Auto analyst slams GM to VA dealers

[wildcat]

There are many varying opinions about what will happen to GM in the future. Auto analyst Maryann Keller has given her thoughts to a group of Virginia auto dealers. Among other statements, she believs that Pontiac and Buick will "disappear within the next five years." To view the entire article, click here.

[daves87rs]

Horse$h!.

They may have much, but cars like the Enclave and soltice, I simply can't see that happening.

Unless GM goes under or falls apart....

[nzr]

I bet she drives a Toyota.

[Mr.Krinkle]

correct me if im wrong, but, wasnt a few billion dollars just invested in buick over the next few years.

pontiac is another story they will have to stand on their own feet it looks.

thats the typical love em or hate em brand with a high loyalty fan base.

if you like them youll be back, if not you wind up hating them.

i think theyll be playing that by ear for a little. i happen to love pontiacs so id rather see them stay put.

buick-, nah they arent going anywhere. maybe up if anything. yeah, i know that sounds corny. f it.

its good thing bm isnt pm, then hed really be bitching.

[balthazar]

That's ironic; I predict analysts will "disappear within the next five years."

[zbad1]

That's ironic; I predict analysts will "disappear within the next five years."

:rotflmao:

[97regalGS]

Buick not likely, but Pontiac........ I'm not so sure.

need to wait a few more months to see if any Pontiac Zeta's are being planned.

[daves87rs]

That's ironic; I predict analysts will "disappear within the next five years."

[jbartley]

Buick not likely, but Pontiac........ I'm not so sure.

need to wait a few more months to see if any Pontiac Zeta's are being planned.

Yeah, i don't see Buick going anywhere, it IS the STRONGER brand.

and GM is giving it product to help it's image.

I think PONTIAC, and to a lesser extent SAAB, are the only damaged brands at GM now. I think it's up to future product for Pontiac, as well as G6 sales to ensure it's survival.

[tmp]

Keller has spoken to the Hampton Roads Automobile Dealers Association in the past and won praise from its leaders for accurately predicting skyrocketing oil prices at a previous presentation

And based upon the fact that I accurately predicted that "Will and Grace" would eventually go off the air, I can now state that Television will cease to exist in three years, to be replaced by interpretive dance. Performed by mice.

[Mr.Krinkle]

Wow! a limited natural resource will become more expensive as the supply dwindles. who is she, kreskin?

i wonder how she is at picking the mega ball.

at least its nice to know that if a reputation can be based on such a prophetic vision as that, we all have a shot at becoming an "analyst" maybe a 50/50 chance (but only a 10% chance of that).

[nikivee]

Yeah, i don't see Buick going anywhere, it IS the STRONGER brand.

Stronger how? In product? Buick has two new products the Lucernce and LaCrosse with the soon to be Enclave making number 3. Pontiac has the Solstice and 3 different g6 models, plus the Torrent, Vibe and soon the rebadged Cobalt, G5. Not to mention the 08-09 GTO is a go according to Bob Lutz.

Pontiac also outsells Buick. So how is Buick the stronger brand? All of Buicks demographics are dying off.

Edited April 13, 2006 by nikivee

[evok]

Let be fair to Maryann Keller. She generally is one of the better ones out there and enjoy her perspective. I credit a lot to her when I started out and how I perceive the business.

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article.

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

Really, what she is quoted as saying is not off base if you are observing the company's performance and rhetoric.

As for the rest of it, we do not know, what she actually said. So I think the article sux but what Keller said is not off in left field.

[Guest Josh]

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article. 

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm certainly no analyst but I do believe I've said that year after year. It's always been "next years models"....well....this is another "next year" but share is down and profits plunged.

[evok]

I'm certainly no analyst but I do believe I've said that year after year. It's always been "next years models"....well....this is another "next year" but share is down and profits plunged.

GM is in a perpetual death spiral that Keller points out. This has been going on at GM since the first real market share implosion in 1985.

1) Less and less money available to invest in emerging markets and for product in the US.

1a) Sacrifice on advaced powertrains.

