Detroit News: "GM will announce 'important changes'"

[evok]

Trust me evok, I wouldn't waste my time. I see you're just as nasty as you always were. Oh, welcome back by the way! :AH-HA_wink:

When people cannot offer specifics, facts, proof, real solutions or a good rationale - I have always called it as I see it.

Since I reared my "ugly" head from oblivion I have at least offered some of the above as I always had (Like it or not)!

Edited November 8, 2008 by evok

[daves87rs]

Let's keep the personal attacks down to low roar, shall we?

I could give two $h!s on who did what-I am here for GM, an I can assume that others are too..

[Croc]

When people cannot offer specifics, facts, proof, real solutions or a good rationale - I have always called it as I see it.

Since I reared my "ugly" head from oblivion I have at least offered some of the above as I always had (Like it or not)!

Good to see you again, always informative.

[thegriffon]

I don't see government help coming unless GM first sells off whatever they can, takes whatever loans they can, gets union concessions, and has a plan to change their business model. The gov't won't loan them $20 billion so they can burn through it and be in the same situation a year later.

They only have 100-120 days of cash left also, come February they could be done. Their best hope at this point is probably if Toyota buys them and spares 2-3 brands and maybe half the workforce. But I don't think Toyota wants them.

They've already done most of what you are suggesting, the problem is it doesn't really have much effect until 2010. They should have been OK until then, only congress f—ed up and destroyed the credit markets by demanding lenders make riskier loans to people who could not afford them, while doing nothing to keep people employed. For all the blame being laid on Wallstreet (and lenders do share some of the blame), this economic catastrophe was created by Democratic administrations and congressmen. Lending restrictions were relaxed under the Clinton administration, not the Bush, in a vain attempt to enable more people to buy homes (they were not alone, it has been the policy of governments of every stripe worldwide). n doing so they helped create an unsustainable housing bubble that eventually burst when too many people could not repay their astronomical mortgages. Then, when the first symptoms were appearing last year, Democratic congressmen demanded that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae take on even more bad mortgages to keep the money flowing (if you don't believe me the NY Times has a great series of articles outlining how the crisis developed and the contributions made by Democratic congressmen and the Clinton administration). As a result GM cannot borrow against assets like Ford did. It cannot find buyers for assets like Ford did, it cannot refinance etc.. No-one, not even Toyota, can make money in North America right now, so many people are struggling with bills, upside down mortgages, the collapse in the housing market and job security, mortgages and home equity loans worth far more than their properties etc., and no credit available to dealers or customers to buy cars. GM was fighting a tough battle to be sure, but congress has shot the horse from under them with their blundering interference in lending practices. It would be only fair that they now provide billions of dollars in compensation. Hell, I'd be inclined to start a class action, but I doubt it would be allowed.

Despite efforts by the UAW, the chairmen of the Big 3 and Democrats such as Dingell (a man whose policies I support on many issues) to lobby speaker Pelosi and other Democrats for emergency government investment, their support only goes so far to ask the Bush administration to use the existing funds for the mortgage bailout, in full knowledge that they legally can't. It appears they see this as an opportunity to destroy the auto industry, while letting the Bush administration take the blame. Pelosi is from California, so I'm sure the California high-speed rail project will go through, but otherwise y'all will have to walk, or buy a Chinese bicycle and pedal. Somehow I don't think Pelosi understands what it takes to get to work in the middle of a midwestern winter. You can wait for Obama to act but no matter what he asks for I suspect all he'll get from congress is a modest aid package for the workers laid off in the immediate aftermath. Gettelfinger needs to reach out to the pilots, the railway unions etc and put Washington under seige until he gets a package to save his union from extinction. He should have done it years ago, but he's apparently not that smart.

[regfootball]

They've already done most of what you are suggesting, the problem is it doesn't really have much effect until 2010. They should have been OK until then, only congress f—ed up and destroyed the credit markets by demanding lenders make riskier loans to people who could not afford them, while doing nothing to keep people employed. For all the blame being laid on Wallstreet (and lenders do share some of the blame), this economic catastrophe was created by Democratic administrations and congressmen. Lending restrictions were relaxed under the Clinton administration, not the Bush, in a vain attempt to enable more people to buy homes (they were not alone, it has been the policy of governments of every stripe worldwide). n doing so they helped create an unsustainable housing bubble that eventually burst when too many people could not repay their astronomical mortgages. Then, when the first symptoms were appearing last year, Democratic congressmen demanded that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae take on even more bad mortgages to keep the money flowing (if you don't believe me the NY Times has a great series of articles outlining how the crisis developed and the contributions made by Democratic congressmen and the Clinton administration). As a result GM cannot borrow against assets like Ford did. It cannot find buyers for assets like Ford did, it cannot refinance etc.. No-one, not even Toyota, can make money in North America right now, so many people are struggling with bills, upside down mortgages, the collapse in the housing market and job security, mortgages and home equity loans worth far more than their properties etc., and no credit available to dealers or customers to buy cars. GM was fighting a tough battle to be sure, but congress has shot the horse from under them with their blundering interference in lending practices. It would be only fair that they now provide billions of dollars in compensation. Hell, I'd be inclined to start a class action, but I doubt it would be allowed.

