Sales Charts through November 2005

[CaMIRO]

from http://www.automobear.com:

For November 2005, 1.6 million vehicles were sold in the U.S. market, falling 2.8% over November 2004. The industry as a whole is now projected to figure at between 15.8 million and 16 million units for the year.

This is improved over the 15.4 million total units that were estimated after the trauma of October 2005, which saw a 14.1% fall over October 2004. It seems positive, too, to note that considerable inventory reductions have - correspondingly - taken place, with Chrysler in Thursday's teleconference noting that its overall inventory is down 20,000 units over this time last year, making for a 92-day supply overall. Ford's corresponding inventories have dropped by 66,000 units.

Chrysler's senior vice-president of sales Gary Dilts also emphasizes that Chrysler has been more focused than its competitors on retail sales, versus fleet. That said, Ford counters that its retail sales were 5% higher in November 2005, over October 2005, with fleet sales 7% down, although admits that retail sales declined 21% over November 2004, with fleet sales up 4% to 31% of its total.

Chrysler shared at its teleconference that it was expecting fuel prices to continue to drop, which bodes well for consumer confidence in December. The nation's best-selling hybrid, Toyota's Prius, dropped more than 20% over October 2005, making November among the lowest of its months on record this year. It is far too early to make much of this, but Ford's manager of sales analysis and reporting, too, expressed that Ford was "feeling a little better about the outlook for the economy than we were a month or two ago."

The optimism, despite the volatility of this year's sales figures, is borne out in a historical analysis of industry trends. Traditionally, December lifts November's retail pace by double digits, and given the terrible times of September and October, the industry's confidence is well founded. December figures will tell the entire story.

A few housekeeping items, then, before we move on to the analysis part of our monthly report.

General Motors, as a whole, is down 7.6% over November 2004, and 3.8% year-to-date. Ford Motor Company, as a whole, is down 14.8% for the month (over November 2004), and 4.5% year-to-date. DaimlerChrysler is down 3% for the month, but up 5% year-to-date. Honda/ Acura climbed 6.4% and 6.2%, respectively; Toyota/ Lexus/ Scion is up 5.6% and 10.3%, and Nissan/ Infiniti was down 3.9% for the month, but up 10.3% for the year.

By individual brands,

- Hummer is up 113.6% over November 2004, and up 90.5% for 2005, year-to-date, the new H3 midsize SUV making it the fastest-growing brand in the U.S. market.

- Scion is up 28.5% over November 2004, and up 62.6% for 2005, year-to-date.

- Land Rover is up 18% and up 30.8%, respectively.

- Suzuki is up 18.2% and 9.8%, respectively;

- Audi, up 15% and 5.6%;

- BMW, up 14.2% and 2.2%;

- Hyundai, up 12.5% and 8%;

- Honda, 10.4% and 6%;

- Porsche, 10% and 1%;

- Lexus, 7.7% and 5.2%;

- Toyota, 5.6% and 10.3%, and

- Subaru, 5% and 4.8%.

Saturn is up 12% for the month, and stable for the year.

- Cadillac is down 24.8% over November 2004, but up 2.5% for 2005, year-to-date.

- Mercury is down 20.8% over November 2004, but up 2.1% for 2005, year-to-date.

- Acura is down 14.2% but up 7.2%, respectively.

- Infiniti is down 14.1%, but up 4.3%, respectively;

- Saab, down 18.1% yet up 2.4% year-to-date;

- Kia, down 13.8%, but up 2.9% year-to-date;

- MINI, down 5.7%, but up 19.1% year-to-date;

- Dodge, down 4%, but up 1% year-to-date;

- Jeep, down 3%, but up 9% year-to-date, and

- Chrysler is down 1% for the month, but up 13% year-to-date.

Mazda; Mitsubishi; Pontiac, and Volkswagen went the opposite way, with Mazda up 1% for the month but down 2% for the year; Mitsubishi up 7.2% for the month yet down 24% for the year; Pontiac up 10.7% for the month but down 8.4% for the year, and Volkswagen up 4.8% for the month if down 15.5% for the year.

- Mercedes-Benz has dropped 3% over November 2004, and is down 1% for 2005, year-to-date.

- Buick is down 5.8% over November 2004, and is down 8.2% for 2005, year-to-date.

- Nissan is down 6.7% and 7.8%, respectively.

- Chevrolet is down 13.4% and 2.5%, respectively;

- the Ford brand dropped 14%, and 4.2% year-to-date;

- Lincoln, down 15.3% and 12.5%;

- GMC, down 27.4% and 4.7%;

- Jaguar, down 40.7% and 34.1%;

- Volvo, down 25.8% and 9.7%, and

- Isuzu (non-commercial) is down 51.3% over November 2004, and is down 55.6% for 2005, year-to-date.


As we noted last month, even though auto sales traditionally drop in the Fall, October 2005 was particularly trying for the industry - indeed, per Autodata Corp, the worst October since 1992. The industry will, on the whole, be relieved by both stabilization and recovery, in some segments, for November. Overall, a small uptick in sales for November 2005, over October 2005, can be noted.

