Some clarification....

[Chazman]

Lets put it like this so the debate is settled:

evok and chazman have contacts/sources/information that specifically state that the car is NOT being marked as either an 07 or 08. Chazman has actually said that no work was going on in NA on the car. I think evok has stated that there is no approved program right now. Is this right guys?

Now there is another camp, GuionM specifically, who has lead people to believe, based on sources, that Holden is running full steam ahead with the Camaro based upon their sources.

That being said either evok and Chaz aren't gettting the full story, the work that is going on is not an official program and so those who should know about it don't, or the car is not being worked on at the moment.

Now can we call this argument quits?

Saw this in the locked thread and just wanted to clarify since my name was brought up.

The bulk of vehicle platform work on Camaro is being done in Australia right now, but there is still work - design, powertrain, etc., etc., being done here in NA. There are no secret Australian programs. It would be silly for GM to even work that way.

Are there a bunch of Camaros running around down under? Probably not. Just guessing, but they may be at the point where mules are finally being built. And when I say mules, I don't mean real Camaros. I mean validation work being done on donor VE Commodores (or whatever), for example.

[NOS2006]

Wasn't it said that the Camaro's suspension was already developed and tested on the VE Commodore?

[Chazman]

Wasn't it said that the Camaro's suspension was already developed and tested on the VE Commodore?

AFAIK they will use the same suspension systems.

[Camino LS6]

We'll be seeing the production VEs from Holden very soon. That should answer some questions.

[91z4me]

Lets put it like this so the debate is settled:

evok and chazman have contacts/sources/information that specifically state that the car is NOT being marked as either an 07 or 08. Chazman has actually said that no work was going on in NA on the car. I think evok has stated that there is no approved program right now. Is this right guys?

Now there is another camp, GuionM specifically, who has lead people to believe, based on sources, that Holden is running full steam ahead with the Camaro based upon their sources.

That being said either evok and Chaz aren't gettting the full story, the work that is going on is not an official program and so those who should know about it don't, or the car is not being worked on at the moment.

Now can we call this argument quits?

Saw this in the locked thread and just wanted to clarify since my name was brought up.

The bulk of vehicle platform work on Camaro is being done in Australia right now, but there is still work - design, powertrain, etc., etc., being done here in NA. There are no secret Australian programs. It would be silly for GM to even work that way.

Are there a bunch of Camaros running around down under? Probably not. Just guessing, but they may be at the point where mules are finally being built. And when I say mules, I don't mean real Camaros. I mean validation work being done on donor VE Commodores (or whatever), for example.

I put you in that post because you and evok are in the longer timeframe camp together. I assumed that you were recieving at least some of the same information. No hard feelings I hope.

[Chazman]

I put you in that post because you and evok are in the longer timeframe camp together.  I assumed that you were recieving at least some of the same information.  No hard feelings I hope.

Oh no , not at all.

And as far as I can tell, evok and I have come to our conclusions independently.

[Chazman]

Oh BTW 91z, how can I format my avatar to look like your sig?

[91z4me]

Oh BTW 91z, how can I format my avatar to look like your sig?

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b152/91z...arosigsmall.jpg

Here is the URL of a smaller one I made for GMI. I think you can tell the board to use that url and it will automatically shrink it to fit, I don't know for sure though.

And Charlie the name is Casey.

Edit: I just tried it and it works for me.

Edited March 17, 2006 by 91z4me

[Chazman]

Thanks Casey!

[Camino LS6]

I'd like some feedback on this notion of mine, without any sniping at each other about accuracy. This is heavily based on a feeling I get that GM has some tricks up its sleeve regarding Camaro. I realize that some well-informed members here have reason to believe that this scenario is impossible and it may well be.

Never the less:

This is what I think we'll see:

A production version of Camaro at NAIAS in January '07

A fleet of pre-production/production spec Camaros at major auto events all through '07. I believe these cars will wear 40th anniversary colors and be considered '07 models. One will pace Indy. The cars will have a pedigree with a history of their promotional tour much like the first SSRs did. Some of these cars will find their way to private owners eventually.

If GM can find any way to do it, I expect to see a few regular production '07s with full-scale production of '08s starting late in '07 or early in '08.

[evok]

GM does not have any tricks up its sleaves. GM just lost 11 billion dollars in case anyone is paying attention.

A release date for production versus a production vehicle at 07 NAIAS are irrelevant when it comes to timing and the length of time it takes to get a vehicle to market. There is not a direct correlation in real terms.

Your timing is not possible. It cannot be done.

Anyone that leads you to believe otherwise has:

1) Bad information

or

2) Does not know how to interpret the information.

As I have stated many times before there is a very long lead time prior to the clock starting on a program. We are in that long lead time, planning and organizing phase.

Because as I last check the Camaro is not formally approved and is being worked on, does not mean that the program will be released faster in the process when or if the formal green light is given. That is the way the process works.

Behind the scenes I have shared and validated my information on numerious occasions. We are all in agreement that much of the timing that is being reported online is wrong. Status of the program is wrong or taken out of context.

I have information on the program that deals with the big picture of the program and at the stage that fit into the high level VDP.

So your timing not only can not happen because VDP does not work that fast, it is not planned to happen and has never been.

As much as I would love to admit I am wrong because a Camaro could be good for GM soon, it will not be here as soon as I would like. That is just the way things work at an OEM.

Also and this is a passing thought - rwd for NA is a very expensive program and will require a substancial investment. 11 billion dollars is alot of money to loose in one year. In about a month, we will soon see how the first quarter has been.

[Camino LS6]

GM does not have any tricks up its sleaves.  GM just lost 11 billion dollars in case anyone is paying attention.

A release date for production versus a production vehicle at 07 NAIAS are irrelevant when it comes to timing and the length of time it takes to get a vehicle to market.  There is not a direct correlation in real terms.

Your timing is not possible.  It cannot be done.

Anyone that leads you to believe otherwise has:

1) Bad information

or

2) Does not know how to interpret the information.

As I have stated many times before there is a very long lead time prior to the clock starting on a program.  We are in that long lead time, planning and organizing phase.

Because as I last check the Camaro is not formally approved and is being worked on, does not mean that the program will be released faster in the process when or if the formal green light is given.  That is the way the process works.

