If Oil remains low when the Volt is introduced Will it be doomed?

[hyperv6]

None of us can predict what will happen. Just six months ago high gas and oil prices was here to stay.

Well as we know we are just under $2 in my area. Truck sales are up again and Cobalt sales that were booming are now sitting on dealer lots.

If by chance the oil remains down due to deflation. Chevy then brings out the Volt at just under $50,000 Just who will buy them? Will it just be the Ed Begly Jr's of the world or a Politician trying to make a statment for his image.

GM's timing has been as bad as it can be with product timing. It is nothing they could have done of late it was just happen stance.

But they need to Volt to sell for all the money they have in this program. How can they move cars if gas remains under $2. We may be back at $5 by then but it is something they are going to have to deal with. This car needs to be more than a novalty.

Bama I fear will pass some laws that will increase the price of all energy I fear and I suspect this may be a non issue but I just was thinking low gas prices are the worst thing to move Volts.

Will the technology win out on the short commuters who want to be on battery all the time and not have to buy any gas?

Just something to consider.

[A Horse With No Name]

Oil won't remiain low for very long...enjoy it while you can!

Chris

[Intrepidation]

First, it's Obama.

Second, it may be an issue, but gas prices will no doubt rise again when the economy recovers (whenever that may be) and fuel consumption goes back up. Fluctuating gas prices are why there should be a balanced portfolio of vehicles, so production can shift from one type to the other based on demand at that moment, and all of them be good products.

Plus, there will always be techno buyers and trend setters who crave the latest high tech thing.

Edited November 20, 2008 by Dodgefan

[Satty]

Gas prices fell because demand fell because everyone became poor at once. We'll see gas prices have all sorts of crazy fluctuations in the coming months and years.

[A Horse With No Name]

Exactly.

But no more oil is being made in the ground, so we need to work on alternates now. I like the Volt-I hope it does well.

Be interesting to see, though...

Chris

[AAS]

Did people with EV1's care about gas prices?

By the way... what was the EV1's range on full charge? Weight? The Volt's range doesn't exceed the EV1's, does it?

[loki]

Did people with EV1's care about gas prices?

By the way... what was the EV1's range on full charge? Weight? The Volt's range doesn't exceed the EV1's, does it?

I thought it was arond 100 miles, maybe 150?

the volt does 40 miles on a charge before the engine starts, supposedly. i'm gonna guess if you don't have gas, it might make it 48...?

[Newbiewar]

the volt and prius will always have their callings... but at some point it is not cost effective.... if you intend on having a car to drive to the liquor store and back a few times a week... then it is a great idea... but for the average buying public... the price of gas is too shaky... if people's confidence was restored, gm would be selling the GMT900's again...

[capriceman]

Did people with EV1's care about gas prices?

By the way... what was the EV1's range on full charge? Weight? The Volt's range doesn't exceed the EV1's, does it?

drive motor: maintenance-free 137hp 3-phase AC induction motor

batteries: 26 advanced recombinant lead-acid batteries for high voltage system, 1- auxiliary battery for 12 volt systems

charging system: Delco-Hughes MagneCharge inductively coupled magnetic field charging

trunk space: 10 cubic feet length: 169.8 inches max. width: 69.3 inches wheelbase: 98.9 inches

curb weight: 2,970 lbs. drag coefficient: 0.19

HOW FAR CAN YOU DRIVE ON A CHARGE?

I have two driving techniques for my personal EV1: "economy mode" which has given me up to 80 miles range of freeway driving at 65-70 mph, and a "let's see what this thing can do" mode around town that yields a range of 45-50 miles. This has proven to be more than satisfactory for my needs. With over a year and 13,500+ miles on the odometer, I have yet to "run out of juice."

http://www.ev1.pair.com/charge_across_amer..._html/faqs.html

the last gen ev1 with NiMH have been said to go to 150 mi and proposed mods and new tech could of pushed the EV! past 300 miles on a charge.

[SAmadei]

But no more oil is being made in the ground...

Actually, we don't know that. Playing devil's advocate, its only theory that dinosaurs and old plants turn to oil. And it has cropped up from various sources over the past ten years that many old oil wells are refilling.

http://www.rense.com/general63/refil.htm

http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2002/4/24/101927/375

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html...;pagewanted=all

Obviously, to be taken with a grain of salt.