Last month, we wrote that just 82 vehicles increased their sales performances in October, over September 2005. For November, the number climbs to 120 vehicles that improved over October 2005 (please note that patchy Mitsubishi sales reports introduce mild error in both figures; that our Mainstreamer Coupes section is sparse due to several manufacturers not reporting separate sales for such models, and that niche, stratospherically-priced brands - including Bentley; Ferrari; Lamborghini; Maserati; Maybach, and Rolls-Royce - are not incorporated, per our charts).

Compared to October 2005, in segments defined per our ten charts:

- Pickup Truck sales in November were up 12.9%;

- SUVs, up 9.1%;

- Crossovers, up 2.1%;

- Luxury, up 2.5%, and

- Minivans and Sports & GT were stable.


The biggest drop was suffered by:

- Mainstreamer Coupes (down 10.5%), followed by the

- Entry-Level segment (down 9.6%);

- Hybrids (down 4.9%), and

- Midsize-to-Large Mainstreamers (down 2.6%).


Please note that these month-to-month figures cannot quite be used to predict trends - one swallow does not a summer make, if you will - and it is all the more important to note this given the volatile nature of the year's sales performance, with strong and strongly incentivized figures earlier this summer followed by gas price hikes and a fall in consumer confidence producing traumatic September and, particularly, October months.

One must consider that, industry-wide, November 2005's car sales increased 4.5% over November 2004, while sales of pickups and SUVs declined 8.4%. Year-to-date, passenger cars are up 2.8%, while pickups and SUVs are down 0.6%.

We must also note that, despite gains in the SUV and Pickup Truck segments in November over gas-price weary October 2005, Ford manager of sales analysis and reporting George Pipas mused at the manufacturer's teleconference Thursday, "this would appear to be the first time since 1981 that passenger car sales have outperformed sales in the truck/ light truck category, on a year-to-year basis."

In the throes of last month's performance, we identified vehicles which had (literally) weathered the storm. In October, we were particularly impressed with sales performances of the new Chevrolet Monte Carlo; Cadillac DTS; Chevrolet HHR, and Lexus IS, not to mention the ongoing strength of the Mustang, and the excellent early launch of Ford's Fusion/ Milan/ Zephyr midsize trio, which bested Ford's Fusion expectations alone by 50% and led Ford U.S. sales analysis manager George Pipas to suggest, "I believe the Fusion has the potential to take the baton from the Mustang as this year's hottest car in the industry." We have seen commentary to suggest that observers were expecting more than a 34% improvement for Fusion; Milan, and Zephyr in November over October, but there are two important factors to consider here. First, dealers had 9,000 of these vehicles in inventory at the beginning of November (including 5,800) Fusions, and that is what they sold; Fusion/ Milan/ Zephyr cars are not expected to ramp upward to full production by March. In October 2005, the Power Information Network told the Detroit Free Press that the Fusion sits on showroom floors for an average of 11 days - 3 less than Toyota's Camry - before being sold, and that Fusion buyers have - at an average age of 46 - been five years younger than the average competition buyer.

Moreover, through November, no incentives were placed on Fusion; Milan; Zephyr, or on the Mustang, for that matter.

We also cited Hummer's new H3; Land Rover's new LR3 and Range Rover Sport; Mercury's new Mariner; Mitsubishi's Eclipse; Nissan's new Pathfinder; Saturn's refreshed ION and VUE, and Suzuki's new Grand Vitara as evidence that new products were the answer to weathering even the terrible time that was the October storm. We were also amused that Jeep's new, large 2006 Commander, still filling-in inventories, beat the market, much as GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz had predicted it would at the New York International Auto Show in April, and contrary to the media's Cassandra-like concern over gas price fluctuations.

For November, the 2006 Lexus IS sports sedan, in its first full month on sale, has now managed to surpass the last-generation's performance from January through September, in total! The 2006 Buick Lucerne luxury sedan, still ramping up production at Michigan's Hammtramck plant, put in a strong month, and we expect a new advertising campaign to help considerably in rejuvenating the Buick brand. In monthly numbers, Lucerne has now surpassed the LeSabre it was intended to replace, although between and three- and fourfold jump in production will be necessary to retake LeSabre's former position over Toyota's Avalon, launched as a 2005 model and taking full advantage of Lucerne's late arrival.

It must be noted, however, that every production Buick climbed over October. 30% more buyers discovered the charms of the midsize Buick LaCrosse in November than had in October, and - when it comes to this GM midsize W-Body platform - the performance of the 2006 Chevrolet Impala and Monte Carlo together beat the Honda Accord sedan and coupe by the same amount - 11-12% - that they came within the Toyota Camry/ Solara's monthly performance (please note that Toyota and Honda report Camry sedan and Solara coupe figures, and Accord and Accord coupe figures, together). Slightly smaller, Pontiac's G6 jumped 50% over October 2005, posting its best numbers of the year on the strength of what is now a full range. Those of you familiar with the Business Week and LA Times debate involving this site last April can rest assured that we are gratified to see these numbers take shape!

