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There are no production solid state battery vehicles.
I guarantee you they'll be priced at a premium to 'regular' EV vehicles, at least initially. This places them even further out of 'Maria's' reach than a 10-yr old Leaf.

IC bans CANNOT be enacted until the tech is readily able to filter down to the low income tier of consumers.

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

There are no production solid state battery vehicles.
I guarantee you they'll be priced at a premium to 'regular' EV vehicles, at least initially. This places them even further out of 'Maria's' reach than a 10-yr old Leaf.

IC bans CANNOT be enacted until the tech is readily able to filter down to the low income tier of consumers.

I would disagree with you as we have to look at the bigger picture. Do we allow old Smoke belching Oil dripping breaking down ICE auto's on the streets that contaminate and harm the lungs of everyone versus letting a single person drive it causing more damage as they cannot afford to fix it?

The good of the Many out weight the good of the one or couple.

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7 hours ago, balthazar said:

, but I have a hard time picturing a mother, 2 kids and weeks worth of groceries going by bus. Plus, she already has a car, remember?

Ha!

My mother did EXACTLY that in the 1970s albeit with one kid.  My dad worked the night shift for awhile and the grocery shopping was done by my mom, me in the carriage taking the city bus.  PS: she hardly spoke a word in English and none in French.

My grandparents...with 9 kids, 75-85-90 years ago in the 1910s and 1920s and the 1930s, not only did they not know both languages, but they had NO car and the transport system in Montreal was just a tramway. Not even taxis...  And they were dirt phoquing poor. 

Common man!

Stop with the petty excuses!  

You said it later, that banning of ICE should be done when proper charging infrastructure is in place and  REAL affordable EVs are in the marketplace.  THAT is a much more reasonable argument.  Ill get behind THAT sentiment.  Not the rest.  

Edited by oldshurst442
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Sorry Balthy, I must disagree with that point of view.

If there is a will, there is a way.

If the going get tough, the tough get going.

The ultimate measure of man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy- MLK 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by oldshurst442
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6 hours ago, balthazar said:

So you're saying people struggling & living at or below the poverty line have no will to do better for themselves, and are content to stay at their station in life.

Interesting.

Im not saying that. 

Actually. You are.  

Making excuses of why things shoudnt change because poor single mom failed at her marriage and has 2 kids to lug around without a father for her children and no means of transportation.  Down on her luck?  Maybe shytty choices she made in her life...     

This is just a "what if" scenario you presented us with.  You tried to use it to make me cry us to why ICE shoudnt be banned.   I turned around THAT scenario to MY favour to discredit that excuse with a REAL anecdotal situation.

My grandparents, just as many poor people in Montreal at that time, who had huge families, no jobs, 1933 economic crisis, had to search for jobs, lug around kids while walking to market places to buy the little food they could afford, in extremely cold and snowy Montreal weather. 

Yeah.  If those people did it then,  then in your story, single moms with 2 kids and jalopy Tesla Model 3s and Chevy Bolts could do the same.  

And...just to be clear here.  I come from a very very poor background.    

 

 

 

Edited by oldshurst442
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No one here is crying or denying or wailing or making excuses.  I'm simply applying real world scenarios / questions that a unilateral ban unquestionably would see the disadvantaged, further disadvantaged. Have the 'ban ideologues' considered these scenarios? Are you sure?

- - - - -
Let me interject this here: have any of these U.S. proposed IC bans been defined at literally banning ALL IC vehicles at Date X, or is it merely banning the FUTURE SALE of new IC vehicles? I strongly doubt a unilateral ban would stand up legally (the grandfathering legal basis), but I put nothing past idiot planners & 'the good of the many' futurists.
- - - - -

I agree that people have and will continue to persevere, but note that the BASE LEVEL of what people have to endure, in general, has risen over time.  Decades ago, if you had a phone, it was common to be on a party line with 1 or more other families. Nowadays, if you qualify, the Gov't gives you a free smart phone, because somehow it's a 'necessity' that the taxpayer should cover. I didn't get a smart phone until 2019 (by choice tho).
My buddy, born in '55, grew up in a Brooklyn tenement building. 4 tiny apartments on each floor shared a common bathroom. Codes haven't allowed such to be built that way in probably over 50 years.

Saying it's OK for poor folk to lose their cars, be unable to afford an old EV (and if they could- have no place to charge it other than driving to a corporate retail place and sitting for hours), and told 'just ride the bus everywhere / pay for a taxi' seems incredibly cold-hearted. I mean; we're already dealing with folk so wretchedly downtrodden they have no ID if they had to show it to vote. :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

and if they could- have no place to charge it other than driving to a corporate retail place and sitting for hours)

How is that any different from putting gas in an ICE car at a gas station?