1b) Less model variants.

2) The new product that arrives are not homeruns or even winners for the most part and are receiving a luke warm reception.

2a) Decline of market share

2b) More reliance on heavy incentives to hold a shrinking market share.

3) Rising legacy costs, investments in Hughes, EDS, GMAC, other OEMs etc.

4) Back to bullet 1.

That is GM in 4 bullets. They have to fix bullets 2 and 3 before bullet 1 can be fixed. And those product decision are still a questiom mark especially for GM in the US. This ain't rocket science.

Edited April 13, 2006 by evok

[sciguy_0504]

But just wait for next year!

[Mr.Krinkle]

i think its safe to say that the proper steps are staring to take effect.

bullet no #3 for instance.

market share wont go up until better products for the money are released.

i cant really remember a "push" for new products like theyve been hawking this my and next--across the entire board

the article did acknowledge that spending for development is up 7 fold from when it was cut more than 10 years ago.

if it took this long to have the effect we are seeing now, then i dont think its unreasonable to take a few more years to get things back up and increasing.

perhaps 2011 is the first honest attemp at predicting the winfall.

reaping what was sown for good and bad.

maybe, this is pure conjecture, but just maybe keller sees some changes, for the better this year and is presenting a "tough love" type of straw man argument.

or i might be giving too much credit.

yeah, we havent seen new products even though they say every year, but honestly does anyone not see that these, for real, might be those better products?

and they stretch across, not just cadillac either. saturn, buicks, the holden playing their part, the trucks...

[regfootball]

HELEN? Keller?

[evok]

Kelle'rs actual quotes from the article are dead nutz on. She has been saying the same thing about GM for 20 years now. This is not a new spin on things.

Anyone go and read her books or article in AI. She is not a typical analyst who gets quoted in the press that does not know what they are talking about. She is not a reporter but spent year on the street with Furman Seltz.

She is one that actually does her due dilegence and homework.

If there is any frustration in her actual presentation which we are not privy too, it is because it might get old repeating yourself for 20 + years when the subject is GM and things appear to not be getting any better.

Edited April 13, 2006 by evok

[motownr]

Let be fair to Maryann Keller.  She generally is one of the better ones out there and enjoy her perspective.  I credit a lot to her when I started out and how I perceive the business.

This is what she is quoted and only what she is quoted as saying in the article. 

“GM always seems like it’s in a bubble, like customers are always waiting for GM to release new models,” Keller told about 200 guests from the automotive, advertising and financial industries during a luncheon at the Founders Inn. “GM has never understood that the whole world is changing rapidly.”

“A year ago, Rick Wagoner was saying, 'Just wait until next year when the new models are out,’” Keller said of the General Motors chief executive. “Well, guess what? It’s next year, and market share’s down .”

“That’s really smart,” Keller said of the cuts. “What do they think they’re selling, insurance?”

Really, what she is quoted as saying is not off base if you are observing the company's performance and rhetoric.

As for the rest of it, we do not know, what she actually said.  So I think the article sux but what Keller said is not off in left field.

Evok:

Thank you for balancing the discussion.

Keller is well-regarded among people in the industry and has been for many years.

[toyoguy]

Of Saturn, Buick, and Pontiac one or more likely two will certainly fizzle out w/in the next 5-12yrs.

The market will not support multiple rebadged vehicles. GM can't continue relying on fleeting cars to prop up sales figures and production #'s, otherwise they'll eventually run out of cash.

The antiquated model of multiple channels has been proven useless over the past few yrs. And GM's 2005 $10billion+ loss this proves it. GM will continue bleeding red ink until they declare bankruptcy or trim severely trim production.

Edited April 13, 2006 by toyoguy

[Northstar]

Of Saturn, Buick, and Pontiac one or more likely two will certainly fizzle out w/in the next 5-12yrs.

The market will not support multiple rebadged vehicles.  GM can't continue relying on fleeting cars to prop up sales figures and production #'s, otherwise they'll eventually run out of cash.

Saturn is safe, have you seen the new products?

