familiar with the plans told Reuters.

Edited May 14, 2020 by ykX

[balthazar]

Longevity and future non-automotive usage does not impact new cost in any way.

While claims of 'slashed cost' are all well and good, there's still 2 hurdles to clear;

1. it has to actually happen, and
2. the OEM has to pass those reduced costs onto the consumer. With profit margins on EVs currently non-existent, I wouldn't hold my breath that's going to happen anytime soon. The consumer doesn't remotely care what a component costs the manufacturer.

[ykX]

@balthazar While I am not a huge EV proponent, personally last few years starting to change my mind. I can see the change and the advantages.  As a CONSUMER I can tell you, that personally when I will be in need of my next daily driver in about 6 years, EV will be on top of my shopping list.  I was not considering EV just couple years back.  

I mean this is really kind of pointless argument, you and @ocnblu will not change your mind and at the moment, purely from economical standpoint, ICE still wins the numbers.   However, like it or not EVs are coming.  EVs are more efficient and when the cost of batteries will  come down they will be able to compete easily with ICE vehicles.  You can see that EVERY automaker has a number of new models in pipeline already and more will come. 

Only time will tell... 

Edited May 14, 2020 by ykX