Despite efforts by the UAW, the chairmen of the Big 3 and Democrats such as Dingell (a man whose policies I support on many issues) to lobby speaker Pelosi and other Democrats for emergency government investment, their support only goes so far to ask the Bush administration to use the existing funds for the mortgage bailout, in full knowledge that they legally can't. It appears they see this as an opportunity to destroy the auto industry, while letting the Bush administration take the blame. Pelosi is from California, so I'm sure the California high-speed rail project will go through, but otherwise y'all will have to walk, or buy a Chinese bicycle and pedal. Somehow I don't think Pelosi understands what it takes to get to work in the middle of a midwestern winter. You can wait for Obama to act but no matter what he asks for I suspect all he'll get from congress is a modest aid package for the workers laid off in the immediate aftermath. Gettelfinger needs to reach out to the pilots, the railway unions etc and put Washington under seige until he gets a package to save his union from extinction. He should have done it years ago, but he's apparently not that smart.

yeah, usually the bangers for all the 'walkable communities' and mass transit and kumbaya living and all of that, don't get the transportation in midwestern winters thing. one hellish winter in fargo for Ms Pelosi or any granola banger from berkeley, and they won't be even thinking bicycle anytime from November through march.

[thegriffon]

Oh, and repeated claims by certain people that GM is planning to shut down certain divisions, does nothing to help. It is yet another "self-fulfilling prophecy", undermining sales and forcing GM to do so, whatever they really plan. It undermines the divisions in question, it undermines GM's revenue, it undermines the credibility of management who repeatedly say it isn't so (but of course this appears to be the purpose). I can respect Evok, De Lorenzo and others who say Pontiac should go (as much as I disagree), but I have nothing but contempt for someone who does his best to ensure it happens through the spread of demoralizing and malicious allegations, rumor and innuendo. All it does is accelerate GM's decline, and open the company to lawsuits from dealers alleging misleading and deceptive conduct if they do one day decide to shut down the division. I can understand that GM may not have enough money to develop unique products for Pontiac, in fact that's nothing new, Pontiac has rarely had unique products anyway (what is the G3 but a direct replacement for the last Le Mans). But to suggest Pontiac is being denied products because of a secret conspiracy to eliminate the brand is either delusional or scandalous. What must be will be, it does not need a secret master plan.

[Robert Hall]

yeah, usually the bangers for all the 'walkable communities' and mass transit and kumbaya living and all of that, don't get the transportation in midwestern winters thing. one hellish winter in fargo for Ms Pelosi or any granola banger from berkeley, and they won't be even thinking bicycle anytime from November through march.

I wonder which would be worse, a winter in Fargo or a summer in Phoenix I've lived through NE Ohio and SE Michigan winters, but Fargo would be much worse, I think. I can't imagine why people would want to live there...

[CMG]

Let's forget the personal attacks on each other- and gather round to fully embrace and pat on the back the brightest member here.

"CMG" as he calls himself said the Chrysler takeover rumors were rubbish, and the GM would NOT be tossing Cerberus's $11,000,000,000 in it's pocket, then picking what to keep such as Jeeps and minivans before tossing the rest of Chrysler's carcass in a ditch, like many here foolishly thought.

I now say this CMG poster MUST be the reincarnation of Nostradamus.

ALL HAIL NOSTRADAMUS!

:AH-HA_wink:

[CMG]

I wonder which would be worse, a winter in Fargo or a summer in Phoenix

I would much rather drive a Fargo in the winter. The Pontiac in the summer is therefore "worse".

[ellives]

It's always interesting watching these posts blame the problems (at any given time) on specific political parties when we haven't had a filibuster-proof congress in quite a while. The reality is the credit problem can actually be traced back to the high price of energy. Most/Many people were making their mortgage payments until gas got to be 4 and 5 bucks a gallon. Once you're spending higher and higher percentages of your income on energy (including heating costs up in New England) you have to start decided what you're NOT going to pay. Once this starts to happen with so many people on the edge, the "bubble" bursts and everyone starts to bail on their mortgages.

Clearly there are regulations that need to be established/fixed. I recognized we were in for a real estate meltdown over a year ago I started to see ads for "no doc" and zero percent down mortgages. The last time I saw this was just before the S&L crisis. Apparently we either learned nothing from that debacle or just forgot.

They've already done most of what you are suggesting, the problem is it doesn't really have much effect until 2010. They should have been OK until then, only congress f—ed up and destroyed the credit markets by demanding lenders make riskier loans to people who could not afford them, while doing nothing to keep people employed. For all the blame being laid on Wallstreet (and lenders do share some of the blame), this economic catastrophe was created by Democratic administrations and congressmen. Lending restrictions were relaxed under the Clinton administration, not the Bush, in a vain attempt to enable more people to buy homes (they were not alone, it has been the policy of governments of every stripe worldwide). n doing so they helped create an unsustainable housing bubble that eventually burst when too many people could not repay their astronomical mortgages. Then, when the first symptoms were appearing last year, Democratic congressmen demanded that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae take on even more bad mortgages to keep the money flowing (if you don't believe me the NY Times has a great series of articles outlining how the crisis developed and the contributions made by Democratic congressmen and the Clinton administration). As a result GM cannot borrow against assets like Ford did. It cannot find buyers for assets like Ford did, it cannot refinance etc.. No-one, not even Toyota, can make money in North America right now, so many people are struggling with bills, upside down mortgages, the collapse in the housing market and job security, mortgages and home equity loans worth far more than their properties etc., and no credit available to dealers or customers to buy cars. GM was fighting a tough battle to be sure, but congress has shot the horse from under them with their blundering interference in lending practices. It would be only fair that they now provide billions of dollars in compensation. Hell, I'd be inclined to start a class action, but I doubt it would be allowed.

