Where is my peak oil crew?

[Chevy Nick]

Obviously this is still in the early phases of discovery, maybe the elephant fields don't pan out:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=120966523&ft=1&f=1001

Every few years, the global search for oil yields what's called an "elephant field" — a pool of oil believed to hold a billion barrels or more. Brazil says it's found several such fields that, once in full production, will make the South American country a major oil player.

Those discoveries have shined a spotlight on a company little known outside petroleum circles: Brazil's state-owned Petrobras, which is now gearing up to pump as much oil as it can.

To drill for its version of El Dorado, Brazil is going to have to go far and deep — 200 miles out into the Atlantic, more than 4 miles down, through swirling seas, rock and a thick cap of salt.

The only way to go after the oil is to build a fleet of floating production platforms and drilling rigs. The construction is taking place in a half-dozen Brazilian shipyards.

We'll see what happens.

[FAPTurbo]

That'll be one hell of an expensive venture to develop before even the first barrel is filled.

[Drew Dowdell]

They're hoping to randomly stumble on an oil field over 1 billion barrels? A 1 billion barrel oil field doesn't even join the list of the top 30 active oil fields in the world today...... and you're trying to use this "hope of a discovery" as evidence against peak oil?

It's a shame we can't power our cars on FAIL, because this story, and Brazil's hopes, would power us into the next century.

[Robert Hall]

Interestingly, doesn't Brazil have the largest ethanol (sugar cane based, IIRC) usage in the world?

[Camino LS6]

Interestingly, doesn't Brazil have the largest ethanol (sugar cane based, IIRC) usage in the world?

Yes they do, so this would be an export boom for them.

[ShadowDog]

...and fuel prices will still continue to rise. This changes nothing.

[FAPTurbo]

It's a shame we can't power our cars on FAIL, because this story, and Brazil's hopes, would power us into the next century.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Captainbooyah

[Northstar]

They're hoping to randomly stumble on an oil field over 1 billion barrels? A 1 billion barrel oil field doesn't even join the list of the top 30 active oil fields in the world today...... and you're trying to use this "hope of a discovery" as evidence against peak oil?

It's a shame we can't power our cars on FAIL, because this story, and Brazil's hopes, would power us into the next century.

I think you mis-read the article. It says that an "elephant field" has a billion+ barrels and that Brazil has found several elephant fields, meaning several billion barrels.

[FAPTurbo]

That's still not a lot in the scheme of things. The world consumes about 85 1/2 million barrels of oil a day, which is actually slightly higher than production. Forecasts for late next decade suggest 120 million barrels per day could be the norm. So even a few billion barrels is nothing to big to cheer about.

Plus, the costs will be huge, so they'll require very high oil prices in order for the extraction to be financially feasible.

[Drew Dowdell]

I think you mis-read the article. It says that an "elephant field" has a billion+ barrels and that Brazil has found several elephant fields, meaning several billion barrels.

I didn't mis-read the article. Since "several" generally means between 2 and 10. We'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say that each oil field has around 2 billion recoverable. Best case scenario, Brazil has 20 billion barrels of oil spread over 10 oil fields. The world's largest oil fields range from 20b to 75b barrels each.

Overall Brazilian production may be on the rise, but it's a lot more expensive to run 10 2b barrel oil fields than it is to run 1 20b barrel oil field.

Wake me when you find an oil field over 20b that's easy to extract and then we can revisit peak oil.

[A Horse With No Name]

Like I said, in 5 years cars like the Camaro and CTS-V may well be out of production.

I would bet that Arizona will be really interesting in about seven to ten years. LOTS of nearly new or late model airplaines parked out in the desert, never to fly again. I remember Trains magazine from back in the mid 1950's, from when railroads went from steam locomotives to diesel. LOTS of nearly new steam locomotives sitting lined up on rail spurs, waiting for the scrap man.

The same thing happened at the end of the Ocean Liner age...sister ship of the Titanic, the Olympic, tied up in a scrapyard alongside the Mauritainia, the sister ship of the Lusitania.

