Lincoln News: Rumorpile: Lincoln To Join Electrification Train In 2022

[William Maley]

Lincoln could be one of the next automakers to announce plans for electrifying their lineup. Reuters has learned from sources that Lincoln is planning to offer hybrid versions of all of their models beginning in 2022. One source said that the brand is also considering one or more electric-only models. This is a key to Lincoln's future in China where the country will be requiring automakers to sell a certain percentage of EVs.

Plans for Lincoln's electrification could happen as early as October 2nd, where Ford CEO Jim Hackett will update investors on the automaker's strategy. Sources said Lincoln has been working on this before Hackett became CEO.

A Ford spokesman declined to comment.

We already know that Ford is working on a hybrid variant of the Navigator and a plug-in version of the MKC that are expected to launch in 2019.

Source: Reuters

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[G. David Felt]

Very cool, this makes me excited to see what GM anounces this year.

[lengnert]

Well, it is the new wave.  I do hope, however, that manufacturers continue to improve on the internal combustion engine as there is still a lot to like their.

If I was to own a car that was an EV or hybrid... I would favor the hybrid.  I suppose that is the best of both worlds, as it were.

[smk4565]

Really they could do this now if they wanted, if they are just going to put th eMKZ hybrid powertrain into MKC, MKX and Continental.  Hopefully they do more than that though.  BMW just announced they are building 12 EV's by 2025, and Lincoln is considering 1 EV?  I don't think Ford cares much about Lincoln.

[ocnblu]

Electrified vehicles don't sell.  I do not blame these CEOs for dragging their feet... they want to sell vehicles.

[smk4565]

28 minutes ago, ocnblu said:

Electrified vehicles don't sell.  I do not blame these CEOs for dragging their feet... they want to sell vehicles.

They don't sell because most of them are crap.   Battery tech is expected to make another breakthrough in about 5 years that could bring EV prices way down.   

[balthazar]

15 minutes ago, smk4565 said:

Battery tech is expected to make another breakthrough in about 5 years that could bring EV prices way down.   

Let's say this cost breakthru actually happens.

If you think for one moment that with all the towering hype and endless press over EVs, that they are going to significantly lower prices on the CONSUMER end, you don't understand supply & demand. Sure, plug-ins are only 6-7% of the market and the hype is hyperbolic, but the trend (glacial as it is) is still there. Tesla's Model 3 400K pre-orders may be one of the largest EV market blunders we've yet seen.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

Let's say this cost breakthru actually happens.

If you think for one moment that with all the towering hype and endless press over EVs, that they are going to significantly lower prices on the CONSUMER end, you don't understand supply & demand. Sure, plug-ins are only 6-7% of the market and the hype is hyperbolic, but the trend (glacial as it is) is still there. Tesla's Model 3 400K pre-orders may be one of the largest EV market blunders we've yet seen.

Competition also drives price.  If batteries get cheaper, a Model S P100D could cost as much as a CTS-V, or a Model 3 could cost less than a 3-series with a gas engine.  Then more and more companies will put EV's out there.  I think it will happen in luxury segments first where performance and quite/NVH are more important.  Once you have a bunch of EV's there will be competition among them in price.  

The thing is when the tide turns it will turn fast.

[balthazar]

You have no evidence to support any sort of EV tide 'turning fast'. You do, however, have more evidence that it won't than you could lift over your head.

And you are still glossing over the disconnect that what the batteries cost the OEM doesn't automatically translate to what they're going to cost the consumer. Can you justify any scenario where an EV S-class starts at -say- $60K, ever?

This is an example of a brand... right now I'm looking a authorized dealer parts list and a '16 C300 sedan rear glass is listed at $875, and it's a very simple piece of barely convex glass. Perhaps MB is waiting for a 'fast turn' in glass technology that will allow them to only charge $200 for this $100 piece of glass. Maybe one day- automotive glass hasn't been around that long, after all.