Behind the scenes I have shared and validated my information on numerious occasions.  We are all in agreement that much of the timing that is being reported online is wrong.  Status of the program is wrong or taken out of context.

I have information on the program that deals with the big picture of the program and at the stage that fit into the high level VDP. 

So your timing not only can not happen because VDP does not work that fast, it is not planned to happen and has never been.

As much as I would love to admit I am wrong because a Camaro could be good for GM soon, it will not be here as soon as I would like.  That is just the way things work at an OEM.

Also and this is a passing thought - rwd for NA is a very expensive program and will require a substancial investment.  11 billion dollars is alot of money to loose in one year.  In about a month, we will soon see how the first quarter has been.

OK, I'll accept this at face value. Do my notions about seeing a production spec car at NAIAS seem likely to you?

[Chicagoland]

The plant where NA Zeta's are made would have to be retooled like NOW, if "2007 40th Ann. Camaros" were to be built in less than a year.

Sure, it would be great if GM could whip up all new cars in days, but still be realistic.

[Camino LS6]

I think what has me holding out hope for the ealier scenario most is the fact that the VE Holdens are set to debut this year. To be fair, I remember mention that these cars will not be exactly the same as GMNA's Zeta buta great deal of commonality will be there. So, the question becomes what effect does all of that development have on the "usual" timeframe required to get a car to production?

[Camino LS6]

The plant where NA Zeta's are made would have to be retooled like NOW, if "2007 40th Ann. Camaros" were to be built in less than a year.

Sure, it would be great if GM could whip up all new cars in days, but still be realistic.

My ideas about 40th Ann. cars does not depend upon production being underway. I would not be a bit surprised if pre-production cars are actually used for this purpose.

[Chazman]

I think what has me holding out hope for the ealier scenario most is the fact that the VE Holdens are set to debut this year. To be fair, I remember mention that these cars will not be exactly the same as GMNA's Zeta buta great deal of commonality will be there. So, the question becomes what effect does all of that development have on the "usual" timeframe required to get a car to production?

Yeah, the VE Commodores are coming out this year. But Camaro will have substantial differences. The entire structure from the dash forward is unique to it. As is the upper structure. The platform is being created as we speak. It's on track...but it's not going to be out as soon as alot of people think/hope.

And other than just talk and proposals....at this very moment, there are only two Zeta cars for NA that are actually being worked on. Camaro and Impala.

[91z4me]

I think what has me holding out hope for the ealier scenario most is the fact that the VE Holdens are set to debut this year. To be fair, I remember mention that these cars will not be exactly the same as GMNA's Zeta buta great deal of commonality will be there. So, the question becomes what effect does all of that development have on the "usual" timeframe required to get a car to production?

Wheather or not Zeta is based on VE will not effect the lead time on suppliers and tooling. That is when the clock starts for production Camaro and we will likely hear things the same day that suppliers do. The question is how much time is there between now and the day suppliers and tool companies start getting work orders. Lutz said that a decision would be made within 6 monts of the debut. That means that the business case is still being built which means that only engineering/tooling/supply work which is being done on VE, which has been approved, is being done. Engineering evaluation mules may have been or are being created BUT that doesn't mean the program is approved and that the clock has started.

MY quesiton for those who know is: Once suppliers/tooling companies get the work orders/make bids how long will it take to get the production line up and running?

[Camino LS6]

Wheather or not Zeta is based on VE will not effect the lead time on suppliers and tooling.  That is when the clock starts for production Camaro and we will likely hear things the same day that suppliers do.  The question is how much time is there between now and the day suppliers and tool companies start getting work orders.  Lutz said that a decision would be made within 6 monts of the debut.  That means that the business case is still being built which means that only engineering/tooling/supply work which is being done on VE, which has been approved, is being done.  Engineering evaluation mules may have been or are being created BUT that doesn't mean the program is approved and that the clock has started.

MY quesiton for those who know is:  Once suppliers/tooling companies get the work orders/make bids how long will it take to get the production line up and running?

At which point, the additional variables of how much VE production speeds the process and plant choice come into play.

[evok]

OK, I'll accept this at face value. Do my notions about seeing a production spec car at NAIAS seem likely to you?

I am not aware that it will be there or not. But if it is at the show, it is not an indication that the vehicle will be out soon. GM could do it if they want to. There is nothing stopping them.

My suggestion to GM is not to show it. Wait until the 2008 show.

The 2006 Camaro concept was a mistake because it created unresonable expectations as to when the vehicle may reach production. They should have waited until the 2007 show, when the whole zeta plan could have been finalized with a workable approved plan in place.

[evok]

Wheather or not Zeta is based on VE will not effect the lead time on suppliers and tooling.  That is when the clock starts for production Camaro and we will likely hear things the same day that suppliers do.  The question is how much time is there between now and the day suppliers and tool companies start getting work orders.  Lutz said that a decision would be made within 6 monts of the debut.  That means that the business case is still being built which means that only engineering/tooling/supply work which is being done on VE, which has been approved, is being done.  Engineering evaluation mules may have been or are being created BUT that doesn't mean the program is approved and that the clock has started.

MY quesiton for those who know is:  Once suppliers/tooling companies get the work orders/make bids how long will it take to get the production line up and running?

Before RFQs can go out, the suppliers need to know what they are dealing with. That is the first task.

[thegriffon]

I think what has me holding out hope for the ealier scenario most is the fact that the VE Holdens are set to debut this year. To be fair, I remember mention that these cars will not be exactly the same as GMNA's Zeta but a great deal of commonality will be there. So, the question becomes what effect does all of that development have on the "usual" timeframe required to get a car to production?

Still 12-18 months from sign-off for a vehicle with all major structure and components shared with an existing model (merely re-skinned). The Camaro will not be such a vehicle (i.e. not merely a 2-door Commodore). A production concept with a lot of work under the skin still to go probably could not debut before the 2008 NAIAS. Calibration of the ECU and suspension settings for local market conditions may take 6 months alone (which is why the Gen IV V8 in the last VZ Commodores doesn't get AFM). If GM approves a MonteCarlo based on the next Monaro, it could come out before the Camaro.

