Holden ponders revolutionary 2020s Commodore ahead of 2015 VE-based re-body

[Oracle of Delphi]

GM HOLDEN has revealed that a decision on the generation-after-next Commodore – due from 2018 – will have to be made within the next 12 months or so, as the company moves forward with its family car options into the 2020s.

The local GM subsidiary has also indicated it is pushing for a rear-wheel-drive design for that Commodore, despite some moves within GM to promote a front-wheel-drive switch for the big Holden.

Holden chairman and managing director Mike Devereux told GoAuto on the eve of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit: “We have the best selling car in a very important market.

“And we will do everything we can to make sure we design ‘a Commodore’ that is right for Australia.

“The first rule for us is, no matter what we do long term (seven, eight or nine years from now), we have to make sure that the Commodore is a Commodore. And what that means is that, in about a year from now, our team has to figure that out.

“And it sucks that you have to make such a long call so far in advanced on what that architecture will be. And in the next 12 months we will have to make that sort of call.”

Although nobody at Holden would comment, it appears that rear-wheel drive (RWD) is poised to continue in the Commodore if the boss gets his way, as General Motors aims to retain Holden’s expertise in the field.

“The great thing about (today’s RWD Commodore) is that if you look at where that front axle is, and the length of the hood, and the space for some jewellery between the door and wheel arches … its just great proportions. It looks better. Cars like that just look better,” Mr Devereux said.

Before the 2018 Commodore happens, however, expect to see a rebodied version of the current-generation version in showrooms by 2015, employing the existing Zeta RWD platform that dates back to the VE of 2006, but boasting evolutionary new styling, completely revamped interiors, and significant powertrain updates.

Think of how Volkswagen has updated the current Golf and upcoming Passat as extensive reskins of their immediate predecessors to see how Holden is poised to keep its Billion Dollar Baby fresh.

A concerted weight loss program to help improve fuel consumption and lower emissions using chassis components like aluminium will also probably feature, though steel sheetmetal will again be employed on the grounds of lower cost.

Neither Mr Devereux nor anybody else at GM Holden would comment on what the Commodore of next decade would be.

However, he did play down rumours concerning the eventual adoption of GM’s all-new Alpha platform that is set to underpin a host of future Cadillac models beginning with the 2012 ATS full-sized luxury sedan, suggesting instead that there is still many years ahead for the Zeta platform.

Mr Devereux cited high costs associated with the exotic construction materials required to build what GM sees as its most serious assault on the BMW 5 Series, Mercedes-Benz E-class and Audi A6 segment, which would put overwhelming pricing pressures on a mainstream car like the Commodore.

The Alpha’s sizing, too, is not in keeping with the width Australian consumers expect from a full-sized family car, since the ATS’ chassis railings are said to be significantly narrower than the existing Commodore’s.

“There are obviously options for us to explore … but there are also issues like size; Zeta is a larger architecture than Alpha, and that has its advantages and disadvantages,” he said.

Asked if excessive mass may mar the Zeta’s chances in the future, Mr Devereux explained that lighter materials have already been looked at for future applications.

“Weight is not as much (of a problem) as you might think when you start factoring in higher-tech materials that we can apply to Zeta in the new car and in the longer term.

“And there are things you can do, obviously to the architecture itself as well as to the panels that hang off.”

Meanwhile, GM vice president for design, Edward Welburn, also weighed in on the Zeta’s future within Holden and GM globally at the company’s pre-NAIAS preview night, suggesting to GoAuto that a number of new cars using it might still be in the pipeline.

“There might be some cars or concepts coming from Holden that use Zeta … and this does not necessarily mean the need for any or all of these vehicles to be built or sold by Holden in Australia,” he said.

“Sure. (Front wheel drive) can be done (in a car the size of the Commodore) with Holden’s proportions.

“But having Mike (Simcoe) back at Holden (as GM’s executive director of international operations design) will help Holden retain the (current) Commodore’s big car look and proportions moving forward.”

