Toyota's Onslaught

[sciguy_0504]

This is the year of Hurricane Katrina; in the car business 2006 will be the year of Hurricane Toyota. Expect a storm of vehicles with potential to do incredible damage, and not just to General Motors and Ford. Honda and Nissan could be hurt, and the smaller Japanese companies--Subaru, Mazda, Isuzu, Suzuki, Mitsubishi--are particularly vulnerable because they don't have the marketing power to fight back. Even the Germans could be hurt. The new vehicles I'm talking about are coming out in the next 12 months, but we'll see their effect in 2007. Indeed, by the end of 2007 Toyota could pass DaimlerChrysler and even be challenging Ford as the second-largest seller of cars in the U.S.

Toyota will expand its manufacturing capacity here even more. Right now one new Toyota assembly plant is being built in Texas for big pickup trucks. Another will be built in Canada for sport utilities. The automaker says it needs more engine and transmission capacity, and I expect that by 2007 there will be another assembly plant announcement. Will Toyota take over one of the plants General Motors or Ford is abandoning? Why should it, when governments will give any car company hundreds of millions in tax breaks, construction help and employee training, to build new plants?

Of course I could be overestimating Toyota's potential. All these new Toyotas, or some of them, might arrive with a thud. Maybe the dollar will fall to 100 yen, where it belongs, instead of the 119 it's worth now; an overvalued dollar, of course, makes yen-priced products like cars and car parts too cheap, giving Japan an enormous advantage. Maybe the new cars will cannibalize sales of the older vehicles. Maybe the new General Motors cars and trucks will surprise us with their glamour and sales appeal. Yes, it's possible. But get long odds if you are going to bet against Toyota.

Look at the lineup coming over the next 12 months.

• A new RAV4. That's the original little SUV; but this one, due soon, grows long enough for a third seat row and heavy enough to warrant an optional V-6 at 269hp as an alternative to the 166hp four-cylinder engine. Toyota sells 70,000 of the old RAV4s a year. I figure Toyota will double that number with these new vehicles. This will squeeze Honda's CR-V and Ford's Escape, maybe even the Jeep Liberty.

• The Yaris. This is a small, high-mileage car, sold in Europe and Japan now. There will be a two-door hatchback only 150 inches long. That is shorter than it sounds--only 6 inches longer than the BMW Mini. Toyota will also have a four-door sedan of more normal length, at 14 feet. Small cars have not done well in America. Toyota's last, the Echo, was no success. But the Big Three of Japan--Toyota, Nissan and Honda--are tossing these small cars into the market next year. The Yaris will come out first in the spring. Maybe the gasoline price shock of 2005 will spur their sales. Figure 70,000 full-year sales for this new Toyota, conservatively.

• A new Camry, out this spring. The Camry, built in Kentucky, is America's bestselling car, at 400,000 or so units this year. But the car testers at Motor Trend and Car and Driver rate it behind Honda's Accord, Ford's new Fusion and even Hyundai's Sonata. I expect big improvements next year, including a six-cylinder engine delivering extra horsepower, to help Toyota hold to its number one spot.

• A Camry hybrid. Coming next fall, the bestselling car gets a hybrid version with a four-cylinder gasoline engine plus the electric motor. Mileage could top 40 per gallon. Maybe 40,000 added sales.

• The FJ. A new SUV with a military Hummer-like look but normal size and normal price, probably in the $25,000-and-under territory. Likely to be very popular, maybe 50,000 full-year sales. Comes in the spring.

• A new Tundra pickup, and a new plant, too, next fall. I figure this will add 150,000 sales here in 2007.

Together this comes to 400,000 in added sales, and I'm not counting the Lexus division, which just added new IS models and has new cars coming next year, such as the ES sedan, a new LS luxury model and a hybrid GS luxury model.

I figure Toyota has the potential for adding 2.5 to 3 percentage points of market share, pushing the company past 16%. By then Toyota also could be the number one car builder in the world, but I think what happens in the American market is more important. It's still where our jobs are, and it's where the profits are.

You think things are tough now for the Big Three?

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/1226/100..._requestid=4557

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

what a jerk

[Northstar]

How does he think the RAV4, new Camry, FJ, Yaris, and Tundra are going to add 400k? That's a ton of added sales.

