Volt will likely never be as cost effective as today's hybrids.

[GXT]

GM and Honda presented before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

Honda's presentation had some interesting items (http://energy.senate.gov/public/_files/germantestimony.doc), but buried deep inside are some stats from The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) on plug-in hybrids. According to a report from Sept 2006, a plug-in hybrid with a 40 mile range would require a $17,500 battery. As the Volt can go 64 miles, that would equate to roughly a $28,000 battery (a hybrid, by comparison, currently has a $2,000 battery)

Currently, according to the ACEEE and Honda, the payback for the hybrid portion of a hybrid is 7.3 years. The current payback for the plug-in hybrid portion of a car like the Volt would be roughly 42 years. (Assumptions: 12,000 miles/year, conventional vehicle fuel economy 30MPG, hybrid fuel economy of 50MPG, 50% of plug-in miles on electricity, $3.00/gallon gas, 4.0 miles/kWh, $0.09/kWh, no fuel economy penalty for the additional weight of the plug-in batteries, no battery replacement)

If they manage to cut the cost of the battery by 1/5, then the payback for a Volt would be ~9.4 years (and a hybrid would then be 2.9 years).

Even if the driver could stay under the 64 miles per day and use $0 in gas, the payback for the Volt would be ~32 years at today's battery costs, or ~7 years if the cost of the batteries was cut by 1/5.

The other item that was pointed out was that plug-in hybrid batteries will likely wear out more quickly than hybrid batteries as they are under less advantageous load conditions. If a hybrid battery only lasts ~7(?) years, then a plug-in hybrid battery would last perhaps 5(?) years. In other words, expect a $20,000+(?) maintenance stop after 5 years (which, of course, would be long before the break even point of the original battery, putting you that much father in the negative).

So, even if one were to travel only on electricity, and the cost of batteries were to be cut by 1/5, and they were able to extend battery life significantly, only then would you have a vehicle that is as cost effective as today's much-maligned hybrids.

Edited February 13, 2007 by GXT

[Camino LS6]

This is the news section, not Op-Ed.

I take it you think Honda's word is gospel.

I don't, especially when they are tooting their own horn in front of a government commitee.

[AxelTheRed]

Uh, GXT...you do know that the Volt is still in the developmental stages, right?

[Northstar]

Oh, this is such a great source of info! I'm sure Honda knows everything about a GM vehicle that could possibly be produced, and has already done studies for GM about how much the vehicle would cost to develop!

[GXT]

This is the news section, not Op-Ed.

As GM implied and as I suggested in an earlier post, the idea of a plug-in hybrid isn't new or novel, just unfeasible. GM was being disingenuous when they presented the Volt concept. They have been bad-mouthing and passing over hybrids on economic reasons only to present a concept of a less economically viable option.

I would agree that this isn't news. However I took quite a beating in the other thread for not running out and putting a deposit down. Therefore for some it will be news.

I take it you think Honda's word is gospel.

I value reason.

Here is the ACEEE website:

http://www.aceee.org/

You already have the link to the Honda presentation. The calculations are reasonably trivial. Feel free to show how the numbers are wrong. (I would suggest using GM's numbers, but they haven't provided any. In fact, all they have done is confirm that it isn't possible. Now we have numbers that show just how impossible it is.)

I don't, especially when they are tooting their own horn in front of a government committee.

Honda and the ACEEE have no reason to lie about this. They are both promoting alternative to gas-only vehicles. Plus it isn't like GM has any sort of insight or technological advantage in this area. If anything, Toyota and Honda would be better equipped to build such a vehicle. If it were feasible, everyone (especially Honda and Toyota) would just build and sell them.

I liked the idea, and I am a little disappointed at just how unfeasible it is.

[GXT]

Uh, GXT...you do know that the Volt is still in the developmental stages, right?

Yes.

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index...showtopic=14931

[haypops]

To me the excitement was not the plug in capability specificaly, but rather the ability to put any number of energy devices down stream from the elctric propulsion motors. Regarding the question of GM vs. Toyota or Honda being in the lead, how many years ago did the EV1 exist?