Despite efforts by the UAW, the chairmen of the Big 3 and Democrats such as Dingell (a man whose policies I support on many issues) to lobby speaker Pelosi and other Democrats for emergency government investment, their support only goes so far to ask the Bush administration to use the existing funds for the mortgage bailout, in full knowledge that they legally can't. It appears they see this as an opportunity to destroy the auto industry, while letting the Bush administration take the blame. Pelosi is from California, so I'm sure the California high-speed rail project will go through, but otherwise y'all will have to walk, or buy a Chinese bicycle and pedal. Somehow I don't think Pelosi understands what it takes to get to work in the middle of a midwestern winter. You can wait for Obama to act but no matter what he asks for I suspect all he'll get from congress is a modest aid package for the workers laid off in the immediate aftermath. Gettelfinger needs to reach out to the pilots, the railway unions etc and put Washington under seige until he gets a package to save his union from extinction. He should have done it years ago, but he's apparently not that smart.

[longtooth]

It's always interesting watching these posts blame the problems (at any given time) on specific political parties when we haven't had a filibuster-proof congress in quite a while. The reality is the credit problem can actually be traced back to the high price of energy. Most/Many people were making their mortgage payments until gas got to be 4 and 5 bucks a gallon. Once you're spending higher and higher percentages of your income on energy (including heating costs up in New England) you have to start decided what you're NOT going to pay. Once this starts to happen with so many people on the edge, the "bubble" bursts and everyone starts to bail on their mortgages.

Clearly there are regulations that need to be established/fixed. I recognized we were in for a real estate meltdown over a year ago I started to see ads for "no doc" and zero percent down mortgages. The last time I saw this was just before the S&L crisis. Apparently we either learned nothing from that debacle or just forgot.

Classify as: Not saved by "Zero".

Collectively, society was kiting everything it could.

Wall Street would nearly asphyxiate itself if earnings didn't rise 3%-5% per quarter.

The House of the Falling Cards.

I hope that we have the grit, as did our elders, to put it back in working order.

[thegriffon]

Dude, I'm still seeing ads for zero percent down. It's crazy. Of course here te goverment is paying first home buyers enough for a sizeable deposit. Not enough for the major cities (which are still way over priced), but enough to get into a nice home in a small regional center.

[longtooth]

Dude, I'm still seeing ads for zero percent down. It's crazy. Of course here te goverment is paying first home buyers enough for a sizeable deposit. Not enough for the major cities (which are still way over priced), but enough to get into a nice home in a small regional center.

Wonder if there's greater scrutiny now? I wouldn't assume anything despite all of the hair-on-fire hysteria in the media.

Better that those properties have some sort of ownership or those neighborhoods gradually become as armed camps that police won't enter.

[haypops]

Dude, I'm still seeing ads for zero percent down. It's crazy. Of course here te goverment is paying first home buyers enough for a sizeable deposit. Not enough for the major cities (which are still way over priced), but enough to get into a nice home in a small regional center.

One of my daily chores is shreddng all those credit card applications that come unsolicitated in the mail. I haven't been well enough to work in 10 years. I think some of the offers we see are just "momentum" and if you apply for those zero percent down loans they vanish.

I think that if you check out the government grant thing you will see that it's a zero % interest loan (not bad!) but it can't be used as a down payment. It is useful, however, for repairs and furnishings on a newly purchased first home. By the way first home means no previous home ownership for the last three years.

[cletus8269]

It's always interesting watching these posts blame the problems (at any given time) on specific political parties when we haven't had a filibuster-proof congress in quite a while. The reality is the credit problem can actually be traced back to the high price of energy. Most/Many people were making their mortgage payments until gas got to be 4 and 5 bucks a gallon. Once you're spending higher and higher percentages of your income on energy (including heating costs up in New England) you have to start decided what you're NOT going to pay. Once this starts to happen with so many people on the edge, the "bubble" bursts and everyone starts to bail on their mortgages.

Clearly there are regulations that need to be established/fixed. I recognized we were in for a real estate meltdown over a year ago I started to see ads for "no doc" and zero percent down mortgages. The last time I saw this was just before the S&L crisis. Apparently we either learned nothing from that debacle or just forgot.

i think where most of the problem starts is people living above their means to begin with. "we want 2 cars and a 5 br / 3 bath house with 5 acres of land but combined onlny make 70K a year. i know we'll buy at the top end of our budget so we'll have the best of everything and still afford it". then when unforseen costs come along you are in deep dookie cause theres no buffer in the finances anymore. i wont blame parties, i wont blame energy costs. i'll blame the greed that has consumed the nation to where everyone thinks they deserve the best.

my house was built in 1898 that aint a typo, 1898. its 900 sq ft. 2 br 1 bath. its cold in the winter, hot in the summer. i drive a 2004 colorado and i have a collectors car. i would love a very nice house and a new truck every 3 years with a chevelle and a 2nd gen f-body flanking my fullsize but to tell the truth i would much rather have that blanket for when times (next few years) get tough.