Mr Welburn also pointed to the existing relationship with the Chevrolet Camaro keeping the Commodore in good stead as both models move towards their next-generation outcomes, especially as the Holden-engineered and production-designed ‘pony car’ has toppled the Ford Mustang in sales for the first time since the mid 1980s.

“The Camaro as I see it will never be front-wheel drive,” he said.

Link: http://bit.ly/hv26QR

[ocnblu]

That's good news. The right decision.

[Camino LS6]

Amen!

[Blake Noble]

I can't help to think that we should be thanking Ford for this one. After all, the front-drive Taurus will essentially be replacing the traditional Falcon in the near future. I don't think the Australian market is going to welcome a big, front-drive car so easily.

[regfootball]

sort of moronic and contradictory to say the alpha will have limited application due to 'exotic materials and construction' but in the next paragraph to say that zeta will need to adopt lightweight high tech materials to stay relevent.

as if what, the 'lightweight and high tech materials' aren't expensive in either application? wtf.

[FAPTurbo]

I can't help to think that we should be thanking Ford for this one. After all, the front-drive Taurus will essentially be replacing the traditional Falcon in the near future. I don't think the Australian market is going to welcome a big, front-drive car so easily.

Doubt it. Australia's market is much like North America's, and the Camry, Aurion, and Avensis all sell very well; Toyota is the number one seller in the country. In fact, their car prices are far higher than ours so reliability is a huge concern, as many Australians keep their cars for a long time. They want a vehicle that is reliable, and do not place much emphasis on what wheels drive it.

[Robert Hall]

Doubt it. Australia's market is much like North America's, and the Camry, Aurion, and Avensis all sell very well; Toyota is the number one seller in the country. In fact, their car prices are far higher than ours so reliability is a huge concern, as many Australians keep their cars for a long time. They want a vehicle that is reliable, and do not place much emphasis on what wheels drive it.

Random anecdote:

A former manager of mine recently moved from Phoenix to Adelaide, went from a Prius and Matrix here to a used Camry and Hilux pickup there. Was recently tweeting about being surprised at how popular Holden Commodores and Ford Falcons seem to be...

Edited January 12, 2011 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[Camino LS6]

Commodore is the best selling car in Australia, and has been for 15 years.

Only a fool messes with that.

[SAmadei]

Commodore is the best selling car in Australia, and has been for 15 years.

Only a fool messes with that.

Its like 1985 all over again in Aussie land for GM. Still have a good hold on the market... but are thinking of switching the most popular car over to FWD... and I'd say it will pan out about as well there as it did here when GM destroyed their mid and large size RWD platforms in exchange for FWD. After 1988, it seems GM's only true success (both critical and sales) came with trucks. GM could have saved a bundle by just withdrawing from the NA car market.

If GM can't leave Holden alone, they should just sell it and withdraw from Australia. Otherwise, its more billions of dollars wasted to try to force people into cars they don't want... RWD is what keeps Toyota from finishing off the conquest of that market.

[Camino LS6]

Pretty much.

I think Ford is making a huge mistake if they think a Taurus-based car can replace the Falcon. My recent experiences drivng a Taurus don't auger well for the rate of acceptance by fans of the RWD Falcon. The Taurus is a car I really dislike driving. In fact, I couldn't wait to get out from behind the wheel. Fans of RWD are likely to have a similar reaction.

If Holden is smart, they will wait to reap the benefits should Ford go through with their FWD Falcon plans.

[regfootball]

the best selling car in AU sold less than 50k units.....

chump change......

[Camino LS6]

the best selling car in AU sold less than 50k units.....

chump change......

Not in Australia, it isn't.

Then there is the export market- essential to Holden and composed entirely of Commodore/Caprice variants...

[Robert Hall]

IIRC, Ford tried selling the oval wierd Taurus from 1996 or so in Australia..it was a dud.