Car makers aren't here to put money in your pocket. Once the publishing/opinion/social media world has the majority convinced that EVs are what you MUST buy, prices will never echo economies of scale realization on the OEM side.

[daves87rs]

5 hours ago, ocnblu said:

Electrified vehicles don't sell.  I do not blame these CEOs for dragging their feet... they want to sell vehicles.

I think they will...just in bits and pieces. I never see the gas engine going away, but there will be many choices to choose from. To be honest, I wouldn't mind having the best of both worlds on my commuter car. Now that fun car better be gas though.....

[smk4565]

21 hours ago, balthazar said:

You have no evidence to support any sort of EV tide 'turning fast'. You do, however, have more evidence that it won't than you could lift over your head.

And you are still glossing over the disconnect that what the batteries cost the OEM doesn't automatically translate to what they're going to cost the consumer. Can you justify any scenario where an EV S-class starts at -say- $60K, ever?

This is an example of a brand... right now I'm looking a authorized dealer parts list and a '16 C300 sedan rear glass is listed at $875, and it's a very simple piece of barely convex glass. Perhaps MB is waiting for a 'fast turn' in glass technology that will allow them to only charge $200 for this $100 piece of glass. Maybe one day- automotive glass hasn't been around that long, after all.

Car makers aren't here to put money in your pocket. Once the publishing/opinion/social media world has the majority convinced that EVs are what you MUST buy, prices will never echo economies of scale realization on the OEM side.

People once said the car wouldn't replace the horse either.

A $60k EV S-class makes no sense, it costs $100k now.  If they can do a $60k E-class EV then game one.

[balthazar]

B-b-but you said EV cars would become cheaper than ICE versions; less parts & 'amazing new cheap battery tech"- what changed your mind?

[smk4565]

I think the EV will cost similar to a gas car but be a better car.  Because the EV is going to be quieter, less maintenance, better acceleration, less pollution, cheaper to run, etc.

It is already starting, the new Leaf has 50% more range then the Leaf of 5 years ago and costs less.  Another generation and it will cost similar to an Altima another generation and it will cost similar to a Sentra and have 150 mile range. 

[balthazar]

Why would it cost less?

[Cmicasa the Great]

On 9/8/2017 at 8:43 PM, smk4565 said:

They don't sell because most of them are crap.   Battery tech is expected to make another breakthrough in about 5 years that could bring EV prices way down.   

They are hardly crap.. just untrusted like any new product by mainstream buyers. This still doesn't mean that every maker, particularly luxo makers who can charge more and get return of investment, don't have every vehicle carrying an EV or Hybrid. The truth is that they have the range situation at hand.. especially if they go the VOLTEC way.. acceleration times are handled.. as most of the EVs or Hybrids accelerate at normal car pace.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, Cmicasa the Great said:

They are hardly crap.. just untrusted like any new product by mainstream buyers. This still doesn't mean that every maker, particularly luxo makers who can charge more and get return of investment, don't have every vehicle carrying an EV or Hybrid. The truth is that they have the range situation at hand.. especially if they go the VOLTEC way.. acceleration times are handled.. as most of the EVs or Hybrids accelerate at normal car pace.

B250e, Spark EV, Focus Electric or Energi whatever it is, Golf EV, Soul EV, BMW i3 are crap for the price they ask, even the Bolt is smaller than a Chevy Sonic with Cruze level amenities for $40,000.   The Model S is the EV that is worth it and it sells.  But one day there will be lots of EV's worth the money, and then they will take over.  EV's do everything better than a gas engine except cost and range, and both of those are solved with better batteries.

[balthazar]

1 hour ago, smk4565 said:

...the Bolt is smaller than a Chevy Sonic with Cruze level amenities for $40,000.   The Model S is the EV that is worth it and it sells.

The Bolt ALSO sells. Model S is well established with 6 years under it's belt. Bolt just went nation-wide a week ago and it's already selling 80% of the Model S's numbers this year. By year end it'll be the #1 EV seller.