[97regalGS]

at the risk of another warning, it sure is nice to read a thread based on some semblance of fact instead of wild speculation (or was that comment too sarcastic without enough constructive value?)

[z28luvr01]

at the risk of another warning, it sure is nice to read a thread based on some semblance of fact instead of wild speculation (or was that comment too sarcastic without enough constructive value?)

97RegalGS, please clear out your PM box. You're full. Thanks.

[Camino LS6]

Still 12-18 months from sign-off for a vehicle with all major structure and components shared with an existing model (merely re-skinned). The Camaro will not be such a vehicle (i.e. not merely a 2-door Commodore). A production concept with a lot of work under the skin still to go probably could not debut before the 2008 NAIAS. Calibration of the ECU and suspension settings for local market conditions may take 6 months alone (which is why the Gen IV V8 in the last VZ Commodores doesn't get AFM). If GM approves a MonteCarlo based on the next Monaro, it could come out before the Camaro.

Food for thought.

[Chazman]

If GM approves a MonteCarlo based on the next Monaro, it could come out before the Camaro.

That is unless the "Monaro replacement" is based on the Camaro.

[turbo200]

It's good to have a realistic timeframe showing up. I have hope, because I've been lead there. I would like to hear now, if possible, from the other camp of this subject.....how do you come up with the notion that the car will be coming sooner than what is written here? aside from commonality with VE, and "things being worked on" since apparently, the reality is nothing is really being worked on aside from the suspension and framework for VE [and Camaro and Impala design proposals].

[Chazman]

It's good to have a realistic timeframe showing up. I have hope, because I've been lead there. I would like to hear now, if possible, from the other camp of this subject.....how do you come up with the notion that the car will be coming sooner than what is written here? aside from commonality with VE, and "things being worked on" since apparently, the reality is nothing is really being worked on aside from the suspension and framework for VE [and Camaro and Impala design proposals].

Don't get the wrong idea turbo, there's work being done. The Impala will share a bunch with Commodore under the skin but the Camaro's platform is being created as we speak....based on Zeta. And I use the words 'being created' purposely to characterize at which point of development it's at.

Edited March 18, 2006 by Chazman

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but how much does the fact that Zeta work has already been done (Before Lutz cancelled it) factor into the equation?

I would rather see the weaker divisions get RWD before the bookends (I.E. Buick and Pontiac versions) And those were the lead on the old Zeta program.

[97regalGS]

97RegalGS, please clear out your PM box. You're full. Thanks.

done

[Sixty8panther]

The sooner the better btu quality of the product is more important than the speed it cmoes to market.

Having said this it sucks that for the second time since 1964 GM was caught with it's pants down as Mustang sales made headlines. Once again Chevy is playing catchup.

Better late than never though.

[Guest YellowJacket894]

Well, want to know what I think? (Many of you probably don't, but here I go anyway.)

The Mustang GT Concept car debuted at the 2003 Detroit Auto Show, am I correct? And that concept slightly to mostly previewed the production car in 2005, right? Well, I forsee the record skipping back and repeating here. We see a concept in 2006, wait two years, see the real thing in 2008 -- maybe late 2007 -- and the whole Camaro issue will be out of the water.

So, I think we'll see the real deal setting at John Q. Everyone's Chevrolet in Anytown, USA two years from now in 2008. Makes sense to me.

The Camaro reurning in early 2007 -- and early 2009 or 2010 for that matter -- was a little bit of a fairy tale when you sit down and use some common sense.

Captain Obvious over and out.

Edited March 18, 2006 by YellowJacket894

[Guest Josh]

GM does not have any tricks up its sleaves.  GM just lost 11 billion dollars in case anyone is paying attention.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

*snicker*

This is where the tricks start to come out. It's an early Halloween. A trick....and a treat.

The board is approving many things that are on the table right now.

'07 is now looking very, very good. BUT WAIT........don't believe me.

[knightfan26917]

If GM approves a MonteCarlo based on the next Monaro, it could come out before the Camaro.

Hmmm... Maybe. But, then again, I think quite a few GM enthusiasts will be unhappy if that happens, since we've seen the Camaro concept and it has (from what I've heard anyway) done quite well in the "build it now" category....

Interesting thought, tho.....

Cort, "Mr MC" / "Mr Road Trip", 32swm/pig valve/pacemaker

MC:family.IL.guide.future = http://www.chevyasylum.com/cort/

Models.HO = http://www.chevyasylum.com/cort/trainroom.html

What's it like to buy your favorite car brand new? Wish I knew...

"You've made a fool of everyone" ... Jet ... 'Look What You've Done'

[97regalGS]

*snicker*

This is where the tricks start to come out. It's an early Halloween. A trick....and a treat.

The board is approving many things that are on the table right now.

'07 is now looking very, very good. BUT WAIT........don't believe me.

Is that because GM 'shelved' the Outlook?

Before the ISP blows up again and we lose all posts and have to start from scratch again, can someone please back this up so we can finally have some proof of the great wisdom of some of the unsung and unrecognized gurus of the industry that are here amongst our midst.

[Camino LS6]

Is that because GM 'shelved' the Outlook?

Before the ISP blows up again and we lose all posts and have to start from scratch again, can someone please back this up so we can finally have some proof of the great wisdom of some of the unsung and unrecognized gurus of the industry that are here amongst our midst.

Don't ruin a good thread,Regal. If you have nothing of value to add, don't post.

[guionM]

Seems I'm missing a good thread here.

I'm going to say some things (hopefully nothing I shouldn't), and I'll leave it to everyone to ponder. Sorry no dates, model names, or blueprints. Things are moving way too fast and often with Zeta to jepordize connections now.

1st, Holden is supplying the suspension. The IRS and the front strut suspension design is on the VE. All the durability testing is done & the car will be in production in about 6 months or so. That's an area that GM-NA doesn't have to do. Saves time.

2nd, the Camaro, Impala, and the other Zetas aren't going into styling clinics. They'll be shown at autoshows, or at limited showings to members of the press, insiders, some stockholders, and various outside VIPs. This saves time in design evolution. The cars don't have to go back for styling revisions, and the cars aren't "Designed by Comittee".

