Tesla Model 3 to Debut End of March, Production Late 2016

[G. David Felt]

G. David Felt
Staff Writer Alternative Energy - www.CheersandGears.com

 

Tesla Model 3 to Debut End of March, Production Late 2016

 

Green Car Report is reporting that the first images of the Model 3 will be shown at a Debut late in March. Tesla CEO in France for a Tesla Owners Convention says it could be only a picture or two, that they will show the real thing closer to production or release for sale. Yet many have stated that Tesla has been known to surprise people with new production auto's.

 

GM with it's Chevy Bolt 3 going into production and availability coming up at dealership has put pressure on Tesla to finally deliver on the Model 3. Tusk has stated it will be a $30,000 auto with Federal Incentives and a 200 mile range. This puts it actual selling price at $37,500 like the BOLT.

 

When asked about further details he had no comment.

 

Green Car is also reporting that there are rumors of higher capacity batteries and more powerful motors to upgrade to that would push the Model 3 car price up maybe as high as $50,000.

 

What are your thoughts, can it be done? Will Tesla after years of delay finally deliver? Is GM finally putting pressure on Little Tesla?

 

Sound Off.

[Suaviloquent]

Tesla has a different sales channel.

 

One thing - Tesla has a major capacity issue - which they are really trying to get sorted. 

 

I honestly don't see how the Bolt will come as-is fully loaded at its base price that has been much talked about either.

 

No way are you getting the Cadillac through-view mirror or all the safety tech in that base price of the Bolt.

 

I see the cars really being well differentiated. The Model S looks fantastic, and the Bolt looks like any other small hatchback - it really reminds me of a Honda Fit.

 

And being the car it is, I don't think buying a Bolt will be as simple as just going to the neighborhood dealer expecting to drive out the same day. You're going to wait for the order to come in. So, I hardly see how GM can claim substantially faster delivery times.

 

Tesla is a growing company going against giants. Yeah, they're having delays, but they're doing things which are forcing the bigger guys to react. In a vacuum, I'd say GM would win entirely. But there's still only a handful of players. The electric vehicle market is not as competitive as the other segments. There's still plenty of room for others to join. 

 

What Tesla has is its superiority in customer experiences. And it's been fleshed out with their cult like following.

 

Ask anyone my age, when you mention Tesla, they aspire to own one. I rarely see such aspirations for any other manufacturer or brand of automobile in the incoming demographic that will be rising to majority of sales in the coming years.

[El Kabong]

They have different configurations-the Bolt is more of a tall-wagon people mover-but I think that the market segment is all Chevy's.

[Suaviloquent]

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition. 

[G. David Felt]

All very interesting and fine points. I will take exception with your comment Suaviloquent that the Tesla looks fantastic, Tesla looks like all other Generic Jelly Bean Cars. It is a cool study in EV technology, but I would not say it looks fantastic. Comparing the Tesla, Fisker Karma and Bolt, you have designs that are clearly different. Fisker is a better comparison to Tesla and I take a Fisker over a Tesla in Looks. Bolt is a CUV style and so really you cannot compare it.

 

 

Chevy Bolt also is Starting at $37,500 so there is no telling what you can add to the auto and achieve yet.

 

Interesting find is on the Green Car Report that did an in depth story on GM and LG. While GM designed and engineered most of the BOLT, they did it in working with LG testing the BOLT all over the world and making sure the BOLT is a Global auto from day one. So the Partner Ship to research Electric auto design was signed and started in August 2011. The Goal according to then GM CEO Dan Akerson and LG CEO Juno Cho was to create a EV car that could replace a gas auto.

 

To Quote Green Car Reports the following was done by the two companies:

 

"GM designed the electric traction motor and the battery-control system, was responsible for all integration of the powertrain into the vehicle itself, and validated all systems."

 

"LG Chem--which supplies lithium-ion cells from Holland, Michigan, for the Chevrolet Volt and Spark EV, and the Cadillac ELR and CT6 Plug-In Hybrid--designed, engineered, and tested the Bolt EV's battery system to performance and packaging specifications supplied by GM."