Edited November 9, 2008 by cletus8269

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Not because it is deserved.

But it is...

Here is the real problem with all this news, the general public sees all of this too and by now has determined that GM is going bankrupt and will steer clear of GM and all domestics, so now we are in a self fulfilling prophecy.

According to plan...

Good to see you again, always informative.

+1

Yes evok, we usually don't agree... But a lot of times that's because I don't want to hear the truth

Edited November 10, 2008 by FUTURE_OF_GM

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

It's always interesting watching these posts blame the problems (at any given time) on specific political parties when we haven't had a filibuster-proof congress in quite a while. The reality is the credit problem can actually be traced back to the high price of energy. Most/Many people were making their mortgage payments until gas got to be 4 and 5 bucks a gallon. Once you're spending higher and higher percentages of your income on energy (including heating costs up in New England) you have to start decided what you're NOT going to pay. Once this starts to happen with so many people on the edge, the "bubble" bursts and everyone starts to bail on their mortgages.

Clearly there are regulations that need to be established/fixed. I recognized we were in for a real estate meltdown over a year ago I started to see ads for "no doc" and zero percent down mortgages. The last time I saw this was just before the S&L crisis. Apparently we either learned nothing from that debacle or just forgot.

Had the energy market NOT been de-regulated (which allowed WILD and UNFOUNDED speculation for the sake of a buck) by the government, we would've never HAD an energy bubble.

This entire mess boils down to a LACK of government oversight in the over all market, It's not the fault of DEMOCRATS or REPUBLICANS; BOTH are to blame. Capitalism cannot be allowed to eat this country alive like a cancer in a hospital patient. Our government lost touch a LONG time ago. (I wish I had a dollar for every time I've said that over the past 5 years) In fact, the government no longer RUNS this country, it's governed by PACTS and corporations and wealthy people with special interests. Wherever there is money to be had, the government is there. After all, they need billions to finance the next circ de politico in 4 years, right? They stopped caring about you and me (the little people) a LOOOONG time ago. Hopefully Obama can begin to change that, but we'll see.

The old saying goes: "Capitalism is creative destruction." and we're witnessing that firsthand in america (and to a larger extent) the world now.

Edited November 10, 2008 by FUTURE_OF_GM

[haypops]

In fact, the government no longer RUNS this country, it's governed by PACTS and corporations and wealthy people with special interests.

I donated to one politician this year. Not much; just $15/month. He refused all corporate donations. I would have supported him if he accepted money from the devil, but he took no corporate donations. He started to pull ahead in the polls. The week before the election his opponent received $60,000 from some of the Wall Street companies that were bailed out with our money. The votes are still being counted.

[Jamie]

I think that if you check out the government grant thing you will see that it's a zero % interest loan (not bad!) but it can't be used as a down payment. It is useful, however, for repairs and furnishings on a newly purchased first home. By the way first home means no previous home ownership for the last three years.

Nope. The First Home Owner Grant (FHOG) in Australia is just what it says, a grant, and it's a once in a lifetime grant.

[Chicagoland]

During the SUV 'boom', the high resale and demand enabled low lease payments. Also, the expectation to get a new one every 3 years. But, all the off lease trucks piled up, since used car buyers really couldnt afford the over priced tanks.

I also think that once word got down to the common car buyers that GM/F/C 'makes $10K on each SUV sale', people demanded huge discounts.

Then the s%$# hit the fan.....

[thegriffon]

One of my daily chores is shreddng all those credit card applications that come unsolicitated in the mail. I haven't been well enough to work in 10 years. I think some of the offers we see are just "momentum" and if you apply for those zero percent down loans they vanish.

I think that if you check out the government grant thing you will see that it's a zero % interest loan (not bad!) but it can't be used as a down payment. It is useful, however, for repairs and furnishings on a newly purchased first home. By the way first home means no previous home ownership for the last three years.

This is Australia I'm talking about. Up to $21,000 in a cash grant for first home buyers, 100% finance still available (110% if you have a guarantor), and waivers for the normal stamp duties and other government fees. No income test. Incredibly I am seeing the loan calculators saying people can afford to borrow a third of what they have been in the last 10-15 years, and that is at the now much lower interest rates that are starting to appear now. That would have put a real crimp in housing prices. Realtors of course are still claiming things are better than they are. We should be looking at home prices collapsing 60%, but I don't think sellers and realtors will ever accept that.

[thegriffon]

As for the $25 billion in funding for green car programs, GM will get nothing for the Volt, because the program was completed too soon, they will get no money for future programs either. They first have to spend the money, starting in 2009, and then apply for a loan to pay for it. Since they can't get money to spend beforehand, they can't get loans from the government afterwards. This way congress can appear to be making an investment in the industry and improving fuel economy, without actually doing so. Now you know why GM sounded so depressed and hopeless, They've recieved a handshake from government with one hand, and a stab in the back with the other.