Multiple rebadged vehicles? If they all have a different character and target buyer like the Enclave and Outlook, then you can't really call them rebadges.

[ehaase]

GM will continue bleeding red ink until they declare bankruptcy or trim severely trim production.

GM will continue bleeding red ink until the UAW allows it to pay workers wages comparable to its competitors and it gets relief from legacy and health care costs.

[toyoguy]

Saturn is safe, have you seen the new products? 

Multiple rebadged vehicles? If they all have a different character and target buyer like the Enclave and Outlook, then you can't really call them rebadges.

Beyond a GM fanatic's eye the new Saturn products are nothing spectacular. The Sky is a niche vehicle with no profit. The Aura offers little if anything over its competitors. The Outlook is the only one w/any selling potential.

Lots of new vehicles but IMO Saturn doesn't have the customer base.

[Flybrian]

Lots of new vehicles but IMO Saturn doesn't have the customer base.

Saturn has one of the highest conquest rates of any GM brand.

Saturn's customer base is also the second most-loyal of any GM division (Buick being 1st) and among the most loyal in the industry.

Saturn consistantly outranks Ford, VW, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota in customer satisfaction.

kthxbye.

[Mr.Krinkle]

as far as being respected, yes, im sure she is. but when yourre right 52% of the time, your wrong 48% of the time.

its lots easier to look back and see where things went wrong.

its a lot easier to say i told you so.

the point is much of what she states is stating the obvious.

now, i hardly disagree with most of the points that have been brought up but its hard to deny that this upcoming crop isnt crap. the others, lets face it, werent so hot.

i can honestly say that this new stuff is finally looking up and going in the right direction. how come it took so long? id bet wed all like to know.

'08 -- thats fair. there should definately be some clear signs if everythings going ok.

product is always the first step. thats a no &#036;h&#33; sherlock response.

getting people to know what you have plays a huge part. thats marketing.

focus on the future. see its easy. i even learned that from the muscle car era.

what happens when the sh*t hit the fan then?...same thing some 30 almost 40 years later when the hurricane season hit.

the most appealing product become not so in a very very short time. and yourre stuck.

the point now is to not only focus on crossovers and import replica looking things. whats next. propably hydrogen but hopefully thats not all--at the rate its going, anyway.

its easier to analyze and editorialize than it is to lead and come up with ideas. not everyone gets it right.

heres to hoping the right people are in the right places right now.

"We've never been in a market like this, where gasoline prices are cheap. It's a world that's very hostile to small cars.” m. keller

"This is a brutally competitive market,”m. keller

“(GM and Ford) have now sucked up all of the available customers through year-end with their employee pricing scheme. And with gasoline, even though it has come down from its highs, at current prices people are sufficiently concerned about heating their homes and putting gas in their car that they're going to buy more sensibly, and they're NOT going to buy big sport utility vehicles.” m. keller

“It seems like the rest of the world has figured it out. When are they going to figure it out? When are they going to declare a crisis and start running a company as though it is in a crisis?” m. keller.

the answer...Now

being respected, yes, im sure she is. but when yourre right 52% of the time, your wrong 48% of the time.

we all need to think for ourselves once in a while.

[regfootball]

Evok:

Thank you for balancing the discussion. 

Keller is well-regarded among people in the industry and has been for many years.

well then GM should just close all of Buick's and Pontiac's doors right now. Because SHE said so.

then we'll have complete and utter CRAP like Kia Amantis wasting space on showfloors across America, yet Buicks are not good enough to allow them to survive.

Edited April 14, 2006 by regfootball

[toyoguy]

Saturn has one of the highest conquest rates of any GM brand.

Saturn's customer base is also the second most-loyal of any GM division (Buick being 1st) and among the most loyal in the industry.

Saturn consistantly outranks Ford, VW, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota in customer satisfaction.

kthxbye.

That's nice and all, but that still isn't enough people to support multiple brands. Either the Aura or G6 goes, I don't see GM selling both at least in terms of retail sales.

kbyebye

[balthazar]

The Aura and the G6 are not "rebadges". A camry & an es300 are rebadges. If those can sell as obvious (even to non-enthusiast consumers) twins, the 'apparently' completely different Aura & G6 can too. The problem is not in those vehicles themselves.