Edited November 20, 2008 by SAmadei

[CARBIZ]

Gas prices fell because demand fell because everyone became poor at once. We'll see gas prices have all sorts of crazy fluctuations in the coming months and years.

Yes, but the world demand for oil didn't suddenly drop 50%. That is what pisses me off. Oil goes from $147 to under $60 in 3 months and we are expected to swallow that the 'markets' are doing what they are supposed to be doing.

[Cremazie]

I would buy a volt regardless, it is a cool car. My boyfriend could commute to work without ever having to buy gas!

[balthazar]

>>"Gas prices fell because demand fell because everyone became poor at once. "<<

Gas prices rose to $147 & fell to now $51 due to the commodities market, supply & demand was a very minor contributing factor.

RE the Volt; gas wasn't unreasonable when the 2nd gen prius came on the market- the economic situation is going to continue to drive individuals, busniesses & government to conserve for at least a few years., Plus it's still considered 'cool, I think, to be 'green'.

[hyperv6]

My take on this is Oil will go back up but to be honest no one really knows.

I know the geenies and technos will buy this car but GM is counting on more people than the odd ones in the crowd to support this car.

GM needs the mainstream people to accept this car and buy this car. The Prius did ok at intro then died off only to regain popularity with the increas in gas prices. We can not judge the Volt by the EV1 either as that was only testing the waters and was never a car that was expected to be production.

Also if the Oil goes up on a bad economy no one will have the money to buy one.

Kind of a Catch 22.

[daves87rs]

Oil won't remiain low for very long...enjoy it while you can!

Chris

Agreed.

The people that I know who plan to buy a Volt-still plan to.

It's going to take years to us to stop feeling butthurt about how bad the oil companies got us-people are not going to forget that overnight.

Of course trucks will sell-but not in those high numbers. And when the economy does improve, I expect to see those Cobalts (or Cruzes) sell just fine , thank you.

As much as prices are down(and I would still like a truck), I still plan on buying a Cruze because I would like an affordable car......

[PurdueGuy]

I think the early adopters will probably at least support the limited production of the first year or two. It's the long-term success that's more questionable.

[Satty]

Supply and demand plays a role in speculation.

[Camino LS6]

It may actually be good thing to have fuel prices somewhat low at the Volt's intro, that will give GM the time it will need to ramp-up production to a level that can meet demand when prices rise again.

And we all know that the prices will rise again.

[daves87rs]

It may actually be good thing to have fuel prices somewhat low at the Volt's intro, that will give GM the time it will need to ramp-up production to a level that can meet demand when prices rise again.

And we all know that the prices will rise again.

So true...

[gm4life]

How fast will the price rise and how high will they go tho? I could see gas leveling out in the 2.50-3.50 area depending on where you live. Also people made sh*t out of Bush all the time and if you call him 'Bama I don't really have a problem with it. It is a two way street. :AH-HA_wink:

Because he got in I won't be buying one of these anytime soon and that is a shame...>

Edited November 21, 2008 by gm4life

[hyperv6]

Well according to the so called experts the oil prices will remian low for a good time longer than expected.

One conflict in the Middle East can change that quick.

Large vehicles will vanish just because of the CAFE laws inplace to large truck sales will be limited and no one will ramp up any plants already set to shut down.

The question really will be this. Will People pay the price differance for a Volt vs a Cruze. If gas is in the $2 range I don't see many paying the large amount of differance in price.

Say if the price for a Cruze is $30K and the Volt is $45K then less a goverment tax rebate how long if ever would they make up the cost savings.

I know there some of those who will buy to save the enviroment but lets face the truth, most buyers are looking to save money. Everyone complains about Walmart but everyone shops there to save money.

For the Volt to work it needs to save people money and do it before the car is worn out or the battery needs replaced.

Everyone talks of CEO and Banker greed but lets face it the consumer is just as greedy to keep their money to spend on themselves.

One other thing that would help the Volt is a fuel and oil shortage.

I now own a Tubo 4 cylinder as I know in the future it will prove to be the wise move for a daily driver. But in the general public the majority of people live for today. They have little wisdom on planning ahead. This is why there are few people with savings accounts and credit cars charged over $10,000 and little hope of paying them off. It is the tomarrow will never come sydrome.