[smk4565]

I don't blame the government, only GM. Toyota isn't crying that they need a bailout, they are on pace to make a $5 billion profit this year. GM still hasn't announced a plan on how to make money again. The government shouldn't give them money until they have a reorganization plan.

[thegriffon]

Well, I'll remember that when you join everyone else on the unemployment lines.

[thegriffon]

I can give you a reorganization plan that will save GM, one that even PCS would largely approve of (except that it includes Holden). Unfortunately it would mean the total destruction of all manufacturing in the US, at every level, in every sector of the economy. You and everyone else in the US would be unemployable within a couple of years. I can understand if that is something GM wants to avoid. Anything else will just be re-arranging the deck chairs on the titanic. Don't think that I am exaggerating. I am not. GM can abandon the North American market and American manufacturing completely, fire everyone, shut down all manufacturing in Western Europe, leave them with no pension or healthcare benefits, see every supplier collapse as a consequence, watch Toyota and Honda implode under North American losses as well (Toyota is predicting unexpected reductions in profits of as much as 90%, and if things get worse that could easily swing into billions of dollars in losses—if GM fails, then Ford fails, Chrysler fails, suppliers fails, and Toyota will be looking at losses even greater than GM—believe me, they have an enormous cash hoard to see them through, but they are very scared. Not only will they lose 60% or more of their own market, but they still own large chunks of suppliers which now depend on Detroit for a large chunk of business. A collapse of the Big three will result in the collapse of most suppliers, and a massive and long-lasting depression that will devastate Toyota, Honda and Nissan. The world's largest automaker could wind up being Suzuki or Tata), or they can ask governments in North America and Europe for billions of dollars in loans to finance continuing operations and product development until healthcare, wage and pension concessions they have already negotiated have a real effect on the bottom line. There is no middle ground. Selling or closing Pontiac, GMC, Buick, Saturn, Opel, Saab, and everything except Chevrolet, will have no effect. It will even hasten their demise. These are legacy issues current management has had to face and has mostly done a good job in managing. They could have handled Fiat better, but it would not have helped. They could have managed the brands better, but it would not have helped. They would still be losing billions and at best have another 6-months to a year in the current economic environment. What kind of reorganization do you expect them to implement?

[daves87rs]

Well, I'll remember that when you join everyone else on the unemployment lines.

Agreed.

[smk4565]

I am self employed at 2 jobs and a year away from my MBA; GM going under won't affect me because if the job market is still horrid I can work for myself.

GM may have to abandon most production in North America, they may have to go down to Chevy-Cadillac at 10% market share and dump 50% of their workforce. I don't know what will happen, but it seems like Wagoner and the other officers have no plan and just think the government should cut them a check and they'll do business as usual. I wish Wagoner had a reorganization plan and would take some blame for the mess they are in. He is the CEO and has been for 8 years, in those 8 years they have gone downhill and he's driven them to bankruptcy.

Toyota isn't scared at all, they aren't burning cash and have over $40 billion in reserve. If GM going bankrupt was going to destroy Toyota, Toyota could just buy GM, it would only cost $1.9 billion. GM going bankrupt and some suppliers folding may hurt US Toyota production in the short term, but they can manufacture abroad and import and find new suppliers. With how low demand is now, they'll be able to keep up. By the time the market turns, they'll have new suppliers and will be able to claim huge market share.

[cletus8269]

i'm a radiolgic technologist at a large local hospital. mind you because of the healthcare policy where we treat anyone insurance or not we lost 18 million dollars last year. everyone needs xrays at sometime but that doesnt mean i'll have job. we are experiencing some of the worst cutbacks our hospital has seen in its 100 years since it was founded. there is no job that is 100% guaranteed.

Edited November 11, 2008 by cletus8269

[thegriffon]

I am self employed at 2 jobs and a year away from my MBA; GM going under won't affect me because if the job market is still horrid I can work for myself.

GM may have to abandon most production in North America, they may have to go down to Chevy-Cadillac at 10% market share and dump 50% of their workforce. I don't know what will happen, but it seems like Wagoner and the other officers have no plan and just think the government should cut them a check and they'll do business as usual. I wish Wagoner had a reorganization plan and would take some blame for the mess they are in. He is the CEO and has been for 8 years, in those 8 years they have gone downhill and he's driven them to bankruptcy.

Toyota isn't scared at all, they aren't burning cash and have over $40 billion in reserve. If GM going bankrupt was going to destroy Toyota, Toyota could just buy GM, it would only cost $1.9 billion. GM going bankrupt and some suppliers folding may hurt US Toyota production in the short term, but they can manufacture abroad and import and find new suppliers. With how low demand is now, they'll be able to keep up. By the time the market turns, they'll have new suppliers and will be able to claim huge market share.

You still need work to pay yourself. What makes you think there will be any business for you to do in 6 months time? Most contractors are self-employed, what are they all doing now? Where are all the MBAs that used to work on Wall Street 3 months ago?