*SIGH*  charging times WILL go down.   Banning of ICE cars is not happening tomorrow...  and even if it were...charging times aint that bad now...    

Its that hyperbolic commentary that forbids me in actually agreeing with you on your points.  I actually DO agree with everything you have said.

 

 

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Id like to find common ground with this conversation.   Im exhausted with my day. However, If Im not headed to bed in the next hour, I will quote the areas of where I agree with you and where I dont, but Id like to concentrate of where we agree.  

If I am going beddy bye bye, Ill do this tomorrow.  

 

 

 

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I'll nutshell my interjection here : the "BAN".  The term needs to be defined, and of course it's going to vary widely depending on the source.

This was from a Feb '20 article :

Screen Shot 2020-09-03 at 9.15.00 PM.png

As stated above [RED ARROW], I can live with that (bill failed to get voted on, BTW).  There's a semblance of attrition allowed to work naturally... so that 10s and 10s of millions of IC vehicles will still be running & driving for decades & decades & decades to come. That's as it should be, and there the lowest income folk don't get stepped on right away. Also- it allows the classic car hobbyist to continue to preserve that history/hobby.

However, the focus then swings to the vast majority of the market- the middle. 2030 is only 9 years from now. There had better be a CRAP TON of truely median-priced choices out there, instead of Bollingers & Rivians and Daimler EQs (if they ever get into production) and Hummer EVs, cause the vast bulk of EVs available NOW and announced for the NEAR FUTURE are all hella expensive... other than a few.

Edited by balthazar
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I do agree with what you said, ban or not.  There need to be BEVs that start at about $15K, not $30K, for the EV market to be truly viable.  EVs have to get consumers to ditch the used car market for new EVs first.  Too bad they are not available right now.  2030 is certainly much more viable than right now for all of this to happen.  I do not think bans are really necessary.

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9 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

NEW EVs need to start at $15K.  All of your examples have older battery technology that may not survive and charge fully in five years.

Show me a new decently equipped car that starts at $15k.

Cheapest Spark in my 50mile radius has MSRP of  $19.6k.

Edited by ykX
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15 hours ago, balthazar said:

No one here is crying or denying or wailing or making excuses.  I'm simply applying real world scenarios / questions that a unilateral ban unquestionably would see the disadvantaged, further disadvantaged. Have the 'ban ideologues' considered these scenarios? Are you sure?

- - - - -
Saying it's OK for poor folk to lose their cars, be unable to afford an old EV (and if they could- have no place to charge it other than driving to a corporate retail place and sitting for hours), and told 'just ride the bus everywhere / pay for a taxi' seems incredibly cold-hearted. I mean; we're already dealing with folk so wretchedly downtrodden they have no ID if they had to show it to vote. :rolleyes:

Again.... (and again... and again.... and again...) 

This is not the usage pattern for EVs.  It may be the way new EV owners are doing it, but it's not the way it is done once you know what you're doing. 

First, and most importantly, 30 minutes gets you 200 miles in a Tesla, 30 minutes gets you 90 miles of range in a 2017 Bolt (from empty) and a 2020 will get you 100 miles, a Leaf on DC will fill up completely in 30 minutes.  All of the above cars can get from 0% to 100% in about an hour on fast charging.... 63 minutes for the Bolt if you want to get technical. So no, not hours and hours.

Furthermore, the Bolt, Tesla, and other 250+ range EVs have enough range to get 80% of non-commercial drivers through their week on a single charge.  Going on a normal weekly grocery run (not just eggs, cheese, milk, bread) can easily blow an hour of time.

Now this next part I know you understand, so what I don't understand is why you keep parroting the false narrative of how EV charging works. 

An EV driver does not need to be charging to full every time they charge. They only need to charge enough to get them through to the next charger plus some wiggle room for error.  I'm at Costco at least twice a week and the normal grocery store at least once a week.  It is unusual for me to be out of either place in less than 30 minutes unless I'm going in for one thing.   Right there my commuting miles are covered if I charge for 30 minutes each time.  But I do not need to get to 100% each time!  I just need to add just enough to get me the next few days till I'm at a charger again.   At my old job, I was able to charge at work for free... I'd never need to charge at home or at a retail facility. 

In short, the idea you have of the usage pattern of EV's is way off.... unfortunately, your way of thinking is the same as a lot of peoples' and it will take time to change that mentality. 