The RAV4 will do well, but I don't think it's going to add more than 50k units over the current one. The new Camry may add sales, but I find it hard to believe that it will grow very much considering it already sells close to 450k units a year. I think the FJ will sell pretty well, but I really don't see it setting the sales chart on fire. The Yaris is ugly, and I don't see it doing any better than 50k/units a year. The Tundra could add significant volume, but it's going to have some damn good competition from the current F-150 and GMT900 pickups. Plus it's in the one segment where Toyota doesn't have so many loyal buyers. How does he figure it's going to sell 150k more units per year when it doesn't even sell 150k units right now? That's a bit optimistic.

[pow]

The introduction of the RAV4 will probably cannibalize Highlander sales.

[Flybrian]

I don't see the Yaris making any increase over the Echo. Like the Echo, its ugly - uglier even - and the market for mainstream subcompacts has always been fickle in this country. Scions and MINIs are the exception because they stand out in some way with unique styling or premium performance driven by heritage, respectively.

Yaris is simply there and when put up against far more normal-looking cars in its segment like Aveo, Fit, and Nissan's whatever as well as 'small' category cars that offer alot more comfort for little economical sacrifice, its hard to justify a prediction of the Yaris being a success.

[sciguy_0504]

No car small car looks normal.

[Cadillacfan]

Wow.. How much did Toyota promise him to write that piece of advertising disguised as an article? Sad.. There actually used to be objective journalists out there. Now everyone has an agenda.

[enzl]

Flint is generally an idiot, but he may not be far off. Interesting that Toyota has gotten a free pass when a significant portion of their new plants will be building SUVs and big Pickups...what happens if those products are not received well by the marketplace? (see Canton's Nissan line-up: Quest, Titan, Armada & QX56) I think we may see a 400k increase, but I see the Hybrids, Avalon, the Scion trio, RAV4 & the Lexus IS taking much bigger parts than the new truck lines.

[siegen]

:bowdown: TOYOTA Just playin... :Toyota:

[mustang84]

It seems like we can't go a week anymore without some Ghengis Kahn piece about Toyota. Either just let it happen or GM needs start putting out some class-leading products...anything to shut up fools like Jerry Flint. How many times is it possible to beat a dead horse before there's nothing left to beat?

[VenSeattle]

It seems like we can't go a week anymore without some Ghengis Kahn piece about Toyota.  Either just let it happen or GM needs start putting out some class-leading products...anything to shut up fools like Jerry Flint.

How many times is it possible to beat a dead horse before there's nothing left to beat?

[post="55640"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

It takes the horse disappearing entirely so they can all mourn at the funeral and speak greatly of its history and accomplishments... oh, and write articles upon heaping articles about how they'll REALLY miss it. :rolleyes: :angry: :(

[ehaase]

As much as I wish that things would improve for GM, Jerry Flint did not write one thing in his article that appears incorrect to me.

[balthazar]

Flint is an old fool who's pseudo-coherant ramblings are largely based on opinions formed in the 1980s. I can no longer subject myself to point-by-point analysis of his 'journalism' for mental health reasons, but one thing that jumped out at me from skimming above is he likely has his camry hybrid & tundra projections reversed: hybrids continue to gain in 'buzz' while the tundra's claim to fame is it's lack of choices and lack of power- no way is capacity holding that turkey back. After 15 years of lame uncompetitive product, no consumers in the segment are holding their breath for the next tundra, either. Edited December 9, 2005 by balthazar

[91z4me]

No car small car looks normal.

[post="55534"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

I have noticed that too. Why is it that when cars become smaller the designs get weirder?

Why can't someone make a smaller Fusion that doesn't look smooshed or distorted?

[sciguy_0504]

MT test drove the new Yaris sedan and while the review isn't that positive it looks a hell of a lot better than the Echo and, arguably, any other small car out there. Still looks weird, though. I still wouldn't purchase a new car that cheap. A nice, used midsize car fits the bill perfectly.