Toyota is scared. They aren't in any danger of going out of business, but their biggest market is collapsing, their profits are collapsing, and that all has an effect on their ability to fund future product programs. If they keep losing nearly $1billion a quarter in the US their $5billion dollar profit won't survive long. It could crash to a $1billion next year if things stay as they are. If GM, Ford and Chrysler fail, that remaining billion could go up in smoke for a very long time to come. They are in a strong position, but they have every reason to be worried, and their $40billion cash hoard would last about a year if they had to support GM, and would take another decade to restore.

GM collapsing would not hurt Toyota in the short term, it would hurt Toyota for decades. Millions of people will lose their jobs. Millions more would lose their pensions and healthcare. It will be a black hole in the US economy sucking more and more jobs into it. With the resulting collapse in the US economy, the income of billions of more people around the world will be severely impacted, crippling Toyota's other markets, markets in which it is already by far the largest automaker. Toyota is not in a good position to meet the demands of a new, poorer global economy. Sales, profits and leadership will increasingly pass to companies such as Renault, Tata, Volkswagen, and even Suzuki.

[smk4565]

Toyota will be fine, they have made a $7.2 billion profit the first 9 months of 2008. So on a horrible year they'll make $8-9 billion. If the Detroit 3 go out of business, that leaves about 45% market share that is open to others to get. It will be bad if GM goes under, but only about 1-2% of the workforce is employed by the auto industry, the country would recover.

[cletus8269]

say it with me... "domino effect". GM goes and takes jobs with it. Parts suppliers go, take jobs with them. companys that produces parts for suppliers go, take jobs with them. you reading this or you just see words? toyota cannot CANNOT float this country. in my mind they would say screw it pull up shop and go elsewhere where they could be profitable. this isnt just about GM there is a much much bigger picture tied in. because of all the satellite business that come together to keep GM floating is why they stay alive. i am more than sure that all the jobs related to GM inside or outside are more than 1-2% of the nations workforce.

Edited November 11, 2008 by cletus8269

[CARBIZ]

If this mess does not heal itself within the next 2 or 3 months, then I am voting for a total CRASH. Even though my job would be on the line, I would rather see a total, complete melt down in North America to re-set the clock, rather than the Big 3 fall into the hands of foreign companies and compromise North America's ability to build or create anything.

The reason Toyota should be scared, as should China, is that their greed and quest for total global domination may have killed the golden goose. No goose, no eggs - very simple economics.

The fact that much of the greed originated on these shores (how else can someone like Buffet make $600 million on shorting currencies in '07?) is the reason why it may be necessary for a total meltdown.

Judging by much of the selfishness and self-centeredness I see on this board (and others), I am rapidly losing any hope that, as a Society, we are going to be able to work this out in a constructive, expeditious manner. There are too many axes to grind, too many agendas at work.

[smk4565]

The American workforce is 155 million people with 6.5% unemployed at the moment, thus 145 million employed. (department of labor statistics) GM has 250,000 or so employees worldwide, even with dealers and their suppliers that is a million or so employees. The Detroit 3, all their suppliers and dealers are about 3 million workers. 3 million is a lot of people, but it is only 1.9% of the workforce.

I believe that GM needs a bailout to survive, but I don't think Congress should or will give them one unless GM has some sort of recovery plan in place. GM has yet to present a restructuring plan.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

The American workforce is 155 million people with 6.5% unemployed at the moment, thus 145 million employed. (department of labor statistics)

Not necessarily.

The unemployment rate only identifies people who are ACTIVELY SEKING JOBS. People who give up on looking or stop being very active in looking are not accounted for. Normally, that wouldn't be a big deal, but since the economic crisis has been going on for quite a while now (The recession started WAY before the fuel crisis, by all intents and purposes) I'd be willing to bet that 6.5% is off quite a bit.

GM has 250,000 or so employees worldwide, even with dealers and their suppliers that is a million or so employees. The Detroit 3, all their suppliers and dealers are about 3 million workers. 3 million is a lot of people, but it is only 1.9% of the workforce.

That doesn't factor in all of the R&D jobs that would be affected. I'd say 4-5 million directly affected with peripherals that affect pretty much everyone.

I'd love to see a meltdown, personally. It would push GM's debt onto the taxpayer and probably make some of these people who wished ill will on the industry pretty sorry. And on top of it all, I'll still be driving nice, new american cars. What more could a GM fan want? Toyota buyers to finance his next purchase.

I believe that GM needs a bailout to survive, but I don't think Congress should or will give them one unless GM has some sort of recovery plan in place. GM has yet to present a restructuring plan.

They've been restructuring since 2005.

[haypops]

I believe that GM needs a bailout to survive, but I don't think Congress should or will give them one unless GM has some sort of recovery plan in place. GM has yet to present a restructuring plan.

Unlike the FDR-Hoover model, Obama apparently did ask Bush to intervene on one key economic decision: the auto industry. Bush wanted something in return: the Colombia free trade deal. "Bush indicated at the meeting that he might support some aid and a broader economic stimulus package if Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats dropped their opposition to a free-trade agreement with Colombia, a measure for which Mr. Bush has long fought, people familiar with the discussion said. The Bush administration, which has presided over a major intervention in the financial industry, has balked at allowing the automakers to tap into the $700 billion bailout fund, despite warnings last week that General Motors might not survive the year.

