$25 a barrel oil predictions

[BuddyP]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,462284,00.html

[CARBIZ]

What more is there to say? If the current economic crisis doesn't kill GM, pouring all their money into the Volt (which won't sell at $2 a gallon) could.

Sub $30 a barrel is a disaster on so many levels. This is going to delay so many projects that could make North America get off oil dependency.

[longtooth]

Deflationary pressures lend a certain 'depth' to any economic downturn. This downturn we're now experiencing will bring a new perception to those not ever having had lived through a hard times.

It's not only gas, it's most commodities, housing prices and extreme pressure on wages.

[Z-06]

Nothing wrong with that, GM already has trucks developed just in case fickle consumers go that route, and they will have Volt in case gas takes upshot. I understand that the investment into the Volt will be lost if gas stays low, but who knows in 6 months whether gas does not go up. It is better to have vehicles covering the entire spectrum than putting holes in the lineup (I hope that is one of the mistakes GM learnt not to make). Delta Cobalt will take the bill for efficient and cheap transport if people want one. GM already has two mode almost around the corner, so they can push those.

Think of it the only money GM spent tremendously on the Volt was on battery. (But like someone says if Volt was only PR bull then GM did not spend not too much on the battery .) This battery knowledge would help in developing EREV for hydrogen and other propulsions. I personally do not think GM should relax their development on alternative energy propulsions even if gas hits $1/gallon because like I have said before Oil needs competitor, and developing competitor when oil being $1/gallon will make more business sense than it being $4/gallon.

[Northstar]

Isn't it a little early to be worrying about what gas prices will be when the Volt comes out? That's 2 years away.

[loki]

gallon of gas just hit $.92 on the market

I think it won't go lower than $.80, unless we have a total melt down ...that'd put a barrel at, what, ~$35?

[Croc]

Isn't it a little early to be worrying about what gas prices will be when the Volt comes out? That's 2 years away.

One year out, I thought? It's marketed as the 2010 Volt, and that means it's released between 1/1/2009 and 12/31/2009.

[Camino LS6]

...and the tactics of the pusher resurface.

[pow]

One year out, I thought? It's marketed as the 2010 Volt, and that means it's released between 1/1/2009 and 12/31/2009.

The Volt is MY 2011 and, according to GM, will arrive November 2010.

[Intrepidation]

This is one of those cases where it pays to have a diverse portfolio of vehicles. Luckily for Detroit, they have a deverse lineup of excellent trucks/larger vehicles. They just have to make sure that they get all of the cars up to snuff so they can be ready for fluctuating demand. Of course what also needs to happen is the ability for people to actually get credit.

Thing is that once the economy eventually recovers, gas will go right back up.

[Satty]

There is a huge downside to oil prices tumbling. If the economies in oil producing countries collapse and we have another oil shortage because we cant get any shipped, we dont have the infastructure in place to weather a long term major energy crisis.

[Camino LS6]

There is a huge downside to oil prices tumbling. If the economies in oil producing countries collapse and we have another oil shortage because we cant get any shipped, we dont have the infastructure in place to weather a long term major energy crisis.

I don't see much risk of that. OPEC is notoriously bad at sticking to production cuts, some of them always need the money.

I'd be more worried about a hurricane, harsh winter, or terrorist attack. Any of those would give the speculators all that they need to drive the price back up to uncomfortable levels again. And, with our current economy, the pain threshold is now much lower.

Crazy days.

[haypops]

There is a huge downside to oil prices tumbling. If the economies in oil producing countries collapse and we have another oil shortage because we cant get any shipped, we dont have the infastructure in place to weather a long term major energy crisis.

Some of the oil producing countries that are hurting include Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Russia is somewhat protected as at least half their petroleum production is natural gas which is not dropping it's price in the same manner. I don't see the downside to this.

[cletus8269]

Some of the oil producing countries that are hurting include Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. Russia is somewhat protected as at least half their petroleum production is natural gas which is not dropping it's price in the same manner. I don't see the downside to this.

