Sales: April 2019 Sales Figures

[balthazar]

15 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Unemployment is low, but that's mostly that people who have been out of work stopped looking for work. 

Unemployment isn't merely "low", it's incredibly low.
U-6 unemployment (those who want a job but stopped looking) is also at the bottom of a downward trend- it was 11-12% in 2015, it was 6.9% in April.

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Unemployment isn't merely "low", it's incredibly low.
U-6 unemployment (those who want a job but stopped looking) is also at the bottom of a downward trend- it was 11-12% in 2015, it was 6.9% in April.

I believe both figures to be exaggerated and not true. Sadly a number of near retirement people have given up on finding jobs due to their expectation of high wages they had before the 2nd great depression this country had from 2007 to 2012. As such, I believe the U-6 number is closer to double that and the regular Unemployment is also higher than what is reported. 

Yet then what can really be believed anymore with all reporting seeming to become gray. Transparency is more and more no longer accurate.

I do question how companies must report things as the monthly reporting does not really take into account trends and quarterly I do believe is more accurate.

[balthazar]

4 hours ago, dfelt said:

I believe both figures to be exaggerated and not true. Sadly a number of near retirement people have given up on finding jobs due to their expectation of high wages they had before the 2nd great depression this country had from 2007 to 2012. As such, I believe the U-6 number is closer to double that and the regular Unemployment is also higher than what is reported.

What leads you to this opinion? And it may well be accurate, but then don't all government-sourced numbers fall under suspicion? If the current U-6 is actually 14%, was the 2015 number then actually 24%?? WHen it was reported to be 17% in 2010, was it actually 35%? 

Can you eliminate a sub conscious desire to see far worse economic numbers due to a personal opinion of current Government officials? Are you hoping for a sharp downturn?

I am positive most government numbers incorporate a degree of inaccuracy, but I believe the bulk of such errors are simply ineptitude. But I question whether even the federal gov't would purposely tweak a public number by anything close to 100%.  

[G. David Felt]

20 hours ago, balthazar said:

What leads you to this opinion? And it may well be accurate, but then don't all government-sourced numbers fall under suspicion? If the current U-6 is actually 14%, was the 2015 number then actually 24%?? WHen it was reported to be 17% in 2010, was it actually 35%? 

Can you eliminate a sub conscious desire to see far worse economic numbers due to a personal opinion of current Government officials? Are you hoping for a sharp downturn?

I am positive most government numbers incorporate a degree of inaccuracy, but I believe the bulk of such errors are simply ineptitude. But I question whether even the federal gov't would purposely tweak a public number by anything close to 100%.  

Based on normal hammers being charged to the idiot defense department at $800 in the past, I ignore the inept leadership that is hurting this country and look at the bloated lazy growth of federal jobs and how people seem to want to do minimal effort for a paycheck.

Your right, the numbers might not be double but I see a swelling of homeless people, I see a larger amount of youth not working just as much as I see melinials that assume the are entitled to 6 figure pay checks and 3-4 days of work while taking useless college courses for a useless liberal arts degree and then complain that the government from city to country, state and federal have not created high paying jobs for them.

I see locally how idiot city counsels have created art beautification jobs and the result is more like graffiti than actual artwork and how the city looks dirty than clean.

Locally when I go with the wife to the community kitchen to help cook and serve the community, I hear and see a growing group of youth and elderly, elderly that have given up on society and are taking a much reduced retirement and come to the community kitchen to get a meal and help. Youth that have given up as they seem to say the same thing over and over of I went to college and no one will hire me and I have big debt.

My son's ex-girl friend after 7 years of being together has 6 figures in school debt as she took a worthless fashion design course in shoe design and then dropped out just before graduating and moved back home. Alex got her to go back to school to get a real degree in business but as she gets ready to graduate, she informed him that she wanted a $15,000 2 carat diamond ring, an XC90 Volvo and a big house. My son makes good money, but is frugal and they could not come to terms of his idea of a life style and her Jones/Jones competition with her girlfriends. As such, 7 year relationship is over and she is only 30 thinking she deserves the life style of someone that makes $500,000 a year. She informed Alex that she does not see why the woman should have to work as that is why the guy is for.

I could go on and on, but from volunteer work in the community to seeing the relationships of my own kids, workers at work, trade shows, friends that do work in government, etc. I suspect the figures are missing a chunk of society.

I believe the real unemployment rate is 4-6% and the U-6 rate is between 8-10%.

I HONESTLY DO NOT want another depression, but the market, debt loads of counteries and individuals leads me to see a correction that will be painful.

[ykX]

5 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Based on normal hammers being charged to the idiot defense department at $800 in the past, I ignore the inept leadership that is hurting this country and look at the bloated lazy growth of federal jobs and how people seem to want to do minimal effort for a paycheck.

Just a little comment on the defense department.  While there is a LOT of waste, people who are outside the defense industry do not realize how much testing and what crazy specifications that "$800 hammer" so to speak had to go through and meet.  The prices might seems exaggerated, but when you look into detail, most of it makes sense.