Mr. Obama and Congressional Democratic leaders say the bailout law authorizes the administration to extend assistance." http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/us/polit...amp;oref=slogin

Apparently "Washington" doesn't agree with you on GM needing a recovery plan to get the money. Perhaps they feel that since GM outsells Toyota in China, the Mideast, Europe, etc their plan is good enough.

Edited November 11, 2008 by haypops

[smk4565]

Apparently "Washington" doesn't agree with you on GM needing a recovery plan to get the money. Perhaps they feel that since GM outsells Toyota in China, the Mideast, Europe, etc their plan is good enough.

Worldwide, Toyota beats GM in sales volume, but sales volume is irrelevant. PROFIT is all that matters in this case. Toyota makes profit, GM, Ford and Chrysler do not. If they give GM $20 billion in cash, this time next year GM will be bankrupt again and looking for more money. If they don't stop burning $2 billion a month in cash, a bailout doesn't do anything but buy them a few more months.

The best thing for GM is chapter 11 bankruptcy with government aid to get them through it. It is their only path to survival, and the GM that comes out of the restructuring would have to look very different from the GM of today.

[regfootball]

say it with me... "domino effect". GM goes and takes jobs with it. Parts suppliers go, take jobs with them. companys that produces parts for suppliers go, take jobs with them. you reading this or you just see words? toyota cannot CANNOT float this country. in my mind they would say screw it pull up shop and go elsewhere where they could be profitable. this isnt just about GM there is a much much bigger picture tied in. because of all the satellite business that come together to keep GM floating is why they stay alive. i am more than sure that all the jobs related to GM inside or outside are more than 1-2% of the nations workforce.

toyota has no allegiance to the USA. they simply want to vaccum the profit out of it, and send it back to 'yen check cashing inc'.

[regfootball]

Not necessarily.

The unemployment rate only identifies people who are ACTIVELY SEKING JOBS. People who give up on looking or stop being very active in looking are not accounted for. Normally, that wouldn't be a big deal, but since the economic crisis has been going on for quite a while now (The recession started WAY before the fuel crisis, by all intents and purposes) I'd be willing to bet that 6.5% is off quite a bit.

That doesn't factor in all of the R&D jobs that would be affected. I'd say 4-5 million directly affected with peripherals that affect pretty much everyone.

I'd love to see a meltdown, personally. It would push GM's debt onto the taxpayer and probably make some of these people who wished ill will on the industry pretty sorry. And on top of it all, I'll still be driving nice, new american cars. What more could a GM fan want? Toyota buyers to finance his next purchase.

They've been restructuring since 2005.

my exact point. GM can get a loan now, or the government pays big time for unemployment checks and lost tax revenue in the next few years. which costs more?

[regfootball]

Worldwide, Toyota beats GM in sales volume, but sales volume is irrelevant. PROFIT is all that matters in this case. Toyota makes profit, GM, Ford and Chrysler do not. If they give GM $20 billion in cash, this time next year GM will be bankrupt again and looking for more money. If they don't stop burning $2 billion a month in cash, a bailout doesn't do anything but buy them a few more months.

The best thing for GM is chapter 11 bankruptcy with government aid to get them through it. It is their only path to survival, and the GM that comes out of the restructuring would have to look very different from the GM of today.

government aid to terminate union contracts and pensions? oh, that'd be popular.

joe sixpack can then sue the government in eliminating his job.

[CARBIZ]

Worldwide, Toyota beats GM in sales volume, but sales volume is irrelevant. PROFIT is all that matters in this case. Toyota makes profit, GM, Ford and Chrysler do not. If they give GM $20 billion in cash, this time next year GM will be bankrupt again and looking for more money. If they don't stop burning $2 billion a month in cash, a bailout doesn't do anything but buy them a few more months.

The best thing for GM is chapter 11 bankruptcy with government aid to get them through it. It is their only path to survival, and the GM that comes out of the restructuring would have to look very different from the GM of today.

But GM is making money everywhere EXCEPT North America. In fact, even Toyota is losing money in North America. Interesting, no? The 'biggest', 'proudest' automotive market in the world is now a black pit, sucking in all those who dared enter.

If Toyota is losing money here, after decades of expanding, it's no wonder that GM is in such trouble after decades of contracting here.

Regardless of whether Washington/Ottawa decide to do something or not, and regardless of whether GM decides to go Chapter 11, something had better happen soon because the bad news cancer is already spreading and customers are going to stay away in droves.

The timing couldn't be worse: if Obama can't do anything until mid-January and Bush won't do anything - well, generations from now, GM's implosion could be in economics text books under THE example of perfect storm.

[thegriffon]

Don't forget, congress doesn't want to do anything either. If the Administration says they aren't authorized to spend he financial bailout money on the big three, that is easily fixed—enact more legislation, better targeted at the auto industry. Wagoner at least is offering the kind of deal that the democrats did not ask of the finance executives—salary caps, equity, and an R&D strategy they can sell as aiding climate change and fuel economy. It seems clear that not enough democrats want to do anything either. Dingall and Obama and his economic advisors can beg all they want. I think you are looking at an apocalyptic economic landscape. The US in two years time will look like Haiti. Russia will be looking good. If you're a resident alien, quit your job, take all your money, and go home now. You'll be better off.