9 minutes ago, riviera74 said:

NEW EVs need to start at $15K.  All of your examples have older battery technology that may not survive and charge fully in five years.

That's why Tesla and GM warranty their batteries. 

hHfmm8w.png

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If I had to choose between new Spark and used Bolt there is no doubt in my mind I would go with Bolt.  I have a daily commute of about 85miles.  Even if used Bolt had a decreased range (even half of the original range) it would still be more than enough for my daily use.  My local Costco and my work don't have chargers yet but I could charge it overnight at my home.

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1 hour ago, ykX said:

If I had to choose between new Spark and used Bolt there is no doubt in my mind I would go with Bolt.  I have a daily commute of about 85miles.  Even if used Bolt had a decreased range (even half of the original range) it would still be more than enough for my daily use.  My local Costco and my work don't have chargers yet but I could charge it overnight at my home.

That's great, for you. And likely a majority of folk. But not everyone. Which was my earlier statement.

I'm at Costco at least twice a week and the normal grocery store at least once a week.


That's great, for you. And likely a majority of folk. But not everyone. There ARE folk who can't even consider a $60 fee to buy groceries. They shop in places like this, which may never have a public vehicle charger, ever :

Screen Shot 2020-09-04 at 10.39.04 AM.png

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Just now, balthazar said:

That's great, for you. And likely a majority of folk. But not everyone. Which was my earlier statement.
 


That's great, for you. And likely a majority of folk. But not everyone. There ARE folk who can't even consider a $60 fee to buy groceries. They shop in places like this, which may never have a public vehicle charger, ever :

Screen Shot 2020-09-04 at 10.39.04 AM.png

I don't believe I said everyone.  But even in locations like that there is going to be a Wawa or Sheetz or Getgo or a State Park or charging at/near their employer.

Furthermore, people in the locations like that photo are much more likely to live in a detached house.   Here in Pittsburgh (in a neighborhood where a lot of greenies live, but still) there is a neighborhood that most houses do not have driveways and yet I still see a number of scenes like this one. (Reserving your street parking is a local phenomenon here and generally accepted) 

OIP.jpeg

And as I mentioned... it's not hours and hours to charge a significant amount of miles. It's 30 minutes to an hour for a typical week of driving, and that's with technology available today and on the used market.  

The story continues to evolve and in 2030, the 2017 Bolt will be the same as any other 13 year old used economy car on the market... it will be dirt cheap and chargers will be everywhere.

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And I'm not talking about everyone, but those who would not be able to manage IF their IC car was banned and they couldn't afford even a 10-yr old leaf. Pics of a mercedes plugged in is another world from what I'm talking about.
Do you know how many houses I work at with NO external outlets? Co-incidentally; 2 yesterday.

Not all areas allow cords draped across public walkways, and less allow you to 'reserve' a street parking spot.

Seattle has their conditions defined : https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/SDOT/CAMs/CAM2119.pdf

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18 hours ago, balthazar said:

I'll nutshell my interjection here : the "BAN".  The term needs to be defined, and of course it's going to vary widely depending on the source.

This was from a Feb '20 article :

Screen Shot 2020-09-03 at 9.15.00 PM.png

As stated above [RED ARROW], I can live with that (bill failed to get voted on, BTW).  There's a semblance of attrition allowed to work naturally... so that 10s and 10s of millions of IC vehicles will still be running & driving for decades & decades & decades to come. That's as it should be, and there the lowest income folk don't get stepped on right away. Also- it allows the classic car hobbyist to continue to preserve that history/hobby.

However, the focus then swings to the vast majority of the market- the middle. 2030 is only 9 years from now. There had better be a CRAP TON of truely median-priced choices out there, instead of Bollingers & Rivians and Daimler EQs (if they ever get into production) and Hummer EVs, cause the vast bulk of EVs available NOW and announced for the NEAR FUTURE are all hella expensive... other than a few.

I understand and get the point your making. The bill while it died has been revised and introduced again for the fall session. While Eastern Washington is working to build and install more and more charging stations, they are plentiful around Western Washington and in all the state and federal parks. You can easily make any type of road trip right now around Washington as all the major roads have them.

I suspect that in the next 1-2yrs we will see a ban on sales of new ICE auto's. Seattle already has turned half the roads in the city to Bike / EV roads only. As such, it will become harder for an ICE auto to more around. This is why Amazon, UPS, FedEx and USPS are wanting EV auto's for delivery on top of plenty of other valid reasons.