Yeah that douche chavez was boo hooing about his country not having the money to run power because the price of oil was so low now... guess they should have stuck some dough back when we were getting ripped a new one... or maybe heres a thought raise their own gas prices. even a 2-5 cent hike in price makes a difference.

[Satty]

You dont see a downside to brutal leaders like Putin, Ahmadinejad and Chavez being able to say, "Our people cant make money because of American incompetance"? Anti-American sentiment could grow even more worldwide if nations we haven't yet ruined become wastelands, which will lead to attacks on American interests and possibly America itself.

[Camino LS6]

You dont see a downside to brutal leaders like Putin, Ahmadinejad and Chavez being able to say, "Our people cant make money because of American incompetance"? Anti-American sentiment could grow even more worldwide if nations we haven't yet ruined become wastelands, which will lead to attacks on American interests and possibly America itself.

That's a bit of a stretch, I think.

Those that hate us are already planning attacks.

What do you think might happen if we actually get off our butts and move significantly to energy independence?

[Satty]

When we do get serious about energy independance (and I have a feeling that will be a huge part of the next administration) it will still be a few years before we can really tell the oil producing world to go f@#k itself. But when that day comes, and I have a feeling it will come in my lifetime, I'll be the happiest person alive.

But I really do think destabilization in the middle east, and Russia and Venezuela will directly lead to attacks on American interests, just because there will always be the extremists who blame everything on us. China gets oil from Iran. We get useless crap from China. If Americans cant buy Chinese crap, China doesn't buy Iranian oil, Iran's economy slips, Ahmadinejad blames it all on America, Islamic extremists become more motivated to take down "the great evil."

[Camino LS6]

He already has dozens of "reasons" to do that.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

That's what I was thinking...

If we were smart as a country, we would SEIZE the moment as fast as possible and use the access to cheap energy to BUILD AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOMETHING ELSE.

Think about the JOBS it would create!

But alas, no one in government is that smart.

[Satty]

Very true, but increased economic stress will only make it worse. If the value of oil can hold at about $50/barrel for 5 years or so, until we at least get the beginnings of a new domestic-sourced power grid, we'll be in much better shape as far as national security is concerned. It would be very tough for the U.S. to defend domestic and international interests if it doesn't have any oil. Venezuela (which I failed to mention in my last post) is an even bigger wild card, because their country is all ready all sorts of messed up, yet they're our 3rd largest source of foreign oil.

[Camino LS6]

It's a scary time in a scary world to be sure.

[haypops]

The bad boys that we were talking about use the profits of 150/barrel oil to buy off other trouble makers and make themselves popular with their own people. The lower oil price is just all good. Many economist say that the recession will be busted more by the low oil prices than by government bailouts of AIG, etc.

Edited December 6, 2008 by haypops

[Satty]

FOG--Obama has had a Green Collar Jobs initiative laid out for quite some time, given the political capital he has, I wouldn't be shocked if its one of the first things passed and Congress fast tracks money for wind/solar/hydrogen projects.

Camino--Yes, we live in a frightening time, it seems as if everything possible is going wrong at the same time, but I really believe we're going to come through stronger, smarter and better.

[Satty]

CNN said a little while ago that Pelosi was willing to go with the White House plan of using the Green Tech funds for the bailout. That would amount to a bridge loan, but I hope the government keeps on top of the Big 3 (and gets on top of imports) in regards to green tech. Not just cars, but production facilities, transportation, the whole thing. I've said it before, carbon tariffs on imported vehicles (based on the countries they're built in) could help the domestics in many ways.

[Camino LS6]

FOG--Obama has had a Green Collar Jobs initiative laid out for quite some time, given the political capital he has, I wouldn't be shocked if its one of the first things passed and Congress fast tracks money for wind/solar/hydrogen projects.

Camino--Yes, we live in a frightening time, it seems as if everything possible is going wrong at the same time, but I really believe we're going to come through stronger, smarter and better.