[CARBIZ]

Also, the market has been fragmenting too much in the past few years: too many brands, too many models from everyone.

It's not unlike the mid-50s when an economic downturn and a price war between GM and Ford shook out the likes of Nash, Packard, Studebaker and others: the market then was too crowded for the 7 or 8 million vehicles being sold.

I mean, why does Japan have 5 or 7 major car manufacturers when they sell about as many as Canada in their own country?

[buyacargetacheck]

Japan up until last year was the world's 2nd largest car market. That's partly why. The root reason is that when we rebuilt Japan after WWII we helped them design a purposely-built export-driven economy in exchange for allowing an expanded and strategic military presence there. Oh, and the Japanese are very good at building cars. That's why they have so many car manufacturers.

BTW, the Japanese car market dwarfs Canada's. About 6M sold versus 1.5M.

I mean, why does Japan have 5 or 7 major car manufacturers when they sell about as many as Canada in their own country?

[buyacargetacheck]

And GM, Ford and Chrysler are patriotic? Bwahahaha!!!

toyota has no allegiance to the USA. they simply want to vaccum the profit out of it, and send it back to 'yen check cashing inc'.

[thegriffon]

AN is reporting now that Bush did not demand the Colombian free trade deal in exchange for a Detroit aid package:

"John Podesta, co-chairman of President-elect Barack Obama's transition team, today disputed reports that President Bush is tying stimulus legislation to congressional approval of a free trade agreement with Colombia. Democratic leaders oppose the trade deal.

Obama and Bush merely exchanged views on the two issues during a meeting at the White House Monday, Podesta said at a briefing."

[carman21]

Sounds like it will be a government assisted bankruptcy for GM, Ford, and Chrysler.

I hope we can either drop the UAW or expand the UAW into foreign-owned plants (the key is to trap the foreign automakers into manufacturing in the US).

[thegriffon]

Toyota will be fine, they have made a $7.2 billion profit the first 9 months of 2008. So on a horrible year they'll make $8-9 billion. If the Detroit 3 go out of business, that leaves about 45% market share that is open to others to get. It will be bad if GM goes under, but only about 1-2% of the workforce is employed by the auto industry, the country would recover.

Ya thunk?

Report: Toyota likely to report rare operating loss

December 18, 2008 - 3:30 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp. is likely to report its first operating loss in half a century in the current year ending March 31 as a result of plunging sales and the strength of the yen, the Nikkei financial daily reported.

Toyota has said it will announce revised 2009 sales forecasts at its year-end news conference on Dec. 22.

Toyota cut its operating profit forecast by more than half last month and said it would do everything it could to meet the new forecast of 600 billion yen ($6.6 billion) for the year -- down 1 trillion yen from initial forecasts.

Options include halving the number of temporary workers in Japan, delaying new factory launches and cutting research and development costs, the company said.

But including loss reserves for its auto-financing business, the nearly 600 billion yen in profits that Toyota earned in the April-September half-year are now unlikely to be enough to keep it in the black for the year, the Nikkei said.

Even if the company met its forecast, profit would be down 74 percent from a year earlier. …

[CARBIZ]

Ya thunk?

Report: Toyota likely to report rare operating loss

December 18, 2008 - 3:30 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Toyota Motor Corp. is likely to report its first operating loss in half a century in the current year ending March 31 as a result of plunging sales and the strength of the yen, the Nikkei financial daily reported.

Toyota has said it will announce revised 2009 sales forecasts at its year-end news conference on Dec. 22.

Toyota cut its operating profit forecast by more than half last month and said it would do everything it could to meet the new forecast of 600 billion yen ($6.6 billion) for the year -- down 1 trillion yen from initial forecasts.

Options include halving the number of temporary workers in Japan, delaying new factory launches and cutting research and development costs, the company said.

But including loss reserves for its auto-financing business, the nearly 600 billion yen in profits that Toyota earned in the April-September half-year are now unlikely to be enough to keep it in the black for the year, the Nikkei said.

Even if the company met its forecast, profit would be down 74 percent from a year earlier. …

STOP! You're making me cry.

[Robert Hall]

You still need work to pay yourself. What makes you think there will be any business for you to do in 6 months time? Most contractors are self-employed, what are they all doing now? Where are all the MBAs that used to work on Wall Street 3 months ago?

As a self-employed contractor myself, the software engineering contractor market is much better now than it was when the bubble burst (mid 2000-mid 2002), and after 9/11. I'm still getting 2-3 emails and calls from head hunters every week, and still see a lot of job postings on Dice, Monster, etc...there have been some layoffs, but in general, the demand is still there. We will see what it's like in 6 months, but I don't see it dying off completely...existing and new companies always need software designed and implemented.

[Z-06]

STOP! You're making me cry.

Carbiz, did you have a Brazillian sausage for breakfast this morning? You are feeling peppy!

Motar so true. There is demand, but the people - corporations included are just not ready to commit. There are $57 B of infrastructure projects which are already designed however, people are not ready to step up. Partly because of no money and mostly because of confidence.