3. The VE Zeta will share alot of structural stampings (or mildly revised ones) with the current VZ which was what our Zeta was initially based on. These cars were at the 18-24 month timeframe when GM-NA cancelled them early last year. Evidently, these were transitional cars since there was yet another Zeta (the "volume" version destined for Chevy, including Camaro) that was due in the 2010/2011 timeframe, and would have likely been expanded beyond Chevy.

What has essentially been done is that GM-NA skipped over a transition Zeta and accelerated the next Zeta (or you can also say GM-NA created their own version using Holden's parts, which Holden will probally adopt early next decade).

When GM picked up their pens again on Zeta mid last year, it was to develop the "Chevy" Zeta. GM has cancelled the new Trailblazer to fund this program, and postponed the next Malibu, and made alot of other changes.

What's being missed by those who say there's no GTO being worked on is that the GTO (and certain other Zetas) are done (remember...18 to 24 months from production when shelved early last year?). The GTO (and other Zeta cars) will have their design transfered to the "Chevy Zeta" structure. That's why the only thing that's noticed is the Impala & Camaro, because that's where all the construction work is. The other cars are for all purposes nothing more than a different skin. Something Cobalt has shown can be done in UNDER 18 months. So has the Saturn Sky. That's what's going on this time.

Moving on to timeframe. Anything that reaches GM's final approval is 18-24 months away from production, depending on how much money is being thrown into the program. It's easy to look at GM's losses today and declare that GM's going to cancel or delay programs, but you need to look at what GM's PRIORITY PROGRAMS are and why.

Oshawa #2 is scheduled to end Grand Prix & Lecrosse production in 2008, and Oshawa #1 is scheduled to end Monte Carlo and Impala in 2009. No product is scheduled for these plants beyond these years. That has to be settled very, very soon.... as in THIS summer.

GM also realizes that it is missing alot of potential sales by not having a RWD sedan that's capable of being used as a "aspirational" performance sedan, & suitable for law enforcement and taxi use. Pontiac has a glairing hole in it's sedan lineup that's almost as bad as Chevy's. GM has known it needed a RWD performance coupe in the mold of the Mustang. GM also wants to have a vehicle line that showcases the dramatic shift in styling and the types of cars they produce. This RWD structure is THE top priority at GM now that GMT900 is done. Don't fool yourself that it isn't.

When judging how quickly things can be done, it's a mistake to use timelines from a few years ago. Of course, there's no way in hell you're going to see a Camaro in time for it's 40th anniversary. The current target date makes it (and a few other Zetas) solidly 2009 models. I've posted that if I wer betting my home and property, I'd say 2009. The reason I'd say 2009 (that's model year, not calander year) is because there is being time allowed for last minute goofs (like happened with Solstice) and a fairly conservative gestation time for OEM manufacturers.

GM has monthly meetings regarding the progress of certain projects, including the Zeta. By the time they reach the internet (or traditional sources) it's usually at least a month or 2 old (and obsolete) already. I've posted quite a few times that unless you are talking with someone with their hands directly in the pot, the info isn't going to be up to date. Also, GM talks about things after it happens. Whether it's Mark Reuss talking about what would have to be done to create a Camaro chassis, or Bob Lutz saying the GTO is definately on. These are old news that typically is cleared or is given parameters by GM's legal department (believe it or not, talking about future models in many cases is cause for a lawsuit by GM stockholders!) before it is mentioned.

So when I talk about a Pontiac sedan drawn up, or a GTO for 2008 (which I started mentioning back in January), or Camaro's seemingly shortening projected production date, it's not just pie in the sky optimism. Zeta is GM's most important project right now. They are pulling out all stops in getting these cars to market, taking what they've learned through other recently developed vehicles, and even essentially bringing alot of other projects to a near or total standstill.

I've laid everything out on the table as to what's going on (hopefully without burning any bridges), and hope this either provides clairification, or at least gives a bit of perspective of what's going on outside the view of what us info getters (including myself) normally get.

But in the end, it's still going to take a press release from GM or a car in the showroom before the facts are known.

I'm comfortable waiting till then.

[hyperv6]

Seems I'm missing a good thread here.

I'm going to say some things (hopefully nothing I shouldn't), and I'll leave it to everyone to ponder. Sorry no dates, model names, or blueprints. Things are moving way too fast and often with Zeta to jepordize connections now.

1st, Holden is supplying the suspension. The IRS and the front strut suspension design is on the VE. All the durability testing is done & the car will be in production in about 6 months or so. That's an area that GM-NA doesn't have to do. Saves time.

2nd, the Camaro, Impala, and the other Zetas aren't going into styling clinics. They'll be shown at autoshows, or at limited showings to members of the press, insiders, some stockholders, and various outside VIPs. This saves time in design evolution. The cars don't have to go back for styling revisions, and the cars aren't "Designed by Comittee".

3. The VE Zeta will share alot of structural stampings (or mildly revised ones) with the current VZ which was what our Zeta was initially based on. These cars were at the 18-24 month timeframe when GM-NA cancelled them early last year. Evidently, these were transitional cars since there was yet another Zeta (the "volume" version destined for Chevy, including Camaro) that was due in the 2010/2011 timeframe, and would have likely been expanded beyond Chevy.

What has essentially been done is that GM-NA skipped over a transition Zeta and accelerated the next Zeta (or you can also say GM-NA created their own version using Holden's parts, which Holden will probally adopt early next decade).

When GM picked up their pens again on Zeta mid last year, it was to develop the "Chevy" Zeta. GM has cancelled the new Trailblazer to fund this program, and postponed the next Malibu, and made alot of other changes.

What's being missed by those who say there's no GTO being worked on is that the GTO (and certain other Zetas) are done (remember...18 to 24 months from production when shelved early last year?).  The GTO (and other Zeta cars) will have their design transfered to  the "Chevy Zeta" structure. That's why the only thing that's noticed is the Impala & Camaro, because that's where all the construction work is. The other cars are for all purposes nothing more than a different skin. Something Cobalt has shown can be done in UNDER 18 months. So has the Saturn Sky. That's what's going on this time.

Moving on to timeframe. Anything that reaches GM's final approval is 18-24 months away from production, depending on how much money is being thrown into the program. It's easy to look at GM's losses today and declare that GM's going to cancel or delay programs, but you need to look at what GM's PRIORITY PROGRAMS are and why.