[SingleStylish]

Flint is an old fool who's pseudo-coherant ramblings are largely based on opinions formed in the 1980s.
I can no longer subject myself to point-by-point analysis of his 'journalism' for mental health reasons, but one thing that jumped out at me from skimming above is he likely has his camry hybrid & tundra projections reversed: hybrids continue to gain in 'buzz' while the tundra's claim to fame is it's lack of choices and lack of power- no way is capacity holding that turkey back. After 15 years of lame uncompetitive product, no consumers in the segment are holding their breath for the next tundra, either.

[post="55690"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

While I agree about Tundra sales being mediocre now... Toyota must be really egotistical because they now have a total of 350,000 Tundra capacity with 200k in San Antonio alone. They plan on building the HD Tundra in San Antonio. I wouldn't count the Tundra out but, my hopes aren't really high either.

Mark my words though... Toyota's new Tundra WILL BE COMPETITIVE in all respects... desirable?! Questionable!

[balthazar]

They don't seem to understand the segment at all. With the money they have they should have a full lineup ramped up & running already: 6-cyl, V-8, turbodiesels, multiple cab & bed configurations, trim levels, a ladder of tonnage capacities... instead theres practically nothing. Dodge was in almost the same position in '93 with a dried-up line-up and nowhere sales. They blazed out of the gates so hard in '94 that it shook up the entire segment and they're a major player once again. THAT's what toyota needs to do to at least gain a toehold in the market vs. the compeition and consumer perception, but they're dragging their heels: the segment has already peaked and everyone including nissan has a better truck on the lots.

[evok]

I assure you, Flint's assesment of Toyota is no joke.

[evok]

They don't seem to understand the segment at all. With the money they have they should have a full lineup ramped up & running already: 6-cyl, V-8, turbodiesels, multiple cab & bed configurations, trim levels, a ladder of tonnage capacities... instead theres practically nothing.

[post="55802"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Who says they won't.

[BrewSwillis]

What's the big deal. I didn't learn anything new from this article. Toyota uses currency maniulation to gain market share. We knew this for a long time. What else.....they have a bunch of new vehicles coming up. Well yeah, alot of them are old and outdated. Trucks? They will be class leading just like the Titan, and it will be the end of domestics trucks as we know it. :rolleyes: Riiiight.

[regfootball]

what a jerk

[post="55503"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

lance, have you met sheryl crow?

[regfootball]

Yaris- its ugly and only has 1.5 under the hood. the rio, accent, and aveo are all cheaper. anyone wanting a quality built small car will step up to the larger compacts and subcompacts. Plus, the dash. And, we have the Xa already which has not lit up the charts. All that spells 'not a runaway hit' FJ- it will do well intially, but i can't even see it outselling Elements or some Jeeps etc. over the long haul. tundra- they lack all the combos that make the domestics so popular. plus, the loyalty for domestics is incredible. and they may take as many Titan sales as anything. if they add 75k sales vs. now I'll be surprised. Ford and GM will fight this one to the death, and will probably win. if toyota gets cocky with trucks, that could be what spurs the anti-japan backlash en masse. the camry although new i do not see tremendous % growth for them because there is so much other competition. just because they put out a new does not mean a 20% increase. there is NO ONE waiting with baited breath for a new camry. its a commodity. the RAV will cannabalize the highlander as well as get plenty of new sales and i see the RAV as being the biggest gainer. detroit will incentivize their competitors, but the toyota buzzkill will pay off here. thing is, a newer highlander must be a year away or so. it seems like the RAV in v6 form may be a bit high priced compared to what you can get for little more in a Pilot or Endeavor, both of which are bigger. where he pulls his sales gains from, i don't know. Edited December 9, 2005 by regfootball

[Whistler]

The introduction of the RAV4 will probably cannibalize Highlander sales.

[post="55521"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

The Highlander is just about finished... its very old by Toyota standards.

From what I understand, the next Rav4 is taking over the midsize SUV role, and the Highlander will become a large crossover (think Lambda) in its next redesign.