I can live with a ban on New ICE auto sales and allowing existing ICE auto's to keep running till they are replaced.

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

And I'm not talking about everyone, but those who would not be able to manage IF their IC car was banned and they couldn't afford even a 10-yr old leaf. Pics of a mercedes plugged in is another world from what I'm talking about.
Do you know how many houses I work at with NO external outlets? Co-incidentally; 2 yesterday.

Not all areas allow cords draped across public walkways, and less allow you to 'reserve' a street parking spot.

Seattle has their conditions defined : https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/SDOT/CAMs/CAM2119.pdf

If you can't afford an 8-year old Leaf, you can't afford a car. 

2013 Ford Focus Electric - $4,868 - 74k miles

2014 Chevrolet Spark Electric - $4,995 - 62k miles and more torque than my Avalanche(!!)

There are 189 EVs for under $7000 and under 75,000 miles available on AutoTrader right now.... so maybe we can move past the "EV's aren't affordable" trope. 

Unless your house is on an electrical panel pre-1990 (and I fully admit that many houses are), the cost to install at charger averages $1200.  It costs roughly $1,295 to fuel a Toyota Corolla for 1year/15,000 miles at 2.59 a gallon and 30 mpg average (local average price).

Charging at home costs so little per mile compared to fueling with gas, that ICE maintenance more than exceeds that cost.

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They built a 2 new Wawas near me, less than 2 yrs old, from razed sites. 12 gas pumps, propane tanks, 2 air towers, ice machine. Zero chargers.
2nd one I am pretty positive has zerp chargers. Brand new Quick Check opened this year, ground up build, 12 or 16 pumps, no chargers.

NJ is running far behind on getting public chargers out there. There’s a few, but you’d have to plan on getting to them.

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23 minutes ago, balthazar said:

They built a 2 new Wawas near me, less than 2 yrs old, from razed sites. 12 gas pumps, propane tanks, 2 air towers, ice machine. Zero chargers.
2nd one I am pretty positive has zerp chargers. Brand new Quick Check opened this year, ground up build, 12 or 16 pumps, no chargers.

NJ is running far behind on getting public chargers out there. There’s a few, but you’d have to plan on getting to them.

When you can charge overnight at home, your work or while you shop or eat, very little need then for a Charge station unless your on a road trip and now via the auto nav system or your personal smartphone, you can easily find a charge point.

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7 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ I feel like you guys aren't reading my posts.

There are people living VASTLY different life styles than you are. Even if you can't relate, you get that, don't you??

Reality is complex. 

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11 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ I feel like you guys aren't reading my posts.

There are people living VASTLY different life styles than you are. Even if you can't relate, you get that, don't you??

I get that people live different life styles, but change is inevitable. 

People had to deal with this when changing from having barn space for the Horse and Buggy to an automobile. People I am sure that could afford the auto loved not having to feed and clean up after a horse.

Same here, once people realize the positive changes with EV's, the ease of charging in a far wider place for energy compared to gas stations, people will change. This is no different than people plugging their cell phone in at night where ever in their house they do it.

People adapt and history has shown this. While change might be hard for some or impossible for others, the bulk of society has shown they can change and do.

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1 hour ago, balthazar said:

^ I feel like you guys aren't reading my posts.

There are people living VASTLY different life styles than you are. Even if you can't relate, you get that, don't you??

I think I’ve pointed out multiple times different solutions for different lifestyles.

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Except the one I scenario'd.
Saying one solution is 'charging your EV when you're shopping at Costco' isn't responding to any comment I've made here. That's fine, but it's not, really, conversing on my point.

And I'll go back to it : IF any municipal 'bans' on IC vehicles proposes to be a unilateral & all-encompassing ban, where existing IC vehicles can no longer be registered... that approach is untenable and likely indefendable legally. My entire platform in this topic hinges on "ban". (I've stated multiple times I have no issue with EVs existing).

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

Reality is complex. 

Your needle is stuck.

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45 minutes ago, balthazar said:

Except the one I scenario'd.
Saying one solution is 'charging your EV when you're shopping at Costco' isn't responding to any comment I've made here. That's fine, but it's not, really, conversing on my point.

And I'll go back to it : IF any municipal 'bans' on IC vehicles proposes to be a unilateral & all-encompassing ban, where existing IC vehicles can no longer be registered... that approach is untenable and likely indefendable legally. My entire platform in this topic hinges on "ban". (I've stated multiple times I have no issue with EVs existing).

Your needle is stuck.

