Industry News: Automakers Plan to Flood the Market with SUVs and Crossovers

[William Maley]

It is no secret that buyers are gobbling up SUVs and crossovers, nor is it that automakers are introducing new and redesigned models. Take a look at the New York Auto Show this week where a number a new models (Toyota RAV4 and Subaru Forester) and concepts (Lincoln Aviator) made their debut.

According to automotive consultancy firm LMC Automotive, there are currently 63 mainstream crossover and SUV models, and 53 luxury models. By 2023, LMC is projecting 90 models for both mainstream and luxury. But this prompts a question - how much is too much?

“I think everyone has read the same tea leaves - right now there seems to be insatiable demand,” said Cadillac president Johan de Nysschen to Reuters.

“Everyone is going into these segments with compelling new entries and that means there are going to be winners and there are going to be losers.”

Already, there are signs this boom could be heading downward. LMC Automotive is forecasting a slow growth for SUVs and crossovers in 2018 and continuing through 2025.

“There are still some legs left to grow in the SUV market, but growth is slowing and will eventually level off. This is a bright spot in the market, which is why everyone is flocking to it with new product,”  said Jeff Schuster, LMC’s senior vice president of forecasting.

A key reason comes down to the large number of SUV and crossovers that will be going off-lease and entering the market, proving a less expensive option for buyers. Cox Automotive forecasts that 40 percent of the roughly 4 million nearly new vehicles expected to come off lease this year will be SUVs and crossovers. The number is expected to rise to 44 percent.

“Now that you’re seeing more SUVs starting to come off lease, that will automatically put pressure on new SUV pricing,” said Karl Brauer, executive publisher forKelley Blue Book.

There are those who don't buy this argument though. Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting with AutoForecast Solutions says there is still room to grow if automakers dive into different niches such as sporty models and limited editions.

“The market is not yet saturated and there are all kinds of niches that have yet to be filled. We’re five or 10 years from even thinking about market saturation.”

Various automakers claim there is always more room for products, provided they can stand out.

“There are clearly a lot of entrants, but we are going to differentiate ourselves with a completely different look to our brand," said Lincoln president Joy Falotico at the New York Auto Show.

But Karl Brauer points out a simple fact: “Simple math suggests that you’ll have more models with lower volume.”

“You can’t have that many SUVs on the market and have all of them grow volume. Some of them are going to have to give,” explained Brauer.

Source: Reuters

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[smk4565]

I recommend every manufacturer make at least 10 crossovers.  Starting at 160 inches long and going up every 5 inches to 205 inches long.

[riviera74]

TEN? A maximum of FIVE per car marque will do.

[oldshurst442]

There is no amount of SUVs and CUVs that a car maker should have that we as posters could quantify. The market decides that. 

The amount is what the market demands.  If that means 5 max per brand or be it 10 max per brand. But there is no way that we could assess that as we dont know what kind of growth these crossovers are having. It seems to me that SMK's assumption of 10  is closer to the truth than that of Riviera's 5. In my opinion, crossovers are replacing sedans. In my opinion, crossovers ARE the new sedans. 

This is unfortunate for a guy like me who does not enjoy this type of vehicle.  This is why I have been silent lately in the forum. The news is about all kinds of new crossovers that were revealed at the NYC auto show. Be it the Lincoln Aviator or the Cadillac XT4 or the new RAV4 or Subaru. I only read the articles for the Cadillac and the Lincoln. Glanced over is more accurate. 

But there is a little light at the end of the tunnel...maybe.

Either sedans get super nichey and super finely tuned because now sedans are gonna be rare and only to be sold to enthusiasts. Therefore sport sedans are gonnna get really really good and really really sporty along the lines of a finely tuned sports car, which will be right up my alley...

Or, they are gonna be super super crappy and left to rot on the vine...

One niche of CUV or SUV, I think, will come about is the CUV or SUV that will have a trunk instead of a hatch...

 Cargo isolation, trunkification. Sport Utility Sedan. The SUS.

Probably slightly more lifted than the Legacy is now. Lifted slightly to resemble a CUV or SUV.

Kinda like the Eagle...if the Eagle Wagon 4 door and coupe was the true beginnings of the CUV, then Subaru might have stumbled upon the next big thing in the SUS...(Sport Utility Sedan and their cargo isolation, trunkification commercial.)

 

 

Edited March 29, 2018 by oldshurst442

[frogger]

S60 Cross Country?

[oldshurst442]

I guess!!!

Im no connoisseur of Volvos nor lifted sedans with all wheel drive or crossovers for that matter  so I did not even know this Volvo even existed!!! 

My Acura TL SH-AWD is a...sedan...with...all wheel drive. But she is hunkered down and she is marketed as a sports sedan. A corner-carving, family hauler that could be driven quite well in the snow, but more of the drifting in the snow kind rather than the going through it. 

With a name like cross-country, Im guessing this Volvo is marketed more of a plowing through type 4x4.

But yeah...I think the crossover craze will beget more and more Volvo Cross-Countries and Sport Utility Sedans. 

Edited March 29, 2018 by oldshurst442

[Robert Hall]

I hope we see more Sport Utility Coupes and Sport Utility Convertibles.  Perhaps AWD versions of the Mustang and Camaro.  Not under the radar like the Challenger GT, but lifted like the Volvo Cross Country, like modern Eagle coupes.   An AWD Challenger w/ Jeep-like ground clearance would be cool.   Not going to happen, but I'd like to see more bold, out-there ideas come to fruition rather than the same old, same old.. 

Edited March 30, 2018 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[smk4565]

I think the number of crossovers is nuts and the NY show was all about crossovers, yet people keep buying these things.  