Lend me some of that optimism, would you?

I could use it.

[Satty]

Americans are as resilient a bunch as this world has ever seen. We're going to have it rough for a while, but you just have to look at history. The parallels to the late-20's are there and I think we're going to government fund our way out of this the same way we did it out of the Depression. Instead of increased arms productions (first for Lend-Lease, then for American use in the War) this time its going to be energy independence (possibly leading to the U.S. becoming an energy exporter) that does it.

[Camino LS6]

Americans are as resilient a bunch as this world has ever seen. We're going to have it rough for a while, but you just have to look at history. The parallels to the late-20's are there and I think we're going to government fund our way out of this the same way we did it out of the Depression. Instead of increased arms productions (first for Lend-Lease, then for American use in the War) this time its going to be energy independence (possibly leading to the U.S. becoming an energy exporter) that does it.

I like that scenario...

but there are others.

[regfootball]

That's what I was thinking...

If we were smart as a country, we would SEIZE the moment as fast as possible and use the access to cheap energy to BUILD AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOMETHING ELSE.

Think about the JOBS it would create!

But alas, no one in government is that smart.

ain't that the truth.

[Sixty8panther]

That's what I was thinking...

If we were smart as a country, we would SEIZE the moment as fast as possible and use the access to cheap energy to BUILD AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOMETHING ELSE.

Think about the JOBS it would create!

But alas, no one in government is that smart.

+1

[Drew Dowdell]

That's what I was thinking...

If we were smart as a country, we would SEIZE the moment as fast as possible and use the access to cheap energy to BUILD AN INFRASTRUCTURE FOR SOMETHING ELSE.

Think about the JOBS it would create!

But alas, no one in government is that smart.

Barack Obama - Green collar jobs

* Ensure 10 percent of Our Electricity Comes from Renewable Sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.

* Deploy the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest Energy Source -- Energy Efficiency - Obama and Biden will set an aggressive energy efficiency goal -- to reduce electricity demand 15 percent from projected levels by 2020.

* Weatherize One Million Homes Annually - Obama and Biden will make a national commitment to weatherize at least one million low-income homes each year for the next decade, which can reduce energy usage across the economy and help moderate energy prices for all.

* Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology - Obama’s Department of Energy will enter into public private partnerships to develop five “first-of-a-kind” commercial scale coal-fired plants with clean carbon capture and sequestration technology.

* Prioritize the Construction of the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline - As president, Obama will work with stakeholders to facilitate construction of the pipeline. Not only is this pipeline critical to our energy security, it will create thousands of new jobs.

[loki]

with oil this cheap.... can any other energy be economical/cheaper (without billions thrown at any industry?)?

wouldn't gov't cut in spending be just more useful than an increase in gov't spending (other than programs that DO help, like bridges and interstates)

we were warned about the chaos that central banks create in the market and the country as a whole. we need to restore lawful money, the law, and confidence in both of these.

[loki]

so $25 sure hasn't hit yet....

not sure where or when but i thought i said gas might level off around $2.50..well it was about .25 less than that in my area recently.... but has come back up a little just today...

[loki]

so $25 sure hasn't hit yet....

not sure where or when but i thought i said gas might level off around $2.50..well it was about .25 less than that in my area recently.... but has come back up a little just today...

it's 2.33 or so here.

[Nick]

Just paid $3.45 for 91 out here, and it is going up.

[balthazar]

* Weatherize One Million Homes Annually - Obama and Biden will make a national commitment to weatherize at least one million low-income homes each year for the next decade, which can reduce energy usage across the economy and help moderate energy prices for all.

Depressingly typical of government-run programs :

>>"...after a year, the stimulus program has retrofitted 30,250 homes -- about 5 percent of the overall goal..."<<

Note, if you will, that at 5%, 30K homes puts the target total at 605K, or barely half of "1 million".

Linkity

Edited June 16, 2010 by balthazar