Oshawa #2 is scheduled to end Grand Prix & Lecrosse production in 2008, and Oshawa #1 is scheduled to end Monte Carlo and Impala in 2009. No product is scheduled for these plants beyond these years. That has to be settled very, very soon.... as in THIS summer.

GM also realizes that it is missing alot of potential sales by not having a RWD sedan that's capable of being used as a "aspirational" performance sedan, & suitable for law enforcement and taxi use. Pontiac has a glairing hole in it's sedan lineup that's almost as bad as Chevy's. GM has known it needed a RWD performance coupe in the mold of the Mustang. GM also wants to have a vehicle line that showcases the dramatic shift in styling and the types of cars they produce. This RWD structure is THE top priority at GM now that GMT900 is done. Don't fool yourself that it isn't.

When judging how quickly things can be done, it's a mistake to use timelines from a few years ago. Of course, there's no way in hell you're going to see a Camaro in time for it's 40th anniversary. The current target date makes it (and a few other Zetas) solidly 2009 models. I've posted that if I wer betting my home and property, I'd say 2009. The reason I'd say 2009 (that's model year, not calander year) is because there is being time allowed for last minute goofs (like happened with Solstice) and a fairly conservative gestation time for OEM manufacturers.

GM has monthly meetings regarding the progress of certain projects, including the Zeta. By the time they reach the internet (or traditional sources) it's usually at least a month or 2 old (and obsolete) already. I've posted quite a few times that unless you are talking with someone with their hands directly in the pot, the info isn't going to be up to date. Also, GM talks about things after it happens. Whether it's Mark Reuss talking about what would have to be done to create a Camaro chassis, or Bob Lutz saying the GTO is definately on. These are old news that typically is cleared or is given parameters by GM's legal department (believe it or not, talking about future models in many cases is cause for a lawsuit by GM stockholders!) before it is mentioned.

So when I talk about a Pontiac sedan drawn up, or a GTO for 2008 (which I started mentioning back in January), or Camaro's seemingly shortening projected production date, it's not just pie in the sky optimism. Zeta is GM's most important project right now. They are pulling out all stops in getting these cars to market, taking what they've learned through other recently developed vehicles, and even essentially bringing alot of other projects to a near or total standstill.

I've laid everything out on the table as to what's going on (hopefully without burning any bridges), and hope this either provides clairification, or at least gives a bit of perspective of what's going on outside the view of what us info getters (including myself) normally get.

But in the end, it's still going to take a press release from GM or a car in the showroom before the facts are known.

I'm comfortable waiting till then.

Thanks Great Info! Thanks for posting.

[guionM]

On a side note, for what it's worth, the GTO design was done before Camaro's &

though most of the VE Commodore is based on the VZ, the floorpan of NA Zeta & Holden's is pretty much if not exactly the same.

[Chazman]

On a side note, for what it's worth, the GTO design was done before Camaro's &

though most of the VE Commodore is based on the VZ, the floorpan of NA Zeta & Holden's is pretty much if not exactly the same.

Sure, various GTO design proposals were done over a year and a half ago, but those haven't been touched since.

Obviously, judging by his Geneva comments, Bob Lutz wants a new GTO. But at this point we don't know what form it would take....nor does GM. One of the proposals from 12-18 months ago? A "CLS type" coupe? Retro? Modern? 2 door? 4 door?

[ehaase]

Fascinating post, GuionM. I have long felt that the 2009 model year was the earliest we would see any Zetas, but GM can't afford to delay much longer than that.

Although some of the posters here from the Midwest and Great Lakes are big fans of FWD, GM needs powerful RWD cars to compete on the east and west coasts, in my opinion.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

*snicker*

This is where the tricks start to come out. It's an early Halloween. A trick....and a treat.

The board is approving many things that are on the table right now.

'07 is now looking very, very good. BUT WAIT........don't believe me.

I dunno man.... Hell, they'll prolly just cancel or delay them all in 2 months like they apparently did with all those revolutionary products that included GMT361.

(Sorry, I had to be Mr. Negative---it's my job here)

Is that because GM 'shelved' the Outlook?

Before the ISP blows up again and we lose all posts and have to start from scratch again, can someone please back this up so we can finally have some proof of the great wisdom of some of the unsung and unrecognized gurus of the industry that are here amongst our midst.

Yes, it is!!!!

Seriously, give Josh a break.... He was wrong 1 time in like 5 years, or about the SAME rate as our coveted insiders.

1st, Holden is supplying the suspension. The IRS and the front strut suspension design is on the VE. All the durability testing is done & the car will be in production in about 6 months or so. That's an area that GM-NA doesn't have to do. Saves time.

Very logical and I'm exceptionally pleased to hear GM FINALLY starting to work as a global company!

2nd, the Camaro, Impala, and the other Zetas aren't going into styling clinics. They'll be shown at autoshows, or at limited showings to members of the press, insiders, some stockholders, and various outside VIPs. This saves time in design evolution. The cars don't have to go back for styling revisions, and the cars aren't "Designed by Comittee".

Also very good... NO bland homonogenized designs.

3. The VE Zeta will share alot of structural stampings (or mildly revised ones) with the current VZ which was what our Zeta was initially based on. These cars were at the 18-24 month timeframe when GM-NA cancelled them early last year. Evidently, these were transitional cars since there was yet another Zeta (the "volume" version destined for Chevy, including Camaro) that was due in the 2010/2011 timeframe, and would have likely been expanded beyond Chevy.

What has essentially been done is that GM-NA skipped over a transition Zeta and accelerated the next Zeta (or you can also say GM-NA created their own version using Holden's parts, which Holden will probally adopt early next decade).

Given this point....

When GM picked up their pens again on Zeta mid last year, it was to develop the "Chevy" Zeta. GM has cancelled the new Trailblazer to fund this program, and postponed the next Malibu, and made alot of other changes.

AND this point, I have a FEW questions...

1) Are they going to just let GMT360 wither and die, or are they going to pick up 361 again later or are they going to cover that ground with GMT900 and the Lambda's, or more specifically, are we going to see a Lambda TB replacement?