One day the Corvette and Mustang will become crossovers to boost sales,  the marketing folks will think this is a good idea.

[riviera74]

3 hours ago, smk4565 said:

I think the number of crossovers is nuts and the NY show was all about crossovers, yet people keep buying these things.  

One day the Corvette and Mustang will become crossovers to boost sales,  the marketing folks will think this is a good idea.

There is NO WAY that GM or Ford will allow the Mustang or the Corvette to become crossovers.  For one thing, both of them sell as is; the same is true of the Camaro.  Secondly, the typical Corvette/Mustang/Camaro buyer IS NOT looking for a crossover at all.  Thirdly, why would anyone buy a car name that is NOT authentic to what people expect out of said vehicle?  Lastly, the crossover reminds me a lot of the SUV craze of 1991-2008.  Once gas prices spiked to $4-$5 a gallon, SUVs almost disappeared and CUVs filled in the gap (more efficiently). 

What could happen is that the hot sports sedan (think 300/Charger twins) or the hot sports coupe (see above) make a partial comeback because there will always be customers who do not want to be caught dead driving a crossover.  Now, FWD sedans and coupes are having a hard time selling because a lot of people want crossovers as a substitute for the bog standard FWD sedans.  These FWD sedans have been with us since at least 1972 and they ultimately replaced RWD sedans by 1992 with few exceptions.  The CUV might evolve a little more to meet different needs, just like Cubical said.  Nobody truly knows what will happen in 2030, in terms of auto trends or buying habits.  Either way, we should still keep watching.

[balthazar]

Parked next to a brand new toyoyo CHR (I think perhaps toyoyo was trying to spell 'CAR"- not sure) this morning at the convenience store.

If this is part of the flood of CUVs coming, man the pumps!
It was a staggeringly grotesque vehicle. I didn't know whether to gasp or burst out laughing. 

[ocnblu]

On 3/29/2018 at 4:54 PM, frogger said:

S60 Cross Country?

Somebody in Volvo media management is gonna get chastised for this photo.  Does anyone else notice the defect?  They forgot to punch out some of the holes in the grille!  LOL how does that even HAPPEN?

[Robert Hall]

Looks like most domestic brands will have between 5 and 7 CUVs and SUVs in the near term.  Will we hit peak CUV/SUV in 2020 or thereabouts?   Will the US automakers hop on the CUV coupe bandwagon? 

From the bottom to the top for each brand:

Ford:

Ecosport, Escape, Edge, Explorer, Expedition SWB and LWB.    With the Bronco in there somewhere.

Lincoln:

MKC, Nautilus, Aviator, Navigator SWB and LWB.     (I wonder what the MKC will be renamed to?  Capri would be good, was a long ago Lincoln name).

Chevy:

Trax, Equinox, Traverse, Tahoe, Suburban.   With the rumored Blazer in there somewhere. 

GMC:

Terrain, Acacia, Yukon, Yukon XL

Buick:

Encore, Envision, Enclave

Cadillac:

XT4, XT5, Escalade SWB and LWB.   With maybe an XT3 and XT7 coming?

Dodge:

Journey and Durango.   Will be interesting to see what comes for Dodge in the future...maybe a Ram based full-size?   A Journey replacement? 

Jeep:

Renegade, Compass, Cherokee, Grand Cherokee.  Plus the Wrangler in it's own niche, and maybe a smaller model for Europe, and the rumored Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer full sizers? 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[smk4565]

Cadillac needs at least XT1, XT2, XT3, XT4, XT5, XT6, XT7, XT8 to compete with BMW's X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X7 and likely future X8, and Audi's Q1, Q2, Q3, Q5, Q7, Q8 and rumored future Q4 and potential Q6.  

Buick should add the Rainier, a Tahoe based SUV plus a Bolt based crossover called Rendezvous.  And then turn the Lacrosse into a 4-door crossover coupe called the Lacrossover CC, and then do a convertible crossover based on the Equinox called the Velite.  That would give Buick 7 crossovers.

GMC needs a sub Terrain crossover, a Wrangler competitor, Bronco competitor, and at 2 crossover coupes and a 2-door sweeping roofline Yukon.

Chevy is adding the Blazer, they cancel the Spark, Volt and Bolt and replace all 3 with crossovers of equal size and powertrain.  The Impala can be turned into Chevy's crossover 4-coupe with retro styling, turn the Camaro into a performance crossover with a 500 hp V8 to take on the Alfa Romeo Stelvio.  That would add 6 more crossovers to the Chevy line.

Dodge and Chrysler it is too late for, Give Jeep a sub-Renegade SUV, rebabage the Journey and Durango to Jeep as the Liberty and Wagoneer, then add a Grand Wagoneer lux model, add a Jeep Commander sports crossover coupe based on the Stelvio or Levante.

[Robert Hall]

Another for Chevy could be a mid engined Corvette crossover sports car.  

[FAPTurbo]

6 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Somebody in Volvo media management is gonna get chastised for this photo.  Does anyone else notice the defect?  They forgot to punch out some of the holes in the grille!  LOL how does that even HAPPEN?

that’s the radar location, just more integrated than prior models:

[Robert Hall]

Looks like the newest generations of Volvos have figured out how to hide the radar behind the grille. 

 

[smk4565]

I am waiting for the Cadillac electric crossover line, XTE1, XTE2, XTE3, XTE4, XTE5, XTE6, or maybe it will be EXT1, EXT2, EXT3, EXT4, EXT5, EXT6.  One day they will make a car called the CTE.....

[ocnblu]

5 hours ago, FAPTurbo said:

that’s the radar location, just more integrated than prior models:

You thought I was serious?