IMO you are oversimplifying the issue.

[Mule Bakersdozen LS]

Have you seen Camry and ES? They're NOT rebadges! They're similar but they have entirely different exteriors. Apart from the Zeta's, Pontiac really doesn't have much to look forward to, but I think Buick is safe-for now.

[evok]

well then GM should just close all of Buick's and Pontiac's doors right now.  Because SHE said so.

then we'll have complete and utter CRAP like Kia Amantis wasting space on showfloors across America, yet Buicks are not good enough to allow them to survive.

Go back and read my actual post. No where is Keller quoted and I point that out, as explicitly stating to axe Buick or Pontiac.

[evok]

I suspect that Kellers comments to the dealer group with regard to BUick and Pontiac are as follows:

If GM does not act promptly in rectifing the current financial and market share situation at their NA operations, drastic measures might be called for, including the contraction of Pontiac and Buick over the next five years.

But that is how I read Keller and can not be verified from the actual quotes from the article.

[eaton53]

Is she aware the GMC-Buick-Pontiac have been combined into a single sales channel? Apparently not....

There's no point whatsoever in getting rid of them as they will effectively become one brand with focused nameplates instead of multiple full lines.

[NOS2006]

Yeah, I'd say this seems to be a biased view, but who knows. I doubt we'll see Buick/Pontiac dismissed with the plans to vibe them up a little.

[evok]

I mean a lot of you just do not know how to read. I might suggest hooked on phonics!

[Polish_Kris]

But just wait for next year!

GM's unofficial company slogan.

[The O.C.]

Beyond a GM fanatic's eye the new Saturn products are nothing spectacular.  The Sky is a niche vehicle with no profit.  The Aura offers little if anything over its competitors. The Outlook is the only one w/any selling potential.

Lots of new vehicles but IMO Saturn doesn't have the customer base.

You are spot on, toyoguy........

SKY, while fun and attractive and a good value, will not be a volume product.

ION is still subpar.

AURA, while handsome, breaks no new ground.....either for GM, or for the midsize segment and has an interior that is actually barely competitive now with what's out there.....not to mention an uncompetitive base drivetrain.

RELAY.....also uncompetitive in its segment.

OUTLOOK......could do really well. Really the only entry in Saturn's lineup that seems to be pretty-much fully competitive inside, outside, and powertrain-wise with the segment leaders.

[The O.C.]

The Aura and the G6 are not "rebadges". A camry & an es300 are rebadges. If those can sell as obvious (even to non-enthusiast consumers) twins, the 'apparently' completely different Aura & G6 can too. The problem is not in those vehicles themselves.

IMO you are oversimplifying the issue.

You can HARDLY call the Camry and ES rebadges....that's absurd.

(And, NO.....AURA and G6 aren't either.)

Equinox/Torrent...? YES

RELAY/Uplander/Montana SV6/Terraza...? YES

Ford 500/Montego...? YES

[VenSeattle]

Uhm... guys... Have we even seen prices for Outlook or Aura? Don't you think we need to wait for those before saying a vehicle is competitive or not... especially when comparing base trims.

As for Aura itself, we haven't seen stats for Greenline or Redline trims. Saying it's 'barely competitive' or 'doesn't break new ground' without looking at the Hybrid or Performance versions means you're only looking at half the picture.

[enzl]

Uhm... guys... Have we even seen prices for Outlook or Aura? Don't you think we need to wait for those before saying a vehicle is competitive or not... especially when comparing base trims.

As for Aura itself, we haven't seen stats for Greenline or Redline trims. Saying it's 'barely competitive' or 'doesn't break new ground' without looking at the Hybrid or Performance versions means you're only looking at half the picture.

Great points. I'll go out on a limb and predict if the Aura comes in at 4 cyl. Camry/Accord pricing for the base model and the Outlook is Highlander 4cyl. levels, they'll be a huge success...otherwise, its Oldsmobile II for Saturn.