 

The story has much more details that are exciting to read and the best part was at the end when GM states they expect to have BOLT deliveries begin shipping to dealers in December 2016. The BOLT is expected to be on lots, not a small special order auto, but on lots for people to touch, look at drive and experience.

 

I think this is one of the times that GM has got ahead of the game and is a threat to Tesla. Tesla really does see GM BOLT as a threat to them if they cannot deliver a Model 3 soon.

 

On top of this is the story that broke on CNN about Tusks Ego and his piss poor response to the delays in delivering the Model X. He cancels a customers order due to the customers tweet that was critical of the Model X launch. Story here.

[ccap41]

This is actually quite exciting to know an affordable Tesla is closer than I thought. With that price range I could see myself seriously considering something like this in the next few years as a daily, why not? Have something like this as a daily, and something powered by 100% petrol as a secondary. I'm glad Tesla's affordable car is almost here.

 

Anybody know about how large/small this will be?  

[G. David Felt]

This is actually quite exciting to know an affordable Tesla is closer than I thought. With that price range I could see myself seriously considering something like this in the next few years as a daily, why not? Have something like this as a daily, and something powered by 100% petrol as a secondary. I'm glad Tesla's affordable car is almost here.

 

Anybody know about how large/small this will be?  

End of March Tusk has planned to show off the auto even if only in pictures and give more details about it. Hope it is not the same ugly profile of the S model. They really need something a bit more exciting.

[ccap41]

 

This is actually quite exciting to know an affordable Tesla is closer than I thought. With that price range I could see myself seriously considering something like this in the next few years as a daily, why not? Have something like this as a daily, and something powered by 100% petrol as a secondary. I'm glad Tesla's affordable car is almost here.

 

Anybody know about how large/small this will be?  

End of March Tusk has planned to show off the auto even if only in pictures and give more details about it. Hope it is not the same ugly profile of the S model. They really need something a bit more exciting.

 

So really no clue on the size of it then..? Dang.

 

I like the Model S's looks but they need a little change because a "new" car that is already 5(?) years old won't cut it, imo. I think "exciting" to them would be a low aero drag coeficient..lol..but seriously. 

[El Kabong]

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

[G. David Felt]

 

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

Agree, I see posts that Tusk is excited to give more details and pictures of the Model 3 but expects production to start in 2 years or so once capacity at his mega battery plant in Reno is up to speed. This just proves that Tesla will fail to deliver and GM will gain market share with their BOLT as well as Hyundia with the Inoq that is coming out next year also. I think Tesla is going to be really hurting by the time they actually get the Model X and Model 3 produced and delivered.

[FAPTurbo]

Tusk has stated it will be a $30,000 auto with Federal Incentives and a 200 mile range.

On top of this is the story that broke on CNN about Tusks Ego

End of March Tusk has planned to show off the auto

Agree, I see posts that Tusk is excited

Tusk

Why?

[Intrepidation]

Either:

 

Spelling was never a strong suit.

 

or

 

Really, and I mean really, poor attempt to look WITTY AND COOL ON THE INTERNET. #doingitwrong.

[Suaviloquent]

All very interesting and fine points. I will take exception with your comment Suaviloquent that the Tesla looks fantastic, Tesla looks like all other Generic Jelly Bean Cars. It is a cool study in EV technology, but I would not say it looks fantastic. Comparing the Tesla, Fisker Karma and Bolt, you have designs that are clearly different. Fisker is a better comparison to Tesla and I take a Fisker over a Tesla in Looks. Bolt is a CUV style and so really you cannot compare it.

 

2015_tesla_model_s_australia_11-1210-1400x788.jpg

Fisker_Karma_INferno_PaintReduced.jpg

Chevrolet-Bolt-2.jpg

 

Chevy Bolt also is Starting at $37,500 so there is no telling what you can add to the auto and achieve yet.