The way the bans in Europe work is that you are only allowed in the city center or congested areas if you have a certain color registration sticker (theirs goes where our inspection stickers go).

 Some of the bans are time based to keep heavy polluters out during rush hours.

But basically it works like this, only vehicles that meet the emissions requirements get the best sticker that can travel to city center at any time. If the police catch you driving (not parked, actively under power) and you have a banned sticker, you can be heavily fined. One of the only exceptions I know of is medical emergency,  but there may be others. 
Delivery and work trucks also get special hours for operation. 
 

Now all of the places that are planning total bans are the cities, specifically ones that have fantastic public transit, so your scenario of Aunt Millie who lives on the side of a remote mountain and only goes to a general store in a town of 1,000 doesn’t apply. 
 

Also, classic cars get emissions exemptions as long as they’re driven less than a certain distance per year.

Most people live in cities in this country, more than half. So I still maintain that EVs will be suitable to 80% of non-commercial drivers by 2030 without much difficulty. 
 

They’d be accepted by 50% of drivers if the financially accessible “middle class” ones didn’t look like stupid eggs. 

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Imagine the conversations in here if an ICE engine lost 40% of its capacity to function after 8 years or 100k miles, whichever came first.  That is GM's guideline for "normal operation" on Bolt's battery warranty.  And it's one of the better ones!  So lame.  And a potentially huge expense down the line, which points both fingers to the fact that EV are as throwaway as that Apple phone, but WAY, WAY more expensive.

It used to be, auto companies were planning obsolescence on the basis of body styling, primarily.  Then, yearly styling changes waned.

Now, with the average age of vehicles in the U.S. going up and up, planned obsolescence has pretty much been blunted with longer product cycles and improved long term mechanical quality/durability.

This warranty chart is a pathetic shine of light on manufacturer's expectations... a sad "new normal" of a vehicle's average lifespan, because c'mon man, nobody's going to replace a battery at their own expense, the car will be junked first.

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12 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Now all of the places that are planning total bans are the cities, specifically ones that have fantastic public transit, so your scenario of Aunt Millie who lives on the side of a remote mountain and only goes to a general store in a town of 1,000 doesn’t apply.

That wasn't remotely my scenario.

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2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

The battery degradation issue is widely not an issue.  In hybrids and EV, the cars are wearing out before the battery does. 
 

NYC’s and LA’s fleet of hybrid taxis age out before the battery dies. 

That may be true right now, but how many EVs will age out before the batteries in them die when they become a lot more commonplace?

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8 hours ago, Robert Hall said:

I’d assume most of these consumer EVs are leases...

Sure, for first "owners" (no one wants to buy a car that will be obsolete in a year anymore) but what about the poor saps who fall victim as second owners?

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16 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Sure, for first "owners" (no one wants to buy a car that will be obsolete in a year anymore) but what about the poor saps who fall victim as second owners?

Definitely wouldn’t want a used EV.  Given how fast the technology changes, EVs probably should be recycled rather than resold.   I wouldn’t buy a used phone, computer, tv or other appliance.  

Edited by Robert Hall
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Phone or computer; no. But a TV is no big deal; no moving parts and you never touch it physically  (not that I know where, offhand, to buy a used TV). I bought a used freezer from my barber for $40 and it's been humming along in the garage for probably 6 years now.

'Technology changes' are immaterial; if the device you bought did what you needed it to when you bought it, it should continue to do those same functions for some years. You don't have new needs; you have marketing department conditioning. ;)

Edited by balthazar
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On 9/4/2020 at 9:46 PM, ocnblu said:

If EV were so great, your "stupid eggs" comment would be moot.  People would buy them.  But they don't.

No. I like the powertrains in the EVs... I like the Tesla powertrain. The Bolt EV is an absolute hoot to drive.  My issue is the body they put them in.  I wouldn't buy a Bolt EV even if it was powered by a Blackwing or a 6.2 Ecotec.  I buy vehicles I like the looks of first, powertrain second. I bought the Avalanche because I like the Avalanche.  The 5.3 I would describe as adequate at best, but I would have definitely preferred at 6.2 or even an EV if those were options. 

Lots of people like the Tesla looks enough to buy one.  I do not. I think they look like a soulless jellybean and their interiors are spartan... but so does a '99 Taurus or Lumina. I wouldn't buy either of those either.

Put the Tesla powertrain in a CT6 and I don't care if I can't afford it, I'll make it work somehow. I really wish AWD wasn't a requirement for me or I'd pick up a CT6 Plug-in. 

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