2) Which Malibu did they postpone???? Either way I'm NOT too hip on this idea. GM NEEDS volume and GM NEEDS to fix the Epsilon cars BADLY This ESPECIALLY must happen if Saab is to become relevant and Pontiac is to survive. So anyway, was it the NG Malibu or the EpII Malibu? What worries me about the NG Malibu is that AH-HA has ALREADY stated that it is nice but *MIGHT* be dated even by the time it hits streets on a normal timeframe, so a delay of any sort CAN'T be good. Of course, I guess GM will at least have the Aura in that category.

3) If indeed They have postponed the NG Malibu then what are the chances that since NG and Ep II are apparently only 2 years or so apart they'll just leap frog NG entirely and go straight into Ep II MUCH like they're doing here with global RWD?

What's being missed by those who say there's no GTO being worked on is that the GTO (and certain other Zetas) are done (remember...18 to 24 months from production when shelved early last year?). The GTO (and other Zeta cars) will have their design transfered to the "Chevy Zeta" structure. That's why the only thing that's noticed is the Impala & Camaro, because that's where all the construction work is. The other cars are for all purposes nothing more than a different skin. Something Cobalt has shown can be done in UNDER 18 months. So has the Saturn Sky. That's what's going on this time.

Very successfully I might add. And THIS point is why I asked that question. Why would GM need to re-engineer everything when GTO and I'm assuming the Buick sedan or convertible flagship READ: Velite (The certain other Zeta) are 1) WELL underway and complete in some aspects and 2 essentially the same thing as Holden is rolling out anyway in Austrailia. Wouldn't it be similar to the original Holden sourced GTO in that all that is needed is skin? (hopefully more differences this time) Afterall, apparently the differences between Global RWD and the original Zeta are minor and component oriented.

Moving on to timeframe. Anything that reaches GM's final approval is 18-24 months away from production, depending on how much money is being thrown into the program. It's easy to look at GM's losses today and declare that GM's going to cancel or delay programs, but you need to look at what GM's PRIORITY PROGRAMS are and why.

I'm not so sure about that... GM has committed itself time and again to NOT cut product investment this time around and they know it's essential to a recovery. Plus, according to most articles it's not really a declaration of more lost money so much as it is a reallocation of that lost money.

Oshawa #2 is scheduled to end Grand Prix & Lecrosse production in 2008,

Which poses a HUGE problem for Pontiac *IF* the most recent G8 timeframe I've seen is accurate. And, secondly Lacrosse will supposedly move to Ep II and go where??? (I'm not being contradictory, I honestly haven't heard)

and Oshawa #1 is scheduled to end Monte Carlo and Impala in 2009.

Which would open it right up for a RWD replacement and the "other" Chevy coupe AND in the correct timeframe.

No product is scheduled for these plants beyond these years. That has to be settled very, very soon.... as in THIS summer.

Or, as Lutz would say; "Within the next 6 months" :AH-HA_wink:

GM also realizes that it is missing alot of potential sales by not having a RWD sedan that's capable of being used as a "aspirational" performance sedan, & suitable for law enforcement and taxi use. Pontiac has a glairing hole in it's sedan lineup that's almost as bad as Chevy's. GM has known it needed a RWD performance coupe in the mold of the Mustang. GM also wants to have a vehicle line that showcases the dramatic shift in styling and the types of cars they produce. This RWD structure is THE top priority at GM now that GMT900 is done. Don't fool yourself that it isn't.

But realistically, is that a good thing or a BAD thing??? Shouldn't we be focusing more on expanding Lambda, re-engineering Thetas and getting Ep II on line?

So when I talk about a Pontiac sedan drawn up, or a GTO for 2008 (which I started mentioning back in January), or Camaro's seemingly shortening projected production date, it's not just pie in the sky optimism. Zeta is GM's most important project right now. They are pulling out all stops in getting these cars to market, taking what they've learned through other recently developed vehicles, and even essentially bringing alot of other projects to a near or total standstill.

Again, I'm not so sure if that's wise.... GM needs to CONFRONT Japan Inc on the Malibu level before they completely take that market too.

On a side note, for what it's worth, the GTO design was done before Camaro's &

though most of the VE Commodore is based on the VZ, the floorpan of NA Zeta & Holden's is pretty much if not exactly the same.

I'd just like to add a couple of things to this... 1) THis links up with the media reports of sneak peeks at "possible RWD Pontiacs" in that, like the pre released Camaro pictures, the design team could've been working on it. 2) A few of us here at C&G have sources that claim pretty much the same thing and that Camaro was actually the second Zeta design.

[Chazman]

I1) Are they going to just let GMT360 wither and die, or are they going to pick up 361 again later or are they going to cover that ground with GMT900 and the Lambda's, or more specifically, are we going to see a Lambda TB replacement?

GMT361 appears completely dead. GMT360 will get a freshening somewhere down the road.

[dfmoeller]

The below quote is a sample of an ongoing debate on this and other forums regarding whether GM should accelerate Zeta or accelerate the Epsilon II. I've been giving it some thought, and I've come to the conclusion that if they don't do both, they are probably toast. They need both and they need them yesterday.

Here we go:

The effort on the 900 series trucks showed it was possible to focus the company and do things right. The Enclave shows that the crossovers are going where they need to be.

BUT, GM needs 4 things critically:

1. GM NEEDS a high volume mass appeal car (the Accord/Camry fighter) - This is where the profits are. Everything else is supporting effort.

Delta and Epsilon are better than earlier efforts, but still not where they need to be. GM keeps missing the mark. That only leaves Epsilon II as the candidate.

The Epi2's need quality, reliability, assembly fit and finish, interior upgrade, world class engineering and mechanical features (fwd ok, even preferred) and last but not least, great STYLING.