[Petra]

[quote]Of course I could be overestimating Toyota's potential. All these new Toyotas, or some of them, might arrive with a thud.[/quote]

You can say that again, Flintlock. Let us, indeed, look at the lineup coming over the next 12 months:

[quote]• A new RAV4. That's the original little SUV; but this one, due soon, grows long enough for a third seat row and heavy enough to warrant an optional V-6 at 269hp as an alternative to the 166hp four-cylinder engine. Toyota sells 70,000 of the old RAV4s a year. I figure Toyota will double that number with these new vehicles. This will squeeze Honda's CR-V and Ford's Escape, maybe even the Jeep Liberty.[/quote]

I seriously doubt Toyota will sell 140,000 RAV4's a year. Unless they advertise the heck out of it, I just don't see drawing in that many buyers. It seems to me that the compact SUV market has peaked, in no small part because everything that made the "Cute Utes" a success in the first place (cute styling, compact size, frugal, 4-cylinder power) has all but dissapeared. I'd say 100,000 a year in the first year is far more plausible. Also, don't forget that the RAV4 is now cannibalizing Highlander sales, so, while sales of the RAV4 will rise, sales of the Highlander will tank.

[quote]• The Yaris. This is a small, high-mileage car, sold in Europe and Japan now. There will be a two-door hatchback only 150 inches long. That is shorter than it sounds--only 6 inches longer than the BMW Mini. Toyota will also have a four-door sedan of more normal length, at 14 feet. Small cars have not done well in America. Toyota's last, the Echo, was no success. But the Big Three of Japan--Toyota, Nissan and Honda--are tossing these small cars into the market next year. The Yaris will come out first in the spring. Maybe the gasoline price shock of 2005 will spur their sales. Figure 70,000 full-year sales for this new Toyota, conservatively.[/quote]

70,000+ Yaris' a year? Not in the States. The ECHO proved that Americans just don't want subcompact cars right now. The Boomers don't want a tiny tinbox of a car, they want something to show off their wealth. Gen. Xers (that is, people in their late 20's to late 30's right now) want a car that will be practical for their families, yet will also show their rising social & economic status. Lastly, my demographic, Gen. Y, simply cannot afford to buy a new car, or, if they can, would not buy a lame subcompact like the Yaris, and would instead choose a SCION. Really, about the only people I can see the Yaris selling to are seniors who don't have much money to spend and are tight as ticks with it, or people of various ages who are simply frugal. And I don't think Toyota is going to find 70,000 of them. While I don't think the Yaris will be as big a flop as the ECHO was, it will still be a sales flop. Trust me on this one.

[quote]• A new Camry, out this spring. The Camry, built in Kentucky, is America's bestselling car, at 400,000 or so units this year. But the car testers at Motor Trend and Car and Driver rate it behind Honda's Accord, Ford's new Fusion and even Hyundai's Sonata. I expect big improvements next year, including a six-cylinder engine delivering extra horsepower, to help Toyota hold to its number one spot.[/quote]

The Camry has been Toyota's ace in the hole for the last decade or so, but they've reached a point where they simply can't sell any more of them. 400,000 seems to be the breaking point. In fact, the only way I could see the Camry gaining any sales would be because of the...

[quote]• A Camry hybrid. Coming next fall, the bestselling car gets a hybrid version with a four-cylinder gasoline engine plus the electric motor. Mileage could top 40 per gallon. Maybe 40,000 added sales.[/quote]

...even then, I expect that a good chunk of Camry Hybrid buyers will be people who would have bought a V6 Camry otherwise, but are sold on the idea of V6 power and i4 frugality. I don't see the Accord Hybrid increasing Accord sales by leaps and bounds. It's because most of the people who are buying them are traditional Accord buyers who are saving up a few thousand more for the Hybrid version.

[quote]• The FJ. A new SUV with a military Hummer-like look but normal size and normal price, probably in the $25,000-and-under territory. Likely to be very popular, maybe 50,000 full-year sales. Comes in the spring.[/quote]

Like reg said, initial sales could be high, but I don't see this thing sticking around for long, at least on the sales charts. They will be sticking around, unwanted, on dealer lots for ages. Once the initial rush wears off, you'll never hear from the FJ again, and Toyota will probably just quietly kill it. The downside? Pretty much all sales of the FJ will be added volume, as it won't steal sales away from any other model (maybe the 4Runner), and it's pretty much a unique vehicle, style-wise.