Also, not to get personal but since you mentioned your son's situation I think he is responsible at large.   People do not change and in 7 years I think he should have realized who his ex-girlfriend really is.  No offense intended, just my personal opinion.

On the other hand my company has issues finding skilled technicians and engineers (maybe pay is not competitive enough, not sure, but when economy is bad and unemployment is high people compromise and take lower paying jobs)

[Robert Hall]

7 hours ago, dfelt said:

   My son makes good money, but is frugal and they could not come to terms of his idea of a life style and her Jones/Jones competition with her girlfriends. As such, 7 year relationship is over and she is only 30 thinking she deserves the life style of someone that makes $500,000 a year. She informed Alex that she does not see why the woman should have to work as that is why the guy is for. 

It's amazing in 2019 there are women still with such an obsolete mindset. If she wants the Volvo and big house, she should go work hard and earn it.. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Robert Hall

[G. David Felt]

2 minutes ago, ykX said:

Just a little comment on the defense department.  While there is a LOT of waste, people who are outside the defense industry do not realize how much testing and what crazy specifications that "$800 hammer" so to speak had to go through and meet.  The prices might seems exaggerated, but when you look into detail, most of it makes sense.

Also, not to get personal but since you mentioned your son's situation I think he is responsible at large.   People do not change and in 7 years I think he should have realized who his ex-girlfriend really is.  No offense intended, just my personal opinion.

On the other hand my company has issues finding skilled technicians and engineers (maybe pay is not competitive enough, not sure, but when economy is bad and unemployment is high people compromise and take lower paying jobs)

I agree with you on my Son and he also admits he should have addressed things much sooner in the relationship. Love is blind.

My company has 400 job opening for the Seattle office and we cannot find enough engineers. Problem is that we have way too many students in liberal art degrees than in the sciences here in America. Getting an H1 Visa is much harder now and no profitable company is going to hire someone with the wrong skill set to just fill a job.

This is dated and I could not find newer info but clearly the US while a tochnological powerhouse does not lead the world in students graduating in the sciences.

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-technological-countries-lag-behind-in-science-2015-12

 

6 minutes ago, Robert Hall said:

It's amazing in 2019 there are women still with such an obsolete mindset. If she want the Volvo and big house, she should go work hard and earn it.. 

Last night my son told me that she had also told him that she will expect the family to go on a 2 week vacation some place nice around the world every year where she gets waited on. I had to laugh, I came to realize in the last year that her dad pampered her, but WOW, had no idea till my son left her and moved out on his own and we see him more just what all went on in that relationship. Pretty woman with out dated thinking.

[A Horse With No Name]

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

It's amazing in 2019 there are women still with such an obsolete mindset. If she want the Volvo and big house, she should go work hard and earn it.. 

For better or worse, richer or poorer....has gone the way of the dodo bird...

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

I agree with you on my Son and he also admits he should have addressed things much sooner in the relationship. Love is blind.

My company has 400 job opening for the Seattle office and we cannot find enough engineers. Problem is that we have way too many students in liberal art degrees than in the sciences here in America. Getting an H1 Visa is much harder now and no profitable company is going to hire someone with the wrong skill set to just fill a job.

This is dated and I could not find newer info but clearly the US while a tochnological powerhouse does not lead the world in students graduating in the sciences.

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-technological-countries-lag-behind-in-science-2015-12

 

Last night my son told me that she had also told him that she will expect the family to go on a 2 week vacation some place nice around the world every year where she gets waited on. I had to laugh, I came to realize in the last year that her dad pampered her, but WOW, had no idea till my son left her and moved out on his own and we see him more just what all went on in that relationship. Pretty woman with out dated thinking.

On the Visa thing....our current political climate is just vile. 

2 hours ago, dfelt said:

 

I HONESTLY DO NOT want another depression, but the market, debt loads of countries and individuals leads me to see a correction that will be painful.

A trillion dollars a year in additional government debt....trade deficit is the worst it has ever been...consumer and student debt is as high as it has ever been...about that...yeah...

Staying debt free and living modestly myself. 

[Robert Hall]

1 hour ago, dfelt said:

I agree with you on my Son and he also admits he should have addressed things much sooner in the relationship. Love is blind.

My company has 400 job opening for the Seattle office and we cannot find enough engineers. Problem is that we have way too many students in liberal art degrees than in the sciences here in America. Getting an H1 Visa is much harder now and no profitable company is going to hire someone with the wrong skill set to just fill a job.

This is dated and I could not find newer info but clearly the US while a tochnological powerhouse does not lead the world in students graduating in the sciences.

https://www.businessinsider.com/most-technological-countries-lag-behind-in-science-2015-12

 

It just amazes me how ill-equipped for the real world it seems so many people are coming out of college today.. STEM is where it is at..has been that way for a long time.  and for the non-college bound, we have a severe shortage of people doing meaningful, practical trade work..we have got to have competent electricians, plumbers, welders, auto mechanics, HVAC people, etc in addition to cube dweller techies like myself to keep the world going...can't outsource everything to China or India...