But, the truth is, once someone settles in with a car brand, he stays until something forces him to switch. Even if GM builds this uber-appliance, GMs customer base has switched and just making a better car, simply won't bring anyone back. Epi2 can be the best car ever, and the buying public will yawn. GM has got to give buyers a reason to switch, and to do that, they need to:

2. Get buyers into the showrooms, GM has got to bring forward some "gotta have" cars. They need cars that are so compelling that buyers will take a chance with a GM product even if they suspect they won't get as GOOD a car (don't flame me, I don't believe this, but it seems everyone else most certainly does believe this). Not just one hit, but several. The only thing that fits this bill is Zeta, but luckily, it may just fill it very well, indeed. The Camaro is the biggest hit in the auto enthusiast world in many years. Its the first American vehicle that everybody I know openly professes they would buy without reservations, import buyers, high end buyers, low end buyers, young buyers, old buyers, men, women, everyone. Every day that passes without it in production pushes GM closer to the "B" word. It is said the Impala is equally, if not more, stunning. I only hope the other production candidates are also knockouts. The RWD and V8s play into this by appealing to the enthusiasts. The styling, so far, seems beautiful; not just new, fresh, or edgy, but truly timeless. GM is not going to sell millions of these each year, but these cars can very well get people into the showrooms, and that is their real task, along with not losing money.

3. Price, or more accurately, margins must be improved. GM must reduce their costs of each car. The real window of opportunity here is during the next round of contract negotiations. If they can't lower their fixed costs by at least somewhere around $800-1000 per car, they are toast. Its just that simple. Time will tell.

4. Time. The biggest problem now is in getting there. GM may just run out of money before the above happens. It may be ancient history now, but the same thing happened to Packard. They had a killer product line set for 1958 intro, but ran out of runway and had to accept a horrible deal with Studebaker. People need to stop deluding themselves; dreams of a bankruptcy driven reorg with cash in hand, and a broken union can only happen if the creditors back off, and that seems unlikely. If GM runs out of money, show over. If GM declares bankruptcy before they run out of cash, remember GM has a ton of debt to go with their remaining cash, the debtors get to pick the carcass first. With the new $11 billion loss, they don't have much time to turn this ship around. That burn rate is staggering!!! Even if they start selling off pieces, it may not be enough. How much is Saab worth, couple billion? That only buys 3 months. Hummer? I doubt they could even get one billion. Who would buy it? GM doesn't have until 2010 to get these products out. I'm not a financial guy, but this seems pretty elementary.

Summary: GM has got to have -

Class LEADING Epsilon II

Zeta

Union concessions

Do It NOW

The profits from the new trucks and crossovers may get them through the bigger hurdles that come. Now they need to turn their attention to both Epi2 and Zeta. Either one alone won't get them where they need to go.

Just my $.02, but I really hope someone at GM is listening and can give us some evidence that they are headed in these directions.

Doug

But realistically, is that a good thing or a BAD thing??? Shouldn't we be focusing more on expanding Lambda, re-engineering Thetas and getting Ep II on line?

Again, I'm not so sure if that's wise.... GM needs to CONFRONT Japan Inc on the Malibu level before they completely take that market too.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

1. GM NEEDS a high volume mass appeal car (the Accord/Camry fighter) - This is where the profits are.  Everything else is supporting effort.

Agreed. And Ep II will most certainly be higher volume than Global RWD.

The Epi2's need quality, reliability, assembly fit and finish, interior upgrade, world class engineering and mechanical features (fwd ok, even preferred) and last but not least, great STYLING.

But, the truth is, once someone settles in with a car brand, he stays until something forces him to switch.  Even if GM builds this uber-appliance,  GMs customer base has switched and just making a better car, simply won't bring anyone back.  Epi2 can be the best car ever, and the buying public will yawn.  GM has got to give buyers a reason to switch, and to do that, they need to:

2. Get buyers into the showrooms, GM has got to bring forward some "gotta have" cars.  They need cars that are so compelling that buyers will take a chance with a GM product even if they suspect they won't get as GOOD a car (don't flame me, I don't believe this, but it seems everyone else most certainly does believe this).  Not just one hit, but several.

That is an EXCELLENT piece of writing right there. It illustrates 2 points perfectly. 1) Emotion is the one pure factor that will SELL a car to an opponents clientele these days. Peter Delorenzo said it best a few years back; now that quality, reliability and a certainlevel of performance are EXPECTED, the new deciding factor in vehicle purchases is increasingly becoming EMOTIONAL APPEAL. The styling of the car, the feelings it brings to mind and it's identity and features.

PERFECT EXAMPLE: My girlfriend and I are BOTH communist-like american car lovers. We both drive domestic only and we both HATE on imports as much as possible. The other day a friend of ours took my girlfriend somewhere in her (the friends) VW Passat. My girlfriend comes back and tells me; "THat is a gorgeous car! I'm loyal to DEtroit and all but that was a NICE car."

I told her that she had illustrated my point (exactly) that EMOTION and emotional response to a car TRANSCENDS logic. She and I BOTH know what atrocious quality VW has, yet we are both VERY drawn to the car simply because of the emotions it envokes. THEREFORE, it is ESSENTIAL for GM and Ford to LEARN how to evoke that response and apply it to their designs in order for them to win consideration back from BIASED consumers. The FEELING has to cancel out the wall of (false) logic that years of being told that domestic are 'inferior' has built. THAT is the key to Detroit's success, well, along with the EXPECTED virtues, such as quality and ammenities.

2) is VOLUME... In Psychology (I'm a psychology major) one of the first things we are taught is that PREJUDICE people WILL NOT CHANGE THEIR VIEWS BECAUSE OF MINOR contrtadictions to that view. Prejudice is sometimes SO strong that it can be triggered by even cues unrelated to the object of the prejudice. WHAT THIS MEANS: GM or DEtroit for that matter will NEVER change the prejudice against them without a MASS exodus of PROOF that smacks these people on the head and makes them question WHY they are prejudice. ONE model launch here and one model launch there will likely NEVER do the trick. In order for people to wake up and take notice, GM is going to have to make a HUGE splash in a BIG way with SEVERAL CONSISTENT hits. Basically, in order to fight the prejudice against american cars, american carmakers are going to have to BOMBARD the consumer with evidence, spectacular product, testimonials and all sorts of other positive info before those who are prejudice will ever even begin to question their own beliefs.