Same thing will happen to our air fleets. The 787 really will be the dream liner, because most of the fleet of them will be put to sleep soon after they are flying.

Kind of sad, really when you think about it. Trinacriabob was talking about how beautiful the 747 is. Bringing my daughter home from high school past Rickenbacker air field...747 Cargo plane is sitting there and she is like "wow...that is one huge plane. And it's beautiful!"

If we don't do something soon, regfootball is going to be road testing rickshaws before his kid is out of high school.

My two cents,

Chris

[Camino LS6]

Any find of this nature is good news when it is in the territory of a friendly nation.

We need all of the good news on this front that we can get.

Peak oil or not.

[A Horse With No Name]

Yes it is good news.

But we need to not put off other sources of energy.

The denial people have been in denial since the early 1970's, it's time to do something.

Chris

[Camino LS6]

I have argument with that.

Should have been a priority 30 years ago.

[A Horse With No Name]

Amen brother.

Think of how sweet an LS1 TA would be, tuned to run on ethanol...with a turbo on that nice high octane ethanol.

Or how nice it would be not to have the Saudi's own ten percent of our nation.

OR how nice it would be to drive a one ton crew cab dually truck with no guilt about future generations, money going overseas, or blood for oil.

Chris

[Camino LS6]

Amen brother.

Think of how sweet an LS1 TA would be, tuned to run on ethanol...with a turbo on that nice high octane ethanol.

Or how nice it would be not to have the Saudi's own ten percent of our nation.

OR how nice it would be to drive a one ton crew cab dually truck with no guilt about future generations, money going overseas, or blood for oil.

Chris

Sounds like freedom and happiness to me.

[A Horse With No Name]

....one last post...and then I'll shut up. Why should we trail the Brazilians of all people in biofuels and alternative energy? Nothing against Brazillians, they are great people...but aren't Americans supposed to be leaders in this world?

Never thought we'd given up our need/seeming natural calling to be leaders.

Chris

[Camino LS6]

....one last post...and then I'll shut up. Why should we trail the Brazilians of all people in biofuels and alternative energy? Nothing against Brazillians, they are great people...but aren't Americans supposed to be leaders in this world?

Never thought we'd given up our need/seeming natural calling to be leaders.

Chris

I'm with you on that as well.

But the Brazillians have an advantage on the biofuel front, they can grow all the sugarcane they need for ethanol.

We can't.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Camino LS6

[loki]

people that think peak oil is real....

do you know something the "skeptics" don't? like the composition of the earth... way more than one person could ever know.

i've only heard peak oil as "we've hit a ceiling of production world wide, it could only fall from that"... are you not ruling out new fields discovered, new technology, and just general efficiency increases to have a surplus of supply?

claiming peak oil is real is claiming limited human innovation and a resource we have all access too right now, everywhere, and some insight that makes oil a non replenishing resource. i defy you to knowing any of these are not true, show me certain proof that these are all true, otherwise peak oil is still pure propaganda.

not that lowering our oil use would be a bad thing, if a person thinks that oil use doesn't have certain verifiable downsides is blind. i'm talking of inevitable oil spills and other such things.

[loki]

I'm with you on that as well.

But the Brazillians have an advantage on the biofuel front, they can grow all the sugarcane they need for ethanol.

We can't.

we sure can subsidize production of...all "fuels" ugh.

[Robert Hall]

....one last post...and then I'll shut up. Why should we trail the Brazilians of all people in biofuels and alternative energy? Nothing against Brazillians, they are great people...but aren't Americans supposed to be leaders in this world?

Never thought we'd given up our need/seeming natural calling to be leaders.

Chris

<cynical>

Because big US oil companies (and the politicos they own) have no economic interest (yet) in leading in biofuels or alternative energy? (No matter how 'green' their adverts make them sound)...

</cynical>

[Camino LS6]

I tend to take a pragmatic view of this issue:

- I think eliminating foreign oil imports are the first priority.