 

Interesting find is on the Green Car Report that did an in depth story on GM and LG. While GM designed and engineered most of the BOLT, they did it in working with LG testing the BOLT all over the world and making sure the BOLT is a Global auto from day one. So the Partner Ship to research Electric auto design was signed and started in August 2011. The Goal according to then GM CEO Dan Akerson and LG CEO Juno Cho was to create a EV car that could replace a gas auto.

 

To Quote Green Car Reports the following was done by the two companies:

 

"GM designed the electric traction motor and the battery-control system, was responsible for all integration of the powertrain into the vehicle itself, and validated all systems."

 

"LG Chem--which supplies lithium-ion cells from Holland, Michigan, for the Chevrolet Volt and Spark EV, and the Cadillac ELR and CT6 Plug-In Hybrid--designed, engineered, and tested the Bolt EV's battery system to performance and packaging specifications supplied by GM."

 

The story has much more details that are exciting to read and the best part was at the end when GM states they expect to have BOLT deliveries begin shipping to dealers in December 2016. The BOLT is expected to be on lots, not a small special order auto, but on lots for people to touch, look at drive and experience.

 

I think this is one of the times that GM has got ahead of the game and is a threat to Tesla. Tesla really does see GM BOLT as a threat to them if they cannot deliver a Model 3 soon.

 

On top of this is the story that broke on CNN about Tusks Ego and his piss poor response to the delays in delivering the Model X. He cancels a customers order due to the customers tweet that was critical of the Model X launch. Story here.

 

Okay so you're salient to GM's PR fluff... when I'm not mentioning any of that at all.

 

PR fluff is fluff.

 

Gm has yet to even outsell a conventional EV, the Nissan Leaf with their Volt - the EV killer of all vehicles.

 

I'm not holding my breath for GM to gain any significant market share in the EV market, none more than their current market share at this point.

 

DFelt, you have your opinion on styling, but the Model S is atleast not a bloated hatchback like the Bolt. 

[Suaviloquent]

 

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

 

No you're just heavily cheering for GM. 

 

The new market is heavily competitive. There's no protection for domestic makes from the foreign competition. GM will not gain any advantage, especially if gas prices fail to cooperate.

 

I can for sure give GM a pity point for head a start of a few hundred to a couple thousand in sales. 

 

Pony cars sold in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions in the first few years they came out. That isn't going to happen for electric vehicles. 

 

The Volt was meant to transform GM's alternative vehicle footprint. It did in a sense, but now it's in dire threat by another Chevy, and by making a conventional Malibu hybrid - the Volt will be in even more scrutiny.

 

Even the famed Prius is no longer going to be the top-seller Toyota as the company predicted.

 

GM isn't going to win here. No one will, not at first. And because of inertia and bounded rationality, I can easily bet ham over fist that people will definitely wait just a few months more to get the Model 3.

[FAPTurbo]

#doingitwrong.

[El Kabong]

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

No you're just heavily cheering for GM. 

 

The new market is heavily competitive. There's no protection for domestic makes from the foreign competition. GM will not gain any advantage, especially if gas prices fail to cooperate.

 

I can for sure give GM a pity point for head a start of a few hundred to a couple thousand in sales. 

 

Pony cars sold in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions in the first few years they came out. That isn't going to happen for electric vehicles. 

 

The Volt was meant to transform GM's alternative vehicle footprint. It did in a sense, but now it's in dire threat by another Chevy, and by making a conventional Malibu hybrid - the Volt will be in even more scrutiny.

 

Even the famed Prius is no longer going to be the top-seller Toyota as the company predicted.

 

GM isn't going to win here. No one will, not at first. And because of inertia and bounded rationality, I can easily bet ham over fist that people will definitely wait just a few months more to get the Model 3.

So anyways, go see my new thread on the subject and discover why I believe what I believe.

Because Elon Musk admitted it himself.

[Suaviloquent]

 

 

 

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

No you're just heavily cheering for GM. 

