apple Forbes states this is the End of Apple!

[G. David Felt]

Whether you agree or disagree, Forbes is saying that  the data is showing an end to Apple as you know it. With Apples cheapest phone costing $1,149 today compared to when it debuted in 2007, the price you paid has soared over 700% in 12 years.

2002 was the last time Apple slashed forecasted earnings and the stock has been punished since then falling 35% since it's peak in November 2018. This erased $446 Billion in Shareholder value, the biggest wipe-out of wealth in a single stock ever since stock trading began.

Per Forbes, since 2001 Apple has had steady revenue growth and by this measure the business seems perfectly healthy. Looking under the hood is a different story all together. iPhone sales peaked in 2015 and to compare the completed 2018 year to 2015, Apple sold 14 million phones fewer.

Key pieces to take into account from this story is as follows: 

• 2010 iPhone 4 cost $199
• 2014 iPhone 6 cost $299
• 2019 iPhone cheapest model cost $1,149 a 500% price hike from 8 years ago.

Technology is supposed to be all about getting cheaper, yet Apple has done the opposite, reduced sales, but increased prices. Example of this is the TV business where years ago it cost thousands and thousands of dollars for a large flat-screen high definition TV and today you can get a 55 inch version from your local retailers for around $500. Cell phone prices have come down roughly 92% in contrast to Apples 500% increase. In 1984 Motorola sold their first cell phone for $4,000 and now the average price of a smartphone is $320 according to IDC research firm.

As Forbes states and I agree, it is amazing Apple has pulled this off and yet the future is not looking bright for them. Life-cycle disruption is coming from both China startups and Korea especially Samsung. 12 years ago research showed that only 120 million people had cell phones and today over 5 billion have cell phones.

An exploding growth market is reaching maturity and getting people to fork over $1,000 or even $1,500 dollars ever couple years for a new phone when equal quality products from other vendors at a fraction of the price is going to be hard to do. Apple has responded by announcing they would stop disclosing iPhone unit sales and they are going to no longer report average transaction price. Share holders deserve to know the facts of what is being shipped and prices per unit. iPhone generates 2/3 rds of Apples overall Sales.

Let that sink in that a publicly traded company is no longer telling it's investors how many phones it sells. With a stagnant product line and no real growth, Apples business is going no where under current leadership. If Apple was to cut prices to 2016 levels, it would have to sell 41 million additional phones to match 2018 revenue.

In 2007 Nokia was the Cell Phone King with over a Billion cell phones sold that year and the question was Can Anyone Catch the Cell Phone King? Nokia is only now attempting to start over from the ashes of the original company. Is Apple heading in that same direction?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/01/21/the-end-of-apple/#523ee1896dc0

[Drew Dowdell]

People are just trading their devices less often. This is going to be just as true for Samsung, but Samsung is much more diversified than Apple.

[Suaviloquent]

Yup pretty much. And even the bleeding edge innovation in this sector was pretty much hubris. Face ID and it’s competing face unlocks. Emojis or whatever that call those. Beauty modes on cameras. Notch. Bezeless. Nothing that really revolutionizes it.

 

[ykX]

How they claim that the cheapest iPhone is $1149 when iPhone XR is $750?

Today's journalism at its best.

But I agree, there is very little innovation last few years and people will keep their phones longer.   Samsung has cheap phones for countries where people can't afford expensive, top of the line technology phones.  I wonder though how much profit Samsung can get selling these phones.

Edited January 22, 2019 by ykX

[riviera74]

Apple's real problem is that they are pricing themselves out of the market when everyone else is offering models under $500.  I read an article where Apple had sold leftover stock of the iPhone SE for $249 brand new and they sold out within three days.  At a time where smartphones are ubiquitous and more people are getting their smartphone repaired rather than replaced, Apple chose a poor time to have a new phone START at $750 and up.

When I replaced my iPhone back in June, I picked up the 8 Plus rather than the iPhone X because the 8+ still has a few features that the X did not have. . . . and I saved some serious cash doing just that.  If the XR started at $500 and they kept making the SE at $250, Apple would not be in so much sales trouble.  Then again, Apple seems to expects all the services that come with an iPhone to buoy them in case iPhone sales really fall off a cliff.

[Suaviloquent]

Apple is in the same problem any lopsided market mix companies have. They didn't realize that the iPhone is the only product that people will buy independent of their respective ecosystem of tech. 

I have an iPhone, a Windows laptop, an Android tablet and a soon to be repurposed old PC to be turned into a Neverware Chromium - Linux based cloud PC. I have it all. But I mostly use GApps. 

Now if you have an iPhone you have options. It introduces people to Apple. If you have a Macbook tho - you want an iPhone. If you have a Mac, you want an iPhone. If you don't buy an iPhone, you won't buy a Macbook. Period.

 

So that's the thing. Their golden goose needs to be the best of the best. The standard of the world. Hmmmm where have I heard that before? Their new 'notch & science' theme... Blah blah blah

 

 

 

 

[Drew Dowdell]

1 hour ago, Suaviloquent said:

Apple is in the same problem any lopsided market mix companies have. They didn't realize that the iPhone is the only product that people will buy independent of their respective ecosystem of tech. 