Meanwhile, Prius aside, other notable shortfalls for November included Ford's Explorer; Jeep's Liberty, and Honda's Civic, the 2006 Explorer and 2006 Civic offering an exception to the rule as far as the success of new products goes. Jeep explains the Liberty in suggesting that the Chrysler Group's heavy '05 model mix may have caused the '05 Grand Cherokee to "bump into it" a little bit, although a now-80% '06 model mix should allay this somewhat in the future.

Incentives will no doubt be a talking point as GM took the initiative to resurrect its Red Tag event for the latter half of November, discounting 2006 Buick; Chevrolet; GMC, and Pontiac models to a fixed sales, and fixed lease, price, both visible on a red tag that hangs from the vehicles' rear view mirrors. Jim Sanfilippo, a Detroit-based analyst with AMCI Marketing, offered that, "in some ways, (Red Tag) dovetails with (GM's) one-price strategy" ('Deja vu: GM sparks price war,' Detroit News, Tuesday, November 15th, 2005).

Industry incentive spending as a whole totaled $3 billion in November, up from $2.3 billion in October, per Edmunds excellent True Cost of Incentives (TCI) report, as published yesterday. The average automotive manufacturer incentive climbed 20% from October 2005, and 1% from November 2004, to $2,413 per vehicle.

In October, Edmunds announced that large SUVs offered the highest average incentives, while sports and compact cars were at the other end of the spectrum. For November, the same extreme between SUVs and sports cars applied, both in averages per vehicle, and as a percentage of MSRP.

Frankly, this (rather than Summer, it must be noted) is the time of year when metal requires incentivizing to move. Cadillac will continue its Season's Best promotion; Hummer will offer free rear-seat DVDs, and Saturn, a $500 gift card at Target. Ford and DaimlerChrysler have launched their own versions and, although the media has not contemplated it much, import manufacturers will be doing the same. December is traditionally higher than November, and you can bet that this industry, as a whole, wants to see a 16 million projected total vehicle sales for 2005 materialize after a difficult Fall.

The domestic manufacturers spent 77% of the total incentives, noted Edmunds, followed by the Japanese (14%); Europeans (6%), and Koreans (3%).

GM had been reducing incentives, in October 2005 at $2,844 per vehicle between Chrysler ($3,206) and Ford ($2,751). New Edmunds figures for November suggest that GM incentives have climbed to $3,225 per vehicle sold, and that Ford's incentive spending is up to $3,137 per vehicle sold. Chrysler still leads, pushing incentives up to $3,398 per vehicle sold in November.

Chrysler, however, took pains at its Thursday teleconference to point out that its 300C/ Magnum/ Charger LX family is operating incentive-free and, moreover, that it has been driving a greater mix of '05 models (approximately one-third) versus competitors' '06s, which puts its average at a higher rate. Chrysler now notes that its inventory of '05 models is now down below 20%, to a more traditional level, so perhaps incentive figures in later months will reflect the company falling in line with Detroit's overall effort, seasonal changes excepted, to reduce incentives. That said, rumor has it that Chrysler may increase rebates by as much as $1,000 on 2005 models, and $500 on some '06s.

Chrysler also notes that, although it will remain competitive on traditional cash-backs and lease offers, it wants to "talk on a different channel." Chrysler's incentives thus feature a Miles of Freedom program to allay buyers' mechanical expenses and - like Mitsubishi - to pay for customers' gasoline for two years. The idea is to provide added value (in this case, security) as an incentive, over hard cash.

On a side note, it seems interesting that Chrysler's entry-level PT Cruiser, per Chrysler's initial estimates, has been impacted particularly strongly by Chrysler's free-gasoline offer. Analyst Gary Lapidus mused at the manufacturer's teleconference that customer acceptance of the gasoline incentive is likely to be counter-intuitive, in that it is unlikely to be taken by pickup truck drivers, who - it can be assumed - will care less for fuel economy.

Meanwhile, the Europeans decreased incentives per vehicle from $1,936 in October 2005 to $1,884 in November; the Koreans were up from $1,562 per vehicle sold to $1,724 per vehicle sold, and the Japanese were up from $966 to $1,030 per vehicle sold.

Jaguar's per-vehicle incentive spending in November was $7,222, remaining the highest of all brands, per Edmunds. Jaguar remains down by a third for the year. Meanwhile, Jaguar's X-Type picked itself by a third from a torrid October, although its numbers will remain well below expectations of a car in its segment, and we remain convinced that it had no place in the stable of a brand which should focus on profitability over volume.

Lincoln in November continued to offer the second-largest incentives, per Edmunds, at $5,171 (although dropping by 12% on the strength of the no-incentives Zephyr) while Buick followed third at $4,133 per vehicle sold. Lincoln's new midsize Zephyr is a bright spot for a brand which is phasing out the thoroughly underrated, lamented (around here, at least), rear-wheel-drive LS. Zephyr climbed an impressive 37% over October's performance, while Town Car was flat, month-to-month.

On a lighter note, cross-town rivalries continue in Detroit as Chevrolet battles to take Ford's title as the best-selling U.S. brand of 2005. Chevrolet holds the measure in cars; Ford, in trucks, and the gap is now narrowed to under 13,000 vehicles.

Edited December 6, 2005 by CaMIRO

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

That's a very nice break down!