 

The new market is heavily competitive. There's no protection for domestic makes from the foreign competition. GM will not gain any advantage, especially if gas prices fail to cooperate.

 

I can for sure give GM a pity point for head a start of a few hundred to a couple thousand in sales. 

 

Pony cars sold in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions in the first few years they came out. That isn't going to happen for electric vehicles. 

 

The Volt was meant to transform GM's alternative vehicle footprint. It did in a sense, but now it's in dire threat by another Chevy, and by making a conventional Malibu hybrid - the Volt will be in even more scrutiny.

 

Even the famed Prius is no longer going to be the top-seller Toyota as the company predicted.

 

GM isn't going to win here. No one will, not at first. And because of inertia and bounded rationality, I can easily bet ham over fist that people will definitely wait just a few months more to get the Model 3.

So anyways, go see my new thread on the subject and discover why I believe what I believe.

Because Elon Musk admitted it himself.

 

 

Uh, even incumbent automakers make some pretty stupid mistakes (read : ELR), but except here the problem is that Tesla's Model X is still sold-out.

 

And yeah, they had an engineering gaffle. But then again, it's the only production SUV ever made that has Gullwing doors and a panoramic windshield as STANDARD equipment.

[El Kabong]

Like I said: rookies building cars, using an R&D model that doesn't exactly work well with cars.

But by all means go to my thread on the issue and read the article I posted.

Edited February 5, 2016 by El Kabong

[G. David Felt]

 

 

Why?

 

 

We'll take drugs after major surgery and try to remember the correct name. Musk, Tusk, all the same for an Ego Centric man.

[G. David Felt]

 

 

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

 

No you're just heavily cheering for GM. 

 

The new market is heavily competitive. There's no protection for domestic makes from the foreign competition. GM will not gain any advantage, especially if gas prices fail to cooperate.

 

I can for sure give GM a pity point for head a start of a few hundred to a couple thousand in sales. 

 

Pony cars sold in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions in the first few years they came out. That isn't going to happen for electric vehicles. 

 

The Volt was meant to transform GM's alternative vehicle footprint. It did in a sense, but now it's in dire threat by another Chevy, and by making a conventional Malibu hybrid - the Volt will be in even more scrutiny.

 

Even the famed Prius is no longer going to be the top-seller Toyota as the company predicted.

 

GM isn't going to win here. No one will, not at first. And because of inertia and bounded rationality, I can easily bet ham over fist that people will definitely wait just a few months more to get the Model 3.

 

 

Your wrong, Musk says that based on the upcoming get excited roll out of pictures and more details at the end of March it will then be 1-2 years to get the Model 3 to market. Bolt will be on the market for that length of time and probably get a refresh. Tesla is hurting and I doubt this will save them before someone else, probably a Chinese company will buy them up.

[G. David Felt]

 

 

 

 

It's about the same as someone saying the minivan market would be permanently Dodge/Plymouth's because of the first caravan.

 

Or the same as saying that the Mustang would always reign supreme. 

 

Nothing is guaranteed. The Bolt is a great vehicle. But that's mostly because electric vehicles are fundamentally superior in every aspect, expect driving range to gasoline cars. And that is quickly changing. Putting a battery pack in a sub-frame sandwich, having the electric motors placed next to the axle for desired drive-train layout, and ease of packaging, that is nothing new.

 

The Model 3 will be rear wheel drive. The BMW 3 Series or Cadillac ATS may have similar driving ranges to say a Honda Fit or Ford Focus hatchback.

 

But I'm never going to confuse which cars are purpose built for more than just being excellent compact cars for every day driving. Don't get me wrong, I want the Bolt to succeed, but it's just not the end of the story.

 

The Bolt might add some decent incremental sales for Chevy. The Model 3 could easily double or triple Tesla's sales. But Tesla at the end of the day is not company about sales as much as just the true champion of electric cars. They don't have gasoline cars that they can assign overhead to in their production facilities. They don't have high turnover of gasoline cars to make dealerships viable.

