Analyst Predicts August SAAR of 16.9 million

[Northstar]

I know this isn't actually sales figures, but it relates to them, so I decided to post this here. From TCC: With the impact of "employee pricing" wearing thin with consumers, Merrill Lynch analyst John Casesa said Tuesday he expected, based on interviews with carmakers and dealers, that August sales would hit a SAAR of 16.9 million. That would still be an increase from the 16.7m SAAR in August 2004, but at a higher cost of marketing. Last month, the industry posted a SAAR of 20.7 million. Casesa projects GM sales to be off ten percent from a year ago, while Ford sales are trending five percent higher and Chrysler is showing a likely gain of two to three percent versus a year ago, at best. The brokerage also predicts that sales of the non-Detroit OEMs sales will increase six percent year-over-year, boosting market share by about 220 basis points to 41.5 percent. GM has trimmed its inventory in line with production, as has Chrysler. Ford, which didn't start its employee pricing offer until July 1, has the highest inventories among the Big Three. -Jim Burt A 10% drop in sales really isn't too bad, IMO, especially if GM can get inventory restocked and have a decent September.