Toyota's Onslaught

[Guest gmrebirth]

post deleted Edited December 13, 2005 by gmrebirth

[Guest gmrebirth]

Generally, I tend to believe Toyota doesn't usually set the sales chart on fire with their new entrants, even though they are highly competitive. Aside from the Corolla and Camry, they have a history of having many models that do well enough, but usually are overshadowed by the domestics. In the last year Toyota has had successes that have gone against that trend. Avalon, Scion TC, and Tacoma are all experiencing great sales in thier first years on the market. This is troubling and foreboding of their upcoming sales successes.

That said, I hope the Yaris isn't a success, and could prove to not be one for the very reasons Petra posted. The Yaris may prove to be a very good car, which would end up making it worthy, but Toyota fans don't seem to be too interested in a very small car. Chevy fans like cheap cars, and so the Aveo does well. I don't see it doing much better than Aveo. Rav4 is currently selling 65k units. If the price is right around the Equinox I could see it doing real damage. The great thing is the exterior still prevents me from ever wanting to be seen driving one, which I think many agree with. The bad thing is they're damn good cars, which will convince many to overlook that glaring fact. The good thing is usually Toyota's are priced higher than the competition. Rav4 could easily sell 150k units, but at the cost of Highlander sales obviously.

Camry is only ahead of last year's sales by 7k units; it's a solidly engineered car and will always have positive sales. I don't see it increasing to 500k units easily, especially with all the competition from the Fusions, Aura, redesined Accord, etc. As Petra mentioned, the accord hybrid is only adding around 1-2k units per month, and Honda actually recently put some incentive on it, yes it's minimal. I see people who normally would have opted for the V6 getting the hybrid instead. Given the campaign against hybrids in the media these days, I don't see a tremendous effect, like adding 70k sales. Yes I said against, note the increasing reports about hybrids not being worth the money, customers have become savvy about this, and hybrid consumers would be pretty savvy people to begin with.

As much as the Tundra will assuredly be dominant, advertising will be everywhere and creative, and the proliferation of available configurations; I don't forsee it gaining 200k sales at the cost of the domestics. GM will have new trucks next year, and if they are styled right, they will be massive successes. GM's new interiors are finally worthy, the engines are better than anyone, with better fuel economy, and GM will have the numbers against Toyota, so hopefully they will be willing to flout that in head to head comparisons against Tundra. Silverado is GM's most important vehicle, I am confident they are readying heavy marketing for it. The style of it, will to me, be its most important factor for success. The current Chevy trucks still have attractive presences, but the bodies look straight out of the '90's. GM hopefully has made somehting with a little bit of flair, even the Tacoma's body has some lines to it, and is overall very modern looking.

FJ might add 50k sales. It's a 4runner 5-seater right? It's meant for even more serious off-roading [like the 4-runner wasn't already well-known for this] with a very cool body. I can't see too many young guys going for it. This market is already stretched too thin, and Hummer's got it cornered. That is who they're going after in price? Hummer's exclusivity and image will have it over Toyota, and their design is better, imo. The Toyota is cool, but has a tinny feel to it completely absent in the Hummer.

[post="57824"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Based on your logic, the domestics should not be losing marketshare, and Toyota shouldn't be gaining any marketshare if their models get overshadowed by the domestics.

You have too much wishful thinking going on.

The current Rav 4 is small, has a cheap interior, and only one engine. The new Rav 4 is much bigger, has two engines offered, a better interior, and a lot more utility and flexibility. Pricing is also very competitive (base Rav 4 V6 about same price as base Equinox). Like I said, if the plain and boring Ford Escape can sell close to 150K units annually, I don't see why the Rav 4 can't.

You should re-check the Camry sales figures. Camry is 7K units ahead, but that doesn't factor in December 2005 sales. It's 7k ahead of total 2004 sales, and December will add at least another 20K units sold to that total. I'd say it's a pretty decent increase for a such a dated car. So again, we go back to about 420K units for 2005 total.

Camry hybrid will differ from the Accord hybrid. First off, it will be cheaper. I expect the pricing to be not that far from the Prius. The Accord hybrid is actually priced quite high. Second, the Camry will be a 4 cyl hybrid, focused on fuel economy like the Prius, not a V6 hybrid like the Accord, which is more performance oriented.

Like I said, even the more expensive (compared to Accord hybrid) Highlander hybrid sells close to 3K units monthly. It's not hard at all to imagine the Camry hybrid with 50K annual units.

That would bring annual Camry sales to 470K. And I attribute a 20 - 30K increase due to the car being a new generation, with new improvements and such.

People said the Altima would take out Camry sales, but it didn't happen. People said Impala and Malibu would knock down the Camry's sales, but that didn't happen either. Fusion still sells at low volumes due to limited supply, and Sonata is really picking up the sales pace.

Toyota purposely moved ahead the Camry launch by 6 months just to keep it's hold on the midsize market.

