Some good employment news

[trinacriabob]

The BLS releases their state-by-state employment stats today. They release at around this time every month.

The news is that 36 states posted unemployment drops and 8 states posted increases. It's going in the right direction. California is STILL over 12%.

Here's the link:

BLS Labor U.E. by state

I interviewed for a different job on Dec. 3, was interviewed again on Dec. 8 and then found out on Dec. 14 that I didn't get it. It took me about 1 hour to get over it. I thought about how geeky and uptight those present at the second interview were, that it may not have been a good long-term fit.

It may take a little bit, but things ought to get better.

[Drew Dowdell]

You sure it wasn't that 36 states had more people run out of unemployment benefits but are still unemployed than signed up for new ones?

[Robert Hall]

Was announced that it was down to 8.9% for AZ w/ this data. Don't know how accurate that is, though. I've heard from headhunters it's still about 4% in my field.

[CaddyXLR-V]

The BLS releases their state-by-state employment stats today. They release at around this time every month.

The news is that 36 states posted unemployment drops and 8 states posted increases. It's going in the right direction. California is STILL over 12%.

Here's the link:

BLS Labor U.E. by state

I interviewed for a different job on Dec. 3, was interviewed again on Dec. 8 and then found out on Dec. 14 that I didn't get it. It took me about 1 hour to get over it. I thought about how geeky and uptight those present at the second interview were, that it may not have been a good long-term fit.

It may take a little bit, but things ought to get better.

I think I remember saying things would start to get better, and not continue to get worse, about a month or so ago. No one believed me though. We are not out of the woods yet, but it is a start.

[Drew Dowdell]

I still think the data needs to be hashed out a bit more. Employment data is notoriously.... fudged.

[CaddyXLR-V]

I still think the data needs to be hashed out a bit more. Employment data is notoriously.... fudged.

That's true. A lot of people may have given up looking for jobs, so they are technically not unemployed since they are not looking. But being over a year into the recession, a lot of those people probably gave up looking a long time ago. And since some of our economy is based on consumer confidence, any good news could provide a spark.

Edited December 18, 2009 by CaddyXLR-V

[Drew Dowdell]

That's true. A lot of people may have given up looking for jobs, so they are technically not unemployed since they are not looking. But being over a year into the recession, a lot of those people probably gave up looking a long time ago. And since some of our economy is based on consumer confidence, any good news could provide a spark.

Could, but most likely won't. All the consumer confidence in the world can't help if there isn't the cash to support it. A great many people are shying away from using credit cards or even mortgages or financing cars. The ones who aren't afraid of credit can't seem to get it either. These are the biggest reasons why "this time" is a lot different from the times before. Add to this that people are actually being frugal. Personal savings is up for the first time since the Ford Administration.

We're still in a major deflationary spiral which would be exponentially worse if the government weren't running the printing presses at 150% capacity.

[CSpec]

Could, but most likely won't. All the consumer confidence in the world can't help if there isn't the cash to support it. A great many people are shying away from using credit cards or even mortgages or financing cars. The ones who aren't afraid of credit can't seem to get it either. These are the biggest reasons why "this time" is a lot different from the times before. Add to this that people are actually being frugal. Personal savings is up for the first time since the Ford Administration.

We're still in a major deflationary spiral which would be exponentially worse if the government weren't running the printing presses at 150% capacity.

What? Have you not read any of the press excoriating Bernanke for being obsessed with the current low inflation rate, rather than accepting higher inflation for lower unemployment?

[loki]

We're still in a major deflationary spiral which would be exponentially worse if the governmentFederal reserve weren't running the printing presses at 150% capacity.

i know it's knit picking... but it's "mission" is to maintain "full employment" and a strong dollar. fail on both of those, and a high chance it will only get worse.

peter schiff on russia today. is kinda old though. 4 months

does cover the "unemployment fudging"...

[regfootball]

Could, but most likely won't. All the consumer confidence in the world can't help if there isn't the cash to support it. A great many people are shying away from using credit cards or even mortgages or financing cars. The ones who aren't afraid of credit can't seem to get it either. These are the biggest reasons why "this time" is a lot different from the times before. Add to this that people are actually being frugal. Personal savings is up for the first time since the Ford Administration.