[quote]• A new Tundra pickup, and a new plant, too, next fall. I figure this will add 150,000 sales here in 2007.[/quote]

I really don't know what to think about this one. Toyota has been very adamant about how well this vehicle will do... Look at how many times they've announced that they will increase production at the factory, even though it hasn't opened yet. Then again, Nissan was adamant about how well the Titan was supposed to do, and we all know how that turned out. Also, the timing is totally off, with gasoline prices soaring (though I fear this will haunt the GMT-900's, too). In the end, I think it is very unlikely that Toyota will sell 250,000 Tundras a year as Flint predicts. I think they might experience a slight sales bump, say, 150,000/year, but that will be it, and sales will fall back down to current levels (100K/year, give or take) before long. Maybe I just really want to see Toyota shoot themselves in the foot here, but it seems more plausible than the Tundra becoming a huge hit, IMO.


So, all things considered, I'll predict that 2006 will be yet another year of Toyota sales moving forward (pun intended) at a slow, death march pace, while GM sales continue to slide backward, also at a slow, death march pace. Inevitably, Toyota will catch and surpass GM. However, unless GM sales take a huge dive bomb, I don't think it will happen in '06. Give it a few more years yet.

[Guest gmrebirth]

I think some of you simply wish Toyota would do bad, and some of you definitely want to see Toyota shoot itself in the foot. I assure you, his estimations, which may not be fully accurate, generally are on the ball. For example: The Ford Escape sells about 150K a year, so why can't the Rav 4? The Ford Escape has nothing on the Rav 4 anyways, excluding the hybrid model. I expect Toyota's biggest sales gain to come from the Tundra. Edited December 10, 2005 by gmrebirth

[balthazar]

Who says they won't.

I do.
Now... who can explain why they haven't?

[sciguy_0504]

Gotta love the kool-aid drinkers. Petra, in one paragraph you blast the availability of a Toyota subcompact and then in another you wonder why anyone (like GM?) would bring a brand-new truck to market due to high gas prices. What do you want? The next-gen Highlander will move up in size to compete with the Lambda's. On the outset the Rav4 might take sales away from it but once everything is said and done there will be two seperate crossovers. At least the "stolen" sales stay within the company. I really don't know why this is so hard to understand. I could see the next-gen Camry easily attaining 500,000 sales with the hybrid model. The Camry hybrid is not going to be the V6 power with I4 fuel consumption method that Honda used on the Accord hybrid, at least in the beginning. The Camry hybrid will have 192 net horsepower so it's more in line with the economical method Toyota used for the Prius. With rollercoaster gas prices this will help sales. Some people would love to have the Prius but don't like it's styling or wagon-esque setup. We'll see if your predictions about the FJ come true but it's not your normal Toyota and will attract a lot of attention, especially if rappers and sports stars get ahold of it (if they can like the Commander, they can like this). People will come to the Toyota showroom looking for the FJ and leave with something totally different. The 300 effect. Rumors are everywhere about the next-gen Tundra, from HD models to size to configuration. Toyota is not going to build a new plant just to put out another T100 or current Tundra mistake. You may not like them but they're not that stupid. Like you guys have said, we'll see.

[regfootball]

there are simply too many sedans out there for ANY one of them to sell half a million. especially a boring looking one. regardless of rep or a new engine, there is a limit to how many consumer reports readers and dull folks there are out there. I would not be surprised if the new camry hits, sales go up for 6 months or year, but them they go down to where they are now or even lose some. Edited December 10, 2005 by regfootball

[evok]

Who says they won't.

I do.

[post="56054"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

And soon you will be proven wrong. Edited December 10, 2005 by evok

[balthazar]

Like I was wrong about the titan?? Let's not miss an opportunity to dwell on & beat-to-death the recent past (and in turn completely condemn the future), as is the ubiquitous practice with GM discussions: Why has toyota produced 15 years of completely uncompetitive trucks when they make 75% of their global profit in the same market the best trucks in the industry are built? Is it deliberate?

[CARBIZ]

It does make you wonder, though.....

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

lance, have you met sheryl crow?

[post="55917"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

was she in gladiator?

[Petra]

Petra, in one paragraph you blast the availability of a Toyota subcompact and then in another you wonder why anyone (like GM?) would bring a brand-new truck to market due to high gas prices.  What do you want?

I never said anything about what I want. From what I've observed, however, the general public does not want subcompacts and are finished with trucks.