 

So they are forced to take the task of manufacturing, distributing and then getting the cars in the hands of customers in a novel, but just really simple way.

 

This is what happens. A new-comer shakes up the industry and the incumbents gritting their teeth finally muster something worthy as competition.

The problem with your counter examples is that they precisely prove my point. Chrysler DID own the minivan segment for nearly a decade, and Ford didn't relinquish its ponycar sales dominance for a long time either.

GM will get to market first, with way more experience building cars and a dealer network more than up to the task of moving cars in the required numbers.

The Tesla? Debut delays and troubled launch of current product are both very troubling signs. Their insistence on fighting legal battles to sell cars in Michigan will just wear them down even more.

They're in huge trouble.

 

No you're just heavily cheering for GM. 

 

The new market is heavily competitive. There's no protection for domestic makes from the foreign competition. GM will not gain any advantage, especially if gas prices fail to cooperate.

 

I can for sure give GM a pity point for head a start of a few hundred to a couple thousand in sales. 

 

Pony cars sold in the hundreds of thousands, in the millions in the first few years they came out. That isn't going to happen for electric vehicles. 

 

The Volt was meant to transform GM's alternative vehicle footprint. It did in a sense, but now it's in dire threat by another Chevy, and by making a conventional Malibu hybrid - the Volt will be in even more scrutiny.

 

Even the famed Prius is no longer going to be the top-seller Toyota as the company predicted.

 

GM isn't going to win here. No one will, not at first. And because of inertia and bounded rationality, I can easily bet ham over fist that people will definitely wait just a few months more to get the Model 3.

So anyways, go see my new thread on the subject and discover why I believe what I believe.

Because Elon Musk admitted it himself.

 

 

Uh, even incumbent automakers make some pretty stupid mistakes (read : ELR), but except here the problem is that Tesla's Model X is still sold-out.

 

And yeah, they had an engineering gaffle. But then again, it's the only production SUV ever made that has Gullwing doors and a panoramic windshield as STANDARD equipment.

 

 

Have they started to really produce yet and deliver to customers? I have not heard of any production yet or deliveries. 

[Robert Hall]

I think the Model X is in production now..an acquaintance in Silicon Valley said Tesla contacted him last week and told him his preordered car would be delivered in early March..

[Suaviloquent]

DFelt,

 

all that talk about Gm sourcing its batteries from South Korea...

 

You know what I will just put it out there that Tesla of all makes - the smallest of all of them is the one that will be manufacturing batteries in America of all places.

 

You know what? GM could have easily been the company to do something like that. The whole vertical integration to have complete control over the product. 

 

But you know what? Tesla doesn't need to succeed in traditional means. The company can go bust for all I care. However, they will really only go bust if a lot of automakers jump ship and go to electric vehicles permanently, and of course, like Tesla pursue means to produce batteries cheaply and with the least environmental impact. Which I hope they do, for the sake of the planet.

[Robert Hall]

I've long found Tesla interesting as a Silicon Valley technology company, more than a car company.  Batteries, control systems, etc are what makes them very interesting..

[G. David Felt]

DFelt,

 

all that talk about Gm sourcing its batteries from South Korea...

 

You know what I will just put it out there that Tesla of all makes - the smallest of all of them is the one that will be manufacturing batteries in America of all places.

 

You know what? GM could have easily been the company to do something like that. The whole vertical integration to have complete control over the product. 

 

But you know what? Tesla doesn't need to succeed in traditional means. The company can go bust for all I care. However, they will really only go bust if a lot of automakers jump ship and go to electric vehicles permanently, and of course, like Tesla pursue means to produce batteries cheaply and with the least environmental impact. Which I hope they do, for the sake of the planet.

Yet Tesla Does NOT make batteries yet, Panasonic does for them and is the one who is investing with them in the giga factory that will make them for Tesla. LG is making the GM batteries for them in America to the Spec that GM designed them already what Panasonic will be doing for Tesla.

[Suaviloquent]

Uh, it's been widely publicized that the Bolt EV's batteries will be made in South Korea. 