Pretty much.

I think Ford is making a huge mistake if they think a Taurus-based car can replace the Falcon. My recent experiences drivng a Taurus don't auger well for the rate of acceptance by fans of the RWD Falcon. The Taurus is a car I really dislike driving. In fact, I couldn't wait to get out from behind the wheel. Fans of RWD are likely to have a similar reaction.

Oddly, the '10 Taurus is the only FWD car I've really enjoyed driving in recent years...and I'm a staunch RWD fan. Maybe it was partially because I liked the interior so much..

[Camino LS6]

That is odd, I found the Taurus to be downright unpleasant to drive. I honestly thought it would be much,much, better.

It's the sort of car I'd rather be a passenger in than a driver - and that's rare.

[Robert Hall]

That is odd, I found the Taurus to be downright unpleasant to drive. I honestly thought it would be much,much, better.

It's the sort of car I'd rather be a passenger in than a driver - and that's rare.

Admittedly, the only other FWD cars I've driven in the last 5 years (rentals) were a couple Impalas, a Grand Prix, a couple of current-gen Malibus, a couple of current-gen Fusions (which irritate me w/ their annoying distorted rear view mirrors), a previous gen Sonata, and a couple Cobalts.

The other recent Fords I've driven (rentals) are Grand Marquis' and Town Cars. Old-school, but I like them for their RWD/V8 nature, size, great outward visibility (esp. the GM) and comfort. The downside is the stuck-in-the-90s cabin tech, an area where the Taurus was a great improvement. The rearward visibility out of the Taurus was bad compared to the GM.

Edited January 13, 2011 by Cubical-aka-Moltar

[regfootball]

Not in Australia, it isn't.

Then there is the export market- essential to Holden and composed entirely of Commodore/Caprice variants...

camry + accord + altima + (name the other fwd appliances) = the sales positively dwarf the commodore (aU+export)

not saying the commodore doesn't matter at all, but you gotta really place it in perspective.

it's easier for the beancounters to euthanize it. the one little kid in the back row in class is lucky to be heard at all.

[Robert Hall]

camry + accord + altima + (name the other fwd appliances) = the sales positively dwarf the commodore (aU+export)

not saying the commodore doesn't matter at all, but you gotta really place it in perspective.

it's easier for the beancounters to euthanize it. the one little kid in the back row in class is lucky to be heard at all.

Sad..so the same all FWD $h! is happening in OZ also...

[crunksoulbrotha!!`]

If history has taught us anything, is this: Learn from your mistakes lest ye be doomed to repeat it. Now if Ford AU want to go FWD for Austrailia, then go ahead, but just remember what happened to GM when their big cars went FWD.Sales went down faster than the Titanic!!

[Camino LS6]

camry + accord + altima + (name the other fwd appliances) = the sales positively dwarf the commodore (aU+export)

not saying the commodore doesn't matter at all, but you gotta really place it in perspective.

it's easier for the beancounters to euthanize it. the one little kid in the back row in class is lucky to be heard at all.

Not sure what your trying to say here, Reg. In Australia, a RWD car is the best seller. It also happens to be the product of Australia's only home-grown brand, a key export, and central to the culture.

Not so easy to euthanize something like that.

[Carguy]

If history has taught us anything, is this: Learn from your mistakes lest ye be doomed to repeat it. Now if Ford AU want to go FWD for Austrailia, then go ahead, but just remember what happened to GM when their big cars went FWD.Sales went down faster than the Titanic!!

((Amen!!)) The loss of the affordable mid sized RWD models from GM/Ford ect. as they tried to PUSH us into FWD replacements forced us into Trucks! Now there is a chance to offer some nice RWD products again and they continue to push the inferior FWD models as before! Will they ever learn and admit their mistakes? I doubt it!