[smk4565]

1 hour ago, balthazar said:

The Bolt ALSO sells. Model S is well established with 6 years under it's belt. Bolt just went nation-wide a week ago and it's already selling 80% of the Model S's numbers this year. By year end it'll be the #1 EV seller.

The Bolt doesn't sell well for a $40,000 car, and doesn't sell well for a small Chevy.  The Model S sells really well for a $75-125,000 car.  You have to look at Model S volume vs something like a CT6 or Audi A8.    The Model 3 will sell very well for a $40,000 car.  That is what has to happen for EVs to sell and gain traction, is to start to outsell gas rivals.

[oldshurst442]

5 hours ago, smk4565 said:

The Bolt doesn't sell well for a $40,000 car, and doesn't sell well for a small Chevy.  The Model S sells really well for a $75-125,000 car.  You have to look at Model S volume vs something like a CT6 or Audi A8.    The Model 3 will sell very well for a $40,000 car.  That is what has to happen for EVs to sell and gain traction, is to start to outsell gas rivals.

 Balthy already addressed this...

But Ill put up a link...

http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/a12199461/chevrolet-bolt-outselling-other-evs/

 

 

Quote

 

The Chevrolet Bolt Is on Pace to Outsell Every Other Electric Car Except the Model S

 

It looks like the affordable EV offensive might be paying off for Chevy.

Chevrolet

 

 

By Bengt Halvorson

Sep 10, 2017

223

 

 

 

With its Chevrolet Bolt EV, General Motors opted to go big on battery capacity but keep the car small and relatively affordable. And the strategy appears to be paying off in sales.

GM said that it sold 12,249 Bolt EVs between December 2016—when the first deliveries were made in California—and August 30, 2017. Of those, 11,670 were sold since the beginning of 2017. That puts it on pace to outsell the Nissan Leaf and every other affordable electric car—a quick surge to the top of the charts, considering that availability was limited to certain regions until just now, when the automaker has announced that Bolt is finally available nationwide.

 

 

[balthazar]

6 hours ago, smk4565 said:

The Bolt doesn't sell well for a $40,000 car, and doesn't sell well for a small Chevy.  The Model S sells really well for a $75-125,000 car.  You have to look at Model S volume vs something like a CT6 or Audi A8.    The Model 3 will sell very well for a $40,000 car.  That is what has to happen for EVs to sell and gain traction, is to start to outsell gas rivals.

• Bolt is $30K out the door- not $40K.
• It's first & foremost a high range EV, not a 'small Chevy'- that's who's buying it; consumers who want an EV. Just about every article or op-ed piece I've seen is comparing it to the Tesla Model 3, not other $30K ICE hatches.
• Absolutely no one is buying the A8- it'll probably be killed off next year.
• Model 3's obstacle is getting production up, not finding buyers. Oh, and making a profit. If it turns out the Model 3 doesn't turn a profit, the company is going to have to declare bankruptcy.
• It'll be interesting to see the $37K Bolt vs. the $42-47K Model 3 from the viewpoint of EV shoppers / sales.

[smk4565]

Outselling other EV's isn't an accomplishment.  The market isn't only EVs.  Eventually the battery tech will get the cost down, and EV's will do better and I think replace gas cars all together.   I think this change over will happen sort of quick too, like 1 to 2 product cycles.

[smk4565]

2 minutes ago, balthazar said:

• Bolt is $30K out the door- not $40K.
• It's first & foremost a high range EV, not a 'small Chevy'- that's who's buying it; consumers who want an EV. Just about every article or op-ed piece I've seen is comparing it to the Tesla Model 3, not other $30K ICE hatches.
• Absolutely no one is buying the A8- it'll probably be killed off next year.
• Model 3's obstacle is getting production up, not finding buyers. Oh, and making a profit. If it turns out the Model 3 doesn't turn a profit, the company is going to have to declare bankruptcy.
• It'll be interesting to see the $37K Bolt vs. the $42-47K Model 3 from the viewpoint of EV shoppers / sales.

Until the tax credit runs out.   A Nissan Leaf is $22,000 out the door using that same logic.   And that is also assuming you qualify for a $7,500 tax credit.  

Tesla does have production issues, IF they can figure that out, they can be a force, if they can't they are screwed, jury is still out there.  

The problem EV's have and why I said most are crap, is you have to convince people that aren't shopping only for an EV to buy one.  You have to convince someone to buy a Bolt instead of a 3-series that has no range issues, and is a sportier car, or convince someone to buy the Bolt over a Buick Envision which is a larger, more cargo capacity, more luxurious car.  EVs won't survive if they only sell to people that despise gasoline and buy an EV for political/social reasons.

That is why the Tesla Model S works, it has acceleration that beats an M5 or even a Ferrari at half the price.  Tesla does a good job selling the Tesla image/lifestyle too, but that car has performance to attract buyers.  

I see the day when there is an electric Camaro with a 250 mile range and 0-60 in 4 seconds for $50k, and a Camaro SS with a V8 that is $50k and does 0-60 in 4 seconds.  And at that point, I think the EV will be chosen over the V8 and then the flood gates will open and every model will have an EV that is better than the old V6 or V8 counterparts.

[balthazar]

Outselling other EVs absolutely is an accomplishment- as you've stated- this is an upcoming segment, what with top end luxury and sports OEMs announcing EVs, OEM's announcing their entire production will switch over to EVs, articles EVERY DAY on EVs and entire countries announcing the future banning of ICEs (as China just did today). All the articles repeatedly comparing the Bolt & the Model 3 illustrated clearly how the fact that these are EVs is transending everything else. How do you think the Model 3 garnered 400K pre-orders when no production car was even shown?

Getting a solid leg up on everyone else in the EV segment is crucial to future success. Once "Model 3" and "Bolt" and "Leaf" become synonymous with 'EV' vehicles, everyone else that comes along later has to compete with that.

[balthazar]

Leaf is $23K after the fed rebate.... but it's not competitive with the Bolt due to half the range and half the power. Leaf also loses out to the Bolt in every other critical criteria; the Bolt is a much better/nicer car. Bolt is also a far nicer car with tremendously more range than the $44K BMW i3, is this people choosing a Chevy over a BMW, or a quality, high-range EV over a half-assed EV?

Edited September 11, 2017 by balthazar

[A Horse With No Name]

18 hours ago, balthazar said:

The Bolt ALSO sells. Model S is well established with 6 years under it's belt. Bolt just went nation-wide a week ago and it's already selling 80% of the Model S's numbers this year. By year end it'll be the #1 EV seller.

Bolt is a game changer.  As a guy who loved GM back in the 70's, its nice to see them pushing the envelope and back at the top of their game.

[ccap41]

13 hours ago, balthazar said:

• Bolt is $30K out the door- not $40K.

Where are you getting this price from? That's like a 12-13k discount before you get the tax credit. which would bring it to like 23k-ish at the end of the year(assuming you qualify for the maximum $7500)

[balthazar]

It's a baseline price including the rebate: $36,620 - 7,500 = 29,120 (plus delivery/etc).

I am aware that not everyone qualifies for the 7500, as it comes off your 1st year federal tax OWED and any balance doesn't carry over. On the other hand, there are a few accounting ways around that, plus select states offer a state rebate on top of the fed; in CO one can get up to $5K on top.

It's a generalization- just as on the last page where it was posted that the Model 3 is "$40K" when Musk stated it would sticker between $42 and 49K for a while; right now there is no $35K Model 3". And these rebates are running out fast for Tesla- the pro-rating of the rebate starts next year. Chevy is not as far into their 200K EV allowance yet.

[G. David Felt]

37 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

Where are you getting this price from? That's like a 12-13k discount before you get the tax credit. which would bring it to like 23k-ish at the end of the year(assuming you qualify for the maximum $7500)

Seems True Car has the average price between 33K and 35K, but you can clearly find new car dealerships in california that have them thousands less. I have found some with the base bolt 2-3 thousand off the MSRP. Yet that still leaves this auto around 23K with the tax break. Lots of options though.

[cp-the-nerd]

More irrelevant announcements about the distant future Lincoln product pipeline. In 2022, most luxury makers will have entirely fresh lineups compared to today.

You could literally say "Lincoln will have a sports car in 2022" and not even start designing it for another year, and yet that would be infinitely more exciting than the real announcement that they'll all have electric powertrains in 5 years. *Yawn.*

[ccap41]

43 minutes ago, dfelt said:

Seems True Car has the average price between 33K and 35K, but you can clearly find new car dealerships in california that have them thousands less. I have found some with the base bolt 2-3 thousand off the MSRP. Yet that still leaves this auto around 23K with the tax break. Lots of options though.

That makes much more sense.

The tax credit is definitely not something that will lower your out the door cost, unless you're supposed to bring your tax documents to the dealership and do your taxes there..but I have a feeling that is no the case and that you get that tax savings the following spring upon their tax submission.

[G. David Felt]

40 minutes ago, ccap41 said:

That makes much more sense.

The tax credit is definitely not something that will lower your out the door cost, unless you're supposed to bring your tax documents to the dealership and do your taxes there..but I have a feeling that is no the case and that you get that tax savings the following spring upon their tax submission.

One Item I forgot to mention and maybe this is where @balthazar is thinking is the california rebate too.

Fed is $7,500 rebate on taxes.

California is $2,500 cash for purchase of a BOLT. 

Full list of all auto's and Bikes that qualify for cash rebates.

https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/eligible-vehicles

This would tend to make the Bolt a $20,000 auto then or if a Premier edition about $30,000.

[ccap41]

That would be GREAT to get into a Bolt for 30k or even less. But doesn't the tax credit not effect the sale price? You'll still be paying that $7,500(max) for the vehicle but you'll get the credits come tax season? 

[balthazar]

^ Correct- you pay the car's price, you get the rebate taken off you federal taxes that fiscal year only.
It's 'up to $7500' but if your federal tax is -say- $5000, you only get $5000 off, that 1 year only.

I have not heard what the average rebate is amounting to (and I'm waiting to see folk complain these rebates only favor the rich) but from a consumer window shopping perspective; the general assumption is that they're going to see a $7500 savings.

This is where I'm watching Tesla closely- I believe a lot of people heard "$35K" and "7.5K off" and are figuring their "affordable" Model 3 is going to be around $28K. Meanwhile, the current car lists between $42K and $49K and the incentives for Tesla will start pro-rating early next year sometime (depending on the speed of 3 production). Now your $28K is leveling off somewhere in the upper 30's, likely.

[Drew Dowdell]

Lincoln already has electrification, you've been able to buy a Hybrid MKZ for 6 or 7 years now.

[G. David Felt]

17 minutes ago, balthazar said:

^ Correct- you pay the car's price, you get the rebate taken off you federal taxes that fiscal year only.
It's 'up to $7500' but if your federal tax is -say- $5000, you only get $5000 off, that 1 year only.

I have not heard what the average rebate is amounting to (and I'm waiting to see folk complain these rebates only favor the rich) but from a consumer window shopping perspective; the general assumption is that they're going to see a $7500 savings.

This is where I'm watching Tesla closely- I believe a lot of people heard "$35K" and "7.5K off" and are figuring their "affordable" Model 3 is going to be around $28K. Meanwhile, the current car lists between $42K and $49K and the incentives for Tesla will start pro-rating early next year sometime (depending on the speed of 3 production). Now your $28K is leveling off somewhere in the upper 30's, likely.

I am thinking people will see reduced rebates towards the end of this year. If Tesla Delivers on how many model 3 they build, it will hit based on S & X sales staying the same late Nov or early Dec and that will reduce down how much people will get to write off.