 

Who cares if it;s Panasonic or Tesla or LG?

 

I want the batteries to be assembled in North America.

[regfootball]

Model 3 if it's RWD means it won't take mass appeal. I can see where an electric may work well that way. But the FWD configuration is a mass market mainstay and RWD cars are outside of that. Bolt is a FWD small crossover hatch the combo platter which is hot.

All Volt needs to do is up its battery range to 150-200 miles and it would define the everyday car situation for those that periodically take trips etc. Chevy's next car should be a Malibu sized volt. Malibu hybrid doesn't have the plug in.

Charging infrastructure won't be set up for twenty years min so full electrics won't be practical for most of the population for quite some time.

Model 3 is vapor ware like the elio anyways.

Edited February 6, 2016 by regfootball

[Suaviloquent]

The Model S is RWD and yet has excellent packaging efficiency.

 

Electric cars don't have the same packaging concerns as an ICE powered car.

 

Besides, the Model X is also RWD, and have you seen how cavernous it is? Or the frunk?

 

Ultimately, people don't care which wheels are the drive wheels. 

 

The Bolt doesn't have mass appeal in the traditional sense either. Like really, does anyone expect the Bolt to sell in similar numbers of units as a Malibu? People talk of the Bolt being the second coming of Jesus, and you know what it might have a competent range... but you're not getting Cadillac levels of tech on the base model either. I expect the Bolt fully loaded to stop at around $50,000 before incentives. So it's not going to be an insignificant chunk of change either. 

 

I don't care really what anyone thinks about the issue of looks, the Bolt looks like a mash-up of a Honda Fit and Chevy Trax. Neither of which are beautiful cars, and the Bolt can't even be called a crossover, because you can't get AWD. 

 

So, the only thing the Bolt has going for it is a competent range, and some nice techy options. As far as looks go, you know it's a lumpy dumpling like how the Nissan Leaf is. Nothing standout. No design that is worthy of COTY type of award. Even the previous gen Volt atleast looks decent. And we're talking about a car, that will have a Nissan Leaf with 200 miles of range bearing down its neck too, and the Leaf has consistently outsold the Volt for two years in a row.

[ocnblu]

Please explain your assertion that the Tesla Model S has "excellent packaging efficiency".

[smk4565]

Please explain your assertion that the Tesla Model S has "excellent packaging efficiency".

It is sedan with 7 seats.  That is pretty impressive.

 

I think Tesla is onto good concept.  Sleek looking, sort of futuristic cars, with incredible performance.  And you have the green benefits, and none of the maintenance of an ICE.  However, they need a broader product line and economies of scale.  They have talked about Model 3 for years, and there is still nothing, at some point you actually have to deliver the product.

[ocnblu]

Yes I know, I remember the photo of police pulling over a Model S driver because he was being cruel to children by having them ride in the third row.

Edited February 6, 2016 by ocnblu

[Suaviloquent]

The model S has the combined cargo volume equivalent to many midsize SUVs like Ford Egde or Hyundai Santa FE.

 

It has a hatch instead of a trunk, and the front storage is just a bonus. 

[regfootball]

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

[Suaviloquent]

All Tesla have available awd, and the Model X is AWD only.

[Robert Hall]

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

You have this weird fixation on the 'mainstream'....F the mainstream, Tesla will be going after the entry lux market with the 3, like the 3 series, C-class, ATS, IS, etc...which are all RWD w/ available AWD...

[Robert Hall]

I do wonder when the German big 3 will have full electric versions of their compact and midsize sedans on sale..then there will be a credible threat to Tesla's growth..

Edited February 6, 2016 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[Suaviloquent]

Porsche's the only one to double-down and they're going for something before 2020. I guess it'll be a 2021 MY sold in late 2020.

 

All Tesla has to do is to remain very differentiated.