[dwightlooi]

sort of moronic and contradictory to say the alpha will have limited application due to 'exotic materials and construction' but in the next paragraph to say that zeta will need to adopt lightweight high tech materials to stay relevent.

as if what, the 'lightweight and high tech materials' aren't expensive in either application? wtf.

Not really...

There are certain parts of the car which are easy to substitute materials for. For instance, you can lighten the Zeta if you go to Aluminum Hoods, Fenders, Trunk Lids, etc. It is a lot harder to introduce a cast magnesium firewall cross member or high strength steel in the stressed underpan or tunnel if the platform was not originally designed around them.

In short, Alpha will be able to achieve a greater degree of mass efficiency than a Zeta retrofitted with light weight materials where practical. However, Alpha may also be innately more expensive because of the compulsory elements designed into the platform.

[regfootball]

Not sure what your trying to say here, Reg. In Australia, a RWD car is the best seller. It also happens to be the product of Australia's only home-grown brand, a key export, and central to the culture.

Not so easy to euthanize something like that.

AU's biggest seller is a niche volume here....

Not really...

There are certain parts of the car which are easy to substitute materials for. For instance, you can lighten the Zeta if you go to Aluminum Hoods, Fenders, Trunk Lids, etc. It is a lot harder to introduce a cast magnesium firewall cross member or high strength steel in the stressed underpan or tunnel if the platform was not originally designed around them.

In short, Alpha will be able to achieve a greater degree of mass efficiency than a Zeta retrofitted with light weight materials where practical. However, Alpha may also be innately more expensive because of the compulsory elements designed into the platform.

i see the difference.....problem with gm is they never do ANY of that....

[dwightlooi]

i see the difference.....problem with gm is they never do ANY of that....

Well... Alpha will be the litmus test... if GM is able to make good headway in weight control it'll start with Alpha. If Alpha weighs in at 3800 lbs we'll know that GM is either not particularly serious about weight discipline or are incapable of it.

Alpha needs to come in at no more than 3400 lbs for a lightly optioned car with a 4-cylinder engine, about 3600 lbs for a well equipped V6 and no more than 3700 lbs for an ATS-V with a small block V8. That's not really an ambitious target... it's about a 250 lbs savings over a comparably equipped Zeta and about on par with an E90 3-series. Perhaps GM can do better, but an Alpha at such weights this will be "good enough".

It's actually not that hard. A unibody with high strength steel at the crucial locations, a cast light alloy cross beam and hydro-formed sub-frame is worth about 100 lbs. Laser seam welding and thinner gauge material overall with 2-ply butting is good for another ~100lbs. Throw in a aluminum hood and roof panel and you are basically there.

GM has a few traditional advantages too. For instance, with GM's engines, big power is relatively light. Eg, BMW claimed that the 4.0 liter S65 V8 is the lightest mass production DOHC V8 in the world. That may be true. But at 202kg, it is heavy compared to the 183kg LS3 which makes 22 more hp and 133 lb-ft more torque.

[regfootball]

yeah, that indeed does sound like it, GM will need to demonstrate it pretty soon.

I doubt they are incapable, I think its all about manufacturing issues and money with GM most of the time. And execution.

[hyperv6]

The RWD Holden is the Silverodo of the down under market. Hard to kill a car that sells not so much in great numbers but in larger percentage of a smaller market.

The better lighter materials will have to come no matter if it is RWD or FWD. The key is to keep them affordable. The ememy is highet car prices as the Asian cars have gained ground in areas of MPG and cheaper prices of smaller cars. People there are also faces with the rising cost of cars and hate higher monthly payments.

They may still want RWD but GM needs to remain at a price the average buyer can still afford. If not someone will import something cheaper.

GM needs to make sure they also have a FWD to go with this to shore up and prevent lost sales to the other FWD makes that are gaining some ground. They need a RWD FWD 1-2 punch.

Some of these lighter materials will also get cheaper the more they are used. Right now many are not used much and the price remains high.

Edited January 24, 2011 by hyperv6