I have an iPhone, a Windows laptop, an Android tablet and a soon to be repurposed old PC to be turned into a Neverware Chromium - Linux based cloud PC. I have it all. But I mostly use GApps. 

Now if you have an iPhone you have options. It introduces people to Apple. If you have a Macbook tho - you want an iPhone. If you have a Mac, you want an iPhone. If you don't buy an iPhone, you won't buy a Macbook. Period.

 

So that's the thing. Their golden goose needs to be the best of the best. The standard of the world. Hmmmm where have I heard that before? Their new 'notch & science' theme... Blah blah blah

 

I"m so fed up with Win10 I expect I'll replace it with a Macbook next time around... and with it go to iPhone

[Robert Hall]

I only use Windows for work..have a Windows 10 VM in my client's data center that I RDP into from my Mac laptop..I've been away from Windows at home for about 7 years now..avoiding it whenever possible..;)

Edited January 22, 2019 by Robert Hall

[G. David Felt]

1 hour ago, Drew Dowdell said:

I"m so fed up with Win10 I expect I'll replace it with a Macbook next time around... and with it go to iPhone

LOL, I feel that way every time I have to use the terrible Mac interface and trying to get it to do anything I really want. I love my Win10 laptop and desktop system.

I am curious what is it about Win10 that is making you so fed up?

1 hour ago, Robert Hall said:

I only use Windows for work..have a Windows 10 VM in my client's data center that I RDP into from my Mac laptop..I've been away from Windows at home for about 7 years now..avoiding it whenever possible..;)

LOL, I use a virtual Mac when I have to for my storage work and avoid the craziness of the interface whenever possible. Would rather have to work on a CentOS system than deal with Mac.

[Drew Dowdell]

52 minutes ago, dfelt said:

LOL, I feel that way every time I have to use the terrible Mac interface and trying to get it to do anything I really want. I love my Win10 laptop and desktop system.

I am curious what is it about Win10 that is making you so fed up?

LOL, I use a virtual Mac when I have to for my storage work and avoid the craziness of the interface whenever possible. Would rather have to work on a CentOS system than deal with Mac.

The MS apps for things like mail are terrible. Outlook sucks unless you're using an exchange server. Random slowdowns. Have to uninstall/reinstall apps to get them to work. The App store sucks so bad I don't even bother with it.  Terrible phone integration ... iPhone/Android... doesn't matter.  Terrible integration with other home devices. 

And overall, the interface just sucks. 

[Robert Hall]

Speaking of Microsoft products, I've been in online training all day and will be the rest of the week for a CMS (Content Management System) (Sitecore) that has plugins for development in Visual Studio w/ C#.   A bit of a change of pace for me (I'm used to Eclipse and Java and IBM Websphere development).   But my client is using this CMS for their public website currently, and would like me to get up to speed on it.....though a bit awkward to use MS dev tools after years away from them. 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Robert Hall

[riviera74]

2 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

The MS apps for things like mail are terrible. Outlook sucks unless you're using an exchange server. Random slowdowns. Have to uninstall/reinstall apps to get them to work. The App store sucks so bad I don't even bother with it.  Terrible phone integration ... iPhone/Android... doesn't matter.  Terrible integration with other home devices. 

And overall, the interface just sucks. 

I hear you on most of those complaints.  They were more valid on previous versions of Windows (like Windows 8 or XP or ME).  Personally, I find that Win 10 works really well on my desktop AND my notebook.  YMMV.

[G. David Felt]

4 hours ago, Drew Dowdell said:

The MS apps for things like mail are terrible. Outlook sucks unless you're using an exchange server. Random slowdowns. Have to uninstall/reinstall apps to get them to work. The App store sucks so bad I don't even bother with it.  Terrible phone integration ... iPhone/Android... doesn't matter.  Terrible integration with other home devices. 

And overall, the interface just sucks. 

Thank you, I can understand what you say as I have heard this from others too and yet with that I also have seen flawless use with crazy configurations.

For me at home, office 2016 working with my personal Frontier Unix mail just works, never a problem really. An occasional annoyance when they bounce the server as I have to close and open again outlook to connect, but everything else just works.

I will say that since at work Dell went to Office 365 globally, I really like it and have not had any of the normal quirks that show up in word, Excel, PowerPoint or any of the others. Office 365 on Windows 10 is just rock solid for the most part that I can think of right now.

Unlike many, I actually do not sync my phone to my computer. So keep them each isolated and am happy with how it all works.

[riviera74]

24 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Thank you, I can understand what you say as I have heard this from others too and yet with that I also have seen flawless use with crazy configurations.

For me at home, office 2016 working with my personal Frontier Unix mail just works, never a problem really. An occasional annoyance when they bounce the server as I have to close and open again outlook to connect, but everything else just works.

I will say that since at work Dell went to Office 365 globally, I really like it and have not had any of the normal quirks that show up in word, Excel, PowerPoint or any of the others. Office 365 on Windows 10 is just rock solid for the most part that I can think of right now.

Unlike many, I actually do not sync my phone to my computer. So keep them each isolated and am happy with how it all works.

Same here.  No need to mix Win 10 and Office 365 with an iPhone 8 Plus (at least not for me).