We're still in a major deflationary spiral which would be exponentially worse if the government weren't running the printing presses at 150% capacity.

deflation, surely you jest.

if you are talking widgets at walmart, maybe. as in a couple percent.

if you are talking commercial real estate rent, then yes, we are down 25, 33%.

but that statement all goes to hell when you bring health care thievery into the discussion.

i lost work in Jan. we declined my COBRA as to pick it up would have cost 1200 a month fam coverage.

instead we jumped on my wife's who was still employed. that was 650/mo at the time and I $h! my pants when they raised it to 950/mo back in July.

so all along I have been thinking it might be good to just find an emergency only policy (not the best with a newborn) to trim the healthcare expense. If it were just me I'd go uncovered. Anyways, I do have the option of getting back on COBRA from my last employer. I just got the rates today......

THEY RAISED IT FROM 1200 TO 1800 A MONTH FAMILY COVERAGE.

I was speaking with my dad who said the 65+ set is starting to see rate increases in a similar fashion.

The health care industry is setting you up for the big kill. First it was mortgage bankers, then Wall street, now the Health Care bunch is going in for the kill.

Ultimate point......you can say there is deflation if you are only talking about widgets but you need to add the other expenses of daily life, and who cares if you are saving 20 bucks a month at Walmart if your health care is costing you 7 grand a year more each year. Not only that, even if your employer is footing a lot of it, all that's doing is bringing your wage down.

You know used car and car values in general are up at least 5 grand across the board since the crash in 2008. The cost of buying a new car has to have gone up at least 10-20% in the last year. When the market gets hot again, cars will simply be unattainable new or used for many folks.

The energy kill group is just laying back in the weeds again waiting for the clear to go sky high with those taxes and costs again too.

bob-got a call out of the blue today from a firm, wanted my res. Makes me think some firms may MAY be thinking about some hiring activity after the new year.

[loki]

reg. think of all the baby boomers that might be going to medicare only insurance.... that'd put a big dent in their profits.

[regfootball]

your point regarding demogaphics is true. the aging populace will KILL us from taxes to health care etc. no ones 'fault' we just need more worker bees to replace the ones retiring....

personally, i think income taxes will double when all is said and done with this.

[2005 EquinoxLS]

We just hired a few people where I work. I make circuit boards at a manufacuting facility. Though this is our busy time anyway. The real test will be what happens after the 1st of the year.

[ocnblu]

Owner at our dealership says we sell twice as many new cars a month as Ford allocates to us, which means we rely on dealer trades to get enough cars to service our customers. An encouraging sign, maybe. He says we are on Ford's "good" list as far as stand-alone L-M dealerships.

Edited December 19, 2009 by ocnblu

[Drew Dowdell]

deflation, surely you jest.

if you are talking widgets at walmart, maybe. as in a couple percent.

if you are talking commercial real estate rent, then yes, we are down 25, 33%.

but that statement all goes to hell when you bring health care thievery into the discussion.

i lost work in Jan. we declined my COBRA as to pick it up would have cost 1200 a month fam coverage.

instead we jumped on my wife's who was still employed. that was 650/mo at the time and I $h! my pants when they raised it to 950/mo back in July.

so all along I have been thinking it might be good to just find an emergency only policy (not the best with a newborn) to trim the healthcare expense. If it were just me I'd go uncovered. Anyways, I do have the option of getting back on COBRA from my last employer. I just got the rates today......

THEY RAISED IT FROM 1200 TO 1800 A MONTH FAMILY COVERAGE.

I was speaking with my dad who said the 65+ set is starting to see rate increases in a similar fashion.

The health care industry is setting you up for the big kill. First it was mortgage bankers, then Wall street, now the Health Care bunch is going in for the kill.

Ultimate point......you can say there is deflation if you are only talking about widgets but you need to add the other expenses of daily life, and who cares if you are saving 20 bucks a month at Walmart if your health care is costing you 7 grand a year more each year. Not only that, even if your employer is footing a lot of it, all that's doing is bringing your wage down.

You know used car and car values in general are up at least 5 grand across the board since the crash in 2008. The cost of buying a new car has to have gone up at least 10-20% in the last year. When the market gets hot again, cars will simply be unattainable new or used for many folks.

The energy kill group is just laying back in the weeds again waiting for the clear to go sky high with those taxes and costs again too.

bob-got a call out of the blue today from a firm, wanted my res. Makes me think some firms may MAY be thinking about some hiring activity after the new year.

You're talking about consumer prices and not the same thing as inflation/deflation.

The money supply in this country is falling even though the fed is throwing so much cash around.

[loki]

You're talking about consumer prices and not the same thing as inflation/deflation.