Edited February 14, 2007 by haypops

[Drew Dowdell]

Range of 75-150 miles... what?

"cost of the battery pack to GM was still in the $2-3,000 dollar region during the production phase of the EV1 program. Including delivery and installation, GM thought it unlikely an EV1 could be repowered for less than $6-7000 per unit)" from wikipedia....

[the_yellow_dart]

Range of 75-150 miles... what?

"cost of the battery pack to GM was still in the $2-3,000 dollar region during the production phase of the EV1 program. Including delivery and installation, GM thought it unlikely an EV1 could be repowered for less than $6-7000 per unit)" from wikipedia....

Good point. How did Honda skip over the EV1?

[aaaantoine]

Range of 75-150 miles... what?

"cost of the battery pack to GM was still in the $2-3,000 dollar region during the production phase of the EV1 program. Including delivery and installation, GM thought it unlikely an EV1 could be repowered for less than $6-7000 per unit)" from wikipedia....

Those numbers are written in the Wiki article without citation.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

Looks like the parade of domestic haters is here...

Bloomberg had an article similar to this as well.

Import fans just can't stand the fact that GM has outclasses their companies in the ONE area that their companies excelled.

Oh well. :shrugs:

[sciguy_0504]

Looks like the parade of domestic haters is here...

Bloomberg had an article similar to this as well.

Import fans just can't stand the fact that GM has outclasses their companies in the ONE area that their companies excelled.

Oh well. :shrugs:

Considering the fact that GM is seemingly years away from producing the Volt, if ever, the word "outclassed" is laughable. Has anyone even driven the Volt? Can it be driven? I haven't paid much attention to it other than the initial showing.

Like GXT said, if plug-in hybrids were worth it other companies, especially Toyota and Honda, would be all over it.

[Z-06]

If they manage to cut the cost of the battery by 1/5, then the payback for a Volt would be ~9.4 years (and a hybrid would then be 2.9 years).

Both technologies are different animals, how can you directly relate both cost cuts and compare them? Hybrid battery is far more in the developmental stage compared to the plug in hybrid.

The other item that was pointed out was that plug-in hybrid batteries will likely wear out more quickly than hybrid batteries as they are under less advantageous load conditions.

Show me the money!!

So, even if one were to travel only on electricity, and the cost of batteries were to be cut by 1/5, and they were able to extend battery life significantly, only then would you have a vehicle that is as cost effective as today's much-maligned hybrids.

True. Is it not like trying to blame a new born that he will end up being a gangster so let us kill him now?

As GM implied and as I suggested in an earlier post, the idea of a plug-in hybrid isn't new or novel, just unfeasible. GM was being disingenuous when they presented the Volt concept. They have been bad-mouthing and passing over hybrids on economic reasons only to present a concept of a less economically viable option.

Uhh! based on your theory isn't Horn-dawg bad mouthing plug-ins too?

I liked the idea, and I am a little disappointed at just how unfeasible it is.

Son, it has been one month since the Detroit Auto Show is done. Give the technologists and the automakers some time

Like GXT said, if plug-in hybrids were worth it other companies, especially Toyota and Honda, would be all over it.

Just like how GM missed the boat for hybrids, the Japs missed the boats for plug-ins. Oh! yes they will be in the race trust me. But they are taking a two prong approach.

1. Beat its competitor for taking the lead. (Red Ocean Strategy)

2. Make covert developments of the technology. (Entrepreneurial Judo Strategy)

[toyoguy]

Considering the fact that GM is seemingly years away from producing the Volt, if ever, the word "outclassed" is laughable. Has anyone even driven the Volt? Can it be driven? I haven't paid much attention to it other than the initial showing.

Like GXT said, if plug-in hybrids were worth it other companies, especially Toyota and Honda, would be all over it.

they would be if lithium-ion battery technology were available now. I imagine that is a major reason Toyota is preparing to takeover Fuji Heavy.

[Cadillacfan]

Looks like the haters are already trying to downplay the vehicle even before it's produced. Typical.