- I think reliance on any single fuel is idiocy.

- I am more immediately concerned with economic and national security concerns that imported oil creates than the environmental side of things. At least initially.

- I see any new oil finds in friendly nations as a good (if short-term) bit of news.

- "Peak Oil", real or imagined, seems like a good incentive to develop our options.

[Robert Hall]

I tend to take a pragmatic view of this issue:

- I think eliminating foreign oil imports are the first priority.

Of course, the largest sources for foreign in the US? Local-- Canada, Mexico. No one ever mentions that.

[Camino LS6]

Of course, the largest sources for foreign in the US? Local-- Canada, Mexico. No one ever mentions that.

The fact that they are both stable neighbors and allies makes me wish that they could provide all of the oil we need. They'd be the last two I'd want to eliminate, but I would still be happier if our energy supplies were entirely domestic.

[Robert Hall]

The fact that they are both stable neighbors and allies makes me wish that they could provide all of the oil we need. They'd be the last two I'd want to eliminate, but I would still be happier if our energy supplies were entirely domestic.

I'm not so sure Mexico is all that stable, what with their drug wars and government corruption. But they do provide oil and cheap labor for the US.

[Camino LS6]

Relative the the rest of the world, Mexico is pretty stable. Might not be paradise, but it isn't the Middle-East.

[Drew Dowdell]

I'm with you on that as well.

But the Brazillians have an advantage on the biofuel front, they can grow all the sugarcane they need for ethanol.

We can't.

Ethanol can be made from many sources, not just sugarcane. We have a LOT of coast line. We can make ethanol from kelp and algae

[Drew Dowdell]

we sure can subsidize production of...all "fuels" ugh.

How much was that Iraq war oil subsidy?

[Camino LS6]

Ethanol can be made from many sources, not just sugarcane. We have a LOT of coast line. We can make ethanol from kelp and algae

And old tires someday. I hope that project survived the GM storm.

I'm all about changing our fuels, I get testy when there is pressure to change the cars.

[Drew Dowdell]

Of course, the largest sources for foreign in the US? Local-- Canada, Mexico. No one ever mentions that.

No one also mentions that at the rate of decline in production at Mexico's oil wells, and the rate of increase of Mexico's oil use, Mexico will be forced to stop exporting oil within 10 years.

[Camino LS6]

No one also mentions that at the rate of decline in production at Mexico's oil wells, and the rate of increase of Mexico's oil use, Mexico will be forced to stop exporting oil within 10 years.

I have read that.

In the short-term, it is still critical to secure more oil from all friendly sources. Long-term we need multiple substitutes, and we are woefully behind in making that happen.

Clean, renewable, and domestic sources of energy are possibly the most critical asset in any attempt to renew our standing in the world. We stand little chance of maintaining our standard of living if we fail to get that done.

[Drew Dowdell]

people that think peak oil is real....

do you know something the "skeptics" don't? like the composition of the earth... way more than one person could ever know.

i've only heard peak oil as "we've hit a ceiling of production world wide, it could only fall from that"... are you not ruling out new fields discovered, new technology, and just general efficiency increases to have a surplus of supply?

claiming peak oil is real is claiming limited human innovation and a resource we have all access too right now, everywhere, and some insight that makes oil a non replenishing resource. i defy you to knowing any of these are not true, show me certain proof that these are all true, otherwise peak oil is still pure propaganda.

not that lowering our oil use would be a bad thing, if a person thinks that oil use doesn't have certain verifiable downsides is blind. i'm talking of inevitable oil spills and other such things.

Oil production is declining in most major oil producing countries. The Sauds routinely inflate their "reserves" numbers.

In 2002 oil was priced at $26 a barrel and Saudi Arabia produced just over 7 million barrels a day. As the price rose to about $57 a bbl in 2005, production rose to just shy of 9.5 mbd. Since then oil climbed to $100 and then to $150 a bbl by August 2008 – and the Saudi's kept producing less than 9.5 mbd. It looks as though in only one of the last 5 years have they pumped more than they did in 2005. Interesting, no?