The next-gen Highlander will move up in size to compete with the Lambda's.  On the outset the Rav4 might take sales away from it but once everything is said and done there will be two seperate crossovers.  At least the "stolen" sales stay within the company.  I really don't know why this is so hard to understand.

Point taken. Seeing as how we don't know anything about the next Highlander, I'm not going to make predictions. Once again, however, I will say that the short-term gain in RAV4 sales will not add up to much of a net gain once lost Highlander sales are factored in. By the time the Highlander is redesigned, RAV4 sales will have naturally peaked, anyway.

I just don't see the RAV4 being a contender. Toyota's SUVs, even the truly world-class, world-famous ones like the 4Runner and Land Cruiser, have never been big winners in the sales department. That is my opinion, and it's worth exactly what you paid for it.

I could see the next-gen Camry easily attaining 500,000 sales with the hybrid model.  The Camry hybrid is not going to be the V6 power with I4 fuel consumption method that Honda used on the Accord hybrid, at least in the beginning.  The Camry hybrid will have 192 net horsepower so it's more in line with the economical method Toyota used for the Prius. With rollercoaster gas prices this will help sales. Some people would love to have the Prius but don't like it's styling or wagon-esque setup.

192 horsepower isn't V6 power? Seems to me that it wasn't so long ago V6 engines struggled to surpass 200 horses. Family sedans with V6s in the 240 horsepower range are a very recent phenomenon. Furthermore, I can't think of any 4-cylinder motors with 190+ horses that aren't forced-induction or very high-strung (e.g: Acura RSX). I don't think Toyota will be able to produce enough Hybrid Camrys, but, much like the Prius, I think that will have more to do with limited supply. And I still think most of the people who buy the Hybrid Camry will be traditional Camry buyers, therefore negating sales gains to a signifigant degree. Once again, my opinion, worth what you paid for it.

We'll see if your predictions about the FJ come true but it's not your normal Toyota and will attract a lot of attention, especially if rappers and sports stars get ahold of it (if they can like the Commander, they can like this).  People will come to the Toyota showroom looking for the FJ and leave with something totally different.  The 300 effect.

I just don't see the FJ having much staying power. It may burn bright for a few months, but it will quickly be forgotten. As for "The 300 effect", I will admit that it is possible, but I see a dire lack of any other products in the Toyota showroom that would be attractive to the FJ's demographic. I'm sure every 30 year-old male who walks into the Toyota showroom looking for an FJ will be totally stunned by the Avalon sitting across the floor.

Rumors are everywhere about the next-gen Tundra, from HD models to size to configuration.  Toyota is not going to build a new plant just to put out another T100 or current Tundra mistake.  You may not like them but they're not that stupid.

Doubling or tripling sales is not the Toyota way. They take it slow and steady. Will the new Tundra pick up 50,000 to 100,000 more sales? That's absolutely plausible. But 300,000 sales? Not bloody likely. Also, remember what I said about the RAV4: Toyota trucks, even the ones that are/were serious contenders, have never been much of a sales success. I don't see that trend ceasing anytime soon. Edited December 10, 2005 by Petra

[regfootball]

was she in gladiator?

[post="56290"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

i figured since you were lance's testicles and she is his better half, i figured maybe you were well acquainted with her hotness. :CG_all:

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

i figured since you were lance's testicles and she is his better half, i figured maybe you were well acquainted with her hotness. :CG_all:

[post="56493"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

oh yeah.. their .. uh I .. am in her mouth, my pubic hairs and loose scrotum have tapped into her brain so I can view this GM forum and post :AH-HA_wink: .

[regfootball]

oh yeah.. their .. uh I .. am in her mouth, my pubic hairs and loose scrotum have tapped into her brain so I can view this GM forum and post  :AH-HA_wink: .

[post="56761"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

LOL

[El Scorcho]

oh yeah.. their .. uh I .. am in her mouth, my pubic hairs and loose scrotum have tapped into her brain so I can view this GM forum and post  :AH-HA_wink: .

[post="56761"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Wow.