[GXT]

Looks like the haters are already trying to downplay the vehicle even before it's produced. Typical.

I heard an interesting story about the Heaven's Gate cult. They bought a $4,000 telescope to try to view the alien spaceship that they were expecting to see in the tail of the Hale-Bop comet. When they didn't see the spaceship, they assumed the telescope was broken and returned it.

Take a look at their plans for the plug-in View:

http://www.cheersandgears.com/forums/index...showtopic=13786

Even in the very PR piece in which GM is trumpeting the plug-in hybrid, they have no idea when they will be able to create one with even 15% of the range of the Volt. They laid out their plans until 2009 and there is no plug-in hybrid shown.

And if you read the piece closely, you can see that GM is stuck with their poor-performing hybrid sedans until 2008. Take, for example, the Aura, which GM won't even announce the specific fuel economy of (probably because the vague percentage improvements that GM has indicated put the hybrid 4cyl Aura in the same fuel economy league as a non-hybrid 4cyl Accord). Let's be clear, even in the highly inflated fuel economy numbers of hybrids, GM can't break the 27MPG city mark (Hybrid Vue, and based on GM's numbers the Aura will not even make that). Even Ford managed 32 (Hybrid Escape).

GM is failing dismally, and in return they distract you with promises of future cars that they know full well they cannot build. And you assume that even if they could be built, GM would do so better than the other auto-makers? What possible reason would there be to believe that?

You can blame the "haters" all you want, but I'm letting you know that there really is no spaceship in the tail of that comet.

Edited February 19, 2007 by GXT

[aldw]

The logic of the haters is to give up since everything GM does is hopeless, well the only ones to gain from such stupidity is the import competition and the numbnuts who get off of their pronouncements. As long as GM still has anything at all materially or financially left in it then it should fight tooth and nail to build the best damn product possible and nothing less and treat the naysayers like the trash they are (and this is from someone who drives a Toyota).

Edited February 20, 2007 by aldw

[Intrepidation]

Here you go again, taking shots at the Volt. You just don't give up do you? If Honda or Toyota made this concept you'd be praising them all over the boards and defending it too and nail. The Volt was show a month ago, how do you think you can downplay it just recently bowed. Plus, it's the Volts flexibility combined with i's looks that make it sos pecial.

[CaddyXLR-V]

After reading through the document, which we need to consider who is being written for, the government, you will see why the most pessimistic numbers were used.

"The government may also wish to explore ways to incentivize the full useful life savings to manufacturers or customers."

"As Honda has previously announced, we believe it is time for the Federal government to take action to improve vehicle economy. Given the rapid changes in technology, performance-based incentives are the best way to move the ball forward."

[vrazzhledazzle]

Um.. the Volt doesn't technically have a battery yet. It hasn't been developed yet according to an article I read. They have a plan for it and specific goals for the battery according to an article I read...and a proper battery should be developed by 2010 (production date).

Basically, a production battery isn't ready yet.

[RBB]

Um.. the Volt doesn't technically have a battery yet. It hasn't been developed yet according to an article I read. They have a plan for it and specific goals for the battery according to an article I read...and a proper battery should be developed by 2010 (production date).

Basically, a production battery isn't ready yet.

It's too bad technology isn't moving forward making batteries cheaper and smaller and we can't expect any further reduction in cost when these are produced en masse.

[EDIT]vrazzhledazzle, I'm agreeing with you and disagreeing with the thread's author, in case I wasn't clear.[/EDIT]

Yes, GM is making some assumptions about battery technology, but there's reason to believe their assumptions are not too far off from where battery technology will be in a few years.

-RBB

Edited March 5, 2007 by RBB

[vrazzhledazzle]

It's too bad technology isn't moving forward making batteries cheaper and smaller and we can't expect any further reduction in cost when these are produced en masse.

[EDIT]vrazzhledazzle, I'm agreeing with you and disagreeing with the thread's author, in case I wasn't clear.[/EDIT]

Yes, GM is making some assumptions about battery technology, but there's reason to believe their assumptions are not too far off from where battery technology will be in a few years.