 

A lot of companies right now, other than the top-end are making highly substitutable boxes on four wheels. You really have to screw yourself over to get a bad choice in the compact crossover segment, for example. Or look at the midsize sedan segment. The only real reason why I'd say to stay away from the 200 is because I would stay it's a legitimate concern that this specific car doesn't have a future viability and parts may become hard to source in the future. 

 

The thing is, Tesla's core buyer is probably extreme disloyal to any brand in particular, and would only defect from Tesla if they really couldn't deliver the product as the entire customer experience.

 

For example, it's going to take multiple large automakers to all agree to build vehicles to a common standard and offer something like Tesla's supercharger network. And for the next 5 years, I bet even if they could, it wouldn't be free. 

[ocnblu]

I thought you guys would love to see the raw power of electrification for yourselves.  Enjoy! 

 

 

 

 

 

1.2 RWHP Powerwheels

World record 1.2 rwhp for power wheel. Her reaction when it showed up on the dyno was that of a true gearhead!More power than a HONDA!

Posted by Speed Society on Saturday, February 6, 2016

[G. David Felt]

Charging infrastructure won't be set up for twenty years min so full electrics won't be practical for most of the population for quite some time.

 

 

Here you are wrong, the west coast has a massive charging infrastructure now especially with the electric highway initiative. You can now drive all over British Columbia and down to Baha California and charge all the way.

 

http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/

 

I also wrote about this back in April 2015

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/84688-electric-highway-west-coast-style/

 

The electrification of the US will happen faster than you think and not 20 years from now.

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

 

Tesla sells a butt load of auto's in Washington state and we are northern state so you fail in your assessment that this is a Southern state car only. 

[oldshurst442]

Québec WAS a leader in this highway infrastructure recharging  thing only to step off the gas pedal 2-3 years ago...

However, last year, Québec announce billions of dollars in rebooting the electrical charging grid. I forget how many electric cars the Québec government is pushing for y 2020, and its a lot...

 

Plus...Québec has signed deals with the Province of Ontario to share the costs for the electrical charging infrastructure with Tesla so you could include Ontario and Québec along with the North American West coast.

 

I dont feel like posting proof of what I said with links, too lazy, and if someone requires evidence, just ask me...Ill provide...Google is one small step to achieve the proof...

 

 

So yeah...electrification of our roadways is more than on its way, its already here and only getting bigger...

 

Think about how long it took to acheve gas staions at every city corner...

Well, it will take less time to achieve electric charge stations at every single corner.

 

Because in Québec, there is also another way to charge an EV...

 

Grocery stores and restaurants and hospitals and the like all have partnered up with Hydro-Québec to install charging stations for their clients...

 

The city of Montréal is already putting charge stations with their parking meters...that would be part of the billion dollar investment I talked about...

I bet you Los Angeles already has that in their city, but at least we are pro-active as well...

[G. David Felt]

On top of this is the incentive gov gives to businesses. Unlike Petro, it is very easy to get permits and install for Charge, Charging stations at companies everywhere.

 

My work building just installed 4 charging stations and even though the cost of electrical is 6 cents per kilowatt of power in Washington state, the building owner charges $3.75 per KiloWatt and I see plenty of people who are willing to pay $10-$20 per session to charge their auto. There is a max charge rate governed by the state here and that is $20.00 So I see plenty of people offering to install charging stations and let people charge up their auto.

 

Washington state also made it mandatory with building new homes, condo's and apartments, all living spaces must come with a 220V charger now.

 

So electrification will take off fast I believe.

 

Faster and Safer than a Petro Station.

[Robert Hall]

 

Charging infrastructure won't be set up for twenty years min so full electrics won't be practical for most of the population for quite some time.

 

 

Here you are wrong, the west coast has a massive charging infrastructure now especially with the electric highway initiative. You can now drive all over British Columbia and down to Baha California and charge all the way.

 

http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/

 

I also wrote about this back in April 2015

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/84688-electric-highway-west-coast-style/

 

The electrification of the US will happen faster than you think and not 20 years from now.

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

 

Tesla sells a butt load of auto's in Washington state and we are northern state so you fail in your assessment that this is a Southern state car only. 