[Sixty8panther]

WTF just happened here? :unsure:

[regfootball]

[regfootball]

maybe someday we'll have to get a sheryl crow shrine going -in the lounge. Edited December 12, 2005 by regfootball

[Guest gmrebirth]

there are simply too many sedans out there for ANY one of them to sell half a million.  especially a boring looking one.  regardless of rep or a new engine, there is a limit to how many consumer reports readers and dull folks there are out there.  I would not be surprised if the new camry hits, sales go up for 6 months or  year, but them they go down to where they are now or even lose some.

[post="56101"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

The current Camry is dated, and about to be replaced, yet it's sales are UP compared to last year. It's on track this year to sell about 430,000. Most estimates peg the new hybrid model to add 50,000 annual units. So taking the current 2005 annual sales, that puts it to 480,000. Besides, seeing as this is the new Camry which will be improved in several ways, it's not that hard to see how it can reach 500,000.

[Guest gmrebirth]

Like I was wrong about the titan??

Let's not miss an opportunity to dwell on & beat-to-death the recent past (and in turn completely condemn the future), as is the ubiquitous practice with GM discussions:

Why has toyota produced 15 years of completely uncompetitive trucks when they make 75% of their global profit in the same market the best trucks in the industry are built? Is it deliberate?

[post="56247"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Completely uncompetitive? Well ... the Tundra is the FIRST real effort at trying to penetrate the fullsize market. I don't count any of the previous trucks as real efforts into the fullsize market. Seeing as how truck owners are very loyal, and that the Tundra is Toyota's first real try, they're not doing THAT bad.

Oh, and last time I checked (as of Nov. 2005), the Tacoma was the best selling midsize truck on the market. That doesn't exactly seem as "uncompetitive" to me.

Uncompetitive in trucks, that would go to Honda.

[siegen]

Uncompetitive in trucks, that would go to Honda.

[post="57316"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

Uncompetitive in what segment? They aren't competing against full size trucks like Toyota is with their Tundra.

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

Uncompetitive in what segment? They aren't competing against full size trucks like Toyota is with their Tundra.

[post="57579"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

but they are making claims against the F150 w/ that stupid heap

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

maybe someday we'll have to get a sheryl crow shrine going -in the lounge.

[post="57289"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

well, just wait till you hear how we really hooked up :AH-HA_wink:

[siegen]

but they are making claims against the F150 w/ that stupid heap

[post="57613"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

What claims? Looks like they're marketting it against trucks like these:

* 2006 Nissan Frontier Crew Cab SE 4X4
* 2006 Toyota Tacoma 4X4 Double Cab V6 Automatic
* 2006 Dodge Dakota Quad Cab 4X4 ST
* 2005 Ford Explorer Sport Trac 4X4 XLS
* 2006 Chevrolet Colorado Crew Cab 4WD LT1
* 2006 Chevrolet Avalanche 1500 4WD

If you go to Honda's site and click Compare, those are the trucks Honda selects as "Similar Vehicles" to compare to.

Anyways, not to convert this thread into another Ridgeline debate... :Toyota:

[Guest lance armstrong's Testicles]

No i wont, i have better things to do than talk to the likes of you.

[siegen]

192 horsepower isn't V6 power? Seems to me that it wasn't so long ago V6 engines struggled to surpass 200 horses. Family sedans with V6s in the 240 horsepower range are a very recent phenomenon. Furthermore, I can't think of any 4-cylinder motors with 190+ horses that aren't forced-induction or very high-strung (e.g: Acura RSX).

Times change quickly, and there is a horsepower war going on between every Asian manufacturer thats heating up pretty quick. It appears as though 192 is definitely not V6 power anymore (at least in the media's eyes), and they all make 240+ like you said. A lot of the domestic manufacturers are still in the low 200's with their V6's though (with the exception of some HO engines like the Chev 3.9L V6) , due to the design of the engine and powerband placement. This is not bad, and is actually good for daily driving (how often do these cars get above 5krpms?). The peak TQ occurs earlier, which increases low RPM acceleration, but the engines don't breathe as well in the higher RPM's and the TQ drops off (even with VVT mechanisms, there is still a sacrifice), so they attain lower peak HP numbers (which is a big deal with the media).

And those high strung 200hp 4 cyl motors aren't even that high strung anymore (TSX comes to mind).