The SEC has decided that “Proved Oil Reserves” don't have to be proven at all, merely assumed to be recoverable by “reliable technology” and undisclosed “trade secrets”. Makes wishful thinking respectable.

The media is in full cry once again, baying at Peak Oil as though it were well treed and no longer a threat. The uproar started with the IEA's 2009 report and the claim that the report was fictionalized to keep the US and Big Oil (but I repeat myself) happy. Daniel Yergin, a consultant to big oil famous for his errant predictions, assures us there will be no peak before 2030 and no decline even after that. He then makes fun of Ken Deffeye , who correctly predicted production of crude oil would peak in 2005. (He joked it would happen on Thanksgiving.... ). Crude oil production (just crude oil, not stuff made out of corn, condensed out of natural gas or squeezed out of sand) peaked in 2005. In 2006, 7, and 8 crude output was below that rate. Some say all we have to do is throw more money at the problem and more oil will be found and/or retrieved. These same people say there is no hunger in the world, the food's in the wrong place and the folks that need it can't afford it. Same with oil. We've already seen what $147 a barrel does to the economy. Twenty-five percent of the world's oil comes from about 20 big fields, most of which are in serious decline. Just today Kuwait said OPEC will keep production steady. Either they do not want more money or they cannot pump more oil. Your choice. Remember, “the one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it.”

[Camino LS6]

As I said, a great incentive to get the alternatives going.

But the mere fact of our need to import the stuff should have been enough incentive on its own. Any non-domestic fuel is a risk to our survival in an energy-hungry age.

Just imagine the boost to our economy a fully domestic energy supply would be.

It's staggering.

[Chevy Nick]

Relative the the rest of the world, Mexico is pretty stable. Might not be paradise, but it isn't the Middle-East.

I believe that Ciudad Juarez is more dangerous than Baghdad, but they're not muslim, which is a plus.

[Camino LS6]

Last time I checked, they weren't flying planes into buildings or invading their neighbors.

In this world, that's pretty stable.

[loki]

Your choice. Remember, “the one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it.”

"those measuring it" .... as in the state owned producers of the middle east and others that owe their nations wealth to it, or anyone "measuring it"?

but i find it funny of those predictions...predicting a general trend is easy for 1 - 2 years, but obviously predicting things has a logarithmic equation in error of the predictions, just like weather forecasts.

"How much was that Iraq war oil subsidy?"

100% too much.

if you want "alt fuels" to be the smart choice, the gov. has to get out of the business regulating where and when it's drilled for or where it comes from, along with subsidizing the ethanol businesses and others. when the public pays the real full cost of oil at the pumps and can go to another "pump" for a more economical choice will be the start of the end for oil for "mass" transit.

[Camino LS6]

It's only my opinion Loki, but I think this is one instance where pragmatism outweighs idealism.

[Chevy Nick]

Last time I checked, they weren't flying planes into buildings or invading their neighbors.

In this world, that's pretty stable.

So you think Saudi Arabia is unstable?

[Camino LS6]

To put it another way, I think our national energy insecurity constitutes a "clear and present danger".

[Camino LS6]

So you think Saudi Arabia is unstable?

I think Saudi Arabia is a house of cards.

As are all monarchist/authoritarian states in that region.

[loki]

It's only my opinion Loki, but I think this is one instance where pragmatism outweighs idealism.

pertaining to?

To put it another way, I think our national energy insecurity constitutes a "clear and present danger".

more so since we have a large % of our military not defending our boarders and if we can't get our men and women home we are more insecure. the military is the largest user of fuel, prolly in the world.

[Camino LS6]

pertaining to?

Pertaining to subsidies for alt fuels.

more so since we have a large % of our military not defending our boarders and if we can't get our men and women home we are more insecure. the military is the largest user of fuel, prolly in the world.

Where are troops are, and how much fuel they use is a mere side story as long as we continue to rely on oil imports from hostile regions.