[Drew Dowdell]

3 hours ago, dfelt said:

Last night my son told me that she had also told him that she will expect the family to go on a 2 week vacation some place nice around the world every year where she gets waited on. I had to laugh, I came to realize in the last year that her dad pampered her, but WOW, had no idea till my son left her and moved out on his own and we see him more just what all went on in that relationship. Pretty woman with out dated thinking.

Good riddance then. 

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

It just amazes me how ill-equipped for the real world it seems so many people are coming out of college today.. STEM is where it is at..has been that way for a long time.  and for the non-college bound, we have a severe shortage of people doing meaningful, practical trade work..we have got to have competent electricians, plumbers, welders, auto mechanics, HVAC people, etc in addition to cube dweller techies like myself to keep the world going...can't outsource everything to China or India...

Totally agree with you that STEM is where our school system needs to be focusing those that desire a 4yr degree and for those that do not want it, then the 12 month trade school and 2 to 5 years of apprenticeship as it teaches valuable job skills is so right.

Just imagine if we allowed people to come in where they signed a contract with the USA that they will go into a trade school or college for specific degrees and pay their taxes but get no credit for it as they get an education and prove themselves worthy of citizenship, then once graduated and work say 2 to 5 years you become full citizen with all rights and benefits of SS and Medicare.

We would get plenty of people who want a better life and will work hard.

[G. David Felt]

12 minutes ago, Drew Dowdell said:

Good riddance then. 

This is my son with his ex now Kay when he got his Jeep 2 years ago, just realized I do not have any more current picture. LOL.

He learned some very important life lessons and is focused on getting debt free again, hanging with his friends and working out. So over all her loss.

[balthazar]

9 hours ago, dfelt said:

Based on normal hammers being charged to the idiot defense department at $800 in the past, I ignore the inept leadership that is hurting this country and look at the bloated lazy growth of federal jobs and how people seem to want to do minimal effort for a paycheck.

...the market, debt loads of counteries and individuals leads me to see a correction that will be painful.

• From what I read recently, Seattle specifically is seeing an explosion of homelessness, but that's not necessarily reflected nationwide. I believe Seattle is a 'sanctuary city', isn't it?
• Has a 'correction' EVER reduced the debt? On the individual citizen level- it usually INCREASES it. Big Gov't is oblivious to controlling spending- boom or bust seems to have little effect on that.

Edited May 10, 2019 by balthazar

[ykX]

@dfelt  Jeep looks great

My friend just recently got 2018 GC High Altitude, black.  Looks good.

How is your son likes his so far?

Any issues?

[G. David Felt]

37 minutes ago, ykX said:

@dfelt  Jeep looks great

My friend just recently got 2018 GC High Altitude, black.  Looks good.

How is your son likes his so far?

Any issues?

Son loves it, drives it everywhere and has had zero issues. He informed me last night he is going to hold onto it long term as he approaches 3 years of ownership and is hitting almost 45,000 miles. Goes camping in it as he can fold down the back seat and lay flat with out folding up his legs.

Loves his jeep and says he will own another one when he is ready.

He was going to go black as he likes black auto's and his patriot he traded in to the dealer he bought here was black, but loves the rare Rhino color as you see black everywhere but not too many Rhino colors.

[ccap41]

On 5/7/2019 at 9:06 PM, dfelt said:

Cost of parking in Seattle has doubled in the last 2 years. Daily parking was $30 all day with $25 early bird parking. Now early bird parking is $55 and all day is $60, event parking for the stupid pro teams is now anywhere from $80 to $160.

Those numbers are insane. I rarely drive to work but our lot is $8 early bird and i think $12 if you miss the early bird, for all day. It jumps to $20 for games/concerts at the dome(where the Rams used to play). Prices don't jump for STL Cardinals games because it's too far away to hike the prices. 

[Robert Hall]

In 20+ years of working, only had to pay to park once...had to pay monthly at a downtown parking garage in Phoenix when I worked a contract at the City...but my contracting firm reimbursed me..was only like $50/month IIRC.  I'm used to working in suburban office parks for the most part.   Here in Cleveland I mostly Uber when I'm going to events downtown (dinner, plays, concerts, sports, etc).  

[G. David Felt]

2 hours ago, ccap41 said:

Those numbers are insane. I rarely drive to work but our lot is $8 early bird and i think $12 if you miss the early bird, for all day. It jumps to $20 for games/concerts at the dome(where the Rams used to play). Prices don't jump for STL Cardinals games because it's too far away to hike the prices. 

I have to wonder at what point people will say enough of crazy prices and stop going, but seems to be way to many crazy sport fans that are willing to pay those crazy prices and enough high tech workers who still will park in the parking garages even though the express busses are standing room only. Guess growth of a tech city.

[balthazar]

...

Daily parking was $30 all day with $25 early bird parking. Now early bird parking is $55 and all day is $60…

Gotta pay for the "municipal socialism" programs somehow. More to come in Seattle...