[turbo200]

Wishful thinking? I admit it may have sounded like a puff piece from the first line, but I think you are emphasizing the wrong points. When I was talking about Toyota's launches, I really was thinking of cars like the Highlander and 4Runner, both more competitive than the Trailblazer or Explorer, and yet they can't topple those. Or the Sienna, superior to the DCX twins, and while it's making sales records on its own, doesn't manage to catch those cars either. I pointed to more recent Toyota launches that prove this trend wrong. I said Rav4 could easily get 150k. Check the Camry sales. As of November 2005, they were 7k ahead of November 2004 in total sales for the year. So the difference this year will be somewhere around 10k units, unless Camry dips for December. That's not unimpressive, but again, I said it's a solidly engineered car and there will always be buyers for it. I don't think it can reach 500k, not even 470k. Highlander Hybrid is adding 3k per month, but TOTAL Highlander sales are still running at the same clip this year. Goes to prove Petra's theory that most people that bought the Hybrid were already looking at the regular version of this car. I don't know if or what the Hybrid will add to sales, I do know chances look good for Toyota.

[balthazar]

... the Tundra is the FIRST real effort at trying to penetrate the fullsize market. I don't count any of the previous trucks as real efforts into the fullsize market.

Oh goodie; a precedent!!
I can't wait to trot this ridiculous excuse out everytime someone bashes a GM product: 'Oh, it wasn't a real effort, it doesn't count! Wait until the 3rd generation, you'll see!' Sure: it's fine when toyota releases uncompetitive product, roll out the barrel of excuses, 'it's a dud because they wanted it to be a dud'. F'ing ponderous.

[haypops]

I know it is not appreciated, but I have found the T100 to be a much nicer product than the tundra.

[Guest gmrebirth]

Wishful thinking? I admit it may have sounded like a puff piece from the first line, but I think you are emphasizing the wrong points.

When I was talking about Toyota's launches, I really was thinking of cars like the Highlander and 4Runner, both more competitive than the Trailblazer or Explorer, and yet they can't topple those. Or the Sienna, superior to the DCX twins, and while it's making sales records on its own, doesn't manage to catch those cars either.

I pointed to more recent Toyota launches that prove this trend wrong.

I said Rav4 could easily get 150k.

Check the Camry sales. As of November 2005, they were 7k ahead of November 2004 in total sales for the year. So the difference this year will be somewhere around 10k units, unless Camry dips for December. That's not unimpressive, but again, I said it's a solidly engineered car and there will always be buyers for it. I don't think it can reach 500k, not even 470k.

Highlander Hybrid is adding 3k per month, but TOTAL Highlander sales are still running at the same clip this year. Goes to prove Petra's theory that most people that bought the Hybrid were already looking at the regular version of this car. I don't know if or what the Hybrid will add to sales, I do know chances look good for Toyota.

[post="57888"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

I guess we can just agree to disagree with the new Camry sales. I double checked, and you're right, about an 8k lead over last year for the current Camry. Hybrid won't be out till end of 06 anyways, so in 2006 it probably won't reach 470K or 500K. But in 2007 it has a good chance with the hybrid model.

You're right about Highlander sales. The new Rav 4 won't help 'Lander sales much either. The Highlander is a pretty bland and dated crossover. Hopefully it's replacement will be a definitive improvment.

[Guest gmrebirth]

... the Tundra is the FIRST real effort at trying to penetrate the fullsize market. I don't count any of the previous trucks as real efforts into the fullsize market.

Oh goodie; a precedent!!
I can't wait to trot this ridiculous excuse out everytime someone bashes a GM product: 'Oh, it wasn't a real effort, it doesn't count! Wait until the 3rd generation, you'll see!' Sure: it's fine when toyota releases uncompetitive product, roll out the barrel of excuses, 'it's a dud because they wanted it to be a dud'. F'ing ponderous.

[post="58048"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Uhhh, before the Tundra, NONE of Toyota's trucks were even considered full size, irregardless of how Toyota marketed them. And although many of you don't consider the Tundra as "full size", it is.

When was the last time in the past few years that a first generation domestic vehicle made significant in-roads against an established import model? For example, is there any first generation domestic sedan that has seriously challenged the Camry's sales?

The only car that comes to mind for me is the Fusion, but it's still too early to tell what it's sales will be like. There's also the Cobalt, but it's sales are already dropping, and it's only been out for about a year. The only other vehicle I can think of is the Chrysler 300, that's doing relatively well. But then again, the 300 is not a first generation vehicle. The Ford Focus is on what generation now? It still has not made any inroads in challenging Corolla or Civic sales. The Impala and Malibu are on what generation now? They too have not been able to affect Camry or Accord sales.

The current 1st gen Tundra isn't a dud. Considering Toyota was the FIRST import maker to make a fullsize truck (before Nissan did), Toyota got it's foot in the door in this market.

And full size truck buyers are VERY loyal, so the Tundra, being Toyota's first try in this market, and getting 100K annual sales isn't bad.

And rolling out excuses, and making promises is a GM trademark, not Toyota. GM for years has always said "wait till our new products arrive, they will be very competitive". Time and time again GM's promises prove to be wrong, or these new products end up being delayed to the point of being uncompetitive. Edited December 13, 2005 by gmrebirth

[El Scorcho]

Let's consider that the T100 and the second Toyota pickup (can't recall the name at the moment) were not full size. Even then, they were not able to make inroads in the midsize market. Whatever market they were targeted after, they didn't compete well enough in.