-RBB

Agreed, GM is making assumptions about the battery, but those assumption will be met or nearly met before GM builds the volt. The assumptions that the thread starter is making are on the other hand misleading since you can't know the facts about a car and a battery when neither actually exists yet. The only thing you can know is current hybrid batteries that cost $2000 but dont worry about those...Honda and Toyota easily overcome that cost thanks to weak Yen and no healthcare liabilities

[thegriffon]

Considering the fact that GM is seemingly years away from producing the Volt, if ever, the word "outclassed" is laughable. Has anyone even driven the Volt? Can it be driven? I haven't paid much attention to it other than the initial showing.

Like GXT said, if plug-in hybrids were worth it other companies, especially Toyota and Honda, would be all over it.

It can be driven, there is a running video of the Volt quietly driving aroud a suburban street. GM has set battery copanies a target of meeting the battery specs within 12 months—if they can do that a rollout in line with the new-generation compact platform around 2009 is certainly possible. Significant but overlooked since details were sparse, but the Volt's 1.0 L 3-cyl turbo should see wider application in the near future.

[Camino LS6]

The Volt is a major step forward and GM should be applauded for driving the technology toward production. The import-humping apologists have gotten it wrong on this one, very wrong.

Much to my delight.

[zhawk]

Even if we don't see the Volt right away, you can be sure that some of the technologies will be incorporate into other vehicles.

Still, I wouldn't be surprised if GM have a section working with a timeline to make the battery available.

Don't forget, there is already one (though massively expensive) car out there running on Lithium Ion batteries.

[Ravenfreak13]

Why can't GM just update the original EV1 system?

[Intrepidation]

Why can't GM just update the original EV1 system?

That would be an interesting idea. I wonder if they were to update it...would/should it be kept all electric or be incorporated into a type of hybrid system?

On a side note: I find it funny that GXT has yet to post a snide remark in this thread.

[FAPTurbo]

Were Hybrids ever supposed to be 'cost-effective' anyway? If you want 'cost-effectiveness' and savings from less fuel, buy a Volkswagen diesel, or ride a bike.

[Intrepidation]

Or a motorcycle...you pay 3 grand or so for a cheap one and it gets like 75 mpg.

[Z-06]

Or a motorcycle...you pay 3 grand or so for a cheap one and it gets like 75 mpg.

Woud you mind travelling like this?

[Intrepidation]

If you're commuting to work or school, and unless you're carpooling...I don't think it's an issue. Plus, that's why you own a car for hauling people around.

[deftonesfan867]

Grow up - you sound like an ignorant hick.

Come on Camino - ban me for pointing out a really stupid statement.

BTW - What import car you driving now? The Canadian imported F body or that OZ built GTO.

You're telling him to grow up, but look at your response.

[Camino LS6]

Grow up - you sound like an ignorant hick.

Come on Camino - ban me for pointing out a really stupid statement.

BTW - What import car you driving now? The Canadian imported F body or that OZ built GTO.

Excuse me, oh rude one.

But my opinion will continue to be expressed as I choose.

Nothing in my post can be construed as that of an "ignorant hick" you just can't stand to have your doomsday spoiled.

As to what I drove today, it was my Silverado. You know, the one built in Michigan.

Every new car I have ever purchased has been GM, so stifle yourself on that front - you know better.

[z28luvr01]

The truth is fine, but calling out and taunting someone is not. You know that.

Put your fangs away.

[Camino LS6]

Go hump your GM imports.

If you do not like the truth, ban me.

I got your shorts ruffled in an earlier Volt discussion because you did not carefully read a GM PR.

Sorry but get over it.

The Prius is a success and soon to be on its third generation and yet still GM does not have anything to directly counter it.

And it is all because of the media and import humpers.

Yea right!

None of which has anything to do with the topic at hand.

The Prius had no bearing on my comments whatsoever. That car is yesterday's news and has nothing to do with the value of the Volt Concept or the fact that GM is pushing this technology forward with production intent. I am simply applauding GM's work in this area and determination to make it happen. What does that have to do with the prius?