Lets face it for the Volt to make it it needs to be as cheap or cheaper to buy and operate over the ownership time of the car. It is not going to make it just as a status symbol alone.

I feel if gas does not go above $4 or higher I feel it will be a hard sell after the first intro buyers.

Edited November 21, 2008 by hyperv6

[Camino LS6]

I can't agree with you, Hyper.

Here's why:

- At first, Volt production will not meet demand

- Fuel prices could go back up at any time and we all know it.

- Eventually, urban centers will ban anything but zero-emission vehicles

- As E-flex is utilized on other models the costs will come down

- Volt has an appeal beyond simply being "green", so it has a wider audience

- Government incentives are almost guaranteed

[A Horse With No Name]

We need a thread on how the automotive market will change in the next 5-6 years. We have a lot of good minds at C and G, and I don't think that we really think about the context of what the automotive market really is/will be sometimes.

Camino, I couldn't agree with your rational and reality based post any more. I personally think the Volt will be one of the cars that saves GM.

Rush Limbaugh was bashing the Volt and GM the other day, and that Idiot can't get anything right...so if he says its going to be terrible it';s bouund to be a hit.

Chris

[hyperv6]

I can't agree with you, Hyper.

Here's why:

- At first, Volt production will not meet demand

- Fuel prices could go back up at any time and we all know it.

- Eventually, urban centers will ban anything but zero-emission vehicles

- As E-flex is utilized on other models the costs will come down

- Volt has an appeal beyond simply being "green", so it has a wider audience

- Government incentives are almost guaranteed

Here is why I can't agree yet!

-You and I don't know true demand yet. If gas is still cheap many will not pay the extras money for this car unless they save money over a cheaper car like the Cruze. Only time will tell.

-Fuel prices could go up at anytime. But then again we were never to see gas under $2 again. Again time will tell.

-We are a long way off of banning all but Zero emmision vehicles in urban areas yet. We need alot more of them before they can do that. One car is just not going to do that.

-E Flex will come down in price but it is going to take time and will not help the Volt at intro and for good number of years.

-The Goverment incentive is good but is it going to be good enough to make this car a cost saver for the average person over a small gas or deisel engined car that is cheaper to buy.

The average buyer is not going to pay a preimum for a car that they will not get their peremium money paid back on during the life of the car with fuel savings. The buyer who can afford the premium will keep his CTS as he is not wooried about fuel cost.

There is no answer to this questions and no one is right or wrong till we know what the fuel price is at the intro and the first 2 years of this car.

Here is the bottom line If it is low it will hurt this car in ways GM can't fix and if they fuel price is high they will sell out.

[Drew Dowdell]

Yes, but the world demand for oil didn't suddenly drop 50%. That is what pisses me off. Oil goes from $147 to under $60 in 3 months and we are expected to swallow that the 'markets' are doing what they are supposed to be doing.

Carbiz, you're smarter than this. Demand was nearing maximum supply capacity, since there was little slack in and inelastic market the initial spike in price occurred. The initial price spike fueled fears and a buying spree <sprinkled with some corruption> shot the prices up to that $147 market.

People reacted surprisingly quickly, shifting to lower mileage vehicles, carpooling, flooding public transit. That killed demand at the retail level. Many of those users aren't coming back. (Anecdotal: I went from a full size SUV and Sports Sedan to no vehicle at all using public transit, car sharing, and borrowing my BF's car with no inconvenience)

At the same time, the people who were still driving lots could no longer afford to both fill up their vehicles AND buy goods and services. That, combined with the mortgage crisis and credit crisis, is killing the retail sector. No retail sales means no shipments via truck, train, ship. No shipments means factories all over the world close. The demand has been killed in the commercial sector.

Since supply is relatively fixed, even a 10% drop in demand would cause huge pools of surplus to form. The U.S. consumes about 7.6 billion barrels of oil a year. A 10% drop in demand means that there are an extra 760 million barrels out there on the market that were expected to be sold but weren't.

Since last November, American driving has dropped by over 90 billion miles. At an average fuel economy of 20mpg, we saved 4.5 billion gallons of gasoline.

In this perfect storm we've had a huge drop in demand, not 50%, but enough to cause this cascading effect on oil prices.