[Mr.Krinkle]

most people buying these cars dont whip out the fine tooth comb and examine every little detail.--which you are doing by looking at pictures no less. and you let it fly.

dude, you nitpich the sh$t out of every little thing. i wouldnt take your word on a single blessed thing.

what do you want from a car?

ill tell you what...nothing because it wont matter.

you do it with cars that are 3x more expensive too. so what gives?

just one question for you--has there ever been a car you were happy with that didnt have some kind of imperfection that damned it?

"You are spot on, toyoguy........

SKY, while fun and attractive and a good value, will not be a volume product.

ION is still subpar.

AURA, while handsome, breaks no new ground.....either for GM, or for the midsize segment and has an interior that is actually barely competitive now with what's out there.....not to mention an uncompetitive base drivetrain.

RELAY.....also uncompetitive in its segment.

OUTLOOK......could do really well. Really the only entry in Saturn's lineup that seems to be pretty-much fully competitive inside, outside, and powertrain-wise with the segment leaders."

wait, theres more.

people who want a pontiac dont look at chevies or saturns- for the most part.

chevy/saturn might see some more overlap.

toyota created "scion" because younger buyers dont give a rats ass about the camry and CANT afford a lexus. hence "scion" is born. great name by the way, (or perhaps because they were looking at the civics and subarus. which im sure are all fine cars), but they arent a toyota.

so as far as you being spot on, id say you are close, but way, way off. none of you guys have even seen them and you are all so quick to judge and throw your two cents in.

by the by, the greenline nonsense is just gonna draw more people to the brand, regardless.

[CaddyXLR-V]

most people buying these cars dont whip out the fine tooth comb and examine every little detail.--which you are doing by looking at pictures no less.  and you let it fly. 

dude, you nitpich the sh$t out of every little thing.  i wouldnt take your word on a single blessed thing. 

what do you want from a car?

ill tell you what...nothing because it wont matter.

you do it with cars that are 3x more expensive too.  so what gives?

just one question for you--has there ever been a car you were happy with that didnt have some kind of imperfection that damned it?

"You are spot on, toyoguy........

SKY, while fun and attractive and a good value, will not be a volume product.

ION is still subpar.

AURA, while handsome, breaks no new ground.....either for GM, or for the midsize segment and has an interior that is actually barely competitive now with what's out there.....not to mention an uncompetitive base drivetrain.

RELAY.....also uncompetitive in its segment.

OUTLOOK......could do really well. Really the only entry in Saturn's lineup that seems to be pretty-much fully competitive inside, outside, and powertrain-wise with the segment leaders."

wait, theres more.

people who want a pontiac dont look at chevies or saturns- for the most part.

chevy/saturn might see some more overlap.

toyota created "scion" because younger buyers dont give a rats ass about the camry and CANT afford a lexus.  hence "scion" is born.  great name by the way, (or perhaps because they were looking at the civics and subarus. which im sure are all fine cars), but they arent a toyota.

so as far as you being spot on, id say you are close, but way, way  off.  none of you guys have even seen them and you are all so quick to judge and throw your two cents in. 

by the by,  the greenline nonsense is just gonna draw more people to the brand, regardless.

Unfortunately, the general public probably looks at GM cars in a more negative light than most here, if the GM cars even get a look at all.

[Mr.Krinkle]

i dont disagree with that, but even so, its only a "step down" if yourre switching from a benz or similar price bracket change.

theres a wole confluence of reasons people buy a car. i cant tell until i see them in person, i mean i have an idea but...they dont look so terrible. if that combined with a few more reason to consider, i might.

too bad some people were soured, it takes a lot to regain trust and approval.

maybe why lexus is giving away i-pods. its a shame to sully a good name and rep.

i usually find interiors bland or sterile to begin with, just not very inviting especially in sub 25-30,000 cars. as the price range moves up its another story.

i might be more picky.

[drew770]

I can see Saturn with a future but Buick and Pontiac seems alittle murky. But I am sure they will be around for the near future.