I'm positive and you are negative it's really as simple as that.

Incidentally, I find it odd that you feel the need to attack me on this when I never mentioned you in my posts. I really don't care what you think on most topics nor do I care about the Prius.

I only care about what GM is doing on this and I'm pleased so far. The naysayers have tried to doom this car from the start, but GM isn't listening to them and is moving ahead with the Volt.

That's enough to please me quite a bit right now.

[Flybrian]

Sprited debate and disagreement is one thing. Attacks like these are another.

Grow up - you sound like an ignorant hick.

We should all be able to engage in a discussion and disagree without having to resort to attacking others on a personal level.

Though I did originally lock this thread, I'm reopening it in the hopes that civil conduct can guide this discussion back on course.

Let's remember that we only deserve the respect we give others.

Thank you.

[Camino LS6]

I was also glad to hear that GM intends to keep us all updated on the progress as the Volt moves toward production. Smart move, I think. I know I will enjoy hearing about both progress and process.

[Flybrian]

I fail to see the logic in characterizing over 50% of the public as import humpers. It was and continues to be a very ignorant statment from a moderator. I know plenty of people that own imports and I am sure they would agree. :AH-HA_wink:

Really? Seen this site?

CarLoving

Puts a whole new spin on 'import humper.'

In any case, let's just keep this discussion on-topic and interesting for all who participate.

[Camino LS6]

So, the Volt.

The existence of this car makes me wonder why all previous attempts at this sort of vehicle were so ugly. Obviously they don't have to be, the Volt proves that. But what could have motivated those earlier designers to carefully avoid anything resembling a pleasing style.

After all, looks sell cars even if they are technological wonders.

[Flybrian]

That is not negative when the big three have missed the crossover market craze, hybrid hype, offer competitive small and mid sized cars and relied soly on the mid and full sized trucks to carry them until the market crashed as fuel prices soared.

Obviousness belies Ford and DCX, but I think GM arguably caught on fairly well with the VUE, SRX, Rendezvous, and even the spirit Aztek. The executions of the SRX's interior and the Aztek as a whole can be debated, but I believe GM actually got their foot in the door as opposed to shooting themselves in the foot with this segement.

[VenSeattle]

The Prius is a success and soon to be on its third generation and yet still GM does not have anything to directly counter it.

Most manufacturers don't, so why single GM out? Anyway, GM is further involved in the Hybrid market than most other manufacturers (except Honda.)

Go pick on DCX, Subaru, Suzuki, Mitsubishi, Nissan (yeah, they're just now entering this market... but they're still LATE), BMW, etc...

I think you're also overlooking that Honda has so far been unsuccessful competing against Toyota with Hybrids as well (Accord & Civic hybrids). So what's your point???

[pow]

Isn't the next Prius going to be li-ion, plug-in, albeit a parallel hybrid?

How efficient are electric motors on the highway compared to ICEs?

[haypops]

I made a New Year's resolution to be nicer this year. However, I do understand how maddening some expressions of chauvinism, whether domestic or Asian, can be. So all that I am going to include are some unrelated comments.

• The volt is brilliant because it allows GM to be ready no matter whether hydrogen(unlikely), batteries(unlikely), kinetic/pneumatic hybrid(maybe), Diesel(maybe), or the dieselfication of a gasoline fueled internal combustion engine (maybe) succeed. Don't even consider ethanol.
• The volt is not brilliant because it looks so sweet. Its no more desirable than the Dodge Caliber and considering the number of years that have passed; less impressive than the EV1 (opinion).
• My neighborhood Cadillac/Toyota dealer has 50 Prius vehicles in stock.

[toyoguy]

Isn't the next Prius going to be li-ion, plug-in, albeit a parallel hybrid?

How efficient are electric motors on the highway compared to ICEs?

Toyota president send the next Prius will have lithium batteries. I dunno if he meant lithium-ion or just plain lithium, from current NiMH battery.

Toyota is keeping a tight lip on the next Prius, as they want to keep competitors as much in the dark as possible.

