Google and Car Makers at odds over Self-Driving Cars

[kittyworker]

 

Google Inc. threw the auto industry another curve ball Wednesday, saying its autonomous cars should be on public roads within five years without having to drive through a thicket of regulatory red tape.

 

Speaking at a conference in Detroit, the chief of the software giant’s autonomous-car project, Chris Urmson, indicated widespread auto industry concern about regulation of self-driving cars is overblown. The onus, he said, is on developers of these vehicles to tackle safety challenges and work to boost public acceptance.

source: http://www.wsj.com/articles/google-sees-self-drive-car-on-road-within-five-years-1421267677

 

 

Car makers have played down the likelihood of self-driving vehicles being widespread within a decade.

Just under one in five of those polled for IBM's Automotive 2025: Industry without borders report believes it will be routine for cars to drive themselves in all situations by 2025. The survey questioned 175 executives from automotive OEMs, suppliers, and other companies in 21 countries.

Instead the vast majority, 87 percent, felt partially-automated driving, such as an extension of today's self-parking or lane-change-assist technologies would be commonplace. Moreover, 55 percent said highly-automated driving, where an onboard system recognises its limitations and calls the driver to take control when needed, would also be a feature of vehicles by 2025.

source: http://www.zdnet.com/article/self-driving-cars-longer-will/

 

Well it appears that Google sees self Driving cars becoming popular mush sooner than Car Makers do, I'm not really all that surprised by that a Google has always been more innovative than what the Car Companies have been (Why mess with something that works). Im curious over what everyone else thinks about this. How soon do you expect Self Driving cars to be popular, how much longer until they are mainstream?

 

I personally don't see them being popular for another 20 years, and not mainstream for another 10-20 years after that. 

 

[Drew Dowdell]

Cost is going to be the biggest hindrance once they're made legal.

[vegito12]

I think it may happen in 10 years time since, the google cars are still being tested and also will take time to be on the road and will need to see if the car has any defects which it may when it releases and how it drvies and how it is controlled will need to be known. I think the cost should be relaistic if they are looking for average buyer, if is for someone who can afford it than many people will miss out on buying the car but may have test drive and see how it is and buy it when the value is lower and price is something they can afford. I think they may work with car makers and join hands to build the cars as doing it on their own, may find problems when fixing them and the car makers can supply the parts and discuss the costs it will take.

[ocnblu]

The Google "car" is absolutely RIDDLED with defects.

[Z-06]

I wanna be a hacker.

[G. David Felt]

20 years to be legal and another 20 to become common like a Prius and then 20 more years to replace the bulk of auto's. About 60 years from now.

[regfootball]

I could see the class of younger kids who were driven around by their parents for 19 years possibly liking continuing to get driven around by a self driving car so they can just surf the phone while in the car. Self driving cars may help handicapped and older people. The automakers should tell Google to go fk itself .....Google is thinking they can take over the car industry and make the rules. Google doesn't know crap about automobile dynamics and manufacturing hard goods.

[bobo]

In about 5 years, Google, Tesla, Nissan, and I'm guessing Audi will have self-driving cars.  I would guess the initial cost to be around an additional $20k, with the price coming down substantially in about 10 years, when there will be much higher market penetration.  In about 20 years, I could see all new vehicles having the technology.

 

Google has a fleet of autonomous Lexus RX450h that they let their employees drive home.  It's pretty incredible what the vehicles can do by themselves--drive through construction zones and identify and avoid pedestrians and bicyclists.  The technology removes a lot of the human error that plagues driving.  I would feel safer with autonomous vehicles driving rather than distracted motorists.

[Drew Dowdell]

In about 5 years, Google, Tesla, Nissan, and I'm guessing Audi will have self-driving cars.  I would guess the initial cost to be around an additional $20k, with the price coming down substantially in about 10 years, when there will be much higher market penetration.  In about 20 years, I could see all new vehicles having the technology.

 

Google has a fleet of autonomous Lexus RX450h that they let their employees drive home.  It's pretty incredible what the vehicles can do by themselves--drive through construction zones and identify and avoid pedestrians and bicyclists.  The technology removes a lot of the human error that plagues driving.  I would feel safer with autonomous vehicles driving rather than distracted motorists.

 

Cadillac also.  They have a partnership with Carnegie Mellon Univeristy and there are autonomous Cadillac SRXes running around Pittsburgh.

[G. David Felt]

Please Snap a Photo of these sell running Caddies!

 

I agree for those motorist who would rather be on Facebook over paying attention to driving it would be great and let the auto cars be programmed to always stay to the right.

 

Let those of us that love to drive drive.

[balthazar]

Who would these parents be that would spend $100,000 for a 3rd car so their kid could surf FB while they are driven around??

Frankly, I have a hard time believing any exist.

 

The last cost I saw to build a self-driving car was $150,000 each. I don't see how that can drop to a mere $20K (OVER the price of the base car) inside of 25 years. Even with economies of scale (of which there will be none), in order to get a 87% drop in costs would have to require massive corner-cutting. The ONLY segment this makes sense in on a retail level is very high-end luxury cars. How many handicapped/ old people drop that kind of coin?

[Drew Dowdell]

Who would these parents be that would spend $100,000 for a 3rd car so their kid could surf FB while they are driven around??

Frankly, I have a hard time believing any exist.

 

The last cost I saw to build a self-driving car was $150,000 each. I don't see how that can drop to a mere $20K (OVER the price of the base car) inside of 25 years. Even with economies of scale (of which there will be none), in order to get a 87% drop in costs would have to require massive corner-cutting. The ONLY segment this makes sense in on a retail level is very high-end luxury cars. How many handicapped/ old people drop that kind of coin?

 

Well that's based on today's technology. 

 

Already we have fully automatic cruise control that you can engage in traffic and all you have to do is steer... the only time you have to intervene on the brake pedal is if you are the first car approaching a stop light.  Cars can park themselves today... you can pick that up in a used MKS for under $25k.  Some of the Benzes will nudge you back in to your lane if you're drifting out of it (and how they can tell between an unintentional drift and an unsignaled lane change, I do not know, but it works).  Even my little Buick will ding at me if I start to drift out of my lane... the tech to nudge it back on course isn't that much more... it's just electric power steering after all. The Nissan Pathfinder is one of many vehicles that already has 360 degree cameras that activate while parking. 

 

All of these technologies are available on vehicles currently well into the used market.  It's not a stretch that they can be combined in some way that will be within the price range of the typical end user to allow for a more automatic driving experience.

 

Cadillac is testing super cruise (I believe this is a different technology than the automatic SRXes) that will allow for automated freeway and bumper to bumper traffic driving.  They have XTS test mules running around in Pittsburgh.  That technology is due out for the 2016 model year, so Cadillac is roughly 18 months away from releasing it.