No i wont, i have better things to do than talk to the likes of you.

Wow, if that isn't the definition of imature I don't know what is. :metal:

[turbo200]

Generally, I tend to believe Toyota doesn't usually set the sales chart on fire with their new entrants, even though they are highly competitive. Aside from the Corolla and Camry, they have a history of having many models that do well enough, but usually are overshadowed by the domestics. In the last year Toyota has had successes that have gone against that trend. Avalon, Scion TC, and Tacoma are all experiencing great sales in thier first years on the market. This is troubling and foreboding of their upcoming sales successes. That said, I hope the Yaris isn't a success, and could prove to not be one for the very reasons Petra posted. The Yaris may prove to be a very good car, which would end up making it worthy, but Toyota fans don't seem to be too interested in a very small car. Chevy fans like cheap cars, and so the Aveo does well. I don't see it doing much better than Aveo. Rav4 is currently selling 65k units. If the price is right around the Equinox I could see it doing real damage. The great thing is the exterior still prevents me from ever wanting to be seen driving one, which I think many agree with. The bad thing is they're damn good cars, which will convince many to overlook that glaring fact. The good thing is usually Toyota's are priced higher than the competition. Rav4 could easily sell 150k units, but at the cost of Highlander sales obviously. Camry is only ahead of last year's sales by 7k units; it's a solidly engineered car and will always have positive sales. I don't see it increasing to 500k units easily, especially with all the competition from the Fusions, Aura, redesined Accord, etc. As Petra mentioned, the accord hybrid is only adding around 1-2k units per month, and Honda actually recently put some incentive on it, yes it's minimal. I see people who normally would have opted for the V6 getting the hybrid instead. Given the campaign against hybrids in the media these days, I don't see a tremendous effect, like adding 70k sales. Yes I said against, note the increasing reports about hybrids not being worth the money, customers have become savvy about this, and hybrid consumers would be pretty savvy people to begin with. As much as the Tundra will assuredly be dominant, advertising will be everywhere and creative, and the proliferation of available configurations; I don't forsee it gaining 200k sales at the cost of the domestics. GM will have new trucks next year, and if they are styled right, they will be massive successes. GM's new interiors are finally worthy, the engines are better than anyone, with better fuel economy, and GM will have the numbers against Toyota, so hopefully they will be willing to flout that in head to head comparisons against Tundra. Silverado is GM's most important vehicle, I am confident they are readying heavy marketing for it. The style of it, will to me, be its most important factor for success. The current Chevy trucks still have attractive presences, but the bodies look straight out of the '90's. GM hopefully has made somehting with a little bit of flair, even the Tacoma's body has some lines to it, and is overall very modern looking. FJ might add 50k sales. It's a 4runner 5-seater right? It's meant for even more serious off-roading [like the 4-runner wasn't already well-known for this] with a very cool body. I can't see too many young guys going for it. This market is already stretched too thin, and Hummer's got it cornered. That is who they're going after in price? Hummer's exclusivity and image will have it over Toyota, and their design is better, imo. The Toyota is cool, but has a tinny feel to it completely absent in the Hummer.

[Guest gmrebirth]

What claims? Looks like they're marketting it against trucks like these:

    * 2006 Nissan Frontier Crew Cab SE 4X4
    * 2006 Toyota Tacoma 4X4 Double Cab V6 Automatic
    * 2006 Dodge Dakota Quad Cab 4X4 ST
    * 2005 Ford Explorer Sport Trac 4X4 XLS
    * 2006 Chevrolet Colorado Crew Cab 4WD LT1
    * 2006 Chevrolet Avalanche 1500 4WD

If you go to Honda's site and click Compare, those are the trucks Honda selects as "Similar Vehicles" to compare to.

Anyways, not to convert this thread into another Ridgeline debate...  :Toyota:

[post="57631"]<{POST_SNAPBACK}>[/post]

I wasn't specifically referring to full size trucks though.

Even compared to the Tacoma or Colorado, the Ridgeline is uncompetitive. I mean Honda is reducing production for it, because demand is low.

The Ridgeline is not a bad truck for light duty, or for those who just want a utility vehicle around the city. It's just not as tough or truck-like as it's competition. Edited December 13, 2005 by gmrebirth