But, at least Saturn seems to be looking forward. With the Red and Green line versions of it's products it will give Saturn more appeal across the board!

The Greenline could bring in Earth Friendly customers that no other brand in GM can bring in especially SUV and Truck heavy Chevy.

Also the Redline versions could bring in the tuner import loving youth that enjoys cheap fast trills.

With all of the new products for Saturn even though they are rebadges of a European brand that 99% of Americans never heard of Saturn has the best chance of bringing in new customers to GM because all of the other brands are tainted with a subpar perceptions.

[Croc]

Saturn is similar to Mercury: Mercury has zero image...positive or negative. Saturn has a slight image, and luckily for it its image is one of pleasant dealers and "non-GM" product. Hence, Saturn gets the euro cars because it has the most pliable image within GM. An argument could be made for SAAB, but Saturn has a better dealer network so that's what happened.

Pontiac is the murky one, really. What kind of vehicles does Pontiac offer? Pontiac as a brand is like one of those nasty scatterplot graphs where the trend line could be drawn almost anywhere...They need focus. And money. I believe they'll be getting it by the end of the decade, though. Lutz does not want anymore casualties.

Honestly, Pontiac would have a compelling lineup with a Zeta sedan/GTO coupe pair of vehicles, Solstice and a G6 lineup without an ass-nasty interior. Frankly, GM should put the current AURA interior in the G6 because in my mind that is the kind of quality Pontiac should be offering (minus the wood of course...Pontiac should stick with brushed aluminum-like trim). The AURA has an interior that is just barely competitive. Give it some piano black trim, ditch the plood, and give it some two-tone dash treatments like the OUTLOOK has...then it will be truly competitive for its life cycle. As I see it now, AURA has a great exterior, mediocre interior, good powertrain. It will compete acceptably with the Camry and Accord for a year or two, but no longer than that. Of course, this is perfect, as a new AURA debuts for 2010 on Epsilon II. So in the end I think the AURA is fine because it is what it is: a stopgap. Judging by the OUTLOOK interior, which is class-leading, the 2010 AURA should be excellent.

[Camino LS6]

If I'm reading this correctly, It is not the analyst we have a gripe with this time. It seems to me the reporter is at fault for an unsupported and inflamatory headline.

Pontiac and Buick aren't going away. It costs a prohibitive amount of money to eliminate a brand. Buick is China's new automotive darling and improving with each new model here, has a great quality record and has been given the development funds to strengthen its lineup. Pontiac still sells very well and with the right new product, will become stronger in a reasonable period of time. The combination of Pontiac,Buick and GMC into a single sales channel will be the saving grace of all three. They will become much more focused as brands even as their lineups narrow. GM's main problems are at the corporate level, by that I mean the ones that could still spell disaster. The brands are really taking their own paths now, albeit too slowly, and product is genuinely improving at an increasing rate (again too slowly). The legacy,labor, and other corporate costs are the real boat anchor holding GM's ship back right now.

[Croc]

Camino, I agree with you 100%. You said it very succinctly and accurately.

[Petra]

While I doubt that Pontiac and/or Buick are going away anytime soon, I can't blame the guy for being worried. Aside from the Enclave, there isn't anything coming to Buick in the near future (and I'm talking about stuff that can be confirmed, not rumours). And Pontiac doesn't seem to have anything lined up for the next couple years at all.

[Croc]

Next-gen LaCrosse on EpsilonII in 2009, Enclave in late 2007, some kind of Zeta (likely Statesman based on that one article) has been confirmed. Buick just got Lucerne, and Lucerne is sticking around for more than a generation. What else do you need?

Pontiac has............a possible GTO/Zeta sedan. That's it.

[Petra]

Next-gen LaCrosse on EpsilonII in 2009, Enclave in late 2007, some kind of Zeta (likely Statesman based on that one article) has been confirmed.  Buick just got Lucerne, and Lucerne is sticking around for more than a generation.  What else do you need?

I think I'll leave that question to Wildcat. :AH-HA_wink: