Autonomous Vehicles

[balthazar]

It's ALL been tried before; I'm convinced there is no new automotive tech concept that hasn't either been tried or researched, not in the last 25 years.

 

That said, I'm going to toss up a few other industry autonomous experiments up later today, as food for thought.

Edited August 7, 2017 by balthazar

[balthazar]

Apparently, and who knew (other than perhaps our own life-long tractor aficionado; ocnblu) that the number 1 leader in autonomous vehicles was John Deere:

www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/06/22/google-didnt-lead-the-self-driving-vehicle-revolution-john-deere-did/?utm_term=.57806ec2aaac

https://qz.com/1042343/after-trying-to-build-self-driving-tractors-for-more-than-20-years-john-deere-has-learned-a-hard-truth-about-autonomy/

There are obvious & numerous differences with an 'AD' tractor and an 'AD' auto [Autonomous Driving]. Briefly; tractors aren't transportation, they are tools. They also work almost exclusively on private land with near no obstacles/other vehicles. Still, the tech still requires an operator to be present.

A truly self-driving tractor would revolutionize the industry, allowing that individual to do other tasks instead of sitting there, basically captive. Not there yet, and even after 20 years of working on the tech. Perhaps soon.

[oldshurst442]

I had forgotten that the agriculture segment has been probing and exploring and actually being full on active in this autonomous driving realm.

One aspect that I know will NEVER overcome in this realm of autonomous driving was just confirmed by reading this from the Balthy's John Deere link:

Quote

A vexing problem that inhibits John Deere and self-driving carmakers from an easy path to autonomy is dust and other weather conditions. Not only does weather change how the vehicle should act in its environment, but it also reduces the accuracy of the sensors, Leibfried said. He says the solution might come in redundancy—more sensors

 

In a wintery environment where snow, slush, mud wreak havoc on the visibility of any cameras and the delicate circuitry of the sensors...

Where condensation also wreaks havoc on the camera lens and the salt to melt the snow also screws up and erodes any electrical contacts and messes up the conductivity....

Where the roads are covered in all that muck...

 

The cameras and sensors will NEVER be able to "see" anything in a scene like this where there are no perfect lanes for cars to travel and the cars themselves are riddled with that filth and to boot...autonomous cars will also slip and slide

(two cars slip and slide in that gif...)

 

So when all that mess as snow, ice and slush on our roads is clearly present...and there are NO PREDICTABLE AND CALCULATED VARIABLES TO PROGRAM the artificial intelligence and the sensors and cameras cant see and feel...how does autonomous driving succeed in that reality?

IT CANT AND IT WONT!!!

[Robert Hall]

The complexity of winter weather driving seems like it would be quite a challenge for autonomous systems.   That's why desert environments are a good first target for such systems.  

Edited August 7, 2017 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[balthazar]

Weather extremes are a legitimate engineering obstacle- one that has to nailed down before AD vehicles should be released to the general public.

- - - - -

Another area, perhaps even 'simpler' than AD tractors is autonomous trains.

https://www.wired.com/2013/04/why-arent-trains-autonomous/

There are, again, very real physics involved in full-scale implementation on the current iron rail network.
Other systems, such as mag lev, might address the prime obstacle in the above link.

[G. David Felt]

15 hours ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

The complexity of winter weather driving seems like it would be quite a challenge for autonomous systems.   That's why desert environments are a good first target for such systems.  

I can see the extreme heat waves causing issues for the cameras on the autonomous auto's.

[Robert Hall]

10 minutes ago, dfelt said:

I can see the extreme heat waves causing issues for the cameras on the autonomous auto's.

And haboobs/dust storms...   there are issues in every climate.  

[G. David Felt]

2 minutes ago, Cubical-aka-Moltar said:

And haboobs/dust storms...   there are issues in every climate.  

Be interesting to see how they handle tumbleweeds.  A storm of Tumbleweeds crossing the roads. Might just freak the little electrons out!   

[Robert Hall]

I know Uber does a lot of their autonomous vehicle testing in Arizona...I saw their Ford Fusions with the whirly navigation thingys on the roof pretty frequently in Scottsdale over the last few years.  Also GM with Chevy Bolts.  

[oldshurst442]

We all just acknowledged with our own anecdotes backed by Balthy's both links that autonomous driving engineering is a long ways off...especially with Balthy's both links as both links expose the debilitating weaknesses of autonomous driving.

Whether it be train tracks or fields...for the most part of an autonomous driving voyage in those scenarios, traffic of any kind is at a minimum and the very minute instance of interference renders the system vulnerable.

And in those scenarios let me remind ourselves...as with autopilot mode for airplanes up in the air, the two  variables that are constant and calculated is that the speed of the autonomous driving object remains the same for what....90% of the journey?

And that the other autonomous driving objects are known and well followed in the computer autonomous driving system before hand.

With cars...those two variables SEEM to be constant but as we know, there are a few more autonomous driving objects on the circuit than on a train track or field or up in the air and as we all know, because of those links, that life is never a perfect obstacle free journey.

I wanna know with what balls do these Silicon Valley douchebags have to impose such a hazardous thing upon us when agriculture and aerospace still has not perfected this and autonomous driving has been in these fields for 20 plus years. I think for the aerospace industry its closer to 40 years.

Modern Military radar systems could see several targets at once and deploy the necessary autonomous driving missiles to destroy targets all at once...and even then....not so precise...and even then...with a human in the pilot's seat.

It is said that the next generation of military jets are to be drones...but that is a good 20 years away...

Silicon Valley douchebags want to impose autonomous driving cars in a shorter time frame than airplanes....WTF???!!!

Edited August 8, 2017 by oldshurst442

[balthazar]

For the record, I think autonomous vehicles will, in a very limited scale, finally be OK'd legally & perform decently WRT safety. But the hype surrounding it is WAY out of proportion to the extent and most especially; the TIMELINE of logical implementation. The 24-hr news cycle/ forums/ internet/ blogosphere loves to talk 'futurism' but there are very real factors most of this skygazing overlooks, including like examples such as those linked above.

[G. David Felt]

August 21st will play hell with self driving cars too.  

[Robert Hall]

2 hours ago, dfelt said:

August 21st will play hell with self driving cars too.  

Ah, yeah..supposed to get 80% eclipse in Cleveland.   It's also my brother's birthday. 

[oldshurst442]

For the record, if I was not clear enough in my other posts, I dont think autonomous driving will

a) be released anytime soon

b) be all that safe anytime soon

because

1. autonomous driving, as discussed before,  is a long ways out before autonomous driving decisions made by artificial intelligence become rational enough to be released upon humanity

a) there arent enough examples and variables to program artificial intelligence, and there never will be even though Silicon Valley douches have gone ape shyte collecting all kinds of data the last 2-3-4-5 years.

b) aerospace industry auto pilot systems have collected all kinds of data the last 40 years...real crashes, experimented crashes, near misses, perfect flights all from that little black box only to refuse to implement full on auto-pilot on commercial airplanes....and we all know the traffic up in the air is not as nearly as congested.

c) LITIGATION

THIS IS THE BIGGEST HURDLE in my honest opinion MORE SO than inclement weather engineering hurdles. In the aerospace industry, sometimes an airplane crash is not so cut and dry to lay blame so was at fault, and in the aerospace industry, their are a lot more regulations for safety and maintenance to be followed and more or less, the airline industry follows quite closely.

Even the manufacturers of these aircraft are held accountable to the strictest possible degree regarding  manufacturing standards...

Who is to be responsible for infrastructure failure?

Quebec's roads are HORRIBLE

Michigan's roads are WORSE!!!

Just because autonomous driving exists....it does not mean pot holes will cease to exist...a pot hole screws up suspension systems and wheel ball joints and stuff...

The cities dont pay for civilian damages now...good luck with that going forward for autonomous driving.

Will we as citizens keep on agreeing on higher taxes for the infrastructure up keep?

 

We dont take care of our cars now...will the government IMPOSE safety and maintenance regulations on our vehicles as the FCC does with the aerospace industry?

I have NEVER heard of this talk regarding autonomous driving legalities...only about what crash avoidance decisions artificial intelligence talks about what decisions should be acceptable.

But I KNOW that MAINTENANCE is a HUGE problem regarding car crashes...

Brakes not being up to snuff...air bags being disabled on purpose or out right removed, ABS systems disabled, tires being bald...in the aerospace industry, all that is hardly an issue any more because of stricte regs...

In the trucking industry...there are safety and maintenance regs to follow and yet...even on this area...not very well regulated...

 

[oldshurst442]

All what I just said is WORSE for the car sharing idiocy that Silicon Valley douches also want to throw upon us.

The trucking industry is regulated, but not as strict as the aerospace industry...good luck with that on the owners of the would be car sharing industry.

ITS EXPENSIVE for the up keep of airplanes, trucks....CARS.

Also, in places like Arizona when the area is a dry climate and its safe for metals and metals dont rust...

In places like Quebec where the humidity itself corrodes shyte and not to mention the salt used to melt the ice and snow....a fleet of cars would not last long and would need to be replaced sooner...

THAT takes BILLIONS of dollars...on top of the maintenance costs...for just that 1 car sharing company. That does not sound like a very profitable business model unless the cost of usage is high....but what  consumer wants to part take in such an expensive service....might as well by a jalopy...and if its a PRIVATELY OWNED jalopy...are the autonomous driving systems in tip top condition?

Yeah....back to square one...

And who will enforce the privately owned jalopy owner to comply?

OK...there are rules in play as of now to take old cars off the road...

OK...as we know, electronics dont have to be that old to fail...so how will the inspections happen?

Cars that fail will be off our roads?

Good luck in telling people that that they wont be able to drive their 3 year old car because a sensor is fried.

[oldshurst442]

There is an autonomous driving crash...

The car had an under inflated tire but it hit a pot hole rendering the wheel loose prior to the accident but there was a recall on the steering...

Whose at fault?

Forensic science would probably solve that mystery...

Lawyers on the other hand will paint a different picture depending what fence that lawyer is on...

Autonomous driving...some how I dont think no-fault accident reports will fly with this...

[oldshurst442]

The ONLY way I see for autonomous driving to be implemented and succeed if its done on a CLOSED circuit. Yes...COMPLETELY closed from top to bottom left and right.

Like in an underground subway system.

And even then...on an UNDERGROUND SUBWAY SYSTEM WHERE THE TRAIN IS ON A TRACK...

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/driving-montreals-newest-metro-azur-is-harder-than-it-looks

Quote

 

It has been more than 30 years since the STM purchased new trains, and much of the technology has changed, Fontaine said. Newer trains can give drivers a diagnostic readout when something goes wrong. They also have cameras so they can show drivers the inside of each car. All that information can be hard to decipher, Fontaine said, and can be a lot to take in for drivers used to the older trains.

“It’s different for operators to have three computer screens in front of them,” she said. “The train really speaks to them, so they have to learn to consult the different screens to diagnose the problem.”

Like the old trains, however, the new trains have an autopilot that stops at the right spot in the station and adjusts its speed and braking distance based on how many people are on the train, as calculated by the weight of the cars.

“It’s definitely very autonomous, but there are times when you have to drive it manually,” Fontaine said.

She added some drivers prefer to operate the train manually most of the time, while others prefer to keep it on automatic mode.

 

 

[G. David Felt]

20 minutes ago, oldshurst442 said:

The ONLY way I see for autonomous driving to be implemented and succeed if its done on a CLOSED circuit. Yes...COMPLETELY closed from top to bottom left and right.

Like in an underground subway system.

And even then...on an UNDERGROUND SUBWAY SYSTEM WHERE THE TRAIN IS ON A TRACK...

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/driving-montreals-newest-metro-azur-is-harder-than-it-looks

Sounds like the Hyper Loop would serve the people proud!

[oldshurst442]

Well, not all is doom and gloom.

It seems that in the mining industry...its flourishing

 

https://qz.com/874589/rio-tinto-is-using-self-driving-416-ton-trucks-to-haul-raw-materials-around-australia/

 

http://www.mining.com/canadian-oil-sands-giant-testing-autonomous-haul-trucks/

 

http://www.equipmentworld.com/how-cat-is-using-the-793f-haul-truck-to-bring-automation-to-more-machines/

Edited August 8, 2017 by oldshurst442