If I'm not mistakend electric motors offer near 100% efficiency.

[VenSeattle]

True - But you forget that GM has been and continues to be the worlds largest auto manufacturer. They decided to make hybrid buses instead of a product that appeals to the greater public in their core business. The lack of hybrids at GM up until recently and the Toyota focus in the late 1990 on the purpose built Prius is only one example out of many that I could use to illustrate why Toyota may be the worlds largest and most profitable auto company by the close of this year. Also all the companies you have mentioned above I believe have been consistently profitable also with the exception of Mitsubishi.

That is the point. And what exactly is yours since I never indicated that GMs most pressing issue is the lack of hybrids. It is only one of many and explains why Toyota grows from within and why GM buys other companys to hold onto what they had.

Once again... your point was: "The Prius is a success and soon to be on its third generation and yet still GM does not have anything to directly counter it."

The Accord Hybrid isn't really a Prius competitor... and all those other profitable manufacturers don't have any type of competitor either. So how is GM so clueless while other profitable manufacturers out there don't have a direct competitor to the Prius either?

My points...

1) You penalize GM because its the largest manufacturer, yet you ignore the profitable manufacturers who have little to no excuse to not having a competitor.

2) We're talking about reading the market and producing what people want, yet you simultaneously dismiss GM for being the largest manufacturer in the world. Even if GM is #2, they're still doing something right.

3) You've harped for years that GM depends too much on fleet sales. Now that GM's retail sales are increasing in certain markets while they reduce Fleet sales dramatically, you Harp on market share and gross sales. Make up your mind. If profitability is really your focus (I doubt it), you should be happy. But no, you use it to spin a negative perspective.

3) Honda, with all of its money, should have been able to successfully develop and launch a line-up of hybrids. That didn't happen.

4) Why are you incessantly replying to this topic attempting to make GM look as bad as possible (over a concept no less), yet your voice falls silent in topics like this. Toyota's third attempt at something and it's not going as planned? Golden child doesn't get everything right, no matter how much of their profits they throw at it - New plant - Huge marketing campaign - now discounts. Where's your analysis? Why is it absent? or is that not news to you? Is it possible with articles like this (being discussed here) floating around, you choose to ignore it?

[Camino LS6]

I thought this thread was supposed to be about the Volt, not a pointless re-hash of GM's sins of the past.

As a concept, the Volt is a homerun. It turned the automotive press on its ear and even grabbed the attention of the mainstream media. While doing so it even got the attention of hard-core enthusiasts who would normally scoff at cars of this sort. I know, because I'm one of them.

The real story now is how well, and how soon GM can bring this concept to production. What they are doing with the Volt is yet another example of this GM not being the one-trick-pony it has been accused of being in the past. The pendulum is finally swinging in the right direction now that GM is rolling out a continuous parade of well-received new models. The momentum is building and the Volt is part of that. When Lutz took over he said they would be building "Gotta Have" product, and they certainly are. Witness Solstice,Sky, Aura,Malibu, the entirety of GMT900,Camaro,G8, and now the Volt. That's one hell of a recovery in a very short time and I, for one , am going to be happy about it.

[AAS]

...

If I'm not mistakend electric motors offer near 100% efficiency.

I can't find anything that says so, but I don't think your comment holds for ALL RPM's.

I'm pretty sure motors are good for low~mid range RPM's, and engines are god for mid-high RPM's. Which is why the Prius starts with a motor, then switches to the engine at higher speeds.

[AAS]

Electric motors have constant torque independent of RPM.

True (edit: maybe not true), but what about efficiency? I think there is a drawback of operating them, vs. an engine, at high RPM's.

Edited March 11, 2007 by AAS

[AAS]

No luck finding what I'm looking for...

[Intrepidation]

I don't know all the details about electric motors but I know they can put out insane amounts of torque. I believe there was an episode of Monster Garage where they converted an old mail truck into a high-powered electric dragster. The torch was so much it destroyed the drive chain.

Edited March 11, 2007 by Dodgefan