The money supply in this country is falling even though the fed is throwing so much cash around.

nice chart. might be a little behind (or not enough resolution?), but it just showing that the increase of money has drastically slowed, not actually decreasing, yet.

[caddycruiser]

Owner at our dealership says we sell twice as many new cars a month as Ford allocates to us, which means we rely on dealer trades to get enough cars to service our customers. An encouraging sign, maybe. He says we are on Ford's "good" list as far as stand-alone L-M dealerships.

Good sign. I have a fellow G8'er & good friend who's retired in Bethlehem that works for his local Ford dealer as a "runner" doing nothing but taking dealer trades away & back and for part time, he's ALWAYS busy with it

My "search & figure it out" continues and I hope as the year turns, early 2010 brings me the chance to move up & on far, finally. Time to finally put some of the, uh, $$ engineering degree to work; "beach" life only has its perks for so long...believe it or not.

Edited December 19, 2009 by caddycruiser

[Drew Dowdell]

nice chart. might be a little behind (or not enough resolution?), but it just showing that the increase of money has drastically slowed, not actually decreasing, yet.

You are correct in that sir. However, look at that chart while keeping these three things in mind:

1. M3 has increased around an average of about 4% for 2009.... how many trillions did the fed print this year? If they hadn't we'd be well in the negative. As it is we're barely above water.

2. Personal savings has increased for the first time since before I was born. The amount of money in circulation right now is smaller over all because people are saving more. This can be good for the economy long term, but it'll hurt right now.

3. The reason we're just barely at 4% increase in M3 despite the Fed presses running on 11 is the massive contraction in credit. Businesses operate on credit. That credit is gone.

Eventually, the fed will have to turn off the taps. That will have to be made up by the banks in terms of credit or else we fall into depression.

Follow why Obama was beating on the banks this week?

[loki]

yes. but could also be seen as the, you took tarp funds, comply with our rules.... you've repayed tarp... please comply with my "rules" you have no obligation to follow, yet.

a correction will have to come at sometime, either it can be done slowly and rough on the whole country through intervention, or try to let it go as is and get it over with with very mixed results, i'd think.

don't know who -1 'd my first post, just like to know why.

Edited December 19, 2009 by loki

[Drew Dowdell]

yes. but could also be seen as the, you took tarp funds, comply with our rules.... you've repayed tarp... please comply with my "rules" you have no obligation to follow, yet.

a correction will have to come at sometime, either it can be done slowly and rough on the whole country through intervention, or try to let it go as is and get it over with with very mixed results, i'd think.

don't know who -1 'd my first post, just like to know why.

You're right that the U.S. government would have less of a say in the operation of the banks once TARP is repayed. That's one of the reasons why the banks are rushing to do it. Some of the banks are repaying the TARP funds even though they aren't really healthy enough to do it.

That's why Obama is coming out swinging. In the past 2 weeks banks have been rushing to pay back a large amount of TARP before the year's end. The banks are also trying to fight his financial reforms.

[trinacriabob]

so all along I have been thinking it might be good to just find an emergency only policy (not the best with a newborn) to trim the healthcare expense. If it were just me I'd go uncovered. Anyways, I do have the option of getting back on COBRA from my last employer. I just got the rates today......

The health care industry is setting you up for the big kill.

bob-got a call out of the blue today from a firm, wanted my res. Makes me think some firms may MAY be thinking about some hiring activity after the new year.

I won't go down the political path with this, so I'll keep it "statistical" and then come back to the topic. Typically, 60% of Americans get their health insurance from working for large enough employers, 27% get health insurance because they are either older (Medicare) and/or because of their inability to pay (state Medicaid programs). That leaves 13% "high and dry" because their employers don't offer it, they are self-employed or are in a transitional situation. (Gee, could America, or any country, for that matter, do without its small companies and small entities?). I don't have the time or energy to pencil it out, but I have some empathy for the 13%. I have had to take the COBRA option before, and it's not fun to write the check, but I'm fairly averse to risk, so that's how I dealt with the transitional period.

Reg, I hope things go well for you in 2010...it's only 12 days away and I really believe things will get better.

[mustang84]

Iowa's unemployment edged up slightly from 6.6% in October to 6.7% in November, although it's still considerably lower than other areas. Both the Cedar Rapids and Des Moines metros have dropped back down into the 5% range, but the Quad Cities (which 1/2 of them are in Illinois) bumped up from 8.4% to 9.1%. Waterloo also jumped from 5.6% to 8% after John Deere laid off a significant number of employees.