[A Horse With No Name]

Let's hope people keep conserving.

Chris

[smk4565]

Say if the price for a Cruze is $30K and the Volt is $45K then less a goverment tax rebate how long if ever would they make up the cost savings.

If a Cruze is $30k, gas prices won't matter because no one is going to buy it anyway. They struggle to get $15k for a Cobalt, they'll be lucky to get $18k for a Cruze. (transaction price, not loaded before rebates)

[hyperv6]

If a Cruze is $30k, gas prices won't matter because no one is going to buy it anyway. They struggle to get $15k for a Cobalt, they'll be lucky to get $18k for a Cruze. (transaction price, not loaded before rebates)

I expect by the time the Cruze hits the maket a fully loaded one will be near $28K base models will be in the high teens. It still be in Accord price range.

I just posted my estimate on the high side to make the price between the Volt and it as low as possible.

I noted today many co workers watching Fox news at the LA auto show anounce the $40K plus price on the Volt. All of them reacted to it like GM is crazy. They all said they might consider it if it was $25K.

[CARBIZ]

As I posted earlier, GM had better pray oil prices rise dramatically over the next 2 years; otherwise, the Volt could flop. Americans have proven to be a stubborn lot. The rest of the world made the switch to small cars in the '70s and stayed with it. North America did not. We all bought K-Cars and Chevettes in the '80s, then switched to SUVs and minivans. A very big minority of people believe small cars or fuel efficient cars equate cheap cars.

I think it will be the most awful irony if GM sacrifices everything to bring the Volt out - at the expense of truck development, only to have $2 gas the norm for the next few years again. We'll never know if Toyota makes money on the Prius, but we do know that they don't have to amortize the development charges for the Synergy Drive, do they?

[GXT]

The Volt is not a good economic choice even at gas prices much higher than what we saw. The argument for the Volt is about the Volt buyer accepting that they will ultimately be paying more $$$ but using less gas.

Regarding range, according to Lutz he got the equivalent of ~32 miles of range out of a Volt prototype at freeway speeds. Time will tell if that will get better or if it will get worse (as GM's hybrid buses did) as it moves close to production. I've believed the 40 miles was a best case number (city, no heat/ac, etc.), so 32 miles on the highway seems more than reasonable.

[Chicagoland]

Even with cheaper gas, GM needs to still sell the Volt for Public Relations and to appease Greenies, who want these cars.

Prius sales are down, but Toyota is not going to suddenly drop the car.

Long term, we cant rely on cheap oil.

[BuddyP]

Yes, but the world demand for oil didn't suddenly drop 50%. That is what pisses me off. Oil goes from $147 to under $60 in 3 months and we are expected to swallow that the 'markets' are doing what they are supposed to be doing.

The demand for GM cars didn't drop 80% in the past year either but the stock price did. Two different variables there. And if China's currently shakey economy does collapse look for oil to drop to around $25 a barrel meaning possibly $1 or just over a gallon gas for us.

[BuddyP]

As I posted earlier, GM had better pray oil prices rise dramatically over the next 2 years; otherwise, the Volt could flop. Americans have proven to be a stubborn lot. The rest of the world made the switch to small cars in the '70s and stayed with it. North America did not. We all bought K-Cars and Chevettes in the '80s, then switched to SUVs and minivans. A very big minority of people believe small cars or fuel efficient cars equate cheap cars.

I think it will be the most awful irony if GM sacrifices everything to bring the Volt out - at the expense of truck development, only to have $2 gas the norm for the next few years again. We'll never know if Toyota makes money on the Prius, but we do know that they don't have to amortize the development charges for the Synergy Drive, do they?

Unfortunatly the majority of american's are greedy and live in the "moment". Eventually it's going to kick us all in the ass... and it might be starting now.

[hyperv6]

I see if the MFG get the bail out we will be forced into cars like the Volt like it or not.

Either high fuel prices or forced Gov regs/ taxes will be the only way these cars will remain strong. Americans will not just buy them at their own free will.

Also the price will drop as more are sold. It is a simple catch 22 till the car and technology is in greater numbers. Remember when the Texas Insterments Electronic Slide Rules came out and they were $500.00. Now you can buy one for $10 that is even more capable.