 

The West Coast is usually ahead of the rest of the country on many things, esp. at adopting new technologies and green solutions...especially in the great tech cities like Seattle and San Francisco.   Quite different than Ocn's Amish paradise, where it's still the 1800s...

[oldshurst442]

OCN's Amish paradise...

 

 

Ive got another hour to go before Kickoff.

 

So...I youtubed Amish Paradise just to listen to the song again...

 

 

 

As I walk through the valley where I harvest my grain
I take a look at my wife and realize she's very plain
But that's just perfect for an Amish like me
You know I shun fancy things like electricity

 

:roflmao:

[Robert Hall]

I love that song...and get a kick of joking about it, as I did grow up on the edge of Ohio's Amish country... got stuck behind a black horse and buggy on a narrow backroad w/ no place to pass many times...

[oldshurst442]

Just like the movies, eh?

 

 

 

And THAT would be Canadiana from me since we are into making fun of cultural identities...

Edited February 7, 2016 by oldshurst442

[ocnblu]

My kind of charging station...

 

 

[regfootball]

 

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

You have this weird fixation on the 'mainstream'....F the mainstream, Tesla will be going after the entry lux market with the 3, like the 3 series, C-class, ATS, IS, etc...which are all RWD w/ available AWD...

 

model 3 is tesla's mass market car.

[regfootball]

 

Charging infrastructure won't be set up for twenty years min so full electrics won't be practical for most of the population for quite some time.

 

 

Here you are wrong, the west coast has a massive charging infrastructure now especially with the electric highway initiative. You can now drive all over British Columbia and down to Baha California and charge all the way.

 

http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/

 

I also wrote about this back in April 2015

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/84688-electric-highway-west-coast-style/

 

The electrification of the US will happen faster than you think and not 20 years from now.

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

 

Tesla sells a butt load of auto's in Washington state and we are northern state so you fail in your assessment that this is a Southern state car only. 

 

US vehicle market was 17 million plus last year.  about 4 tenths of one percent of the US market.  that is niche.  California is not the US.  elec infrastructure will cost trillions and it ain't happenin in 5 years.  Buyers who buy new cars this year, those cars will be on the road for 10-15 years yet.  Stuff will still be petroleum driven for quite some time, the world doesn't change that quickly.

 

Tesla did outsell Fiat though.  Let's send Musk a medal for that.

Edited February 8, 2016 by regfootball

[Robert Hall]

 

 

Charging infrastructure won't be set up for twenty years min so full electrics won't be practical for most of the population for quite some time.

 

 

Here you are wrong, the west coast has a massive charging infrastructure now especially with the electric highway initiative. You can now drive all over British Columbia and down to Baha California and charge all the way.

 

http://westcoastgreenhighway.com/

 

I also wrote about this back in April 2015

 

http://www.cheersandgears.com/topic/84688-electric-highway-west-coast-style/

 

The electrification of the US will happen faster than you think and not 20 years from now.

RWD cars won't conquer the mainstream in snow states because of their poor weather performance. Even if tesla cars have better weight dist you won't convince the mass casual car buyers. So it will be a southern state car.

 

Tesla sells a butt load of auto's in Washington state and we are northern state so you fail in your assessment that this is a Southern state car only. 

 

US vehicle market was 17 million plus last year.  about 4 tenths of one percent of the US market.  that is niche.  California is not the US.  elec infrastructure will cost trillions and it ain't happenin in 5 years.  Buyers who buy new cars this year, those cars will be on the road for 10-15 years yet.  Stuff will still be petroleum driven for quite some time, the world doesn't change that quickly.

 

Tesla did outsell Fiat though.  Let's send Musk a medal for that.

 

Get a map..West Coast isn't just California...but California is the largest auto market in the country...  

Edited February 8, 2016 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[Robert Hall]

Watching the Super Bowl ads, I got to wondering..has Tesla ever had a TV commercial, don't recall ever seeing one?