The only thing that fits this bill is Zeta, but luckily, it may just fill it very well, indeed.  The Camaro is the biggest hit in the auto enthusiast world in many years.  Its the first American vehicle that everybody I know openly professes they would buy without reservations, import buyers, high end buyers, low end buyers, young buyers, old buyers, men, women, everyone.  Every day that passes without it in production pushes GM closer to the "B" word.  It is said the Impala is equally, if not more, stunning.  I only hope the other production candidates are also knockouts.  The RWD and V8s play into this by appealing to the enthusiasts.  The styling, so far, seems beautiful; not just new, fresh, or edgy, but truly timeless.  GM is not going to sell millions of these each year, but these cars can very well get people into the showrooms, and that is their real task, along with not losing money.

I agree.... The Camaro and the Enclave are PROBABLY two of the best received GM cars in years, and that makes me hopeful for the future. GM *CAN* change opinions if they keep producing knock outs like the Solstice, Sky (Walt has a friend that had driven Toyota's all his life and was so excited about the Sky that he put a deposit on it before even seeing it), Camaro and Enclave. THE PROBLEM though is two fold, 1) CAN GM roll these new introductions out fast enough to bombard the consumer. and 2) CAN GM correctly market them so as to INFORM the biased consumer that their prejudice is in fact WRONG-O.... THOSE aspects are what worry me the most.

GM's problem is not the product... It's the PERCEPTION. A G6 competes fine with an Accord for the everyday driver, BUT the perception of the Accord is 10 fold better so it gets the sale.

3. Price, or more accurately, margins must be improved.  GM must reduce their costs of each car.  The real window of opportunity here is during the next round of contract negotiations.  If they can't lower their fixed costs by at least somewhere around $800-1000 per car, they are toast.  Its just that simple.  Time will tell.

Agree 100%

4. Time.  The biggest problem now is in getting there.  GM may just run out of money before the above happens.  It may be ancient history now, but the same thing happened to Packard.  They had a killer product line set for 1958 intro, but ran out of runway and had to accept a horrible deal with Studebaker.  People need to stop deluding themselves; dreams of a bankruptcy driven reorg with cash in hand, and a broken union can only happen if the creditors back off, and that seems unlikely.  If GM runs out of money, show over.  If GM declares bankruptcy before they run out of cash, remember GM has a ton of debt to go with their remaining cash, the debtors get to pick the carcass first.  With the new $11 billion loss, they don't have much time to turn this ship around.  That burn rate is staggering!!!  Even if they start selling off pieces, it may not be enough.  How much is Saab worth, couple billion?  That only buys 3 months.  Hummer?  I doubt they could even get one billion.  Who would buy it?  GM doesn't have until 2010 to get these products out.

I agree... But, GMT900 should help this tremendously. According to reports, GM makes as much as 10K per GMT900 sold. It's going to be a photo finish though, that's for sure.

I'm not a financial guy, but this seems pretty elementary.

Summary:  GM has got to have -

Class LEADING Epsilon II

Zeta

Union concessions

Do It NOW

The profits from the new trucks and crossovers may get them through the bigger hurdles that come. Now they need to turn their attention to both Epi2 and Zeta.  Either one alone won't get them where they need to go.

Just my $.02, but I really hope someone at GM is listening and can give us some evidence that they are headed in these directions.

Doug

EXCELLENT POST!!!

[Camino LS6]

One thing we can count on is that an awful lot of people really care about this. I see that as a positive sign. Great thread!

[Chazman]

Maybe this is a dumb question, but how much does the fact that Zeta work has already been done (Before Lutz cancelled it) factor into the equation?

Work done for the NA Zeta's before their cancellation was limited to design work and some computer math for structure and packaging. IOW, not as much developement as you may think.

After those programs were cancelled (G8, GTO/Chevy Coupe), work started in earnest on the "Camaro". Lot's of initial engineering and packaging work was done on Camaro and Impala before they were transferred to Holden several months ago.

[evok]

So now that we are not all that far off after all -

One thing is certain from the above discussion -

2007 is OUT.

))<>((

Edited March 19, 2006 by evok

[guionM]

GMT361 appears completely dead. GMT360 will get a freshening somewhere down the road.

Completely dead implies that the truck will be killed without a replacement. Thios isn't true. It will eventually be replaced. It's just that this carline based on Zeta is the most important thing in GM's pipeline right now, and everything else is on hold because of it.

Yep, look for reskinning and interiors soon. Hardly leaving the truck for dead.

Work done for the NA Zeta's before their cancellation was limited to design work and some computer math for structure and packaging. IOW, not as much developement as you may think...

"Computer math" = design adapted top a vehicles hardpoints = design done.

So now that we are not all that far off after all -

One thing is certain from the above discussion -

2007 is OUT.

))<>((

Most certainly won't be 2007MY! We are already in MY2007!

2008 would be a big rush, but definately not inpossible. 2008MY ends in 21 months. Word is interiors take only a year, and with this new machine that doesn't need tooled stampings, only....... "Computer Math" programed into it ........ to create a body panel, almost anything's possible.

[Chazman]

Completely dead implies that the truck will be killed without a replacement. Thios isn't true. It will eventually be replaced. It's just that this carline based on Zeta is the most important thing in GM's pipeline right now, and everything else is on hold because of it.

Yep, look for reskinning and interiors soon. Hardly leaving the truck for dead.

"

You're misunderstanding me Guy. GMT361 is dead. The GMT360 TrailBlazer will continue....with a freshening down the road.

[evok]

2008 would be a big rush, but definately not inpossible. 2008MY ends in 21 months.

2008 MY is impossible based upon the status and timing of the program. The dates for the vehicle are out there. Key milestones are still a ways away with the suppliers, though the program ice breakers have started over the last few weeks. Lutz should be retired before this vehicle comes out.

Also - when zeta was put sent back for a dynamite and rebuild last year - the GMX-285 was still the lead vehicle prior to it getting the final axe. 285 was to be initially released in about a year. When 285 went through a second VPI study and re-timed - SOP was pushed back accordingly. Now that 285 has become the Camaro in spirit, the time has been somewhat carried over. When 285 was pushed back it was pushed back for a true rebuild and that was reflected in the timing.

and with this new machine that doesn't need tooled stampings, only....... "Computer Math" programed into it ........ to create a body panel, almost anything's possible.

Are you refering to a Replicator?

Edited March 20, 2006 by evok