Lack of '05 inventory expected to take toll on

[Northstar]

Lack of '05 inventory expected to take toll on GM sales

By Greg Migliore
Automotive News / August 25, 2005

http://www.autonews.com/news.cms?newsId=13151

DETROIT -- A summer of offering employee discounts to the public has cleared out plenty of 2005 models for the Big 3 -- a fact that will likely dent General Motors' sales for August, analysts say.

Analysts expect Ford Motor Co. and the Chrysler group to post sales gains for August, as both automakers kept their employee discount programs for a second month.

But August was the third month of the sales program for GM, which the automaker applied to most of its 2005 models. And with the number of '05 models left on dealership lots dwindling, analysts predict GM will post a sales decline for August.

Morgan Stanley's Jonathan Steinmetz and Edmunds.com's Jesse Toprak forecast that GM's August sales will be down about 5 percent. Burnham Securities analyst David Healy, who has been consistently critical of employee pricing, foresees GM's sales will decline about 18 percent for the month.

Automakers report August sales on Sept. 1.

GM tweaked its strategy on Thursday, extending the Employee Discount for Everyone campaign until Sept. 30 but also making some 2006-model full-sized pickups and SUVs eligible for the discount.

With GM's move to include some 2006 trucks, Edmunds.com's Toprak expects Ford and Chrysler to follow suit.

"This is a clever way for GM to draw consumers' attention back to its brand and particularly to its less fuel-efficient vehicles," he said.

Toprak expects big gains for Ford in August, forecasting a 28 percent gain from August 2004. Healy expects Ford's sales to rise about 7 percent, while Steinmetz sees a 2.8 percent increase for the month.

Chrysler's August sales could rise 20 percent for August, Toprak says. Other analysts see smaller gains -- Healy predicts 4 percent, and Steinmetz expects 1 percent.

Toyota also is expected to post significant gains for the month. Toprak says the automaker could see gains of 33 percent for August, while Healy expects a gain of as much as 15 percent.

Toprak also forecasts big gains for Honda, 28 percent, and Nissan, 33 percent. He foresees overall vehicle sales for August to rise 14.8 percent to more than 1.63 million units.

Analysts see August's seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate to be 17.2 million to 17.3 million vehicles.

[Matt276]

If it's true that Toyota-Nissan-Honda post 30% increase, the Domestics are pretty much dead.

[Newbiewar]

yea we are completely sold out of some cars and our selection is all out of wack... no wonder GM is doing so horribly this month

[balthazar]

If it's true that Toyota-Nissan-Honda post 30% increase, the Domestics are pretty much dead.

Check the article again: the "analyst's" numbers are all over the place (Ford: 28% to 2.8 %???). When "experts" disagree so markedly, you might as well use Dial-A-Physic to figure out what's going to happen.

>>"...analyst David Healy, who has been consistently critical of employee pricing, foresees GM's sales will decline about 18 percent for the month"<<
:rolleyes:

[RBB]

I'm not sure I understand this article. Selling a lot of cars is a bad thing? Lowering inventory of an outgoing model is detrimental to business? I know month-to-month numbers may slip a bit as the excess inventory dwindles, but I look at the last few months as very positive from a sales perspective, and with the '06 models MSRPs priced closer to actual transaction amount, there's no reason to expect a sales slump. -RBB

[VenSeattle]

If it's true that Toyota-Nissan-Honda post 30% increase, the Domestics are pretty much dead.

[post="4645"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

They didn't come close:

Toyota: 9.5%
Nissan: 10.6%
Honda: 18.6%

you really have to wonder who their sources are... or if they even have any. There's no excuse for being off by this much in their predictions if they have reliable resources.

[FUTURE_OF_GM]

They didn't come close:

Toyota: 9.5%
Nissan: 10.6%
Honda: 18.6%

you really have to wonder who their sources are... or if they even have any. There's no excuse for being off by this much in their predictions if they have reliable resources.

[post="7899"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Their sources= The Toyota Kool-Aid that everyone else has been drinking.

(Too bad it isn't spiked like that Heaven's Gate kool-aid was <_< )

[balthazar]

you really have to wonder who their sources are... or if they even have any. There's no excuse for being off by this much in their predictions if they have reliable resources.

Jesus; they're auto 'journalists, Ven: they don't EVER do any research!!
I believe they think the "auto" portion of their job description means someone else, somewhere else is doing their research for them and somehow it'll magically appear in the article right before press time.